COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:49 am

Thread on who is still dying from Covid.
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status ... 6521977860

The splits for deaths of the fully vaccinated are interesting - a return to the male/female difference we speculated about way back in Feb 2020. To a very very strong degree, Covid can now only kill the old, particularly the vulnerable old, plus immunocompromised - and those who opt in to Covid mortality by refusing the vaccine.

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What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:24 am

Interesting from the NYT,

Since the pandemic began, Covid has often followed a regular — if mysterious — cycle. In one country after another, the number of new cases has often surged for roughly two months before starting to fall. The Delta variant, despite its intense contagiousness, has followed this pattern.

[…]

We have asked experts about these two-month cycles, and they acknowledged that they could not explain it. “We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do,” Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, said.

But two broad categories of explanation seem plausible, the experts say.

One involves the virus itself. Rather than spreading until it has reached every last person, perhaps it spreads in waves that happen to follow a similar timeline. How so? Some people may be especially susceptible to a variant like Delta, and once many of them have been exposed to it, the virus starts to recede — until a new variant causes the cycle to begin again (or until a population approaches herd immunity).

The second plausible explanation involves human behavior. People don’t circulate randomly through the world. They live in social clusters, Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, points out. Perhaps the virus needs about two months to circulate through a typically sized cluster, infecting the most susceptible — and a new wave starts when people break out of their clusters, such as during a holiday. Alternately, people may follow cycles of taking more and then fewer Covid precautions, depending on their level of concern.

[…]

There have been plenty of exceptions to the two-month cycle around the world. In Brazil, caseloads have followed no evident pattern. In Britain, cases did decline about two months after the Delta peak — but only for a couple of weeks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/brie ... eload.html

raven
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Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:15 pm

The second plausible explanation involves human behavior. People don’t circulate randomly through the world. They live in social clusters, Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, points out. Perhaps the virus needs about two months to circulate through a typically sized cluster, infecting the most susceptible — and a new wave starts when people break out of their clusters, such as during a holiday. Alternately, people may follow cycles of taking more and then fewer Covid precautions, depending on their level of concern.
Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.

Social networks are granular, behaviour changes.

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:43 pm

This "two month surge" rule reminds me of the stuff that technical stock market analysts do. Take some kind of complex cyclical phenomenon that no one understand and look for some kind of cyclical function that you can superimpose on it,and then claim that explains everything.

We don't know what drives covid epidemics well enough to predict it, we can only make educated guesses.

Just about every optimistic prediction has been wrong. The countries that have done best have imposed robust lock downs.Vaccines have worked very well to reduce high death rates, but have been less successful, in stopping transmission. Especially against Delta.

Immunity wanes, people get complacent, new variants are more virulent.

Don't throw your masks out yet. You will need them.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:22 am


Since the pandemic began, Covid has often followed a regular — if mysterious — cycle. In one country after another, the number of new cases has often surged for roughly two months before starting to fall. The Delta variant, despite its intense contagiousness, has followed this pattern.

[…]

There have been plenty of exceptions to the two-month cycle around the world. In Brazil, caseloads have followed no evident pattern. In Britain, cases did decline about two months after the Delta peak — but only for a couple of weeks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/brie ... eload.html

So it follows a regular 2 month cycle - except in the plenty of countries where it doesn't. Hmmmm.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:29 am

bob sterman wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:22 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/brie ... eload.html

So it follows a regular 2 month cycle - except in the plenty of countries where it doesn't. Hmmmm.
Now turn to page 7 for your horoscope!
Something something hammer something something nail

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:34 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:49 am
Thread on who is still dying from Covid.
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status ... 6521977860

The splits for deaths of the fully vaccinated are interesting - a return to the male/female difference we speculated about way back in Feb 2020.
I suspect that the excess mortality for males there may be being driven by the fact that 84yo men are just less healthy than 84yo women, as evidenced by the difference in life expectancy between the two. I would expect about twice as many 84yo men vs women to die in any given month even without Covid.
Something something hammer something something nail

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:54 am

bob sterman wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:22 am

Since the pandemic began, Covid has often followed a regular — if mysterious — cycle. In one country after another, the number of new cases has often surged for roughly two months before starting to fall. The Delta variant, despite its intense contagiousness, has followed this pattern.

[…]

There have been plenty of exceptions to the two-month cycle around the world. In Brazil, caseloads have followed no evident pattern. In Britain, cases did decline about two months after the Delta peak — but only for a couple of weeks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/brie ... eload.html

So it follows a regular 2 month cycle - except in the plenty of countries where it doesn't. Hmmmm.
https://twitter.com/nathanwpyle/status/ ... 7475208193
future.jpeg
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molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:00 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:34 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:49 am
Thread on who is still dying from Covid.
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status ... 6521977860

The splits for deaths of the fully vaccinated are interesting - a return to the male/female difference we speculated about way back in Feb 2020.
I suspect that the excess mortality for males there may be being driven by the fact that 84yo men are just less healthy than 84yo women, as evidenced by the difference in life expectancy between the two. I would expect about twice as many 84yo men vs women to die in any given month even without Covid.
I did once find some Europe-wide life expectancy at 65 data.
life-expectancy-at-65.png
life-expectancy-at-65.png (109.77 KiB) Viewed 46 times
Mainly because I didn't really like this "higher death rate because more old people and old people are less healthy" argument. Or in other words what matters for your covid fatality probability isn't the number of years since you were born but the number of years until you would have died anyway.

But life expectancy of course only makes sense at the population level.
molto tricky

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:08 am

At the age of 10 I read a factoid with activities carrying a 1 in 1 million risk of death. I vividly remember that "being a 60 year old man for 15 minutes" was on the list. Now that I am a 60 year old man, I'm aware that I'm dodging several bullets, albeit mostly fired from a considerable distance, every day.

I was looking up the mortality figures for the US by age a few weeks ago, for some other purpose, and I checked. It seems to hold: 1 in a million per 15 minutes is about 1 in 10,000 per day, and indeed about 2.8% (10,000/365) of US 60 year old males die per year, as do 2.8% of 65 year old females. (One should of course use one of those formulas with a couple of "1 divided by" clauses to calculate this, but for small chances it's close enough to add rather than multiply.)
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