COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:05 pm

Oh well, there'll be fewer British people, so knock yourselves out.
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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:06 pm


An estimated 94.2% of the adult population of England, 93.2% in Wales, 89.1% in Northern Ireland and 93.5% in Scotland would have tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in the week beginning 26 July 2021.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... stinsights

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Trinucleus » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:37 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:29 pm
Our society is prepared to kill 80,000 smokers a year and still sell cigarettes in every cornershop.
"What you have to understand Prime Minister is that smokers are selflessly laying down their lives to pay for the National Health Service"

Sir Humphrey Appleby in Yes, Prime Minister

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:50 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:40 pm
Yep, and around 30,000 people die of flu in an average year. We have vaccinations and public health information campaigns but we don't shut the whole nation down.
That is one way to look at it. So 100 deaths per day is acceptable. What are you going to do when it hits 200 or 300?
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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wilsontown
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Re: COVID-19

Post by wilsontown » Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:32 pm

Well, if we assume those 30,000 flu deaths occur over the three months of winter, in round numbers that's 330 deaths per day. So I suppose we'll do what we normally do in a bad flu season.

Deaths will be the wrong metric on which to make decisions anyway. If the NHS is unable to cope because of too many covid patients needing hospital beds and ventilators, that's what will drive any decisions about future restrictions. Which of course is ultimately driven by case numbers.
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:46 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:32 pm
Well, if we assume those 30,000 flu deaths occur over the three months of winter, in round numbers that's 330 deaths per day. So I suppose we'll do what we normally do in a bad flu season.

Deaths will be the wrong metric on which to make decisions anyway. If the NHS is unable to cope because of too many covid patients needing hospital beds and ventilators, that's what will drive any decisions about future restrictions. Which of course is ultimately driven by case numbers.
Right. So we have to keep case numbers down. Vax doesn't do it. There is one NPI that does.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lew Dolby » Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:09 pm

Looks like he might finally get his come-uppance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -from-post

Leaves Macron, who gave him lots of exposure, out on a limb.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:16 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:05 pm
Oh well, there'll be fewer British people, so knock yourselves out.
Oh yes - yesterday, I came across the "Deagel population estimates 2025" and this story is HUGE IF TRUE because the numbers are literally incredible.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:18 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:09 pm
Looks like he might finally get his come-uppance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -from-post

Leaves Macron, who gave him lots of exposure, out on a limb.
Why does he need any resources to continue his research? After all he has a long history of fabrication.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by temptar » Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:33 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:40 pm
Yep, and around 30,000 people die of flu in an average year. We have vaccinations and public health information campaigns but we don't shut the whole nation down.
To what extend do flu cases occupy ICU beds compared to Covid19 cases in terms of numbers and length of occupation? Do you have the resources for both flu and covid together or do you triage out the probably doomed and not bother trying to cure them?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:42 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:11 pm
You don't get hospitals overwhelmed with 'flu cases in the same way as has happened 2-3 times with covid so far.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... o-oranges/

tl;dr "Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single patient [dying of 'flu] over their careers. Some said they recalled a few."
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:19 am

shpalman wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:42 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:11 pm
You don't get hospitals overwhelmed with 'flu cases in the same way as has happened 2-3 times with covid so far.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... o-oranges/

tl;dr "Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single patient [dying of 'flu] over their careers. Some said they recalled a few."
It appears that few people die solely of influenza. What kills them is pneumonia which is a result of the influenza infection.

In 2019 there were 1 223 UK deaths from Influenza, and 26 398 deaths caused by "Influenza and Pneumonia". Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Also, when comparing Influenza and Covid deaths we should also consider the effect on life expectancy of those who die.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:24 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:29 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:53 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:28 pm
Around 50% of child fatalities are children with severe neurological conditions, about 17% with other life limiting illnesses. The remaining 33% includes other conditions and a few perfectly healthy children.

It sounds callous but Covid is now a disease that only matters to the very elderly and those with very serious conditions, plus those who've rejected vaccines.

For the rest of us it's just one of many serious illnesses and we should worry more about poverty related killers and similar - things where health outcomes can be improved at far far lower cost than mass lockdowns, trashing of education, unemployment, etc
The question is, as a society, how many excess deaths are we willing to tolerate?
That's surprisingly easy to answer. Our society is prepared to kill 80,000 smokers a year and still sell cigarettes in every cornershop. Kill 5,000 via suicide and still wreck mental health services through cuts. Kill 2,000 on the roads and still effectively decriminalize speeding. Kill 40,000 through air pollution and still prioritise the road lobby. Kill 30,000 through obesity and refuse to regulate the food industry.

But when I try to kill another 30,000 with Covid y'all get upset and want to trash the economy instead.
Probably a subject for a different thread, but in general people see deaths caused by obesity, smoking and suicide as being a consequence of individual freedom, rather than something that should be actively prevented via social mobilization (as was the case with pre-vaccine Covid). They may well be wrong though.

You have a very good point about air pollution though.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:35 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:28 pm
Each case in under 30s is the equivalent of a vaccine dose.

We spent months tracking daily vaccine numbers, celebrating milestones achieved. Now we get to celebrate cases in the same way. If 300,000 under 30s get partial immunity in a week that's another step closer to herd immunity. But if it's 200,000 via infection and 100,000 via vaccination then everyone gets agitated about the 200,000 figure. It's even worse on twitter than it is on here - people unbelievably slow to adapt to the new climate and still trotting out 2020 presumptions.

For example, hospitalisations are about three doublings away from being a crisis. In 2020, three doublings wasn't a lot - easily got there in few weeks. But in the 2021 land of the vaccinated it's a huge gulf. We're basically fine for the rest of the year.
I think we have to wait and see. R is about 1 now but it will probably increase as we move into Autumn and Winter. If people drop social distancing Delta will spread rapidly. If so the circa 2-5% of double vaccinated people who will still need hospital treatment may add up rather quickly.

We'll probably know by the end of October.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:46 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:35 am
lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:28 pm
Each case in under 30s is the equivalent of a vaccine dose.

We spent months tracking daily vaccine numbers, celebrating milestones achieved. Now we get to celebrate cases in the same way. If 300,000 under 30s get partial immunity in a week that's another step closer to herd immunity. But if it's 200,000 via infection and 100,000 via vaccination then everyone gets agitated about the 200,000 figure. It's even worse on twitter than it is on here - people unbelievably slow to adapt to the new climate and still trotting out 2020 presumptions.

For example, hospitalisations are about three doublings away from being a crisis. In 2020, three doublings wasn't a lot - easily got there in few weeks. But in the 2021 land of the vaccinated it's a huge gulf. We're basically fine for the rest of the year.
I think we have to wait and see. R is about 1 now but it will probably increase as we move into Autumn and Winter. If people drop social distancing Delta will spread rapidly. If so the circa 2-5% of double vaccinated people who will still need hospital treatment may add up rather quickly.
Ventilator bed occupancy is heading for 23% of its peak value (just over 4000 on the 24th of January); hospital occupancy peaked just under 40000 about a week before that and you're now at 16% of that value. If I can take those peak values as an indication of your capacity, then you'd already be back in the Yellow zone according to Italy's rules (where despite the lower vaccination coverage we have about half the death rate you do, but I expect some of the regions which are currently full of domestic holiday makers are going to ruin this shortly).

What social distancing are you still doing, which would be left to drop?
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:35 am
We'll probably know by the end of October.
If things only go up slowly then at least you'll have time to react. But then if R increases so that the case rate increases, there'll be a lag before the rates of hospitalizations and deaths increase, and that will lead to morons thinking (again) that they won't ever increase and that vaccinations broke the link between cases and deaths. By October I don't expect your vaccination coverage to be that much better than it is now - a few extra young people or a few of the older ones finally persuaded minus those who were first to be vaccinated out of exposure or vulnerability getting exposed or becoming vulnerable.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:04 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:46 am
What social distancing are you still doing, which would be left to drop?
There does appear to be a seasonal aspect to Covid-19. People spend a much more time outside, and spend time away from schools, universities and work. That'll end as the weather gets colder.
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:35 am
We'll probably know by the end of October.
If things only go up slowly then at least you'll have time to react. But then if R increases so that the case rate increases, there'll be a lag before the rates of hospitalizations and deaths increase, and that will lead to morons thinking (again) that they won't ever increase and that vaccinations broke the link between cases and deaths. By October I don't expect your vaccination coverage to be that much better than it is now - a few extra young people or a few of the older ones finally persuaded minus those who were first to be vaccinated out of exposure or vulnerability getting exposed or becoming vulnerable.
[/quote]

Vaccination won't have changed much. About 94% of adults have antibodies already. That will be closer to 100% by then.

We'll have to see whether and how fast infection spreads once the season changes.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:12 pm

If we are just going to put up with this level of death and destruction -another 30 000 deaths per annum added on top of influenza and other plagues-
we are going to have to increase NHS capacity. More beds, more ICU beds, more doctors, more nurses, more support staff. Where are we going to get them? You can build things quickly, but it takes years to train staff. Is anybody in charge thinking about this?
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:22 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:12 pm
If we are just going to put up with this level of death and destruction -another 30 000 deaths per annum added on top of influenza and other plagues-
we are going to have to increase NHS capacity. More beds, more ICU beds, more doctors, more nurses, more support staff. Where are we going to get them? You can build things quickly, but it takes years to train staff. Is anybody in charge thinking about this?
Some of the covid deaths will be instead of other plagues; well, it will kill people who were going to die of something else anyway, but a few years earlier.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/ ... isk-groups
Severity of COVID-19 is associated with increased age, male sex, and pre-existing medical conditions [1-3]. Underlying health conditions reported among adult patients with severe COVID-19 disease include diabetes [4-6], obesity [4,7], hypertension [3,4], history of heart failure[4,8], ischaemic heart disease [4,17,18], solid organ tumours [4,9], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) [4,10], chronic respiratory disease[4], chronic kidney disease [4,11,12], immune compromised status [4], cancer [4,13,14], neurologic conditions [4,15], smoking [4,16], and pregnancy [14,17]. Severe disease is here defined as ICU or hospital admission, mechanical ventilation, or death.
references are in this pdf
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jdc » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:37 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:19 am
shpalman wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:42 pm
shpalman wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:11 pm
You don't get hospitals overwhelmed with 'flu cases in the same way as has happened 2-3 times with covid so far.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... o-oranges/

tl;dr "Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single patient [dying of 'flu] over their careers. Some said they recalled a few."
It appears that few people die solely of influenza. What kills them is pneumonia which is a result of the influenza infection.

In 2019 there were 1 223 UK deaths from Influenza, and 26 398 deaths caused by "Influenza and Pneumonia". Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Also, when comparing Influenza and Covid deaths we should also consider the effect on life expectancy of those who die.
Are they lumping in all pneumonia cases with flu cases to get that 26k figure? On that page it says: "For influenza and Pneumonia, we use ICD-10 code J09 – J18." The J09-J18 code covers pneumonia caused by bacteria and other viruses from J12-J18 with J09-J11 involving flu https://www.icd10data.com/ICD10CM/Codes/J00-J99/J09-J18

I can't find viral or bacterial pneumonia in any of the other codes J00-J99: https://www.icd10data.com/ICD10CM/Codes/J00-J99 so the only place they seem to appear is in the flu+pneumonia J09-J18 section which makes me think anything based on J09-J18 is lumping all pneumonia cases together and it's only J09-J11 where flu is implicated.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:55 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:04 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:46 am
What social distancing are you still doing, which would be left to drop?
There does appear to be a seasonal aspect to Covid-19. People spend a much more time outside, and spend time away from schools, universities and work. That'll end as the weather gets colder.
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:35 am
We'll probably know by the end of October.
If things only go up slowly then at least you'll have time to react. But then if R increases so that the case rate increases, there'll be a lag before the rates of hospitalizations and deaths increase, and that will lead to morons thinking (again) that they won't ever increase and that vaccinations broke the link between cases and deaths. By October I don't expect your vaccination coverage to be that much better than it is now - a few extra young people or a few of the older ones finally persuaded minus those who were first to be vaccinated out of exposure or vulnerability getting exposed or becoming vulnerable.
Vaccination won't have changed much. About 94% of adults have antibodies already. That will be closer to 100% by then.

We'll have to see whether and how fast infection spreads once the season changes.
This is what I meant about infections needing to be added to vaccinations.

We're currently getting 200,000 people a week antibodified via infection and 300,000 people antibodified via injection.

Obviously there's a lot of double count, with infections of people double-dosed and first doses of people with previous infections, but these all add a bit to antibodiness. The big win comes from people jumping from zero to 50% in a single jab, but going from 50% to 75% is also nice.

The govt wants infections to flow steadily through under 30s. They don't want to slow that pace with masks in schools or ventilation in nightclubs. I don't understand why the twitter commentariat doesn't understand this.

We're not far off herd immunity. September is a bit of a nervy time with schools and universities going back but fundamentally it's hard to get the raging fires of previous waves.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:46 am
Ventilator bed occupancy is heading for 23% of its peak value (just over 4000 on the 24th of January); hospital occupancy peaked just under 40000 about a week before that and you're now at 16% of that value. If I can take those peak values as an indication of your capacity, then you'd already be back in the Yellow zone according to Italy's rules (where despite the lower vaccination coverage we have about half the death rate you do, but I expect some of the regions which are currently full of domestic holiday makers are going to ruin this shortly).
This % is the metric to watch. Not case numbers.

I said before that we were 3 doublings away from crisis mode which is about right - 3 doublings would be 184% of Jan ventilators and 128% of Jan hospital occupancy. That's the sort of level when people start dying in corridors. We'd need to slam into lockdowns if we were heading to this point.

But it's pretty impossible to race up to 3 doublings with R=1.1 or even R=1.3. Vaccination prevents acceleration.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:25 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:55 pm
We're not far off herd immunity. September is a bit of a nervy time with schools and universities going back but fundamentally it's hard to get the raging fires of previous waves.
Famous last words. Herd immunity doesn't work for Delta.
Reaching herd immunity is “not a possibility” with the current Delta variant, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group has said.

Giving evidence to MPs on Tuesday, Prof Sir Andrew Pollard said the fact that vaccines did not stop the spread of Covid meant reaching the threshold for overall immunity in the population was “mythical”.

“The problem with this virus is [it is] not measles. If 95% of people were vaccinated against measles, the virus cannot transmit in the population,” he told the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus.

“The Delta variant will still infect people who have been vaccinated. And that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated at some point will meet the virus … and we don’t have anything that will [completely] stop that transmission.”
Beyond old people dying, (who cares they were going to die anyway), there is the problem of the hospitals filling up with sick people, who probably won't die, but are going to be filling those beds and ICUs for weeks before they get better. Better not have a heart attack or a stroke or need cancer surgery in the next six months. All those cases are going to add to excess deaths above your 30 000 covid deaths.

Then there are the otherwise healthy younger people and children who are going to get swept up in this wave. People who still would have many years of life left.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-mythical
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:07 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:02 am
People are desperate to force the "it was football" narrative, no matter the facts.
...
9000 cases

Also, apparently, tennis fans and football fans behave differently?
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:22 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:07 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:02 am
People are desperate to force the "it was football" narrative, no matter the facts.
...
9000 cases

Also, apparently, tennis fans and football fans behave differently?
Here’s the preprint: https://khub.net/documents/135939561/33 ... 0d5d6b4f17

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:46 pm

Delta’s rise is fuelled by rampant spread from people who feel fine
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02259-2

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