COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:52 am

Helicopter clattering overhead prompted me to look it up on flightradar24: Air ambulance, flew here straight as an arrow from Cambridge and just landed in the park next to our GPs surgery. That feels unnervingly close to home.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:01 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:52 am
Helicopter clattering overhead prompted me to look it up on flightradar24: Air ambulance, flew here straight as an arrow from Cambridge and just landed in the park next to our GPs surgery. That feels unnervingly close to home.
Over the Weekend (I've not been out since) I saw about 5 ambulances in a couple of hours.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Gfamily
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:55 pm

A visualisation of global deaths due to various causes (Diabetes, TB, Malaria ) and Covid
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
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bjn
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bjn » Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:57 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:50 am
Couldn't us mask-wearers just knock seven tonnes of sh.t out of non-mask-wearers and call it self-defence ??
You’d need to use sticks over 6’ long, ie Quarterstaves. Then disinfect the business end.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:25 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:57 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:50 am
Couldn't us mask-wearers just knock seven tonnes of sh.t out of non-mask-wearers and call it self-defence ??
You’d need to use sticks over 6’ long, ie Quarterstaves. Then disinfect the business end.
No.

You could just use a silver one
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pm

Meanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.

The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July

So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number

Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide
Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png (31.78 KiB) Viewed 526 times
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:59 pm

Yes, I got the same when I took a quick look - a hint of an uptick.

Could easily be just random noise.
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:16 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:59 pm
Yes, I got the same when I took a quick look - a hint of an uptick.

Could easily be just random noise.
It's getting towards the time where it's less likely. At the moment it's like making 40 coin tosses, and getting 37 tails. Then you toss three heads in a row.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:21 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:59 pm
Yes, I got the same when I took a quick look - a hint of an uptick.

Could easily be just random noise.
The Covidzoe app data is also showing an upturn; I tend to think that's the most likely to be the fastest, reliable indicator due to the sheer numbers involved.
SmartSelect_20200715-091855_Chrome.jpg
SmartSelect_20200715-091855_Chrome.jpg (287.79 KiB) Viewed 464 times
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Re: COVID-19

Post by JQH » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:25 am

Gfamily wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:55 pm
A visualisation of global deaths due to various causes (Diabetes, TB, Malaria ) and Covid
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
Interesting. But it gives total deaths so far as 4.6 million. Given the world population is something like 7.7 billion I would have thought the total would be in the tens of millions.

This would appear to agree with me:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/W ... death-rate
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discovolante
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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:51 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pm
Meanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.

The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July

So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number

Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide

Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
Sorry I know I'm not saying anything helpful or original here, but FFS we are going to have to wait at least a month for anything to actually be done about it aren't we.

ETA sorry again for being all oooh get me I'm in Scotland but might this genuinely be a good time to start breaking down figures in England and Wales against Scotland? Scotland now allows shops to open and is allowing people to visit each other indoors, but masks in public places indoors already compulsory. I have no idea how compliance levels will compare from 24 July though. I know there are other differences in Scotland but would it be helpful to make this comparison to see what measures within the UK are helpful to reducing transmission?

Edit again to add 'indoors'
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Gfamily
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:52 am

JQH wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:25 am
Gfamily wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:55 pm
A visualisation of global deaths due to various causes (Diabetes, TB, Malaria ) and Covid
From Jan to July
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... 22Aw-grQxo
Interesting. But it gives total deaths so far as 4.6 million. Given the world population is something like 7.7 billion I would have thought the total would be in the tens of millions.

This would appear to agree with me:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/W ... death-rate
Yes, it is selective as the visualisation only counts certain causes, so many of the big ones (COPD, heart disease, stroke, cancer) etc are excluded.

For reference, Diabetes (top of this visualisation) is #7 in the list of major causes worldwide - with about 1.6 million of the 57 million deaths in 2016.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-shee ... s-of-death
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:08 am

discovolante wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:51 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pm
Meanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.

The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July

So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number

Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide

Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
Sorry I know I'm not saying anything helpful or original here, but FFS we are going to have to wait at least a month for anything to actually be done about it aren't we.

ETA sorry again for being all oooh get me I'm in Scotland but might this genuinely be a good time to start breaking down figures in England and Wales against Scotland? Scotland now allows shops to open and is allowing people to visit each other indoors, but masks in public places indoors already compulsory. I have no idea how compliance levels will compare from 24 July though. I know there are other differences in Scotland but would it be helpful to make this comparison to see what measures within the UK are helpful to reducing transmission?

Edit again to add 'indoors'
Indeed, and look at Israel for what happens after premature relaxations. There are several lags that the UK government doesn't seem to have any concept of. Let alone exponential growth.

Hopefully, if R is only a little above 1, it is not going to be as fast as the first peak.


The trend has continued since this date
Image
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:32 am

discovolante wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:51 am
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:42 pm
Meanwhile it looks as though UK infections have bottomed out and have started to rise again.

The UK figures seem almost as though aimed at making it hard to do simple analyses, with the negative 29726 cases on Friday 3rd July

So I've looked at the numbers since May31st and plotted the cases for the week against week number

Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide

Ec6fn-VWkAcBODm.png
Sorry I know I'm not saying anything helpful or original here, but FFS we are going to have to wait at least a month for anything to actually be done about it aren't we.

ETA sorry again for being all oooh get me I'm in Scotland but might this genuinely be a good time to start breaking down figures in England and Wales against Scotland? Scotland now allows shops to open and is allowing people to visit each other indoors, but masks in public places indoors already compulsory. I have no idea how compliance levels will compare from 24 July though. I know there are other differences in Scotland but would it be helpful to make this comparison to see what measures within the UK are helpful to reducing transmission?

Edit again to add 'indoors'
Total cases so far in England: 250,000 and running at about 500 per day.

Total cases so far in Scotland: 18,368 and running at about 10 per day.

It's difficult to see them both on the same y-axis. There's only a factor of 10 difference in populations but even rescaling for that Scotland is doing 5-times "better" than England.

I get the numbers daily from some github somewhere (although NI hasn't been updated there for a couple of weeks). The England+Scotland+Wales+NI total matches the UK total better now since about 30,000 positives were taken off the UK total for double-counting or some such.
molto tricky

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TimW
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TimW » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:51 am

Matt Hancock's got it covered:
As a country we have made great strides towards beating this virus but we mustn't take our foot off the pedal

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discovolante
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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:02 am

TimW wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:51 am
Matt Hancock's got it covered:
As a country we have made great strides towards beating this virus but we mustn't take our foot off the pedal
Image
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:52 am

Lew Dolby wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:50 am
Couldn't us mask-wearers just knock seven tonnes of sh.t out of non-mask-wearers and call it self-defence ??
By the way, don't do this.

You don't want to end up on the news as being the one who beat up someone who had a good medical reason* for not wearing a mask. Just like those who ranted at a nurse who finally had 5 minutes to sit outside after a 72 hour shift or whatever it was. In that case you'd be the one demonstrating a limitation in your mental capacity to simultaneously retain multiple pieces of information in working memory for rational decision making.

* - good medical reasons do exist, although most of the whiny entitled little individuals complaining about masks have a limitation in their mental capacity etc.
molto tricky

Lew Dolby
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lew Dolby » Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:28 pm

was only joking - really. Apart from being a firm believer that violence never solves anything, I'm turned seventy with a number of (minor-ish) physical problems so ain't really in a position to beat anyone up.

But I would expect anyone with valid reasons to be mask-less to be happy to keep a decent distance from others.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Turdly » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:21 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:39 pm
Seems I was born with a rebellion gene, so I wear my mask with pride.

A friend of mine is making some lovely cloth masks if anyone is interested: www.masksbybean.com
I bought some. They are nice, mine has elephants on.
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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:55 pm

Remember how the government said they were simply following the science regarding the lockdown.
SAGE advised government to impose lockdown on 16 or 18 March

(The government’s chief scientific adviser) Vallance told the committee that SAGE advised the government to impose lockdown measures “as soon as possible” on the 16 or 18 March.

He said this happened as soon as data showed further restrictions were needed. “Looking back, you can see the data may have preceded that but the data was not available before that.”

Scientists realised in mid-March that “we were further ahead in the epidemic than had been thought”.

Start of lockdown: 26th March
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:42 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:55 pm
Remember how the government said they were simply following the science regarding the lockdown.
SAGE advised government to impose lockdown on 16 or 18 March

(The government’s chief scientific adviser) Vallance told the committee that SAGE advised the government to impose lockdown measures “as soon as possible” on the 16 or 18 March.

He said this happened as soon as data showed further restrictions were needed. “Looking back, you can see the data may have preceded that but the data was not available before that.”

Scientists realised in mid-March that “we were further ahead in the epidemic than had been thought”.
Well I'm sure he's telling them that now but I don't remember him saying it at the time.

Ah, 16th of March is when Neil "I thought I was immune" Ferguson showed them a graph with a calibrated scale on the y-axis.

Because on the 13-14th of March, Vallance was still being obviously wrong.
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PeteB
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Re: COVID-19

Post by PeteB » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:50 pm

hmm - that's not what the minutes / supporting documents say

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Grumble
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:00 pm

Rumoured that the government will ask everyone to go back to work tomorrow.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:00 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:00 pm
Rumoured that the government will ask everyone to go back to work tomorrow.
Without masks. f.cking madness. Frau HS has pretty serious asthma and her office has recycled air with no opening windows.

How do they propose keeping people safe from asymptomatic transmission?

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FairySmall
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Re: COVID-19

Post by FairySmall » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:08 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:00 pm
Rumoured that the government will ask everyone to go back to work tomorrow.
F*ck that (my office isn't even open so it's a moot point for me. But still...)

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