COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:43 am

Yes, that brings it home BOAF.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:58 am

Dad and I were discussing some of the restrictions last night.

Having worked on the 1967 Foot and Mouth outbreak as a new graduate in MAFF, at a time when the viral transimssion was thought to be via animal vectors*, he tends to assume restrictions are not put in place fast enough, and wait for too long whilst evidence is collected.

He mentioned the French regulations, where you can take your mask off to smoke. His observation was that if you can smell cigarette smoke, you've got smoke particles (and presumably carriers for viral particles) from the smoker's lungs to your nose.

His other (off-topic) observation was on the mounds you see on the East Kent marshes. They're from an anthrax outbreak, where the cattle couldn't be buried due to the high water table, so were covered in lime in these mounds. Which are now acting as rabbit warrens.




*but when the people on the ground were saying that it was airborne, and predicting the next affected farms by looking at the wind direction.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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headshot
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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:42 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:58 am
He mentioned the French regulations, where you can take your mask off to smoke. His observation was that if you can smell cigarette smoke, you've got smoke particles (and presumably carriers for viral particles) from the smoker's lungs to your nose.
I was thinking about this the other day as I followed someone who was vaping. Enormous clouds of vape were exiting his lungs and hanging in the air, so I crossed the road to prevent walking into it.

I assume that oily/moist vape clouds are quite good at hosting viral particles in them.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:02 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:42 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:58 am
He mentioned the French regulations, where you can take your mask off to smoke. His observation was that if you can smell cigarette smoke, you've got smoke particles (and presumably carriers for viral particles) from the smoker's lungs to your nose.
I was thinking about this the other day as I followed someone who was vaping. Enormous clouds of vape were exiting his lungs and hanging in the air, so I crossed the road to prevent walking into it.

I assume that oily/moist vape clouds are quite good at hosting viral particles in them.
I'd guess they would be even better than smoke particles as they are cooler.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:56 pm

UK official cases:

1 August 574 per day (7 day average)
31 August 1,261 per day

= 2.2x increase in a month

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/week ... untry=~GBR

The ONS claim cases are stable across August and R is 0.9 to 1.1.

This may of course be true (spoiler, it isn't) but if it is true in means the UK testing program improved by 2.2x across August.

So let's look at the testing data.

Tests per 100,000 people:

1 August 189
26 August 247

= 1.3x

Tests per confirmed case (7 day average):

1 August 224
26 August 157

= 1/1.4x

So, very roughly, only half the increase in official cases is due to testing, the other half is a genuine increase. And this mismatch with "R=0.9 to 1.1" is pretty shameful.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:44 am

headshot wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:42 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:58 am
He mentioned the French regulations, where you can take your mask off to smoke. His observation was that if you can smell cigarette smoke, you've got smoke particles (and presumably carriers for viral particles) from the smoker's lungs to your nose.
I was thinking about this the other day as I followed someone who was vaping. Enormous clouds of vape were exiting his lungs and hanging in the air, so I crossed the road to prevent walking into it.

I assume that oily/moist vape clouds are quite good at hosting viral particles in them.
There's no reason to suppose your risk would be any lower than if they had not been vaping. When you go out, you could usefully imagine everyone around you is vaping and you're trying to avoid breathing in the visible exhalations. That should help you avoid the invisible, infectious exhalations.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Grumble
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:18 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:44 am
headshot wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:42 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:58 am
He mentioned the French regulations, where you can take your mask off to smoke. His observation was that if you can smell cigarette smoke, you've got smoke particles (and presumably carriers for viral particles) from the smoker's lungs to your nose.
I was thinking about this the other day as I followed someone who was vaping. Enormous clouds of vape were exiting his lungs and hanging in the air, so I crossed the road to prevent walking into it.

I assume that oily/moist vape clouds are quite good at hosting viral particles in them.
There's no reason to suppose your risk would be any lower than if they had not been vaping. When you go out, you could usefully imagine everyone around you is vaping and you're trying to avoid breathing in the visible exhalations. That should help you avoid the invisible, infectious exhalations.
When people are vaping they tend to breath in and out more deeply, so that could increase risk.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:21 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:44 am
headshot wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:42 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:58 am
He mentioned the French regulations, where you can take your mask off to smoke. His observation was that if you can smell cigarette smoke, you've got smoke particles (and presumably carriers for viral particles) from the smoker's lungs to your nose.
I was thinking about this the other day as I followed someone who was vaping. Enormous clouds of vape were exiting his lungs and hanging in the air, so I crossed the road to prevent walking into it.

I assume that oily/moist vape clouds are quite good at hosting viral particles in them.
There's no reason to suppose your risk would be any lower than if they had not been vaping. When you go out, you could usefully imagine everyone around you is vaping and you're trying to avoid breathing in the visible exhalations. That should help you avoid the invisible, infectious exhalations.
Yeah, I try to avoid that. Vape ‘smoke‘ does seem to hang about in the air a lot more and doesn’t disperse as readily as normal smoke, but that might just be a visual thing.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:35 am

SARS-CoV-2 infection paralyzes cytotoxic and metabolic functions of immune cells
In summary, our report suggests that SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to disrupted CD8+ T cytotoxic functions and changes the overall metabolic functions of immune cells.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 4.282780v1

Only four in the sample though.

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:41 am

Vape 'smoke' is really an aerosol of tiny liquid droplets, rather than solid particulates as in smokey smoke.

I have no idea if the additional liquid droplets being exhaled could be an additional vector for viruses.

I think headshot is right about it "hanging in the air" - people do all kinds of crazy tricks with it, which I've not seen from similarly voluminous methods of producing smoke e.g. shisha or bongs.
Born at 356.32 ppm CO2 #ShowYourStripes

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:22 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:41 am
Vape 'smoke' is really an aerosol of tiny liquid droplets, rather than solid particulates as in smokey smoke.

I have no idea if the additional liquid droplets being exhaled could be an additional vector for viruses.

I think headshot is right about it "hanging in the air" - people do all kinds of crazy tricks with it, which I've not seen from similarly voluminous methods of producing smoke e.g. shisha or bongs.
Vaping is linked to infection. But I’m not sure whether that’s due to exhaled droplets being a vector. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/ ... dults.html

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Brightonian
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Brightonian » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:41 am

Grumble wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:18 am
When people are vaping they tend to breath in and out more deeply, so that could increase risk.
I try to avoid joggers for the same reason, or at least breathe out/hold my breath in the seconds after they go by. Also, I won't be rejoining a local walking group for the foreseeable, same reason again.

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:21 am

Brightonian wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:41 am
Grumble wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:18 am
When people are vaping they tend to breath in and out more deeply, so that could increase risk.
I try to avoid joggers for the same reason, or at least breathe out/hold my breath in the seconds after they go by. Also, I won't be rejoining a local walking group for the foreseeable, same reason again.
Ah - so I'm not the only one doing this! But I don't hold my breath for quite so long if there's a cross-wind.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:03 pm

As a jogger, I’ve been holding my breath as I run past people so as not to exhale all over them.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:30 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:03 pm
As a jogger, I’ve been holding my breath as I run past people so as not to exhale all over them.
Me too, where it hasn't been possible to be on the other side of the road.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:57 pm

An incomprehensible (to me) trend on Arsebook is people checking the minutiae of how many people they can have round to their house under current local limitations. It seems that many are interpreting "The Government says no more than 10 [that's the new number round our way, down from 30 I think] people in your house at any one time" to mean "If you hold a party for exactly 10 people this weekend, everything will be fine, there is no danger, and indeed it is your patriotic duty to organise such a party". The number of people from outside our household that we will be asking round for drinks and dancing in the foreseeable future is zero, but apparently we're out of touch.
Careering along in my creosote car

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:12 pm

Ditto. We’re still avoiding indoor contact, even with family.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Hunting Dog » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:43 pm

Ditto, ditto, but various friends have been in touch as soon as anything is technically legal. Allowed to meet other households at home = organise a 'socially distanced' get-together in the garden, which according to pics wasn't that distanced, and ooh if it turns out to be too hot/cold take everyone indoors. Pubs are reopening = let's all go for a drink on the first weekend.

We've got fed up with the bright ideas and just said we don't intend meeting up this year.

(Oh and the average age of said friends is about 60, and average health status +30BMI and diabetic :roll: )

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:36 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/spor ... virus.html
The survey found myocarditis in close to 15 percent of athletes who had the virus, almost all of whom experienced mild or no symptoms, Daniels added, perhaps shedding more light on the uncertainties about the short- and long-term effects the virus may have on athletes.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:42 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:43 pm
Northern Italy's patient 1, "Mattia", is finally off artificial respiration.
... and he's back on the football pitch, playing in a small tournament with/against local government and health volunteers from the first "red zone"

https://www.ilmessaggero.it/italia/coro ... 42665.html
molto tricky

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:10 pm

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S120 ... 4/fulltext

Results: We recruited 286 adults with exposure to respiratory infections in the Australian winters of 2006 and 2007 - 94 adults were randomized to surgical masks, 90 to P2 masks and 102 to the control group. Using intention to treat analysis, we found no significant difference in the relative risk of respiratory illness in the mask groups compared to control group. However, compliance with mask use was less than 50%. In an adjusted analysis of compliant subjects, masks as a group had protective efficacy in excess of 80% against clinical influenza-like illness. The efficacy against proven viral infection and between P2 masks (57%) and surgical masks (33%) was non-significant.

Conclusions: This is the first RCT on mask use to be conducted and provides data to inform pandemic planning. We found compliance to be low, but compliance is affected by perception of risk. In a pandemic, we would expect compliance to improve. In compliant users, masks were highly efficacious. A larger study is required to enumerate the difference in efficacy (if any) between surgical and non-fit tested P2 masks.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:55 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:36 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/spor ... virus.html
The survey found myocarditis in close to 15 percent of athletes who had the virus, almost all of whom experienced mild or no symptoms, Daniels added, perhaps shedding more light on the uncertainties about the short- and long-term effects the virus may have on athletes.
I saw that mentioned elsewhere and wondered how big a deal it was. According to British Heart Foundation website, myocarditis can be something mild that clears up quickly, or something serious that causes long term damage. Also viral infections are generally recognised as one of the causes. So another wide scale of how serious this could be.

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsuppo ... yocarditis

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Re: COVID-19

Post by mediocrity511 » Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:45 pm

Nearly 3000 positive tests today :shock:

I hoping this is because some kind of lab backlog, but it is a pretty significant leap.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:47 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:45 pm
Nearly 3000 positive tests today :shock:

I hoping this is because some kind of lab backlog, but it is a pretty significant leap.
Yesterday the cumulative number I had for the 31st of August in Lincolnshire was 2690 total cases; today it's been updated to 2691.

However, yesterday's number has gone from 2716 to 2743.

So I would say most of those 3000 positive tests are from the past week.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:55 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:45 pm
Nearly 3000 positive tests today :shock:

I hoping this is because some kind of lab backlog, but it is a pretty significant leap.
Scotland has seen a bit of a leap (208 today) with percentage of those tested going from around the 1% mark to 2.3%. Mostly located around Glasgow.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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