COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:37 am
Useful summary of why some of the 'its all hysteria' arguments are wrong: https://mattschelling.substack.com/p/yo ... -comparing

eg the IFR of influenza isn't 0.1%
Simple maths shows that in the UK.

England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon May 18, 2020 8:22 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:37 am
Useful summary of why some of the 'its all hysteria' arguments are wrong: https://mattschelling.substack.com/p/yo ... -comparing

eg the IFR of influenza isn't 0.1%
Simple maths shows that in the UK.

England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
Add in the up to 20% needing hospitalization and the probable long term damage for many of thise and you are looking at scary odds. Most might be fine, but enough won't be
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon May 18, 2020 8:47 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:37 am
Useful summary of why some of the 'its all hysteria' arguments are wrong: https://mattschelling.substack.com/p/yo ... -comparing

eg the IFR of influenza isn't 0.1%
Simple maths shows that in the UK.

England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
The official numbers from Hubei gave a CFR of 4-5%; with that "50% extra deaths" correction people were talking about afterwards it would maybe be more like 7%. Now it may well be that the official numbers are still 10 times too low, but then I'd expect the infection numbers to be similarly lied about.

But even if you only take their official figures as they were at the beginning of February, you get about 3%.

Wuhan is now on a mission to test its entire population of 11 million people.
molto tricky

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon May 18, 2020 12:38 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:47 am
jimbob wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:37 am
Useful summary of why some of the 'its all hysteria' arguments are wrong: https://mattschelling.substack.com/p/yo ... -comparing

eg the IFR of influenza isn't 0.1%
Simple maths shows that in the UK.

England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
The official numbers from Hubei gave a CFR of 4-5%; with that "50% extra deaths" correction people were talking about afterwards it would maybe be more like 7%. Now it may well be that the official numbers are still 10 times too low, but then I'd expect the infection numbers to be similarly lied about.

But even if you only take their official figures as they were at the beginning of February, you get about 3%.

Wuhan is now on a mission to test its entire population of 11 million people.
Exactly, and the data looks surprisingly consistent from the start, with the Korean church outbreak being the best early data, showing 80% infection, 20% hospitalization off the top of my head
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Mon May 18, 2020 3:27 pm

Fun times. My nextdoor neighbours and their young daughter spent yesterday in another neighbour’s garden for their kid’s birthday party, for which they hired a bouncy castle...

Now the nextdoor neighbours have their parents over to visit.

And I can hear them coughing, probably just their usual smoker’s cough, but still.

Thick people gonna thick...

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon May 18, 2020 3:33 pm

Image

Dozens of bikers and 'hundreds' of people gather at popular beauty spot

Some moron who was also out saw lots of other people who were out: "what are all those other people doing here?"

Good news for anyone on the organ transplant waiting list though.
molto tricky

AMS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Mon May 18, 2020 6:05 pm

Motorcycle helmets would probably be pretty effective at reducing viral transmission. But you want a Covid-positive organ donation?

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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm

How many people in that photo are within 2m of anyone else, and how could you tell?

AMS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Mon May 18, 2020 8:54 pm


plodder
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Re: COVID-19

Post by plodder » Mon May 18, 2020 9:08 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm
How many people in that photo are within 2m of anyone else, and how could you tell?
Dunno, but I live near a touristy place near the sea and it was pretty bl..dy mobbed today. Plus the public loos are closed, as are the pubs and cafes. So nowhere for them to take a piss...

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon May 18, 2020 9:42 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:22 am
Add in the up to 20% needing hospitalization and the probable long term damage for many of thise and you are looking at scary odds. Most might be fine, but enough won't be
One of the things that pisses me off most about the "lockdown skeptics" is their more-or-less implicit narrative that if they do get it (which they won't because they definitely already had it last October, ooh, I was in bed for three days, it was terrible), they have about one chance in a million of dying ("less than a Saturday night out in Glasgow HUR HUR HUR"), and otherwise it will basically be a week-long skive with a bit of Carry On Nurse if they're lucky. Kind of like a slightly disrupted holiday where they had to stay on at the hotel for another 3 days and share a shower with another couple while the morons at the airline glued the plane back together HUR HUR HUR.

I saw this a day or two ago and haven't been able to fully stop thinking about it. Source: https://twitter.com/jhalifax/status/126 ... 24352?s=20
98184917_10158469233471663_8389771614014668800_n.jpg
98184917_10158469233471663_8389771614014668800_n.jpg (94.73 KiB) Viewed 642 times
Sitting in a sleazy snackbar sucking sickly sausage rolls

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Fishnut
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Fishnut » Mon May 18, 2020 10:16 pm

AMS wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:54 pm
So this scandal keeps growing...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-in-april
Holy f.ck.

I couldn't read the whole article because I knew I'd either scream with anger or burst into tears. How the f.ck has any of this been allowed to happen? We knew a pandemic would be coming at some point. How on earth did we end up so monumentally unprepared?!

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Fishnut » Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm


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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm
This is going to end well
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).

Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).

Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue May 19, 2020 12:48 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:08 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm
How many people in that photo are within 2m of anyone else, and how could you tell?
Dunno, but I live near a touristy place near the sea and it was pretty bl..dy mobbed today. Plus the public loos are closed, as are the pubs and cafes. So nowhere for them to take a piss...
Another one for the "but what are all these other people also doing here?" file:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/travel/uk-irel ... e-22047584

“It’s nice to get out of quarantine but I think it’s going to peak again because everyone’s going to go mad and go anywhere they can." said Ellie, who went somewhere just because she could.
molto tricky

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Fishnut
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Fishnut » Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm
This is going to end well
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).

Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).

Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.

I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".

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Re: COVID-19

Post by dyqik » Tue May 19, 2020 2:11 pm

The US is going to be fun to watch from further away than I am. Daily new cases in Texas are now 50% higher than they were before they started easing what lock down they had there.

plebian
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Re: COVID-19

Post by plebian » Tue May 19, 2020 6:26 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm
This is going to end well
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).

Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).

Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.

I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
Cummings the Great Disrupter must be having a hard time getting any work done, what with him ejaculating constantly since the crisis began.

He wants to reform government and the country, and he's been handed this pandemic to use as his hammer.
Pithy, well, a right helmet at least.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 19, 2020 6:29 pm

Yep, it's the perfect moment for further disaster capitalism.
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

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Re: COVID-19

Post by mediocrity511 » Tue May 19, 2020 7:20 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm
This is going to end well
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).

Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).

Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.

I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
Although it's worth pointing out that furloughed workers who are shielding are not who are usually considered drains on society because they are employed. I can believe it with the care home stuff, but to me this feels more like their consistent misunderstanding that plenty of the shielded group are generally well, working age adults. There's been lots of replies to questions about those shielded or advice given out to them that have mentioned things like doing soduku and keeping in touch with grandchildren.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 19, 2020 7:22 pm

I've been getting to know a working age neighbour who is shielded due to a hereditary condition that it seems her daughter also has. Though luckily she's able to work from home, I'm rather worried about the countless others like her.

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mediocrity511
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Re: COVID-19

Post by mediocrity511 » Tue May 19, 2020 7:27 pm

We find out this week if OH needs to shield after only a few weeks ago thinking he was healthy but prone to chest infections. Realistically this means we all need to, as there's no way to keep a 1 year old and a 5 year old at 2m distance from their Dad and most of the other guidance isn't workable either.

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Fishnut
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Fishnut » Tue May 19, 2020 8:06 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:20 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm


This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).

Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).

Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.

I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
Although it's worth pointing out that furloughed workers who are shielding are not who are usually considered drains on society because they are employed. I can believe it with the care home stuff, but to me this feels more like their consistent misunderstanding that plenty of the shielded group are generally well, working age adults. There's been lots of replies to questions about those shielded or advice given out to them that have mentioned things like doing soduku and keeping in touch with grandchildren.
Oh I know, but keeping my conspiracy hat firmly on, they ask for things like 'reasonably adjustments' which are just so annoying.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Millennie Al » Wed May 20, 2020 12:52 am

Fishnut wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:16 pm
AMS wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:54 pm
So this scandal keeps growing...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-in-april
How the f.ck has any of this been allowed to happen? We knew a pandemic would be coming at some point. How on earth did we end up so monumentally unprepared?!
Blame the government, the opposition, and the voters.

Care homes were both part of the NHS and not part of it. They might have NHS branding, without being free at point of use. They were sufficiently organisationally separate that, instead of the NHS being one organisation with common goals, hospitals and care homes were in tension as patients took up valuable hospital beds due to not having care home places etc. Each part of the divided organisation had an incentive to offload marginally sick people onto the other, so when a crisis arose this long standing tension led to various bad results as different parts of the system worked in conflict instead of in concert.

It doesn't help that standard PPE is probably not very suitable. The normal primary purpose of medical PPE is to prevent medics infecting patients. Patients are already weakened by their condition and are often much more susceptible to infection then the healthy people around them. For example, when doctors first started realising that puerpal fever was being spread by their own actions it was not because they were catching it themselves. They were spreading it via contamination. However, PPE for Covid-19 patients must also protect the medics from catching it from their patients and an infected medic is much worse for patients than a contaminated one as the amount of contamination will be limited but an infectious person can produce a continuous stream of infectious material.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Wed May 20, 2020 7:02 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:52 am
Care homes were both part of the NHS and not part of it. They might have NHS branding, without being free at point of use. They were sufficiently organisationally separate that, instead of the NHS being one organisation with common goals, hospitals and care homes were in tension as patients took up valuable hospital beds due to not having care home places etc. Each part of the divided organisation had an incentive to offload marginally sick people onto the other, so when a crisis arose this long standing tension led to various bad results as different parts of the system worked in conflict instead of in concert.
Many care homes don't have NHS branding (e.g. local authority run, private providers) BUT within each home many residents may be receiving NHS funded care.

For a small minority - the NHS may be paying all their care costs through NHS Continuing Health Care (CHC) Funding (although this is notoriously difficult to get).

For many more they will be receiving a smaller NHS Funded Nursing Care Contribution (FNC) - that pays for some of the nursing care they receive while resident in a home.

So even if the branding at the front door doesn't say "NHS" a good chunk of the residents are officially NHS patients - receiving care funded by the NHS.

Patients newly discharged from a hospital to a care home are particularly likely to be receiving one of these forms of funding - i.e. they didn't cease being NHS patients at the point they were discharged from the hospital. But apparently access to testing and PPE didn't follow them.

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