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Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:46 pm
by Bird on a Fire
lpm wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:58 am
It would be fabulous news if we could make it the greatest cause of death. Mean we'll have cured cancer, Alzheimer's and flu.
Covid's already overtaken cancer and flu in those statistics. (Although it's the worst year ever for bird flu (mostly birds but also scavenging mammals infected so far, so we could be in for a surprise late entrant.) And ultimately covid's going to stop a lot of people getting Alzheimer's.

I don't think it's scaremongering to say that covid's added a new high-scorer to the league table, after many decades' success of removing them.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
by lpm
That's pandemic Covid, hitting a world with no immunity.

Endemic Covid has a different fatality rate, facing a population with several jabs and 2 or 3 prior infections.

There will be bad years, as there are for flu, and you and I might well die from it eventually. It's in the Premier League, but no longer competitive for the stop spots.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:21 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Well it was in the top 3 in April. Seems to be competing just fine.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:44 pm
by lpm
It's not endemic yet. Still in transition.

I've never had it (at least not symptomatic / tested positive). None of my elderly relatives have had it. Our little virus friend still has plenty of vaccinated people to meet for the first time, plus a few unvaccinated.

Wait 10 years. It's only going one way - down the charts.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:14 pm
by Herainestold
It will be interesting to see how it affects life expectancy.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:11 am
by Martin_B
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:14 pm
It will be interesting to see how it affects life expectancy.
You have a different definition of "interesting" to me

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:59 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Martin_B wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:11 am
Herainestold wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:14 pm
It will be interesting to see how it affects life expectancy.
You have a different definition of "interesting" to me
You're not interested in how it affects life expectancy?

I think we really don't know at this stage whether it'll be non-negligible, and I've stopped looking out for models (because a lot of them are depressing, as well as interesting). But if we end up in a situation where most people get infected every few years, I'd take a punt on that at least shortening the right tail of the age distribution, especially when variants that avoid the vaccine become prominent. Loss of QALYs from long covid is probably way more relevant, though.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:37 pm
by lpm
The economic damage will have the biggest impact.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:11 pm
by Sciolus
lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:37 pm
The economic damage will have the biggest impact.
Do you mean "biggest impact on stuff I care about" or "biggest impact on life expectancy" or "biggest impact on overall quality of life" or what?

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:17 pm
by KAJ
coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Updates will be weekly after Friday 1st July 2022
From Friday 1 July 2022, the COVID-19 Dashboard will move to weekly reporting. The last daily update of the Dashboard will be on Friday 1 July 2022. Weekly updates will be published every Wednesday at 4pm commencing on 6 July 2022.

Daily data up to the most recent available will continue to be added in each weekly update.

This will bring COVID-19 reporting in line with typical reporting schedules for other respiratory infections. This approach reflects the move from an emergency pandemic response to managing COVID-19 in line with the Government's Living with COVID strategy. This decision will be kept under review in the coming weeks.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:27 pm
by lpm
Sciolus wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:11 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:37 pm
The economic damage will have the biggest impact.
Do you mean "biggest impact on stuff I care about" or "biggest impact on life expectancy" or "biggest impact on overall quality of life" or what?
Life expectancy, it was replying to BoaF

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:36 pm
by plodder
lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:27 pm
Sciolus wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:11 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:37 pm
The economic damage will have the biggest impact.
Do you mean "biggest impact on stuff I care about" or "biggest impact on life expectancy" or "biggest impact on overall quality of life" or what?
Life expectancy, it was replying to BoaF
Agreed. Poverty is a big old killer, especially (but not exclusively) of poor people. Global recessions are bad news for health outcomes.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
by Herainestold
Captalism is bad for life expectancy. Capitalism and covid.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
by WFJ
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 am
by shpalman
WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
Look at health outcomes vs. health spending for the US vs. the rest of North America and Western Europe, for example. A bit of socialism is definitely a good idea as far as the health of a nation is concerned.

Of course, communism and fascism are also pretty terrible, but then Eastern Europe and Russia have terrible life expectancy in men especially due to a culture of serious alcohol abuse. And if you're not an ethnicity which the Chinese authorities approve of, for example, you're also going to have about ten years less of life expectancy .

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:09 am
by shpalman
Danny Altmann is a professor of immunology at Imperial College London and his opinion is
Contrary to the myth that we are sliding into a comfortable evolutionary relationship with a common-cold-like, friendly virus, this is more like being trapped on a rollercoaster in a horror film. There’s nothing cold-like or friendly about a large part of the workforce needing significant absences from work, feeling awful and sometimes getting reinfected over and over again, just weeks apart. And that’s before the risk of long Covid. While we now know that the risk of long Covid is somewhat reduced in those who become infected after vaccination, and also less in those from the Omicron than the Delta wave, the absolute numbers are nevertheless worrying.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:11 am
by WFJ
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 am
WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:33 pm
Captalism is bad for life expectancy.
Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
Look at health outcomes vs. health spending for the US vs. the rest of North America and Western Europe, for example. A bit of socialism is definitely a good idea as far as the health of a nation is concerned.
Sure. But that is just a comparison of a sh.t healthcare system with better healthcare systems. They all exist in capitalist countries.
Of course, communism and fascism are also pretty terrible, but then Eastern Europe and Russia have terrible life expectancy in men especially due to a culture of serious alcohol abuse. And if you're not an ethnicity which the Chinese authorities approve of, for example, you're also going to have about ten years less of life expectancy.
The move to a capitalist system in China has coincided with a steady increase in life expectancy there.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:03 am
by shpalman
WFJ wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:11 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 am
WFJ wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm

Do you have any empirical evidence for that?
Look at health outcomes vs. health spending for the US vs. the rest of North America and Western Europe, for example. A bit of socialism is definitely a good idea as far as the health of a nation is concerned.
Sure. But that is just a comparison of a sh.t healthcare system with better healthcare systems. They all exist in capitalist countries.
The country may be capitalist as a whole, but the better healthcare systems themselves are not fully capitalist.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:43 am
by WFJ
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:03 am
WFJ wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:11 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 am

Look at health outcomes vs. health spending for the US vs. the rest of North America and Western Europe, for example. A bit of socialism is definitely a good idea as far as the health of a nation is concerned.
Sure. But that is just a comparison of a sh.t healthcare system with better healthcare systems. They all exist in capitalist countries.
The country may be capitalist as a whole, but the better healthcare systems themselves are not fully capitalist.
How are you measuring how capitalist a country's healthcare system is? If it depends on how much is paid by governments through taxation then Germany's system, for example, is at least as capitalist as the US's.

The US is not the archetype of capitalism, and nor is its healthcare system. It just represents a libertarian mess of a system. It's definitely not evidence for Herainestold's claim that capitalism is bad for life expectancy.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 1:32 pm
by shpalman
UK life expectancy stopped going up in 2010-2012 or so
Figure 1_ Life expectancy in the UK in 2018 to 2020 fell to the level of 2012 to 2014 for males and was similar to 2015 to 2017 for females.png
Figure 1_ Life expectancy in the UK in 2018 to 2020 fell to the level of 2012 to 2014 for males and was similar to 2015 to 2017 for females.png (26.16 KiB) Viewed 190 times
Over the last 40 years life expectancy in the UK has been increasing, albeit at a slower pace in the last decade. This increase has been primarily because of improvements in mortality at older ages driven by advances in health care, and improvements in living and working conditions. In the latest period, 2018 to 2020, life expectancy at birth in the UK was 79.0 years for males and 82.9 years for females.

In the first decade of the 21st century, we saw improvements for males of between 42 weeks and 53 weeks, and improvements for females of between 29 weeks and 42 weeks, when comparing life expectancy at birth in one three-year period with the previous non-overlapping three-year period (Figure 2). However, in the last 10 years, improvements in life expectancy at birth have slowed. Since 2010 to 2012, the improvements for each period when compared with the previous non-overlapping period have been declining for both males and females, with the exception of 2017 to 2019 when improvements increased slightly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Unit ... l_election

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:37 am
by Herainestold
This article has been making the rounds..
The rapid appearance of more variants in ever shorter periods of time spells incalculable trouble. Many researchers now suspect some of the variants have arisen in immunocompromised patients with no real defences where mutations can evolve at hyper speed. “The possibility of SARS-CoV-2 evolving resistance to existing therapies during such infections is real,” warns Cambridge researcher Ravindra Gupta in a recent Lancet letter. “Hence, curing COVID-19 infections in immunocompromised individuals is of crucial importance as it is possible that an existing patient might harbour the next variant, a highly transmissible new variant of concern that challenges immunity and existing therapeutics.”
Meanwhile, the virus is now evolving at a rate faster than vaccine development (three waves this year alone). And the effectiveness of current vaccines are now waning. Mother Nature offers no guarantee that virus will evolve to a benign or endemic state this year or the next. Meanwhile human behaviour has increased biological risk instead of dampening it.
image atom
In real terms “living with the virus” means living with a normalization of death, reinfections, long COVID, disruption and exhausted health-care workers. People would never vote for a deteriorating quality of life and risk, but that’s where public policy is now taking us.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/04/ ... =editorial

I am stockpiling PPE, storable food and everyday medical supplies. It could be a long and grim winter.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:44 am
by Martin_B
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:37 am
I am stockpiling PPE, storable food and everyday medical supplies. It could be a long and grim winter.
Still? You made the same post 2 weeks ago: viewtopic.php?p=125352#p125352

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:43 am
by Chris Preston
It is like the people who hoarded toilet paper.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:26 pm
by tom p
WFJ wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:43 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:03 am
WFJ wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:11 am

Sure. But that is just a comparison of a sh.t healthcare system with better healthcare systems. They all exist in capitalist countries.
The country may be capitalist as a whole, but the better healthcare systems themselves are not fully capitalist.
How are you measuring how capitalist a country's healthcare system is? If it depends on how much is paid by governments through taxation then Germany's system, for example, is at least as capitalist as the US's.

The US is not the archetype of capitalism, and nor is its healthcare system. It just represents a libertarian mess of a system. It's definitely not evidence for Herainestold's claim that capitalism is bad for life expectancy.
It's certainly the archetype of the freest of free-market capitalisms, and especially so in the healthcare domain.

Re: UK covid not over

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:04 pm
by Herainestold
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:44 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:37 am
I am stockpiling PPE, storable food and everyday medical supplies. It could be a long and grim winter.
Still? You made the same post 2 weeks ago: viewtopic.php?p=125352#p125352
I have to admit I am worried.