COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:59 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:03 pm
Because he's a Populist, so we keep expecting him to pick the most popular thing in every situation.

But he always f.cks that up as well.

He's really popular despite, just think how he could be even more popular because.
Exactly. I can understand the point of populism, but not the bit where he must realise it's going to be unpopular.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sun Jul 18, 2021 4:15 pm

Expert says cases will go up to a big number and might also go to a bigger number

I also predict daily cases will go up to some amount or maybe a different amount!

(My current trendline, based on a 16-day doubling time, predicts 7-day average of ~100,000 per day on the 3rd of August; you'd expect the free-for-all starting tomorrow to accelerate things but I'm not sure how much people's actual behaviour will change, with people who would rather be cautious staying cautious and people who are happy to run around naked pissing and sh.tting on other people are already doing that anyway. Of course you'll see people saying "well the government said it was safe" from their hospital beds, as if they also believe what the government says when it doesn't suit them.)

Based on my estimates in the genuinely crushing certainty thread 100,000 cases per day will eventually turn out to be 300 deaths per day, and 5000 hospital admissions per day, in mid August.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:52 pm

Jenrick's been on about how the peak might not be until the end of August or early September.

Bit of a spanner in the works for the whole herd thinning by the end of summer policy. Isn't the point that the great cull was supposed to be finished by the time schools went back in Autumn?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:36 am

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 4:15 pm
Expert says cases will go up to a big number and might also go to a bigger number

I also predict daily cases will go up to some amount or maybe a different amount!

(My current trendline, based on a 16-day doubling time, predicts 7-day average of ~100,000 per day on the 3rd of August; you'd expect the free-for-all starting tomorrow to accelerate things but I'm not sure how much people's actual behaviour will change, with people who would rather be cautious staying cautious and people who are happy to run around naked pissing and sh.tting on other people are already doing that anyway. Of course you'll see people saying "well the government said it was safe" from their hospital beds, as if they also believe what the government says when it doesn't suit them.)

Based on my estimates in the genuinely crushing certainty thread 100,000 cases per day will eventually turn out to be 300 deaths per day, and 5000 hospital admissions per day, in mid August.

1000 hospitalisations a day can’t possibly be right can it. It was 740 on the 13th July according to the dashbord. Surely just another model that’s already proved wrong by existing real world data.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:51 am

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:36 am
shpalman wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 4:15 pm
Expert says cases will go up to a big number and might also go to a bigger number

I also predict daily cases will go up to some amount or maybe a different amount!

(My current trendline, based on a 16-day doubling time, predicts 7-day average of ~100,000 per day on the 3rd of August; you'd expect the free-for-all starting tomorrow to accelerate things but I'm not sure how much people's actual behaviour will change, with people who would rather be cautious staying cautious and people who are happy to run around naked pissing and sh.tting on other people are already doing that anyway. Of course you'll see people saying "well the government said it was safe" from their hospital beds, as if they also believe what the government says when it doesn't suit them.)

Based on my estimates in the genuinely crushing certainty thread 100,000 cases per day will eventually turn out to be 300 deaths per day, and 5000 hospital admissions per day, in mid August.

1000 hospitalisations a day can’t possibly be right can it. It was 740 on the 13th July according to the dashbord. Surely just another model that’s already proved wrong by existing real world data.
Well yes, I mean, I'm currently seeing that 5% of daily cases end up going to hospital two weeks later, so the fact that the average is already 45,000 cases per day means you are going to have 2250 hospitalizations a day two weeks from now.

Of course, if you were an idiot and you just looked at the latest admissions figure, which is 740 for the 13th of July, and compared that to 36,660 cases reported on that same day, you'd say only 2% of cases were ending up in hospital in this wave, but I don't think it makes sense to do that when a two-week lag and a 5% ratio really puts the curves on top of each other.

The previous peak was over 4000 per day in January and at current rates you'll reach that about 4-5 weeks from now.
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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:53 am

So does anyone have a guess at what level the NHS "breaks"? As in doctors desperately phoning round for beds and O2, deaths occurring in corridors?

The January peak was 40,000 in hospital, 4,200 admitted per day. Presumably in hospital is the relevant figure, but everyone else seems to talk about admissions per day so we might as well go along with that (stays are slightly shorter on average right now, due to the younger mix and better treatments, but not enough to compensate for). Call it a multiple of 10x.

Currently 7-day average is about 600 admissions per day, latest 740. We know the lags. We have a good idea of the new gearing ratios.

We are now certain to reach 100,000 cases per day as shpalman says, and that's pretty certain to give about 5,000 admissions per day.

The January peak was pretty bad for NHS doctors and nurses. But not really close to breaking? Because of the lags, they knew case numbers had started to fall and they knew the strict lockdown would mean they'd continue to fall - so they worked through the peak knowing the pressure would soon diminish. They won't have that this time, assuming nothing halts the rise in cases in the very near future. Temporary for a month is a very different problem to persisting for several months.

So are we in a position where we match the January peak on, say, 19 August, yet also will have seen cases continuing to rise between 5 Aug and 19 Aug, guaranteeing more hospitalisations to come?

Breaking point must be over 5,000 admissions per day. 8,000 per day? 16,000 per day? Assume the 10x multiple and 50,000 or 80,000 or 160,000 in hospital? Google says there's only 160,000 UK hospital beds in total... When does the world watch India-style desperation of relatives trying to get a loved one into hospital and pity the poor backwards people of Plague Island?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:12 am

I have hospital occupancy lagging three weeks behind the new cases per day, with a factor of 0.4, so three weeks from now* we'll have about 18,000 in hospital from the current* 45,000 cases per day (it's currently about 4000 back from when there were only about 16,000 cases per day). Two or three weeks after that we'll be getting to 40,000 in hospital if nothing changes.

More younger people in hospital might mean longer stays since there's a better chance of saving them eventually?

(* most recent 7-day average is associated with 4 days ago.)
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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:38 am

Hmm.

The best scenario is that the cases curve starts to bend very soon, despite nightclubs but helped by schools closing. But it's then a long, long plateau across the summer because there's nothing particularly R<1 about our situation.

The Shpalman Equation, Occupancy = 0.4 x Cases, would mean a plateau of 100,000 means a plateau of 40,000 in hospital.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:44 am

The Shpalman Equation doesn't hold for Scotland. Cases peaked there about 3 weeks ago at around 3,333 per day. Hospital occupancy hasn't yet peaked but is about 530.

Implies about 0.2 x Cases.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:15 pm

I think what throws off your model is handling the hospital levels that were very low until recently. There are a lot of long stayers, in hospital for over a month say, so when hospital numbers are low they dominate. The median length of stay might be 7 days typically but when there's few cases this median will rise.

For example, if there's a fixed component of 500 people in hospital long term and a floating component of 1,500 people from recent cases, it looks like a high multiple - which would be true in the UK till recently. But now cases have shot up it's fixed 500 plus floating 3,500 and the equation changes. Soon it will be 500 plus 19,500, meaning ultimately the floating component is all that matters.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:17 pm

The number of cases we have in hospital is doubling every 14 days or so.
NHS respiratory consultant who works across a number of hospitals wrote:At the current rates, that suggests we will need to open new wards and restart our Cpap unit in a couple of weeks.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:07 pm

We’ve raised our level to OPEL 4 for the second time in 3 weeks today. So Happy Freedom day to us. At one point last week we had no ICU beds and neither did any hospital in the region. Not all of that is covid but it doesn’t help. We can transfer patients elsewhere if need be but obviously that’s only an option if they also have space.

Off the top of my head/from Twitter I think they’ve cancelled non urgent surgery in Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle. There must be others. I think the Royal London have just had to reopen their additional ICU ward. NHS isn’t broken yet, but it’s not exactly functioning normally either.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:30 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:15 pm
I think what throws off your model is handling the hospital levels that were very low until recently. There are a lot of long stayers, in hospital for over a month say, so when hospital numbers are low they dominate. The median length of stay might be 7 days typically but when there's few cases this median will rise.

For example, if there's a fixed component of 500 people in hospital long term and a floating component of 1,500 people from recent cases, it looks like a high multiple - which would be true in the UK till recently. But now cases have shot up it's fixed 500 plus floating 3,500 and the equation changes. Soon it will be 500 plus 19,500, meaning ultimately the floating component is all that matters.
Well that's possible and why I flagged the numbers in hospital and on ventilation as being particularly meaningless to compare to new cases per day. It doesn't account for the length of the stay.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:31 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:44 am
The Shpalman Equation doesn't hold for Scotland. Cases peaked there about 3 weeks ago at around 3,333 per day. Hospital occupancy hasn't yet peaked but is about 530.

Implies about 0.2 x Cases.
What about the admission rate? And also, what did Scotland do differently that they already peaked?
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:31 pm
And also, what did Scotland do differently that they already peaked?
Lost the footy and stopped going to watch it in the pub is the only partly facetious answer.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:11 pm

The football theory is bollocks, as per previous posts.

It's actually schools shutting. While nightclubs etc remained shut. Scotland has had significantly more lockdownness than England for the past month.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:22 pm

A friend of mine has been working with the Cabinet Office and tells me that it was he who got the "Three C's" (Closed spaces, Crowded places, and Close contact), which originated in Japan in late March 2020, into a memo that went in front of the PM recently. Hence their appearance today. My mate is quite chuffed, partly because he has been wanting to get "Hands" and "Face" out of the equation for a while, and partly because I know he will quietly chortle at some of the meme potential of "the Three C's".
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:32 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:11 pm
The football theory is bollocks, as per previous posts.

It's actually schools shutting. While nightclubs etc remained shut. Scotland has had significantly more lockdownness than England for the past month.
Schools is a big driver.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:39 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:32 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:11 pm
The football theory is bollocks, as per previous posts.

It's actually schools shutting. While nightclubs etc remained shut. Scotland has had significantly more lockdownness than England for the past month.
Schools is a big driver.
Ironically, this sentence is (more or less) grammatically acceptable. :)
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Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:09 pm

We're adopting a policy of not counting covid in schools, therefore it doesn't exist. The replace isolation with LFT experiment was such a success that we're rolling it out without bothering with the LFTs from the 16th August.
The adverse educational impacts of school closures or days off school fall disproportionately on students from more deprived areas and may be of long-term importance. Reducing days off school could mitigate some of the health inequalities related to COVID-19. Children and young people who have SARS-CoV2 infection generally do not become so unwell that they need to take much, or any, time off sick from education
Someone's just spotted this in the JCVI vaccination report. Which looks suspiciously like they might move towards go to school even if you know you have covid.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:32 am

OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:09 pm
Someone's just spotted this in the JCVI vaccination report. Which looks suspiciously like they might move towards go to school even if you know you have covid.
I'm assuming that "Covid: Just a cold, get on with it you bunch of softies" will be UK government policy by October.

Curiously, though, in the last 48 hours Fox News seems to have gone from "Chinese hoax" to "Oh sh.t". If Murdoch issues similar instructions to his UK editors things could get interesting.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin_B » Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:48 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:32 am
Curiously, though, in the last 48 hours Fox News seems to have gone from "Chinese hoax" to "Oh sh.t". If Murdoch issues similar instructions to his UK editors things could get interesting.
Does this mean Rupert himself has caught it?
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:49 am

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:48 am
sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:32 am
Curiously, though, in the last 48 hours Fox News seems to have gone from "Chinese hoax" to "Oh sh.t". If Murdoch issues similar instructions to his UK editors things could get interesting.
Does this mean Rupert himself has caught it?
He'd be invulnerable from any risk of heart damage
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:26 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:32 am
OffTheRock wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:09 pm
Someone's just spotted this in the JCVI vaccination report. Which looks suspiciously like they might move towards go to school even if you know you have covid.
I'm assuming that "Covid: Just a cold, get on with it you bunch of softies" will be UK government policy by October.

Curiously, though, in the last 48 hours Fox News seems to have gone from "Chinese hoax" to "Oh sh.t". If Murdoch issues similar instructions to his UK editors things could get interesting.
Trump urged Americans to get vaccinated back in March, but it seems to have gone almost un noticed.
Washington (CNN)Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged Americans to get vaccinated to help curb the Covid-19 pandemic, calling it "safe" and "something that works."
"I would recommend it and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don't want to get it and a lot of those people voted for me, frankly," Trump told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo.
"But again," he continued, "we have our freedoms and we have to live by that and I agree with that also. But it is a great vaccine. It is a safe vaccine and it is something that works."

The comments -- which amount to Trump's most energetic endorsement of vaccination -- come as vaccine hesitancy among Republicans continues to threaten the US' path to herd immunity. While 92% of Democrats either have gotten vaccinated or want to get vaccinated, that number plummets to 50% among Republicans, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/16/politics ... index.html
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Re: COVID-19

Post by monkey » Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:29 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:48 am
sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:32 am
Curiously, though, in the last 48 hours Fox News seems to have gone from "Chinese hoax" to "Oh sh.t". If Murdoch issues similar instructions to his UK editors things could get interesting.
Does this mean Rupert himself has caught it?
It means that it's looking bad, but their guy's not in charge of it anymore.

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