Re: COVID-19
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:50 pm
Those credible intervals are derived from the statistical analysis only, and don't seem to include the uncertainty from actual sampling effects (or lack thereof). If there are regional or temporal changes in case-report data that will also affect the estimates of R in a way the analytical results won't indicate.We use daily counts of confirmed cases reported by the European Centre for Disease Control for all analyses conducted at the national level12,13. To estimate the delay from symptom onset to reporting (once confirmed with a positive laboratory test), we use all cases from a publicly available linelist for which onset and notification dates are available13,14. This linelist combines all known linelist data from over 100 countries and at the time of writing has 4,132 entries with both an onset date and a notification date. Countries are only included in the reported estimates if at least 60 cases have been reported in a single day. This restriction reduces the likelihood of spurious estimates for countries with limited transmission or case ascertainment.
For sub-national analyses, the source of the data is reported on the respective page on our website. The data are fetched from government departments or from individuals who maintain a data source if no official data are available. Subnational entities within countries are only reported if at least 40 cases have been reported in a single day. A lower limit is possible for sub-national compared to national data due to more consistent case reporting in the source datasets.
So I guess the question for the UK context is, has contact tracing improved sufficiently to be inflating the estimates of R, or is it still totally sh.t and missing loads of asymptomatic cases?The results presented here are sensitive to changes in COVID-19 testing practices and the level of effort put into detecting COVID-19 cases, e.g. through contact tracing. For example, if numbers of incident infections remain constant but a country begins to find and report a higher proportion of cases, then an increasing value of the reproduction number will be inferred. This is because all changes in the number of cases are attributed to changes in the number of infections resulting from previously reported cases, and are not assumed to be a result of improved testing and surveillance. On the other hand, if a country reports a lower proportion of cases because a lower number of tests are performed (which can happen if reagents required for testing are no longer available, for example) or the surveillance system captures a lower proportion of infections, then the model will attribute this to a drop in the reproduction number that may not be a true reduction. In order for our estimates to be unbiased not all cases have to be reported, but the level of testing effort (and therefore the proportion of detected cases) must be constant27. This means that, whilst a change in testing effort will initially introduce bias, this will be reduced over time as long as the testing effort remains consistent from this point onwards.
Countries may also change the focus of their surveillance over the course of the outbreak. They may initially focus on identifying travellers returning from areas of known COVID-19 transmission and performing contact tracing on the contacts of known cases. As the outbreak evolves this may change to passive surveillance at hospitals. Here, the case definition may also change from tests based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to diagnoses based on symptoms and computed tomography (CT) scans. In the future, different kinds of COVID-19 tests may be deployed that could influence results, such as tests that detect both active and past infections.
And here’s the ONS report: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... nicalannexWoodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:16 pmAn important thread on the causes of UK excess deaths: https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/stat ... 33125?s=21
Suggestion that most of the ‘non-Covid’ deaths are due to undiagnosed Covid infections in elderly people.
Yes, we are odd in the SW. Although Bristol has relatively low figures for a city (last time I checked, Bath too). So I doubt it's only that. Somerset is the county that gave us Jacob Rees Mogg tho, so there's extra weird going on there.
The latest surveillance report suggests that the infection is now spreading in Bristol.FairySmall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:04 pmYes, we are odd in the SW. Although Bristol has relatively low figures for a city (last time I checked, Bath too). So I doubt it's only that. Somerset is the county that gave us Jacob Rees Mogg tho, so there's extra weird going on there.
Just to nitpick, it was North East Somerset that gave us Jacob Rees Mogg. North Somerset gave us Liam Fox, and Weston-super-Mare gave us Roger Penrose. It's a trifecta of fuckwits, all with over 50% of the vote (50.4% down 3.3%; 52.9% down 2.9% and 57.5% up 4.4% respectively at the last election).FairySmall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:04 pmYes, we are odd in the SW. Although Bristol has relatively low figures for a city (last time I checked, Bath too). So I doubt it's only that. Somerset is the county that gave us Jacob Rees Mogg tho, so there's extra weird going on there.
Nitpick away, I was being liberal in my definition of Somerset. Still think you proved my point about it being extra weird!Fishnut wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 7:50 pmJust to nitpick, it was North East Somerset that gave us Jacob Rees Mogg. North Somerset gave us Liam Fox, and Weston-super-Mare gave us Roger Penrose. It's a trifecta of fuckwits, all with over 50% of the vote (50.4% down 3.3%; 52.9% down 2.9% and 57.5% up 4.4% respectively at the last election).
Fahhhhhkkkkk, that's huge.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 7:12 amhttps://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
They’re also estimating an IFR of 23% in the over 75s.
It's widely believed in Spain that the virus got a nice boost from a big women's rights march in Madrid on 8 March, 5 days before the lockdown.Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:30 pmArticle on the experiment that is being done in Amerika of protesting during a pandemic.
https://thedispatch.com/p/were-about-to ... -about-how
Here’s the good news: Two weeks from now, we’ll know a lot more about how easily COVID-19 spreads outdoors than we do right now.
After a week of mammoth crowds clustering in cities across the nation to protest the death of Minneapolis resident George Floyd at the hands of police, many have asked the obvious question: Hey, aren’t we still in the middle of a pandemic? After two months of shutdown managed to slow the advance of the coronavirus—but not to beat it back—a sudden deluge of crowds have led to understandable fears of a resurgence.
Whilst a 2m separation might be reasonable in normal situations, in a large crowd, with the potential for multiple infected people overlaying their own contribution, especially in if moving, I'd have thought it would need to be biggersTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:58 pmIt's widely believed in Spain that the virus got a nice boost from a big women's rights march in Madrid on 8 March, 5 days before the lockdown.Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:30 pmArticle on the experiment that is being done in Amerika of protesting during a pandemic.
https://thedispatch.com/p/were-about-to ... -about-how
Here’s the good news: Two weeks from now, we’ll know a lot more about how easily COVID-19 spreads outdoors than we do right now.
After a week of mammoth crowds clustering in cities across the nation to protest the death of Minneapolis resident George Floyd at the hands of police, many have asked the obvious question: Hey, aren’t we still in the middle of a pandemic? After two months of shutdown managed to slow the advance of the coronavirus—but not to beat it back—a sudden deluge of crowds have led to understandable fears of a resurgence.
Yes, I just checked to make sure hadn't made a mistake. Would be useful to see how it compares to other countries.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:53 pmFahhhhhkkkkk, that's huge.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 7:12 amhttps://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
They’re also estimating an IFR of 23% in the over 75s.
This is the most Kiwi coronavirus slogan imaginable.basementer wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:06 amWe're lucky in our bubble, but any prick could burst it.
If it's OK with you, I'd like to cite this when I apply for citizenship.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:00 amThis is the most Kiwi coronavirus slogan imaginable.basementer wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:06 amWe're lucky in our bubble, but any prick could burst it.
My take is that the SW was largely spared early on when the pandemic arrived and whilst they are now coming down it's spreading into other areas that are much less prepared. Much like in the US, thinking about it.FairySmall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:04 pmYes, we are odd in the SW. Although Bristol has relatively low figures for a city (last time I checked, Bath too). So I doubt it's only that. Somerset is the county that gave us Jacob Rees Mogg tho, so there's extra weird going on there.
That's bad. There's a huge number of retirees in Florida.
For the world it's not so bad though - many of them are despicable racists and if they die before November, then T'rump might not get in (he only won Florida by 100k votes last time and it would have halved his electoral college victory)Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:42 pmThat's bad. There's a huge number of retirees in Florida.