COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 13, 2021 5:50 pm

headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
We've had two contractors come to our house this week to provide quotes. I had to ask them to put on masks before entering our house.

Both were overweight men in their 50s. You'd think they'd exercise a little caution...

When we moved house last week, I had to ask the removal men to wear masks, and even then they did it reluctantly and inconsistently.

Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
As palman pointed out, masking needs to be normalized as a more or less permanent condition and should be extended to outside venues, due to the prevalence of more transmissable variants.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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bolo
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bolo » Thu May 13, 2021 6:21 pm

headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
Your house, your rules, whatever Johnson announces. If they refuse, there are other contractors and removal companies.

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 13, 2021 6:31 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 6:21 pm
headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
Your house, your rules, whatever Johnson announces. If they refuse, there are other contractors and removal companies.
Are you masking outside in DC, bolo?
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu May 13, 2021 6:35 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 5:50 pm
headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
We've had two contractors come to our house this week to provide quotes. I had to ask them to put on masks before entering our house.

Both were overweight men in their 50s. You'd think they'd exercise a little caution...

When we moved house last week, I had to ask the removal men to wear masks, and even then they did it reluctantly and inconsistently.

Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
As palman pointed out, masking needs to be normalized as a more or less permanent condition and should be extended to outside venues, due to the prevalence of more transmissable variants.
If mask wearing wasn't really normalized in Britain during the actual covid waves* then you've got no chance of convincing people to feel it's a good idea now.

* - the man who came to take my dad's wheelchair away after he died showed up at the door without a mask YOUR JOB IS LITERALLY GOING TO THE HOUSES OF ALL THE OLD AND/OR VULNERABLE PEOPLE jesus f.ck I'm amazed anyone in Britain actually survived.

Also my nephew came to help dismantle stuff and was of course in the same room as my mum, neither of them masked, and then a few days later someone he works with got a positive covid test.
molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 13, 2021 6:50 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 6:35 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 5:50 pm
headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
We've had two contractors come to our house this week to provide quotes. I had to ask them to put on masks before entering our house.

Both were overweight men in their 50s. You'd think they'd exercise a little caution...

When we moved house last week, I had to ask the removal men to wear masks, and even then they did it reluctantly and inconsistently.

Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
As palman pointed out, masking needs to be normalized as a more or less permanent condition and should be extended to outside venues, due to the prevalence of more transmissable variants.
If mask wearing wasn't really normalized in Britain during the actual covid waves* then you've got no chance of convincing people to feel it's a good idea now.

* - the man who came to take my dad's wheelchair away after he died showed up at the door without a mask YOUR JOB IS LITERALLY GOING TO THE HOUSES OF ALL THE OLD AND/OR VULNERABLE PEOPLE jesus f.ck I'm amazed anyone in Britain actually survived.

Also my nephew came to help dismantle stuff and was of course in the same room as my mum, neither of them masked, and then a few days later someone he works with got a positive covid test.
In some parts of America, mostly the NE I think, outdoor masking is normalized. Why can't we do that in the UK?
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu May 13, 2021 7:02 pm

molto tricky

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bolo
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bolo » Thu May 13, 2021 7:17 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 6:31 pm
Are you masking outside in DC, bolo?
When close to other people, yes, most people around here are still masking even outside.

People who are out for a walk or a run or a bike ride, on their own on a not-crowded sidewalk or trail, don't mask as consistently. I'd say anywhere from 50% or less when encountering only the occasional other person up to 90% or more in a busy shopping district.

If a contractor showed up to my house with no mask, I would be very surprised, even if they were there to do some outside work like painting or trimming a tree. And if I asked them to put on a mask, I would expect them to do so apologetically rather than grudgingly.

Inside in public spaces like shops, masking here is still universal, except when eating or drinking. I can't remember the last time I saw someone not wearing one inside, except when seated at a restaurant table. Probably more than a year ago.

This area is not necessarily typical of the country as a whole, but I haven't traveled since the pandemic started, so I have no personal impressions of what it's like elsewhere.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu May 13, 2021 8:15 pm

You can see the cases spread from the central Bolton region to nearby MSOAs in the government map.

Image

Image

Image

Sorry about the changing scale. Not sure how I managed that
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu May 13, 2021 8:40 pm

molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri May 14, 2021 12:23 am

I'm in the camp of Dr Feigl-Ding, this is a bad move and could herald the next wave in America. They havent had the variants there, especially the virulent Indian strain that is now entrenched in the UK. We need to keep masking, keep vaccinating with Pfizer, (skip the AZ), and we should be reinstating our lockdown restrictions until we have dealt with this variant.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri May 14, 2021 12:25 am

bolo wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 7:17 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 6:31 pm
Are you masking outside in DC, bolo?
When close to other people, yes, most people around here are still masking even outside.

People who are out for a walk or a run or a bike ride, on their own on a not-crowded sidewalk or trail, don't mask as consistently. I'd say anywhere from 50% or less when encountering only the occasional other person up to 90% or more in a busy shopping district.

If a contractor showed up to my house with no mask, I would be very surprised, even if they were there to do some outside work like painting or trimming a tree. And if I asked them to put on a mask, I would expect them to do so apologetically rather than grudgingly.

Inside in public spaces like shops, masking here is still universal, except when eating or drinking. I can't remember the last time I saw someone not wearing one inside, except when seated at a restaurant table. Probably more than a year ago.

This area is not necessarily typical of the country as a whole, but I haven't traveled since the pandemic started, so I have no personal impressions of what it's like elsewhere.
Thanks for that. Sometimes its hard to work out from afar what is going on in a particular place.
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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headshot
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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Fri May 14, 2021 8:47 am

What evidence are you using to require mandated mask usage outdoors Herainestold?

I'm not saying you're wrong to suggest widespread mask use, but most of the UK guidance says that masks in outdoor spaces aren't required because the risk of transmission is so low. And I say this as someone who's read all the documentation and generated risk assessments as the owner of one of the UK's largest outdoor theatre providers.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri May 14, 2021 11:30 am

I guess we will soon see whether the Covid.joinzoe.com app data or the government's dashboard is better at predicting hotspots.


The covid.joinzoe.com map says that Doncaster is bad. The dashboard says it's not and still falling there.
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Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri May 14, 2021 2:40 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 8:47 am
What evidence are you using to require mandated mask usage outdoors Herainestold?

I'm not saying you're wrong to suggest widespread mask use, but most of the UK guidance says that masks in outdoor spaces aren't required because the risk of transmission is so low. And I say this as someone who's read all the documentation and generated risk assessments as the owner of one of the UK's largest outdoor theatre providers.
The most recent evidence is that transmission is predominantly by aerosol which can be transmitted over considerable distances depending on air circulation. A study, mostly ignored, from last year in America shows that in the right climatic conditions, trransmission can occur over a mile away.
Instead, the testing showed that the combination of warmer or moderately cold air temperatures, with low wind speed and weak turbulence, increases the amount of time the virus can be airborne before getting dispersed in the air—up to 30 minutes in many cases. In low wind conditions, Bhaganagar discovered coronavirus aerosol particles can spread from 1 to 2 kilometers, or a little over a mile.
Based on Bhaganagar’s cumulative information, she said it’s highly likely that outdoor conditions also contributed to the wildfire-like spread of the coronavirus in the NYC metro area during spring 2020.

“This work is further evidence that outdoor air cannot dilute the virus particles, and there is strong evidence the spatial spread across states is linked to airborne transmission,” said Bhaganagar.


Based on the distance coronavirus aerosol can spread outdoors, Bhaganagar says her study suggests that outdoors 6 feet may not be adequate social distance to protect from the virus. She added the use of masks and other means of virus protection in outdoor areas are additional precautions to consider against contracting COVID-19.
https://www.utsa.edu/today/2020/09/stor ... tions.html

One of the ways that China beat covid last year was by extreme lockdown. Only essential workers were allowed outside and everyone had to be masked at all times. This is the one thing that has been overlooked. We are about to find out the consequences as this new more transmissible variant seeks out the more susceptible populations in the UK
Double dose. Double mask. Double distance

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri May 14, 2021 2:51 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 11:30 am
I guess we will soon see whether the Covid.joinzoe.com app data or the government's dashboard is better at predicting hotspots.


The covid.joinzoe.com map says that Doncaster is bad. The dashboard says it's not and still falling there.
above Covid.joinzoe estimates


below: government version,


Image

Image

Screenshot 2021-05-14 150419.png
Screenshot 2021-05-14 150419.png (434.11 KiB) Viewed 615 times
Screenshot 2021-05-14 150558.png
Screenshot 2021-05-14 150558.png (317.91 KiB) Viewed 615 times
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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Fri May 14, 2021 4:26 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 2:40 pm
One of the ways that China beat covid last year was by extreme lockdown. Only essential workers were allowed outside and everyone had to be masked at all times. This is the one thing that has been overlooked. We are about to find out the consequences as this new more transmissible variant seeks out the more susceptible populations in the UK
UK "lockdowns" have always been pretty relaxed compared to other countries - with mask wearing essentially optional (people free to decide on whether they are exempt).

And for next week we have guidelines on "safe hugging"...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57083571

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri May 14, 2021 4:45 pm

coinzoe also appears to show a warmer spot in Amber Valley and nothing particular in Erewash while uk.govid says Amber Valley is way down and Erewash is way up.

But it's annoying that they aren't directly comparable, because one is "active cases" while the other is "new cases".
molto tricky

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri May 14, 2021 7:19 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 4:45 pm
coinzoe also appears to show a warmer spot in Amber Valley and nothing particular in Erewash while uk.govid says Amber Valley is way down and Erewash is way up.

But it's annoying that they aren't directly comparable, because one is "active cases" while the other is "new cases".
There are the trend graphs
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Millennie Al
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Millennie Al » Sat May 15, 2021 2:46 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 2:40 pm
The most recent evidence is that transmission is predominantly by aerosol which can be transmitted over considerable distances depending on air circulation. A study, mostly ignored, from last year in America shows that in the right climatic conditions, trransmission can occur over a mile away.
Instead, the testing showed that the combination of warmer or moderately cold air temperatures, with low wind speed and weak turbulence, increases the amount of time the virus can be airborne before getting dispersed in the air—up to 30 minutes in many cases. In low wind conditions, Bhaganagar discovered coronavirus aerosol particles can spread from 1 to 2 kilometers, or a little over a mile.
https://www.utsa.edu/today/2020/09/stor ... tions.html
I'm afraid that study is not credible. It suggests that in ideal conditions you can smell a cigarette being smoked a mile away. Even if that is possible, we know from personal experience that it must be extremely rare, and not possibly a significant avenue for the spread of a disease. Note that the study is merely a computer model, so not very stong evidence to start with, and it's trying to assert a conclusion which should be a priori extremely unlikely.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Sciolus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sciolus » Sat May 15, 2021 5:55 pm

Aren't publishers supposed to be lifting paywalls for covid articles? Without seeing the full text, it's hard to critique, but from the abstract and press release it doesn't seem very insightful. High concentrations result from low wind speeds and stable atmospheric conditions --- that's simple physics and well-known among people who study stuff in air. The 1--2 km thing seems to be meaningless unless they've got either a critical viral load or a virus lifetime (which they may have but isn't available).

The cigarette test is a good one: in some conditions you can smell a cigarette 100 m or more away. But how does that relate to risk of covid infection? You need to know much more about the specific behaviour of sars-cov-2 to answer that.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sat May 15, 2021 7:58 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:55 pm
Aren't publishers supposed to be lifting paywalls for covid articles? Without seeing the full text, it's hard to critique, but from the abstract and press release it doesn't seem very insightful. High concentrations result from low wind speeds and stable atmospheric conditions --- that's simple physics and well-known among people who study stuff in air. The 1--2 km thing seems to be meaningless unless they've got either a critical viral load or a virus lifetime (which they may have but isn't available).

The cigarette test is a good one: in some conditions you can smell a cigarette 100 m or more away. But how does that relate to risk of covid infection? You need to know much more about the specific behaviour of sars-cov-2 to answer that.
I imagine if it's vape smoke, the virus particles probably could survive on the actual oil droplets for the length of time they're airborne
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tom p » Wed May 19, 2021 3:40 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 6:21 pm
headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
Your house, your rules, whatever Johnson announces. If they refuse, there are other contractors and removal companies.
I don't know how many removal companies there are in the DC area that have staff just sitting around waiting for a call at a moment's notice, but there aren't any in London or South Holland, that's for sure.
If you have to move house today, you can't wait 3 weeks for your worldly goods to be moved.

Lew Dolby
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lew Dolby » Thu May 20, 2021 4:23 pm

Sorry if this has already been asked and answered . . .

once again the media are throwing around "stats" like 2 doses of AZ vac gives 85-90% protection. What exactly is that supposed to mean ?? Is it that 10-15% can still get CoViD; 10-15% will die ?? Or something else ??
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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Thu May 20, 2021 4:55 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 4:23 pm
Sorry if this has already been asked and answered . . .

once again the media are throwing around "stats" like 2 doses of AZ vac gives 85-90% protection. What exactly is that supposed to mean ?? Is it that 10-15% can still get CoViD; 10-15% will die ?? Or something else ??
I think it means for "90% protection" - if you have 10,000 people and you'd expect 1000 to get symptomatic COVID-19 over a time period, vaccinating the 10,000 will reduce the number of symptomatic cases to 100.

i.e. it prevents 90% of the symptomatic cases you expect.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Thu May 20, 2021 5:06 pm

tom p wrote:
Wed May 19, 2021 3:40 pm
bolo wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 6:21 pm
headshot wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 4:43 pm
Good luck getting folks to wear them after Johnson announces it's "Mission Accomplished" on June 21st.
Your house, your rules, whatever Johnson announces. If they refuse, there are other contractors and removal companies.
I don't know how many removal companies there are in the DC area that have staff just sitting around waiting for a call at a moment's notice, but there aren't any in London or South Holland, that's for sure.
If you have to move house today, you can't wait 3 weeks for your worldly goods to be moved.
Yeah. Don't piss off your removal folk whilst they're moving your entire belongings...is one of my life lessons.

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