COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: COVID-19

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:18 pm

Problem is though Tom, if BAME people are affected as badly in the states as over here (and they're probably suffering even more, because no NHS) then it'll be possibly helpful to Trump. Does depend though.

That is an interesting point overall though. When November comes around and covid is on the rise again, will it be older people who are more afraid to go out than younger people? Could it suppress the older, republican vote? Will trump regret going against postal votes?
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:19 pm

tom p wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:10 pm
For the world it's not so bad though - many of them are despicable racists and if they die before November, then T'rump might not get in (he only won Florida by 100k votes last time and it would have halved his electoral college victory)
That's an interesting conundrum. How will the tangerine one react if he's told failing to stop Covid-19 will literally kill his vital voter base?

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:32 pm

Meh, in Florida they churn out new racists faster than the old ones die out.

Though with the latest CNN poll at Biden 55 - Trump 41, Florida isn't even a marginal state. Texas would be.

Florida-only polls in recent weeks have Biden up by 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4 and 5. No poll has given Trump the lead since early March, before Biden was the official nominee. They like Biden in Florida because he's very centrist and very, very old. Biden vs Trump in Florida was always far better than Sanders vs Trump - which is part of the reason why the Democrats picked him.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:55 pm

I ended up in a Twitter argument with someone who was claiming that the 2017-2018 flu season was equally bad.

https://twitter.com/EndUKLockdown1/stat ... 1290703872

UK Lockdown Sceptic
@EndUKLockdown1
The following source is extremely useful. I have stunned many a lockdown supporter into silence when asking them whether they were clapping for the NHS or advocating for a lockdown in the 2017/18 winter which saw 50k excess deaths, largely from flu.
If you come across that, I've just looked at the ONS weekly deaths for 2017, 2018 and 2020, up to week 21, and plotted the deviation from the 2018 5-year average:

I left that as a reply to their tweet
ONS wk21.JPG
ONS wk21.JPG (60.99 KiB) Viewed 1074 times
It might be useful.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

underhill
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Re: COVID-19

Post by underhill » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:58 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:55 pm
I ended up in a Twitter argument with someone who was claiming that the 2017-2018 flu season was equally bad.

https://twitter.com/EndUKLockdown1/stat ... 1290703872
UK Lockdown Sceptic
@EndUKLockdown1
The following source is extremely useful. I have stunned many a lockdown supporter into silence when asking them whether they were clapping for the NHS or advocating for a lockdown in the 2017/18 winter which saw 50k excess deaths, largely from flu.
...
Or better yet, invite them to read their own souces properly. I know you have to scroll down a bit, but Excess Winter Deaths (EWD) is clearly defined. It doesn't mean what he seems to think it means.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:52 am

underhill wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:58 am
jimbob wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:55 pm
I ended up in a Twitter argument with someone who was claiming that the 2017-2018 flu season was equally bad.

https://twitter.com/EndUKLockdown1/stat ... 1290703872
UK Lockdown Sceptic
@EndUKLockdown1
The following source is extremely useful. I have stunned many a lockdown supporter into silence when asking them whether they were clapping for the NHS or advocating for a lockdown in the 2017/18 winter which saw 50k excess deaths, largely from flu.
...
Or better yet, invite them to read their own souces properly. I know you have to scroll down a bit, but Excess Winter Deaths (EWD) is clearly defined. It doesn't mean what he seems to think it means.
Yes, but that's a bit subtle. I like graphs like that which I think are pretty clear and easy to remember the shape.


I got led to that tweet by someone replying to a post I'd replied to, claiming you didn't need masks because the IFR for COVID-19 was 0.003%. I pointed out that implied that there had been 200-million people infected in the UK in order to fit his numbers.

So he changed it to 65,000 deaths a 0.1% IFR in the UK ("probably closer to 0.05%") and 25% of the population infected. Which is interesting maths.



Crossing with the "changing minds" thread, until I challenged them on the numbers, it wasn't clear *where* they were going wrong, and they were very certain that they were posting unarguable facts, and indeed at first, if one didn't look into their reasoning and assumptions, one might have wondered if they had a point.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am

And because someone else was claiming there was a lot of "deaths with" as opposed to "deaths of" COVID-19, I've modified my graph, also with week 22 data, which I think shows where the undercounting occurred.
ONS wk22 2.PNG
ONS wk22 2.PNG (53.45 KiB) Viewed 955 times
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:18 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am
And because someone else was claiming there was a lot of "deaths with" as opposed to "deaths of" COVID-19, I've modified my graph, also with week 22 data, which I think shows where the undercounting occurred.

ONS wk22 2.PNG
As mentioned upthread the ONS report suggests that the most likely explanation for the excess deaths where Covid isn't mentioned on the death certificate is undiagnosed Covid infections.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:43 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:18 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am
And because someone else was claiming there was a lot of "deaths with" as opposed to "deaths of" COVID-19, I've modified my graph, also with week 22 data, which I think shows where the undercounting occurred.

ONS wk22 2.PNG
As mentioned upthread the ONS report suggests that the most likely explanation for the excess deaths where Covid isn't mentioned on the death certificate is undiagnosed Covid infections.
Exactly, and there are know cases of untested deaths with COVID-19 symptoms that hasn't been counted, especially from the peak
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

badger
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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:42 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:42 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:59 am
Indications Florida has started secondwaving. Seems pretty straightforward - reduce lockdown without replacing it with something like test & trace, R>1, second wave.

Although Florida's unlockdown is much more unlocked than the UK's unlockdown.

Image
That's bad. There's a huge number of retirees in Florida.
Mate of mine in Florida says C-19 is "almost all in the care homes" and doesn't feel especially threatened by it (though he's by no means a denialist and wears a mask etc.). I joked that Florida is basically one big care home, which is to the point above, but I've not found any stats that breakdown the spread of the virus in care settings and outside of them for the state.

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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:12 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:52 am
underhill wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:58 am
jimbob wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:55 pm
I ended up in a Twitter argument with someone who was claiming that the 2017-2018 flu season was equally bad.

https://twitter.com/EndUKLockdown1/stat ... 1290703872



...
Or better yet, invite them to read their own souces properly. I know you have to scroll down a bit, but Excess Winter Deaths (EWD) is clearly defined. It doesn't mean what he seems to think it means.
Yes, but that's a bit subtle. I like graphs like that which I think are pretty clear and easy to remember the shape.


I got led to that tweet by someone replying to a post I'd replied to, claiming you didn't need masks because the IFR for COVID-19 was 0.003%. I pointed out that implied that there had been 200-million people infected in the UK in order to fit his numbers.

So he changed it to 65,000 deaths a 0.1% IFR in the UK ("probably closer to 0.05%") and 25% of the population infected. Which is interesting maths.



Crossing with the "changing minds" thread, until I challenged them on the numbers, it wasn't clear *where* they were going wrong, and they were very certain that they were posting unarguable facts, and indeed at first, if one didn't look into their reasoning and assumptions, one might have wondered if they had a point.

But even then you have to wonder about the apparent cui bono* about who benefits from an un-necessary lockdown. There's some fairly hardcore gnome logic going on there even if you didn't think the numbers were dodgy.

On the flip side the motivations of the lockdown denialists are fairly obvious.

In fact that imbalance seems to work for most forms of conspiracy theory denialist:-

"The Holocaust never happened says raging anti-semite, all the evidence to the contrary was planted so historians could sell books"

"AGW is a hoax says man paid money to lie by oil companies, it is all a conspiracy by the entire scientific community to get us to drive more fuel-efficient cars"

About the only (and it is pretty ropey) thing going for vaccine-denialists is at least their mad delusion has a degree of internally consistent logic.




*IIRC Latin for "incited to commit murder after listening to the intro of a U2 song"
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:51 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:43 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:18 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am
And because someone else was claiming there was a lot of "deaths with" as opposed to "deaths of" COVID-19, I've modified my graph, also with week 22 data, which I think shows where the undercounting occurred.

ONS wk22 2.PNG
As mentioned upthread the ONS report suggests that the most likely explanation for the excess deaths where Covid isn't mentioned on the death certificate is undiagnosed Covid infections.
Exactly, and there are know cases of untested deaths with COVID-19 symptoms that hasn't been counted, especially from the peak
It looks sadder than that. A lot of elderly patients appear to have died without any specific symptoms being recorded. One effect of a Covid infection is that people can suffer from hypoxia without feeling as if they have difficulty breathing. So they suffer organ failure before anyone realizes that they are very seriously ill.

plebian
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Re: COVID-19

Post by plebian » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:43 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:44 pm
Conspiracy theory... Spoiler:
More likely to be an extension of the Dems using covid to fix the election, now with death committees, killing of the pensioners to steal Florida
Pithy, well, a right helmet at least.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:49 pm

plebian wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:43 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:44 pm
Conspiracy theory... Spoiler:
More likely to be an extension of the Dems using covid to fix the election, now with death committees, killing of the pensioners to steal Florida
Makes sense. It was very clever of the Dems to have laid so much groundwork, tricking the Republicans into opposing healthcare for decades and lockdowns for months ;)
now I'm falling asleep and she's calling acab

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shpalman
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by shpalman » Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:35 pm

molto tricky

Squeak
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Squeak » Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:27 am

At risk of going all yah-boo from the other end of the world, my state has no active cases of covid-19, as of yesterday.

Across the whole of Australia, we've been getting about nine new cases a day for the last little while, but Tasmania (which did have one of the worst outbreaks in the nation) hasn't had a new case since May 15.

It turns out that properly quarantining new arrivals and contact tracing does actually work, if you do them properly.

From Wednesday, we can have gatherings of up to 80 people, though I doubt I'll be taking advantage of that freedom in any great hurry. :/

MartinDurkin
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Re: COVID-19

Post by MartinDurkin » Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:17 am

Channel 4 news earlier. "We need a regional breakdown of R number".

Channel 4 news last night. "The regional breakdown shows some regions have a higher R number than others!!!"

:roll:

FlammableFlower
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Re: COVID-19

Post by FlammableFlower » Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:45 pm

Parts of Beijing have been locked-down due to reemerging cases.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:55 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:45 pm
Parts of Beijing have been locked-down due to reemerging cases.
Yes, Portugal has also seen a bit of an uptick since the unlockdown, apparently mainly due to people from badly infected areas like Lisbon heading south and coastwards over a recent long weekend.
now I'm falling asleep and she's calling acab

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Opti
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Opti » Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:52 pm

We've had a sudden influx of people from f.ck knows where into our urb.
It's only a bit freaky bc us long term residents keep our distance still. But it's a bit disconcerting to see a lot of strange faces. And the place stinks of BBQ.
Oh well, the cats will be making new friends or enemies.
And we'll still be down the far end of the beach.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by JQH » Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:24 pm

Went for a walk in the park yesterday. Lots of people enjoying the sun.

I was the only one wearing a mask.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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discovolante
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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:25 pm

JQH wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:24 pm
Went for a walk in the park yesterday. Lots of people enjoying the sun.

I was the only one wearing a mask.
I'm not sure there's so much encouragement to wear masks outdoors though?
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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headshot
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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:40 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:25 pm
JQH wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:24 pm
Went for a walk in the park yesterday. Lots of people enjoying the sun.

I was the only one wearing a mask.
I'm not sure there's so much encouragement to wear masks outdoors though?
I've only ever worn mine indoors.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:02 pm

In Lombardy masks are mandatory both indoors and outdoors (unless you're doing strenuous exercise) until the 30th of June.

Outdoors is being taken a bit less seriously though.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by purplehaze » Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:25 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:55 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:45 pm
Parts of Beijing have been locked-down due to reemerging cases.
Yes, Portugal has also seen a bit of an uptick since the unlockdown, apparently mainly due to people from badly infected areas like Lisbon heading south and coastwards over a recent long weekend.
Here in Cheshire East, Cheshire the R rate is above 1 and unfortunately the rate of infection has risen from low - 3 per day to now 10 per day.

It's expected to rise more.

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