COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bjn
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bjn » Thu May 21, 2020 8:21 pm

Opti wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 7:30 pm
I was really, really unwell, here in Spain from the 5th January. A bit like flu, but no runny nose. But no sense of smell or taste. High fever, really painful dry cough - at one point I thought I was developing pneumonia - thought I was dying. Lasted pretty much all of January.
Despite having had the flu jab and all sorts of coincidental things to do with air travel ... I still reckon I just had a strain of flu that the jab didn't cover.
My sister was in Vietnam in December and came down with something similarly horrid. In her tour party was a doctor who had actually been in Wuhan a week or so before and had also been recently ill. Sister (a doctor) is convinced it was COVID, though she's not had an anti-body test yet. Or it could be something she picked up from a mosquito while tooling down the Mekong.

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 21, 2020 8:36 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:50 pm
So at the government briefing today it was stated that antibody tests had shown that 17% of people in London, and 5% of the overall population, have had coronavirus.

Can't find a figure right now for excess deaths in London - but the official number for COVID-19 deaths in London is currently about 6000.

Using this figure that would put the IFR in London at about 0.4% currently.

But once you factor in further deaths from currently hospitalised patients who were infected weeks ago - and other deaths due to COVID that weren't confirmed with testing - then I assume the IFR would end up in the 0.5-1.0% range that we've seen pretty consistently around the world.
The FT estimates 9300 excess deaths in London.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 21, 2020 8:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:36 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:50 pm
So at the government briefing today it was stated that antibody tests had shown that 17% of people in London, and 5% of the overall population, have had coronavirus.

Can't find a figure right now for excess deaths in London - but the official number for COVID-19 deaths in London is currently about 6000.

Using this figure that would put the IFR in London at about 0.4% currently.

But once you factor in further deaths from currently hospitalised patients who were infected weeks ago - and other deaths due to COVID that weren't confirmed with testing - then I assume the IFR would end up in the 0.5-1.0% range that we've seen pretty consistently around the world.
The FT estimates 9300 excess deaths in London.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441

From that figure, 10% infected in London .

bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Thu May 21, 2020 8:53 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:36 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:50 pm
So at the government briefing today it was stated that antibody tests had shown that 17% of people in London, and 5% of the overall population, have had coronavirus.

Can't find a figure right now for excess deaths in London - but the official number for COVID-19 deaths in London is currently about 6000.

Using this figure that would put the IFR in London at about 0.4% currently.

But once you factor in further deaths from currently hospitalised patients who were infected weeks ago - and other deaths due to COVID that weren't confirmed with testing - then I assume the IFR would end up in the 0.5-1.0% range that we've seen pretty consistently around the world.
The FT estimates 9300 excess deaths in London.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441
OK - if they're all COVID then that puts the IFR at about 0.6% (if 17% of 9 million = 1,530,000 infected).

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Stranger Mouse
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 7:05 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 5:18 pm
I’m having a family member who I really don’t get on with haranguing me that there were Covid cases in the UK as early as November / December last year.

Is there any actual evidence for this or am I safe in calling b.llsh.t? I accept it may have started earlier than thought in China but apart from the Daily Express nobody else is pushing this.
There have been reports from reasonably serious people of cases in Europe before January. The most credible and parsimonious explanation for these is:
(a) Patients had a different virus with similar symptoms (there are loads of them);
(b) Antibody tests are either false positives or are because the patient was infected at some time after SARS-Cov-2 reached Europe;
(c) PCR tests on contemporary blood samples are false positives, e.g. from contamination. I believe reports that claim positive PCR tests are particularly rare.

Or so I understand.
One thing occurs to me is that it would be strange if there were large cases of undiscovered Covid at that time you would have expected an unusual and obvious number of unexpected hospitalisations shortly afterwards.

People forget how sh.t flu can be. I had a case of flu almost 40 years ago that was so f.cking awful that I still remember it.
A caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.

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Martin_B
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin_B » Fri May 22, 2020 1:18 am

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm
People forget how sh.t flu can be. I had a case of flu almost 40 years ago that was so f.cking awful that I still remember it.
Yeah, I've had mild cases of the flu twice. Both resulted in being bed-ridden for ~2 days and house-bound for the rest of the week. Actual full recovery took over a month. The flu isn't just a bad cold!
"Don't tell me that the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri May 22, 2020 6:12 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:01 pm
There have been a number of reports, and clinical re-evaluations of suspicious respiratory illnesses in November from France, the UK, America.
What is lacking is some kind of genome analysis whioch would place the infections in the phylogenetic tree as catalogued by nextstrain
That would require there to be blood samples from the time of the infection which still have the virus, or at least viral RNA, in them.
molto tricky

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 22, 2020 7:10 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:12 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:01 pm
There have been a number of reports, and clinical re-evaluations of suspicious respiratory illnesses in November from France, the UK, America.
What is lacking is some kind of genome analysis whioch would place the infections in the phylogenetic tree as catalogued by nextstrain
That would require there to be blood samples from the time of the infection which still have the virus, or at least viral RNA, in them.
As mentioned earlier, the ‘re-evaluations’ in France were just cases of a doctor stating that previous CT scans were consistent with Covid.

If several people had been admitted to hospital in France with Covid in November then it’s difficult to see why the outbreak didn’t occur until March.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by EllyCat » Fri May 22, 2020 10:39 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52754280

Is this new information, or is it just a signal that the patient is in the early stages of a cytokine storm (which we already knew is a possible outcome of COVID-19)?

Sorry, my immunology knowledge is enough to follow what’s going on but not enough to analyse it.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri May 22, 2020 1:04 pm

So maybe 20,000 more deaths in Italy compared to the official covid stats (red), based on excess deaths data (blue).
FB_IMG_1590152526439.jpg
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molto tricky

Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri May 22, 2020 1:24 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:10 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:12 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:01 pm
There have been a number of reports, and clinical re-evaluations of suspicious respiratory illnesses in November from France, the UK, America.
What is lacking is some kind of genome analysis whioch would place the infections in the phylogenetic tree as catalogued by nextstrain
That would require there to be blood samples from the time of the infection which still have the virus, or at least viral RNA, in them.
As mentioned earlier, the ‘re-evaluations’ in France were just cases of a doctor stating that previous CT scans were consistent with Covid.

If several people had been admitted to hospital in France with Covid in November then it’s difficult to see why the outbreak didn’t occur until March.
Yes, I am agreeing with you, but this keeps coming up. People keep saying they think they had it last fall. It seems to be a fashionable belief these days.

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Vertigowooyay
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Vertigowooyay » Fri May 22, 2020 5:20 pm

Ladies and gentlemen, our government. You’d think Johnson would want to shy away from mentions of fridges.


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Calm yourself Doctor NotTheNineO’ClockNews. We’re men of science. We fear no worldly terrors.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 22, 2020 5:36 pm

STAY ALERT really is the dumbest slogan ever.
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

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Gfamily
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Fri May 22, 2020 5:50 pm

The response I saw was
  • 6-7 children
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct

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Stranger Mouse
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Stranger Mouse » Fri May 22, 2020 6:10 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:36 pm
STAY ALERT really is the dumbest slogan ever.
Closely followed by "control the virus"
A caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Fri May 22, 2020 7:07 pm

Dead cat innit.

But I quite liked this one.

Image

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tenchboy
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tenchboy » Fri May 22, 2020 7:21 pm

The legs on that bed.
No way!
Wun't last two minutes.
Put it in the crap illustrations thread.

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dyqik
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Re: COVID-19

Post by dyqik » Fri May 22, 2020 8:25 pm

tenchboy wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:21 pm
The legs on that bed.
No way!
Wun't last two minutes.
Certainly not if Boris is around.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Fri May 22, 2020 8:35 pm

AMS wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:07 pm
Dead cat innit.
I've got an idea what the dead cat might have been trying to cover.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 22, 2020 8:39 pm

AMS wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:35 pm
AMS wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:07 pm
Dead cat innit.
I've got an idea what the dead cat might have been trying to cover.
I'm probably being dense but I don't know what you're talking about a dead cat for?
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 22, 2020 8:48 pm

Is everyone else up on this dead cat thing?

What's happened to the cats?

ETA ahhh this thing https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_strategy I feel like I've looked at this page before but it obviously didn't stick
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

AMS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Fri May 22, 2020 8:55 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:39 pm
AMS wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:35 pm
AMS wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:07 pm
Dead cat innit.
I've got an idea what the dead cat might have been trying to cover.
I'm probably being dense but I don't know what you're talking about a dead cat for?
Dead cat refers to an announcement meant as smokescreen or distraction from a more damaging story that you don't want making the headlines.

(In this case, the more damaging story being that Dom Cummings drove himself, his wife and kid from London to his elderly parents in Durham while symptomatic for Covid.)

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tenchboy
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tenchboy » Fri May 22, 2020 8:56 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:48 pm
Is everyone else up on this dead cat thing?

What's happened to the cats?

ETA ahhh this thing https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_strategy I feel like I've looked at this page before but it obviously didn't stick
They ran over humphrey the downing street cat whilst backing the limo out of the garage and now they're trying to distract us from that with outrageous tales of government stupidity.
I think.
ETA Oh!

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri May 22, 2020 8:58 pm

Just had a look at the

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time graph over time.

Why is it animated? and why can't they give their data as a table as well?

One thing I also note, is that their estimate of infections peaked around 1st May, which is far too late given the death rate. So I am quite dubious about their assumptions - possibly self-selection.

But if the VE day messing about has had an effect, there might be a hint of that feeding through into the figures for the last couple of days..
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 22, 2020 9:04 pm

Good, I always hated that c.nt Humphrey
When tyranny is law the Revolution is order

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