COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:32 pm

Not sure whether going up is good or bad. But something or other is going up fast in California, Texas and Florida.

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Gentleman Jim
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:30 am

Just to re-inforce what most here know or suspect
Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?

In summary, there are large differences in patterns of per-capita deaths in different countries that are difficult to reconcile with herd immunity arguments but are easily explained by the timing and stringency of interventions. Seroprevalence studies also provide an independent source of information that is highly consistent with mortality data. The herd immunity argument is therefore at odds with both mortality and seroprevalence data, whereas the intervention argument provides a parsimonious explanation for both.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... X/fulltext
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:20 am

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:30 am
Just to re-inforce what most here know or suspect
Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?

In summary, there are large differences in patterns of per-capita deaths in different countries that are difficult to reconcile with herd immunity arguments but are easily explained by the timing and stringency of interventions. Seroprevalence studies also provide an independent source of information that is highly consistent with mortality data. The herd immunity argument is therefore at odds with both mortality and seroprevalence data, whereas the intervention argument provides a parsimonious explanation for both.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... X/fulltext
Italy seems to be stuck at about 200-300 new cases per day (testing about 30,000 individuals per day) although some of these are being described as "weakly positive" apparently. They're mostly (i.e. about two thirds of them) in Lombardy and it might even be trending upwards over the past two weeks or so. Deaths per day in the whole of the country seem to be gently decreasing but are still at the level of 60-70 per day. 20-30 are in Lombardy but not obviously going decreasing.
molto tricky

bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:03 am

A new outbreak in China focused on another food market...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ood-market

Apparently, samples from chopping boards used to handle salmon have tested positive. Chinese officials are emphasising the "imported" nature of the salmon. But I suppose it could be from respiratory droplets landing on the boards - or from fecal fomites due to poor hand hygiene.

The way SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have developed around food markets, and on cruise ships (both quite well ventilated) does tend to fit with an oral rather than respiratory route of infection (although of course the fomites could have a respiratory origin ). These are the places you commonly see fomite-mediated outbreaks of other viruses.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:15 pm

Trump's Tulsa rally is going to be very, erm, interesting. Let's put ~19,000* people indoors in close proximity with lots of shouting...

Considering that quite a few outbreaks have been tracked back to large gatherings (church, funeral attendance etc), surely there's lots of interest in seeing what happens with a large event that is in the calendar.

*Assuming they come. Trump, being Trump, has massively hyped it, saying hundreds of thousands want to attend.

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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:29 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:15 pm
Trump's Tulsa rally is going to be very, erm, interesting. Let's put ~19,000* people indoors in close proximity with lots of shouting...

Considering that quite a few outbreaks have been tracked back to large gatherings (church, funeral attendance etc), surely there's lots of interest in seeing what happens with a large event that is in the calendar.

*Assuming they come. Trump, being Trump, has massively hyped it, saying hundreds of thousands want to attend.
Any entrepreneurs in the area want to make a quick buck flogging them "Presidentially Approved" anti-COVID bleach?

Just a few mouthfuls and you are 100% guaranteed to never be concerned about COVID-19 ever again, or your money back!!!
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by tom p » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:59 pm

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:29 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:15 pm
Trump's Tulsa rally is going to be very, erm, interesting. Let's put ~19,000* people indoors in close proximity with lots of shouting...

Considering that quite a few outbreaks have been tracked back to large gatherings (church, funeral attendance etc), surely there's lots of interest in seeing what happens with a large event that is in the calendar.

*Assuming they come. Trump, being Trump, has massively hyped it, saying hundreds of thousands want to attend.
Any entrepreneurs in the area want to make a quick buck flogging them "Presidentially Approved" anti-COVID bleach?

Just a few mouthfuls and you are 100% guaranteed to never be concerned about COVID-19 ever again, or your money back!!!
No. Let the hateful scum go home and infect and kill their families.
The only good Trump supporter is a dead Trump supporter, with dead family and everything they love crushed into tiny pieces.

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:31 pm

And let them say they died fighting for the flag they love. The confederate flag.
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:37 am

They had a special exemption

Maybe the virus didn't understand.
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FlammableFlower
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Re: COVID-19

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:57 am

It's things like that that's going to really curtail a lot of things for the UK if the rest of the world starts to get to grips with COVID-19.

We should be having a holiday in northern Italy at the end of August... have been keeping fingers crossed that it might happen, but the way things are going the UK is going to be the leper of Europe and we'll not be allowed out.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:46 am

It's a really sad story. They flew all the way to New Zealand to see a dying parent, but weren't allowed out of isolation in time to see them before they died:
They stayed in a managed isolation hotel in Auckland and on 12 June applied for an exemption to visit their dying parent - who died later that night.

They were granted permission to travel to Wellington on 13 June.

One of the women had "mild symptoms", but put this down to a pre-existing condition.

They travelled to Wellington in a private vehicle and did not use any public facilities during this journey, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, director-general of health, said on Tuesday,

They stayed with a single family member in Wellington. That family member has now been placed in self-isolation.

The women were tested on Monday and the results were confirmed on Tuesday.

Dr Bloomfield added that going forward, he had asked for "anyone being released for compassionate exemption [to be] tested and [have] a negative result" before they are released.
Sounds like they did everything right. No evidence they infected anybody else. But compassionate exemptions are still cancelled for everybody - is that not a bit of an overreaction?

It's totally different to holidays (which are going to be very difficult for people who can't take 4+ weeks off work to do the necessary isolation at both ends).
now I'm falling asleep and she's calling acab

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Gentleman Jim
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:08 pm

A cheap and widely available drug called dexamethasone can help save the lives of patients who are seriously ill with coronavirus.

UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment is major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.

The drug is part of the world's biggest trial testing existing treatments to see if they also work for coronavirus.

Researchers estimate that if the drug had been available in the UK from the start of the coronavirus pandemic up to 5,000 lives could have been saved. Because it is cheap, it could also be of huge benefit in poor countries struggling with high numbers of Covid-19 patients.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:51 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:57 am
It's things like that that's going to really curtail a lot of things for the UK if the rest of the world starts to get to grips with COVID-19.

We should be having a holiday in northern Italy at the end of August... have been keeping fingers crossed that it might happen, but the way things are going the UK is going to be the leper of Europe and we'll not be allowed out.
It certainly makes more sense at this stage for most countries to be quarantining visitors from Britain on the way in, than for Britain to be quarantining people on the way back.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:54 pm

Italy today reports 210 new cases, and 34 deaths.

UK today reports 1279 new cases, and 233 deaths.

Italy had numbers like that more than one month ago, at the beginning of May.

Ok so there's daily variation in the reported numbers (the government did make the most of it yesterday when there were "only" 38 deaths) but the 7-day average is at least 155 per day in the UK vs. 60 in Italy.
molto tricky

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headshot
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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:10 pm

shpalman wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:54 pm
Italy today reports 210 new cases, and 34 deaths.

UK today reports 1279 new cases, and 233 deaths.

Italy had numbers like that more than one month ago, at the beginning of May.
At last! The UK is finally 4-5 weeks behind Italy!!

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:40 pm

The UK is long past its former glories at the top of the charts, but still puts in a creditable performance.

The Middle East is charging up, competing for attention with Central America, but South America still dominates the battle of the regions. (ETA: god knows what's really happening in Africa.)
.
Looks at this stage that the ultimate contest will be India vs USA. India has the population, but the USA has Trump.

In Western Europe both UK and Sweden continue to dominate, with a lot of clear water between them and France in 3rd place.

Cases per day (average for the last 7 days)

130,809 World
25,837 Brazil
21,834 United States
10,928 India
8,650 Russia
5,801 Pakistan
5,799 Chile
4,757 Peru
4,309 Mexico
3,824 Saudi Arabia
3,236 South Africa
3,159 Bangladesh
2,292 Iran
1,763 Colombia
1,549 Egypt
1,351 United Kingdom
1,309 Argentina
1,244 Turkey
1,119 Iraq
1,037 Indonesia
1,036 Sweden
747 Belarus
732 Bolivia
653 Panama
621 Ukraine
564 Philippines
563 Ecuador
560 Kuwait
534 Armenia
455 France
449 Dominican Republic
415 Canada
396 Guatemala
390 Honduras
375 Poland
360 Singapore
350 Azerbaijan
342 Spain
328 Germany
307 Portugal

303 Kazakhstan
296 Moldova
287 Italy

223 Romania
178 Israel
149 Netherlands
143 Macedonia
121 Puerto Rico
109 Algeria
107 Belgium
103 El Salvador
84 Venezuela
76 Bulgaria
67 Serbia
60 Kyrgyzstan
57 Costa Rica
54 Japan
52 Czech Republic
47 Albania
43 South Korea
36 Denmark
32 Kosovo
27 Bosnia and Herzegovina
26 China
25 Austria
24 Malaysia
23 Switzerland
16 Ireland
15 Finland
12 Greece
12 Norway
10 Australia
9 Hungary
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:54 pm

What are the bolded countries?


I'm very interested to see how the Copa de America final - USA vs Brazil - plays out.

Both have insane moron presidents who have turned the pandemic into a political issue.

Both have enormously unequal societies, including high levels of urban poverty, with a lot of the inequity dividing along racial lines.

One of them is the richest country in the history of the world, with world-leading medical practitioners and researchers.

In the other, those sectors are doing their best but are considerably under-resourced. And Bolsonaro chucked out all the Cuban medics at the start of his presidency, in case people somehow got the impression that some communists might be more competent than him.

It does feel very ghoulish to be treating this as a spectator sport :(
now I'm falling asleep and she's calling acab

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:13 pm

The bolded ones were just those I thought interesting when scanning through. E.g. I highlighted Portugal because some bloke lives there.

It's an incredibly depressing list. Totally global - except, ironically, China and the East. Quite a few countries totalling f.cking it up. Other countries unlocking with high & untraceable daily cases.
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:16 pm

I thought that was it, thanks.

Mexico is also really f.cking up, thanks again to a useless populist leader, but has a small enough population not to be making headlines.
now I'm falling asleep and she's calling acab

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Re: COVID-19

Post by dyqik » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:05 pm

Right now Arizona is conducting a fun experiment: What happens if you have to evacuate a load of people, from an area full of retirees, because of wildfires during a spike in coronavirus infections.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by bmforre » Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:54 am

Large demonstration, just 1 infected. Report in Norwegian.

Demonstration was 5. June so infections wold be visible by now.

Report from Copenhagen after 15 000 demonstrated also shows just 1 person infected.

Norway and Denmark both have low infection numbers.
Sweden have high numbers and just reported a considerable local flare-up.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:15 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... h-councils

Map showing which areas have the most excess deaths.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:34 pm

molto tricky

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Gentleman Jim
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:20 am

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:15 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... h-councils

Map showing which areas have the most excess deaths.
sh.t - it includes my council area and we are not even a city area
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:11 pm

If you stay 1 metre from me plus I stay 1 metre from you that's 2 metres, right?

Well I assume that's what '1 metre plus' means.
molto tricky

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