COVID-19

[jimbob]

You can see the second wave in the ONS raw deaths data in the North West:



From the ONS weekly data week 44

[Woodchopper]

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically changed human mobility patterns, necessitating epidemiological models which capture the effects of changes in mobility on virus spread1. We introduce a metapopulation SEIR model that integrates fine-grained, dynamic mobility networks to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in 10 of the largest US metropolitan statistical areas. Derived from cell phone data, our mobility networks map the hourly movements of 98 million people from neighborhoods (census block groups, or CBGs) to points of interest (POIs) such as restaurants and religious establishments, connecting 57k CBGs to 553k POIs with 5.4 billion hourly edges. We show that by integrating these networks, a relatively simple SEIR model can accurately fit the real case trajectory, despite substantial changes in population behavior over time. Our model predicts that a small minority of “superspreader” POIs account for a large majority of infections and that restricting maximum occupancy at each POI is more effective than uniformly reducing mobility. Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2–8 solely from differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and that the POIs they visit are more crowded and therefore higher-risk. By capturing who is infected at which locations, our model supports detailed analyses that can inform more effective and equitable policy responses to COVID-19.

tl;dr With hindsight, Eat Out to Help Out wasn’t a good idea.

[badger]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but thought it might be appreciated by those of you gallantly fighting the Great Barringtons and assorted fruit loops out there.

https://youtu.be/Nz_m3evTPLk

PS. I started watching fatemperor's latest vlog but there was so much BS in the first 5 minutes I couldn't stretch to watching a whole hour. Is that a tactic? Make these videos really long so they take longer to Fisk?

[lpm]

33,470 UK cases. A record.

It had looked as if cases were flattening at around the 22,000 level. Might still be true - random spikes are to be expected.

[shpalman]

33,470 UK cases. A record.

It had looked as if cases were flattening at around the 22,000 level. Might still be true - random spikes are to be expected.

Looking at cases by specimen date (and comparing yesterday's and todays data for Lincolnshire) it seems like the spike is from tests on Monday the 9th. There was previously a spike from tests dated Monday the 2nd.

[jimbob]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but thought it might be appreciated by those of you gallantly fighting the Great Barringtons and assorted fruit loops out there.

https://youtu.be/Nz_m3evTPLk

PS. I started watching fatemperor's latest vlog but there was so much BS in the first 5 minutes I couldn't stretch to watching a whole hour. Is that a tactic? Make these videos really long so they take longer to Fisk?

Yes it's utterly painful - especially the self-importance and narcissism* and then the sycophantic replies.

*in the colloquial sense at least.

I shared your video under a tweet reposting his video, thanks

[sTeamTraen]

A currently popular frootloop position seems to be as follows:

1. The increase in cases is due to false positives - apparently they now accept that there were lots of COVID-19 cases in the spring, but now everyne had herd immunity, and the false positives are occurring because the NHS and the testing companies all hired a bunch of idiots, none of whom know how to operate a PCR test.
2. Anyone dying in ICU on oxygen has the flu, because mid-November is "well into the worst of the winter flu season". Excess deaths are "well within the normal range".
3. Anyone else dying in hospital "of COVID" is in fact dying of something else, and gets noted down as dying "with COVID" in the official statistics, because of course when anyone goes to hospital now they get a test and it's a false positive (see point 1).

Any attempt to reason with these people --- some of whom appear to have the kind of scientific credentials that you would think make them at least able to understand basic logic --- is futile. The fact that every other major country seems to have the same problem is dismissed as "Well, I wouldn't know about that".

The leader of the gang is a pathologist (whose name has come up here before). I have written to the Royal College of Pathologists to see if they can apply any pressure to her to at least take "FRCPath" out of her screen name. She is currently unemployed (fill in your own joke here); googling reveals that she once tried to start her own free school, and the rest of the people involved are the entirely predictable set of disingenuous libertarian c.nts that you would expect.

If I were a doctor or ECMO nurse and I came across one of these people in public, I would be severely tempted to take the Buzz Aldrin option.

[badger]

A currently popular frootloop position seems to be as follows:

1. The increase in cases is due to false positives - apparently they now accept that there were lots of COVID-19 cases in the spring, but now everyne had herd immunity, and the false positives are occurring because the NHS and the testing companies all hired a bunch of idiots, none of whom know how to operate a PCR test.
2. Anyone dying in ICU on oxygen has the flu, because mid-November is "well into the worst of the winter flu season". Excess deaths are "well within the normal range".
3. Anyone else dying in hospital "of COVID" is in fact dying of something else, and gets noted down as dying "with COVID" in the official statistics, because of course when anyone goes to hospital now they get a test and it's a false positive (see point 1).

Any attempt to reason with these people --- some of whom appear to have the kind of scientific credentials that you would think make them at least able to understand basic logic --- is futile. The fact that every other major country seems to have the same problem is dismissed as "Well, I wouldn't know about that".

The leader of the gang is a pathologist (whose name has come up here before). I have written to the Royal College of Pathologists to see if they can apply any pressure to her to at least take "FRCPath" out of her screen name. She is currently unemployed (fill in your own joke here); googling reveals that she once tried to start her own free school, and the rest of the people involved are the entirely predictable set of disingenuous libertarian c.nts that you would expect.

If I were a doctor or ECMO nurse and I came across one of these people in public, I would be severely tempted to take the Buzz Aldrin option.

The "some of whom appear to have the kind of scientific credentials that you would think make them at least able to understand basic logic" bit is fascinating (or I guess infuriating, depending on your current mood). The point blank refusal to see what's in front of them, or even be curious about it, makes you wonder how they managed to get those credentials in the first place.

Has much been made of the Whitty & Vallance slide debacle? That seemed to be giving the loops a lot of ammo to amplify their nonsense?

[KAJ]

Looking at cases by specimen date (and comparing yesterday's and todays data for Lincolnshire) it seems like the spike is from tests on Monday the 9th. There was previously a spike from tests dated Monday the 2nd.

Yes, by specimen date there's nothing to suggest any rise from the recent plateau.

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.04.58.png (11.71 KiB) Viewed 3275 times

[shpalman]

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically changed human mobility patterns, necessitating epidemiological models which capture the effects of changes in mobility on virus spread1. We introduce a metapopulation SEIR model that integrates fine-grained, dynamic mobility networks to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in 10 of the largest US metropolitan statistical areas. Derived from cell phone data, our mobility networks map the hourly movements of 98 million people from neighborhoods (census block groups, or CBGs) to points of interest (POIs) such as restaurants and religious establishments, connecting 57k CBGs to 553k POIs with 5.4 billion hourly edges. We show that by integrating these networks, a relatively simple SEIR model can accurately fit the real case trajectory, despite substantial changes in population behavior over time. Our model predicts that a small minority of “superspreader” POIs account for a large majority of infections and that restricting maximum occupancy at each POI is more effective than uniformly reducing mobility. Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2–8 solely from differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and that the POIs they visit are more crowded and therefore higher-risk. By capturing who is infected at which locations, our model supports detailed analyses that can inform more effective and equitable policy responses to COVID-19.

tl;dr With hindsight, Eat Out to Help Out wasn’t a good idea.

FB_IMG_1605217022733.jpg (37.64 KiB) Viewed 3238 times

[jimbob]

A currently popular frootloop position seems to be as follows:

1. The increase in cases is due to false positives - apparently they now accept that there were lots of COVID-19 cases in the spring, but now everyne had herd immunity, and the false positives are occurring because the NHS and the testing companies all hired a bunch of idiots, none of whom know how to operate a PCR test.
2. Anyone dying in ICU on oxygen has the flu, because mid-November is "well into the worst of the winter flu season". Excess deaths are "well within the normal range".
3. Anyone else dying in hospital "of COVID" is in fact dying of something else, and gets noted down as dying "with COVID" in the official statistics, because of course when anyone goes to hospital now they get a test and it's a false positive (see point 1).

Any attempt to reason with these people --- some of whom appear to have the kind of scientific credentials that you would think make them at least able to understand basic logic --- is futile. The fact that every other major country seems to have the same problem is dismissed as "Well, I wouldn't know about that".

The leader of the gang is a pathologist (whose name has come up here before). I have written to the Royal College of Pathologists to see if they can apply any pressure to her to at least take "FRCPath" out of her screen name. She is currently unemployed (fill in your own joke here); googling reveals that she once tried to start her own free school, and the rest of the people involved are the entirely predictable set of disingenuous libertarian c.nts that you would expect.

If I were a doctor or ECMO nurse and I came across one of these people in public, I would be severely tempted to take the Buzz Aldrin option.

Ha a couple of us seem to have come across some who have gone full New World Order and "Global Reset" (quoting Ivor Cummins) on this.

[shpalman]

It made the national news that intensive care in the hospital in the centre of Como (the Valduce) is full, and the non-intensive covid beds are running out. (The place where I was teaching swing is right next to it; it's a small city, it still weirds me out a bit that there's space for a whole hospital in it.)

There's still a big out-of-town hospital though (the new St. Anna). There's also the old St. Anna just up the road from me which is where I went to get the 'flu vaccine last year and where they're doing drive-in covid tests but I'm not sure if there are any patients there anymore. There were suggestions to use is for isolation of light/asymptomatic covid cases, I'm not sure if they actually did anything.

Ah here we go: https://www.espansionetv.it/2020/11/14/ ... eno-gravi/

[shpalman]

Currently in the Guardian's Coronavirus UK section:

Screenshot 2020-11-14 145212.png (18.31 KiB) Viewed 3107 times

[shpalman]

Felixstowe clogged up with the government's PPE

[jimbob]

A currently popular frootloop position seems to be as follows:

1. The increase in cases is due to false positives - apparently they now accept that there were lots of COVID-19 cases in the spring, but now everyne had herd immunity, and the false positives are occurring because the NHS and the testing companies all hired a bunch of idiots, none of whom know how to operate a PCR test.
2. Anyone dying in ICU on oxygen has the flu, because mid-November is "well into the worst of the winter flu season". Excess deaths are "well within the normal range".
3. Anyone else dying in hospital "of COVID" is in fact dying of something else, and gets noted down as dying "with COVID" in the official statistics, because of course when anyone goes to hospital now they get a test and it's a false positive (see point 1).

Any attempt to reason with these people --- some of whom appear to have the kind of scientific credentials that you would think make them at least able to understand basic logic --- is futile. The fact that every other major country seems to have the same problem is dismissed as "Well, I wouldn't know about that".

The leader of the gang is a pathologist (whose name has come up here before). I have written to the Royal College of Pathologists to see if they can apply any pressure to her to at least take "FRCPath" out of her screen name. She is currently unemployed (fill in your own joke here); googling reveals that she once tried to start her own free school, and the rest of the people involved are the entirely predictable set of disingenuous libertarian c.nts that you would expect.

If I were a doctor or ECMO nurse and I came across one of these people in public, I would be severely tempted to take the Buzz Aldrin option.

Riffing on that - someone's asked me how the false-positive rate would affect the numbers of "confirmed COVID-19 cases in mechanically-ventilated beds" - which shows a distinct lack of thinking.

[bob sterman]

So Dr Clare Craig @ClareCraigPath says...

Where is this supposed COVID pandemic? There is mass misdiagnosis. It is causing staff shortages resulting in poor healthcare. Any real COVID is being totally obscured by this. But most importantly our country is on the brink of collapse because of faulty testing and poor QC.

Errr...where is the pandemic? In the mortuaries, crematoriums and cemeteries of Europe. Or does she think EuroMOMO have got it wrong and we need to start digging people up???

https://www.euromomo.eu/

EuroMOMO Bulletin, Week 45, 2020

Substantial excess mortality seen in Europe

The latest weekly pooled EuroMOMO estimates show a substantial excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, coiniciding with a reported increase in COVID-19 cases in several countries.

This excess mortality is driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, while other countries see normal mortality levels.

The excess all-cause mortality is seen primarily in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age groups of 15-44 and 45-64 years.

As a very basic skill you would hope a pathologist could recognize death.

[Sciolus]

Felixstowe clogged up with the government's PPE

BBC:

Two months ago, the former Transport Secretary Chris Grayling was hired to advise the port's parent company Hutchison Ports Europe, which is based in London. The register of MPs' financial interests shows he's being paid £100,000 for "around seven hours" of work per week.

[jimbob]

So Dr Clare Craig @ClareCraigPath says...

Where is this supposed COVID pandemic? There is mass misdiagnosis. It is causing staff shortages resulting in poor healthcare. Any real COVID is being totally obscured by this. But most importantly our country is on the brink of collapse because of faulty testing and poor QC.

Errr...where is the pandemic? In the mortuaries, crematoriums and cemeteries of Europe. Or does she think EuroMOMO have got it wrong and we need to start digging people up???

https://www.euromomo.eu/

EuroMOMO Bulletin, Week 45, 2020

Substantial excess mortality seen in Europe

The latest weekly pooled EuroMOMO estimates show a substantial excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, coiniciding with a reported increase in COVID-19 cases in several countries.

This excess mortality is driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, while other countries see normal mortality levels.

The excess all-cause mortality is seen primarily in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age groups of 15-44 and 45-64 years.

As a very basic skill you would hope a pathologist could recognize death.

She keeps rehashing that same story

[AMS]

Felixstowe clogged up with the government's PPE

BBC:

Two months ago, the former Transport Secretary Chris Grayling was hired to advise the port's parent company Hutchison Ports Europe, which is based in London. The register of MPs' financial interests shows he's being paid £100,000 for "around seven hours" of work per week.

Oh.

[Little waster]

Felixstowe clogged up with the government's PPE

BBC:

Two months ago, the former Transport Secretary Chris Grayling was hired to advise the port's parent company Hutchison Ports Europe, which is based in London. The register of MPs' financial interests shows he's being paid £100,000 for "around seven hours" of work per week.

Oh.

TBF with Grayling involved we are lucky that our ports aren’t clogged with 37bn flipflops (left feet only) printed with the face of Jimmy Saville ... and are on fire.

[sTeamTraen]

So Dr Clare Craig @ClareCraigPath says...

Where is this supposed COVID pandemic? There is mass misdiagnosis. It is causing staff shortages resulting in poor healthcare. Any real COVID is being totally obscured by this. But most importantly our country is on the brink of collapse because of faulty testing and poor QC.

Errr...where is the pandemic? In the mortuaries, crematoriums and cemeteries of Europe. Or does she think EuroMOMO have got it wrong and we need to start digging people up???

As a very basic skill you would hope a pathologist could recognize death.

She keeps rehashing that same story

I attempted to ask one of her fans, an Oxford professor (and climate denialist, what a surprise) whether it was reasonable for Clare Craig's hypothesis --- that these false positives are caused by increasingly incompetent/stressed testers --- to be replicated across every major Western health system. He replied "I make no comment here on other countries: I don’t know nearly enough about the details anywhere else. Parochial of me, but so be it." In other words, fingers in ears, LA LA LA LA, and the pigeon wins the game of chess again.

Ten years ago, calling yourself a Skeptic™ was a bit of an intellectual badge of honour. Now it mostly seems to mean "I am a contrarian c.nt". I wonder if SitP and other such movements are thinking of rebranding?

[jimbob]

So Dr Clare Craig @ClareCraigPath says...



Errr...where is the pandemic? In the mortuaries, crematoriums and cemeteries of Europe. Or does she think EuroMOMO have got it wrong and we need to start digging people up???

As a very basic skill you would hope a pathologist could recognize death.

She keeps rehashing that same story

I attempted to ask one of her fans, an Oxford professor (and climate denialist, what a surprise) whether it was reasonable for Clare Craig's hypothesis --- that these false positives are caused by increasingly incompetent/stressed testers --- to be replicated across every major Western health system. He replied "I make no comment here on other countries: I don’t know nearly enough about the details anywhere else. Parochial of me, but so be it." In other words, fingers in ears, LA LA LA LA, and the pigeon wins the game of chess again.

Ten years ago, calling yourself a Skeptic™ was a bit of an intellectual badge of honour. Now it mostly seems to mean "I am a contrarian c.nt". I wonder if SitP and other such movements are thinking of rebranding?

There is a certain type of person who has, what I think of as, a "scholarly" or even "theological" approach to analysis. Often they are highly intelligent and academically able, but also very blinkered. I suspect almost all global warming deniers are also covid deniers. One I interacted with on Twitter started on Covid, before moving to global warming, and ending up "as someone with a degree from Cambridge" (in geology) trying to prove by argument and without any reference to evidence that quantum physics was wrong - as I said, a theological approach.

or this supposed Visiting Fellow
https://twitter.com/AlexisBrassey/statu ... 4116793346

Spoiler:

Jim Parkin🕯 #BLM #FBPE
@ParkinJim
·
Apr 10
If that's your definition of left-of centre, then every Tory PM has publicly espoused those values, so you'd presumably think they're left of centre.
Alexis Brassey
@AlexisBrassey
·
Apr 10
Yes.

As I've said the discourse in the UK has gone so left wing that you can now describe people who believe in universal welfare as right wing. Its all very parochial. Libertarians would have a proper laugh at us.
Jim Parkin🕯 #BLM #FBPE
@ParkinJim
·
Apr 10
More left wing than the 1930's - wow. And libertarians wouldn't be laughing, they're too busy being bitter that Atlas Shrugged is an unworkable fantasy where the most plausible feature is a perpetual motion machine.



Alexis Brassey
@AlexisBrassey
Replying to
@ParkinJim

@SJHowitt
and 3 others
I'm just trying to give some context to the terms left and right. They are very fluffy. Generally, I'm talking about a position on the extent to which the government ought to play a role. The fact I believe in public health, ed, welfare can't make me of the right.
6:46 PM · Apr 10, 2020·Twitter Web App
Jim Parkin🕯 #BLM #FBPE
@ParkinJim
·
Apr 10
Replying to
@AlexisBrassey

@SJHowitt
and 3 others
We could widen it, and *literally* invoke the "to the left/right of Genghis Khan". After all, by the standards of people who believed in the divine right of kings, we're all dangerous revolutionaries. It's a pointless expansion, so I'll keep it to "the UK over the last 70 years"
Alexis Brassey
@AlexisBrassey
·
Apr 10
I'm not sure that is reasonable. We don't need to go back to the 1200s.

There are plenty of places in the world today who don't believe in public health, education, welfare, social housing etc. I'm sure there are many in the UK today who don't believe in it either.
Jim Parkin🕯 #BLM #FBPE
@ParkinJim
·
Apr 10
I'm not the person who's definition of centre-left would include Thatcher or Johnson. Which to me, makes it meaningless. "I'm to the left of Pitt the Elder" doesn't really sound that impressive.

Who also doesn't seem to believe in COVID-19

[Bird on a Fire]

Ah yes, leftism is when the government does things, and the more things the government does the more left it is.

[JQH]

Ah yes, leftism is when the government does things, and the more things the government does the more left it is.

Certainly seems to be the Trumpist attitude. I can't see how else they get to believing Joe Biden is a socialist.


Which makes me wonder what they would have called Bernie Sanders if he'd got the nomination.

[Opti]

Ah yes, leftism is when the government does things, and the more things the government does the more left it is.

Certainly seems to be the Trumpist attitude. I can't see how else they get to believing Joe Biden is a socialist.


Which makes me wonder what they would have called Bernie Sanders if he'd got the nomination.

Satan.