COVID-19

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:12 am

SARS-CoV-2 in rural Latin America. A population-based study in coastal Ecuador

Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 303/673 rural Ecuadorian adults (45%), 77% of whom had compatible clinical manifestations. Seropositivity was associated with the use of open latrines. Our findings support the fears of mass spread of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Latin America and cannot exclude a contributing role for fecal-oral transmission.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/do ... 55/5876901

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:10 pm

I don't think we've had this yet:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/ ... 21-DM34023
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Infection Among Attendees of an Overnight Camp — Georgia, June 2020
Early Release / July 31, 2020 / 69
A total of 597 Georgia residents attended camp A. Median camper age was 12 years (range = 6–19 years), and 53% (182 of 346) were female. The median age of staff members and trainees was 17 years (range = 14–59 years), and 59% (148 of 251) were female. Test results were available for 344 (58%) attendees; among these, 260 (76%) were positive. The overall attack rate was 44% (260 of 597), 51% among those aged 6–10 years, 44% among those aged 11–17 years, and 33% among those aged 18–21 years (Table). Attack rates increased with increasing length of time spent at the camp, with staff members having the highest attack rate (56%). During June 21–27, occupancy of the 31 cabins averaged 15 persons per cabin (range = 1–26); median cabin attack rate was 50% (range = 22%–70%) among 28 cabins that had one or more cases. Among 136 cases with available symptom data, 36 (26%) patients reported no symptoms; among 100 (74%) who reported symptoms, those most commonly reported were subjective or documented fever (65%), headache (61%), and sore throat (46%).

The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, attack rates presented are likely an underestimate because cases might have been missed among persons not tested or whose test results were not reported. Second, given the increasing incidence of COVID-19 in Georgia in June and July, some cases might have resulted from transmission occurring before or after camp attendance.†† Finally, it was not possible to assess individual adherence to COVID-19 prevention measures at camp A, including physical distancing between, and within, cabin cohorts and use of cloth masks, which were not required for campers.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:37 pm

How many of the UK's cases were caused by moving elderly patients out of hospital into care homes without testing? It seems plausible that the UK's relatively bad CFR could (partly) be a direct result of us actively seeding the virus into the most vulnerable population.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:39 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:10 pm
I don't think we've had this yet:
This seems like pretty terrible news for the reopening of schools, even if that's traded off for the pubs closing. Unless teachers have a lot of PPE, being in front of 20 infected mouths with limited coughing-into-tissue discipline is going to lead to a lot of infections; plus, transmission between households using kids as a stepping stone will be a big risk.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:27 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:39 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:10 pm
I don't think we've had this yet:
This seems like pretty terrible news for the reopening of schools, even if that's traded off for the pubs closing. Unless teachers have a lot of PPE, being in front of 20 infected mouths with limited coughing-into-tissue discipline is going to lead to a lot of infections; plus, transmission between households using kids as a stepping stone will be a big risk.
Yes, it is a counter argument to the suggestions that kids don’t get it or pass it on. That said, it looks like the kids will have had much closer contact than at school - eg sleeping in dormitories and probably communal singing and chanting.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:47 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:27 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:39 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:10 pm
I don't think we've had this yet:
This seems like pretty terrible news for the reopening of schools, even if that's traded off for the pubs closing. Unless teachers have a lot of PPE, being in front of 20 infected mouths with limited coughing-into-tissue discipline is going to lead to a lot of infections; plus, transmission between households using kids as a stepping stone will be a big risk.
Yes, it is a counter argument to the suggestions that kids don’t get it or pass it on. That said, it looks like the kids will have had much closer contact than at school - eg sleeping in dormitories and probably communal singing and chanting.
Yes, but it comes back to a numbers game. Even if the daily transmission rate is 50 times worse, then in 10 weeks of school that's the sort of numbers we'd see.

76% of the 58% tested.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:14 pm

AMS wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:37 pm
How many of the UK's cases were caused by moving elderly patients out of hospital into care homes without testing? It seems plausible that the UK's relatively bad CFR could (partly) be a direct result of us actively seeding the virus into the most vulnerable population.
Almost 30,000 'excess' care homes deaths a month ago, with 20,000 attributable to covid, although the article hints that it's staff spreading it rather than moving elderly patients out of hospital into care homes without testing (which is a mistake which Italy also made).

(There were 44,000 official covid deaths in the UK at that point.)
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:21 pm

Cerebral Micro-Structural Changes in COVID-19 Patients – An MRI-based 3-month Follow-up Study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ecli ... Fk.twitter

Background
Increasing evidence supported the possible neuro-invasion potential of SARS-CoV-2. However, no studies were conducted to explore the existence of the micro-structural changes in the central nervous system after infection. We aimed to identify the existence of potential brain micro-structural changes related to SARS-CoV-2.
Methods
In this prospective study, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and 3D high-resolution T1WI sequences were acquired in 60 recovered COVID-19 patients (56.67% male; age: 44.10 ± 16.00) and 39 age- and sex-matched non-COVID-19 controls (56.41% male; age: 45.88 ± 13.90). Registered fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD), and radial diffusivity (RD) were quantified for DTI, and an index score system was introduced. Regional volumes derived from Voxel-based Morphometry (VBM) and DTI metrics were compared using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Two sample t-test and Spearman correlation were conducted to assess the relationships among imaging indices, index scores and clinical information.
Findings
In this follow-up stage, neurological symptoms were presented in 55% COVID-19 patients. COVID-19 patients had statistically significantly higher bilateral gray matter volumes (GMV) in olfactory cortices, hippocampi, insulas, left Rolandic operculum, left Heschl's gyrus and right cingulate gyrus and a general decline of MD, AD, RD accompanied with an increase of FA in white matter, especially AD in the right CR, EC and SFF, and MD in SFF compared with non-COVID-19 volunteers (corrected p value <0.05). Global GMV, GMVs in left Rolandic operculum, right cingulate, bilateral hippocampi, left Heschl's gyrus, and Global MD of WM were found to correlate with memory loss (p value <0.05). GMVs in the right cingulate gyrus and left hippocampus were related to smell loss (p value <0.05). MD-GM score, global GMV, and GMV in right cingulate gyrus were correlated with LDH level (p value <0.05).
Interpretation
Study findings revealed possible disruption to micro-structural and functional brain integrity in the recovery stages of COVID-19, suggesting the long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2.
tl;dr Months after recovery, people who had been infected with Covid still had inflammation of several areas of the brain.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:39 pm

UK figures show increase in cases over the last month, but steady decrease in deaths.

Is it just testing more people, or are we getting better at treatments?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:46 pm

Well, we'll see if deaths start increasing again over the next couple of weeks.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:53 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:39 pm
UK figures show increase in cases over the last month, but steady decrease in deaths.

Is it just testing more people, or are we getting better at treatments?
Or younger people getting infected?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:29 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:48 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:06 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:21 pm
With Matt Hancock turning up at the opening of the Nightingale Hospital not looking 100%.

Does anyone know - where did the UK get the scientific evidence to support its 7 day isolation period for people with symptoms of COVID-19 (and in Hancock's case confirmed to have it)?

I've been following the published research since January and have not seen anything to justify such a short isolation period in confirmed cases.
SARS-CoV-2 virus can initially be detected 1–2 days prior to symptom onset in upper respiratory tract samples; the virus can persist for 7–12 days in moderate cases and up to 2 weeks in severe cases (WHO mission to China Report) [1]. In faeces, viral RNA has been detected in up to 30% of patients from day 5 after onset and up to 4 to 5 weeks in moderate cases. The significance of faecal viral shedding for transmission still has to be clarified [1].
Prolonged viral shedding from nasopharyngeal aspirates – up to at least 24 days after symptom onset – was reported among COVID-19 patients in Singapore [2]. Researchers from Germany also reported prolonged viral shedding with high sputum viral load after recovery in a convalescent patient [3]. They acknowledge, however, that viability of SARS-CoV-2 detected by qRT-PCR in this patient has not been proven by viral culture.
Prolonged virus shedding has been observed among convalescent children after mild infections, in respiratory tract samples (22 days) and faeces (between two weeks and more than one month) [4].
A shift from positive oral swab samples during early infection to positive rectal swab samples during late infection was observed on Chinese patients; the authors raised concerns about the fact that COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospital on the basis of negative oral swabs [5].
From here: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... iteria.pdf
The UK is going against the WHO on this, yet again. It's bizarre that someone can be ill in bed for days, then feel a bit better and head off to the supermarket after 7 days after start of symptoms, particularly when some people (like Johnson) are feeling ill for significantly longer than 7 days..

It's not clear if you can be churning out "live" viruses 7 days after the start of symptoms, or whether it's just dead strands of RNA. Probably there's some residual infectiousness after 7 days, but not so long as to require the 14 day WHO rule.

It's part of the UK's policy of keeping things a bit hotter - allowing construction sites, keeping schools partly open, letting people go out and about after 7 days... A steady infection rate remains the plan, a R0=1 policy to get herd immunity instead of a R0<1 lock down.
I meant to come back to this. This was our discussion from 3 April about whether 7 days isolation was enough.

On 30 July the government changed it to 10 days.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:30 am

I don't know if there are versions of this story in other languages but but the Swiss Covid-19 task force estimates that there might be 250,000--400,000 cases, i.e. 3-5% of the population compared to the 36,108 official cases. (Population of Switzerland, 8.6 million.)

(Switzerland peaked at about 15,000 active cases and dropped to a few hundred in mid-June but is now increasing again, and is currently on about 2,500 with about 150 new cases per day.)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... itzerland/
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Hunting Dog » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:20 pm

According to the Indy
"The government is said to be mulling over a “more sophisticated model” for shielding," which could include telling Obese people to stay home

sounds to me as though that could be counter-productive for any chance of them getting fitter/lighter

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:29 pm

Hunting Dog wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:20 pm
According to the Indy
"The government is said to be mulling over a “more sophisticated model” for shielding," which could include telling Obese people to stay home

sounds to me as though that could be counter-productive for any chance of them getting fitter/lighter
“They are understanding that age does come into it. The shielding cohort is way too broad. You can’t say that every fat person has to shield – it will be more subtle.”
Well telling everyone who is overweight or obese to stay home would be a substantial fraction of the UK population.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:34 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:29 pm
Hunting Dog wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:20 pm
According to the Indy
"The government is said to be mulling over a “more sophisticated model” for shielding," which could include telling Obese people to stay home

sounds to me as though that could be counter-productive for any chance of them getting fitter/lighter
“They are understanding that age does come into it. The shielding cohort is way too broad. You can’t say that every fat person has to shield – it will be more subtle.”
Well telling everyone who is overweight or obese to stay home would be a substantial fraction of the UK population.
Also telling everyone who is overweight or obese to stay home would be a substantial fraction of the UK cabinet.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:38 am

The Cummings effect: politics, trust, and behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic

On May 22, 2020, The Guardian and Daily Mirror newspapers in the UK published details of how Dominic Cummings, senior aide to the British prime minister, had broken lockdown rules by travelling 420 km to a family estate with his wife (who had suspected COVID-19) and child. Although some other officials and senior figures had also broken the lockdown rules, this transgression was the first to not immediately be followed by an apology and resignation. The event prompted media condemnation, with concerns about transparency, accountability, and equality,1 and many scientists spoke out about the effect of Cummings' actions and the UK Government's defence of Cummings in undermining essential public health messaging.1, 2
It is only now, however, with the benefit of hindsight provided by systematic data, that we can see these negative effects in stark detail. New analyses of 220 755 surveys from 40 597 individuals in England, Scotland, and Wales, completed between April 24 and June 11, 2020, as part of University College London's COVID-19 Social Study, show that these events undermined confidence in the government to handle the pandemic specifically.
We report the change in ratings of confidence in the government to handle the pandemic from the baseline on April 24, 2020 (appendix p 1–3). Participants from England answered about central government, and participants in Scotland and Wales answered about their own devolved governments. Confidence was measured on a scale from 1 (not at all) to 7 (completely). The sample was well stratified across sociodemographic factors and weighted to population proportions for core demographics (appendix p 9). Starting on May 22, 2020, there was a clear decrease in confidence in England, a decline that continued over the following days. Analyses of data from Google Trends showed that public searches of Dominic Cummings' name peaked 3 days later (May 25, 2020; appendix p 4) when he gave a televised statement. This peak coincided with the steepest decline in confidence in government (appendix p 1–3).
To ascertain whether this decrease in confidence was as a result of the Cummings events (a Cummings effect), we carried out analyses using two types of comparisons. First, we compared the responses for people living in England to those of people living in the devolved nations of Scotland and Wales who were asked to rate their confidence in their own devolved governments. There was no evidence of a similar large decrease in confidence in the governments of the devolved nations either descriptively (appendix p 1–3) or statistically (appendix p 5) during the 3 weeks following May 22, 2020. Second, using data from questions identical in format to those about confidence in government, we compared confidence in the health service to cope with the pandemic, and confidence that access to essentials (eg, food and medication) would be maintained during the same time period. There was no evidence of a decrease in confidence in the health system or confidence in acquiring essentials during the same time period, either in descriptive data or when applying statistical tests (appendix pp 1, 2, 5), further showing that the change in confidence in the government was a considerable departure from the weeks preceding the Cummings events.
Public trust in the government's ability to manage the pandemic is crucial as this trust underpins public attitudes and behaviours at a precarious time for public health. Our data show how closely public confidence is related to government announcements regarding COVID-19. After an initial increase in public confidence in the ability of the government to handle the pandemic well between March 21 and March 23, 2020, as lockdown came in, the government's announcement on May 10, 2020, that society would begin to reopen in England through a staged series of lockdown easing measures as part of a new COVID-19 alert level system was followed by a decrease in confidence (appendix p 1–3). Leaders of devolved governments in Scotland and Wales who expressed concern that these measures were risky and premature and who did not change lockdown measures or messaging did not see any clear decreases in confidence from their public.3 Data show that confidence stabilised and even improved slightly in England in the fortnight following these events, until the Cummings effect.
This finding is echoed by data from weekly political surveys, which show that confidence decreased with these announcements but then remained stable for 2 weeks until the Cummings events, when confidence suddenly decreased further (appendix p 6).
Another reason for concern is that trust is related to people's willingness to follow rules and guidelines, both generally and during the COVID-19 pandemic,4, 5 which is fundamental to the control of infection and mortality. There had already been a gradual decrease in public adherence to guidelines before the publicity about Cummings' actions on May 22, but the difference in this decline between England and Wales and Scotland grew in the 3 weeks following (May 22–June 11, 2020; appendix p 7, 8).
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 1/fulltext

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:45 am

More libertarianism death cultism from the DM.

Tl;dr version. Unlike Britain’s horrifyingly strict lockdown (it wasn’t) Sweden never locked down (it did). Despite this Sweden’s death rate is low (it’s not) and it managed to save its economy (it didn’t). Now we are getting to the point Sweden has achieved herd immunity (not even close) and will soon be the first country to enter a post-COVID existence (no-where near) thus vindicating their laissez-faire approach (it hasn’t) to the the overwhelming approval of its people (nope). So take off that mask and go back to licking door handles!

Usual Paragraph 17 nuances and caveats but the headline, summary and the bulk of the article are either outright fabrications or weaselly worded.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:57 am

And wtf are they doing with the graphs...
59% of US residents infected each day?
1% of Americans dying each day?
Screenshot_20200810-095250.jpg
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:36 am

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:57 am
And wtf are they doing with the graphs...
59% of US residents infected each day?
1% of Americans dying each day?

Screenshot_20200810-095250.jpg
The irony of course is their cherry picking and statistical shenanigans just highlights the central dishonesty of their whole argument.

By playing silly buggers with the Y-axes, carefully selecting the metrics used and failing to weight for population size, stage of pandemic, differences in testing, reporting etc. if you squint you can just about make the case that Sweden is doing better than the US and UK (while masking how much worse it is doing compared to Germany, the rest of Scandinavia, NZ etc.). Except the US and UK are both substantial outliers exactly because they initially followed (and in many respects continue to do so) the same dogmatic libertarianism lockdown-scepticism that the likes of Birrell continue to push against all evidence.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by basementer » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:29 am

Oh bugger.

NZ has got confirmed COVID that wasn't caught at the border.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:20 pm

... and the publication of UK deaths data is temporarily paused while an urgent review is carried out...

You'll notice that it was so urgent when it was asked for on the 17th of July that they're only doing it now.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... -and-cases
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Trinucleus » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:38 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:39 pm
UK figures show increase in cases over the last month, but steady decrease in deaths.

Is it just testing more people, or are we getting better at treatments?
So over 1000 new cases for the third time in a week, but deaths still on a steady downward trend, and has been since early July.

More young people getting it?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:50 pm

Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:38 pm
Trinucleus wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:39 pm
UK figures show increase in cases over the last month, but steady decrease in deaths.

Is it just testing more people, or are we getting better at treatments?
So over 1000 new cases for the third time in a week, but deaths still on a steady downward trend, and has been since early July.

More young people getting it?
Possibly, but also deaths will lag cases, especially if more of the testing is from contact tracing (because you'll catch cases earlier than in the early days when people were only tested after they arrived at the hospital with severe disease). Death rates may also be improving due to better medical understanding of how to treat patients.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:02 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:20 pm
... and the publication of UK deaths data is temporarily paused while an urgent review is carried out...

You'll notice that it was so urgent when it was asked for on the 17th of July that they're only doing it now.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... -and-cases
Reduced by 5000 - there's now a 28-day cutoff because the UK has no system for declaring when covid-sufferers no longer have covid.
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