COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:39 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:47 am
Brightonian wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:20 pm
when I am wearing a mask I get the feeling others instinctively think "Nutter! Avoid!" when they see me.
Or it could be that others see you are being more careful and want to respect your choice by keeping away from you and only getting near to people who clearly care less.
... which is effectively the opposite of a good strategy, i.e. go close to someone who is protecting their environment by wearing a mask and stay away from people who aren't. Rather, they might be seeing someone wearing a mask and assume they are symptomatic and want to stay away. As if someone symptomatic should be out of their house at all.

But then if those people aren't wearing masks either then they may have a limitation in their mental capacity to simultaneously retain multiple pieces of information in working memory for rational decision making so what do they know.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:00 pm

Talking of limitations to mental capacity (and apols if this has been done elsewhere), but am sure you will all be surprised and delighted to find out how wrong you all are in your Coronanalyses, courtesy of none other than Toby Young.

(Various bad science trigger warnings, continue at your own risk, etc.))

When we have herd immunity Boris will face a reckoning on this pointless and damaging lockdown

At the beginning of March, a lively debate took place about whether Britain should pursue a strategy of "herd immunity" – allowing coronavirus to spread until so many people had developed antibodies that it no longer posed a threat to public health – or place the entire country under lockdown. As is well-known, Boris Johnson initially embraced the former, saying the public needed to take the virus "on the chin", then performed a U-turn and imposed a full lockdown on March 23.

But recent data coming out of New York reveals that this was a false dichotomy. Sixty-eight per cent of people who took antibody tests at a clinic in the corona neighbourhood of Queens received positive results, suggesting that, in this area at least, the population is already close to achieving "herd immunity". This is in spite of the fact that New York imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the United States.

This fits with other data showing that the life cycle of the epidemic in each region or country where there’s been a viral outbreak follows a very similar pattern, regardless of whether or not a lockdown was imposed or how severe it was. For instance, if you plot the rise and fall in the number of new cases in Sweden on a graph, and then compare it to the same data in the UK, the two lines are almost identical, in spite of the fact that Sweden never imposed a lockdown. The same is true if you compare the trajectory of the virus in the 43 US states that locked down with the seven that didn’t.


In one respect, this is good news: it means a "second wave" of Covid-19 is unlikely and we can dispense with pointless social distancing measures, such as mandatory masks on public transport. The reason the number of new cases dwindles away to almost nothing after a fixed period of time – literally nothing in some regions – is probably because the majority of the population has been exposed to it, not because transmission has been interrupted by imprisoning people in their homes.

This isn’t immediately obvious because most people who catch the virus are asymptomatic, but that appears to be what’s happening. Some will have developed antibodies without knowing they had the disease, while others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold. People in that latter category will be immune even though they won’t test positive for Covid-19 antibodies. That means that the population of London is probably approaching herd immunity, even though only 17 per cent tested positive in the most recent seroprevalence survey.


But the bad news – at least from the Government’s point of view – is that this means the lockdown was unnecessary. So the loss of life that will result from suspending cancer screening programmes and postponing operations will turn out to have been avoidable, as will the catastrophic economic damage.

As it becomes clearer that the British population will soon achieve herd immunity, just as the population of Corona has, and the lockdown has done nothing to mitigate the impact of the virus, people will begin to ask tough questions of the Government. And Boris won’t be able to say we only know this now with the benefit of hindsight because he recognised the wisdom of the "herd immunity" strategy back in March. Whatever his excuse is, it will have to be better than that if the Conservatives are going to survive the reckoning.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:58 pm

That means that the population of London is probably approaching herd immunity, even though only 17 per cent tested positive in the most recent seroprevalence survey.
I'm surprised Toby can even hear his dreary internal monologue over the cognitive dissonance exhibited in writing that sentence.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:30 pm

Christ that is one hell of a word salad.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:53 pm

This fits with other data showing that the life cycle of the epidemic in each region or country where there’s been a viral outbreak follows a very similar pattern, regardless of whether or not a lockdown was imposed or how severe it was. For instance, if you plot the rise and fall in the number of new cases in Sweden on a graph, and then compare it to the same data in the UK, the two lines are almost identical, in spite of the fact that Sweden never imposed a lockdown. The same is true if you compare the trajectory of the virus in the 43 US states that locked down with the seven that didn’t.
WUT?

New Zealand had an outbreak. It's a completely different shape to the US or to the UK or Sweden
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:20 pm

TopSciencyExpertWhoKnowsEverything wrote:if you plot the rise and fall in the number of new cases in Sweden on a graph, and then compare it to the same data in the UK, the two lines are almost identical

Here's UK and Sweden cases (weekly figures). I've chucked in Norway and Finland for fun.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... BR~NOR~FIN

My eyesight needs testing on a drive to Barnard's Castle, but these lines do not look the same to me.

But perhaps this expert was talking about cases per population size?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tota ... OR~SWE~GBR

Oh, no alignment, again.

Ah, I know, he must be a mathematician, always using log scales. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people on a log scale will surely show identical lines.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new- ... OR~SWE~GBR

Damn it. I must be doing something wrong. Why can't I get the UK and Sweden lines to be identical? I feel such a fool.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jdc » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:02 pm

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:58 pm
That means that the population of London is probably approaching herd immunity, even though only 17 per cent tested positive in the most recent seroprevalence survey.
I'm surprised Toby can even hear his dreary internal monologue over the cognitive dissonance exhibited in writing that sentence.
But that sentence comes right after the bit why he explains how you can have herd immunity to this coronavirus by adding people with covid immunity to people with common cold coronavirus immunity. Surely there's no dissonance if you believe that a f.ckload of people have pre-existing immunity (whether that belief is itself reasonable is another matter)?
others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold. People in that latter category will be immune even though they won’t test positive for Covid-19 antibodies.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:52 pm

Surely what's wrong with this sentence:
Some will have developed antibodies without knowing they had the disease, while others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold.
is that it makes it sound as if anyone who's had a cold will also be immune Covid-19.

But the 'common cold' is not one thing. It's a mild upper respiratory infection, caused by many, many viruses. Maybe something like ~15% of colds are coronaviruses, so most colds are unlikely to confer any immunity to Covid.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:01 pm

raven wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:52 pm
Surely what's wrong with this sentence:
Some will have developed antibodies without knowing they had the disease, while others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold.
is that it makes it sound as if anyone who's had a cold will also be immune Covid-19.

But the 'common cold' is not one thing. It's a mild upper respiratory infection, caused by many, many viruses. Maybe something like ~15% of colds are coronaviruses, so most colds are unlikely to confer any immunity to Covid.
Enough with the facts, raven. We've all fought off the common cold, so we all have immunity to c-19 already. Am surprised you haven't worked that out yet. It's there in black and white in a broadsheet newspaper. There are only dead people because we locked down. Or something. What?! Look, I don't know, ask Toby Young and don't make me wear a mask, okay?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:02 pm

raven wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:52 pm
Surely what's wrong with this sentence:
Some will have developed antibodies without knowing they had the disease, while others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold.
is that it makes it sound as if anyone who's had a cold will also be immune Covid-19.

But the 'common cold' is not one thing. It's a mild upper respiratory infection, caused by many, many viruses. Maybe something like ~15% of colds are coronaviruses, so most colds are unlikely to confer any immunity to Covid.
Some of them might. Whether or not the referenced paper holds up, the idea was out there.

Stop assuming that just because it's someone you don't like that everything they say is wrong.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:11 pm

Stop assuming that I think everything Toby Young says is wrong because I don't like him. I think he's wrong because what he's saying is incoherent, poorly expressed and disagrees with what I've read elsewhere :lol:

(Somewhere on this here forum is a post of mine saying I heard something early in all this about viruses circulating in the 80s that might confer some immunity. Whether that was true or wishful thinking I still have no idea, but it might possibly explain asymptomatic Covid.)

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:43 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:20 pm
TopSciencyExpertWhoKnowsEverything wrote:if you plot the rise and fall in the number of new cases in Sweden on a graph, and then compare it to the same data in the UK, the two lines are almost identical

Here's UK and Sweden cases (weekly figures). I've chucked in Norway and Finland for fun.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... BR~NOR~FIN

My eyesight needs testing on a drive to Barnard's Castle, but these lines do not look the same to me.

But perhaps this expert was talking about cases per population size?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tota ... OR~SWE~GBR

Oh, no alignment, again.

Ah, I know, he must be a mathematician, always using log scales. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people on a log scale will surely show identical lines.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new- ... OR~SWE~GBR

Damn it. I must be doing something wrong. Why can't I get the UK and Sweden lines to be identical? I feel such a fool.

It's also instructive to compare Sweden with the other Scandinavian countries:

And just for fun, I've added in the US, which of course has a rather different shape with the second peak just starting to show up in the deaths statistics.

Normalised per 100,000 people
Ec03WLVXgAEV1RI.png
Ec03WLVXgAEV1RI.png (6.45 KiB) Viewed 323 times
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Brightonian » Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:54 pm

Face masks to be compulsory in shops in England from 24 July, with fines for non-compliance:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-12027960

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:20 pm

Is tomorrow 24 July?

No it isn't. What possible reason to wait?
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:54 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:20 pm
Is tomorrow 24 July?

No it isn't. What possible reason to wait?
Because he's an idiot
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:00 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:20 pm
Is tomorrow 24 July?

No it isn't. What possible reason to wait?
Because he's an idiot
Not everyone's on next day delivery of face masks from Amazon
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:01 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:00 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:20 pm
Is tomorrow 24 July?

No it isn't. What possible reason to wait?
Because he's an idiot
Not everyone's on next day delivery of face masks from Amazon
So only a couple of months too late, not days
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:44 pm

In other news, Mexico is now fourth place globally for numbers of coronavirus deaths, overtaking Italy, but still behind UK, Brazil and USA.

Population is 120 mill so not so crazy awful per capita (16th in the world) but on the other hand testing is pretty pants.

Maybe there are times when evidence-denying populist governments are a handy thing to have, but apparently "during a lethal viral pandemic" isn't one of them.
Last edited by Bird on a Fire on Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:50 pm

Born at 356.32 ppm CO2

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:00 am

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:00 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:20 pm
Is tomorrow 24 July?

No it isn't. What possible reason to wait?
Because he's an idiot
Not everyone's on next day delivery of face masks from Amazon
They sell boxes of 50 in Tescos.

So easy to say "wear a mask from tomorrow, by 24th we'll have a law in place with fines".
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:19 am

jdc wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:02 pm
Little waster wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:58 pm
That means that the population of London is probably approaching herd immunity, even though only 17 per cent tested positive in the most recent seroprevalence survey.
I'm surprised Toby can even hear his dreary internal monologue over the cognitive dissonance exhibited in writing that sentence.
But that sentence comes right after the bit why he explains how you can have herd immunity to this coronavirus by adding people with covid immunity to people with common cold coronavirus immunity. Surely there's no dissonance if you believe that a f.ckload of people have pre-existing immunity (whether that belief is itself reasonable is another matter)?
others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold. People in that latter category will be immune even though they won’t test positive for Covid-19 antibodies.
Ah but the putative “already-immune” would have been picked up in the 17% identified by the seroprevalence study so the tricky bit remains trying to tally his own quoted 17% value with the supposed 80% of us who are now wandering around happily-unaware we have even had it.

Unless we are supposed to believe that the already-immune have some sort of antibody that can fight COVID but not the sort that turn up in antibody tests for COVID? :?

Personally I believe Toby’s article is an excellent advert for the strong ethos of literacy and numeracy he promoted in his vanity project Free School.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Vertigowooyay » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:25 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:00 am
Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:00 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:54 pm


Because he's an idiot
Not everyone's on next day delivery of face masks from Amazon
They sell boxes of 50 in Tescos.

So easy to say "wear a mask from tomorrow, by 24th we'll have a law in place with fines".
And already social media is awash with the fuckwits spouting their freemen of the land arseholery about how it’s not law, or advice on how to lie about a medical condition that means you don’t have to wear one, or scare story b.llsh.t about hypoxia.

I despair. How did we become a f.ck-you country? “Well I don’t see why I should close my curtains in this blackout”.
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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:33 am

Relax. 100% is not necessary.

This will take it to 80%, the remainder will feel stared at, a bit of piss-taking will drive it to 90%. Society can cope with a few nutters.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:48 am

Little waster wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:19 am
Ah but the putative “already-immune” would have been picked up in the 17% identified by the seroprevalence study so the tricky bit remains trying to tally his own quoted 17% value with the supposed 80% of us who are now wandering around happily-unaware we have even had it.

Unless we are supposed to believe that the already-immune have some sort of antibody that can fight COVID but not the sort that turn up in antibody tests for COVID? :?
We already know that the antibodies to covid don't hang around all that long after infection, but those are just the specific anti-covid antibodies. There may be antibodies which are less specific and aren't picked up by those tests. But longer-lasting immunity may be conferred by T-cells.

The article is of course a load of sh.t, because it's lockdowns which have limited the number of infections, not saturation of the susceptible population, but ideas about pre-existing partial immunity due to exposure to other coronaviruses have been put forward to explain why some people die and others are asymptomatic (and everything in between) and similarly the idea of how long immunity lasts and if those particular antibodies are the whole story is really quite important to be looking at unless we want to be giving booster shots to the entire population every three months.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lew Dolby » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:50 am

Couldn't us mask-wearers just knock seven tonnes of sh.t out of non-mask-wearers and call it self-defence ??

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