Page 158 of 258
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:00 pm
by shpalman
The 2nd of September seems to be the last day that we have the numbers of tests (Pillar 1 or 2) carried out in England but I'm sure they haven't increased exponentially the way the number of cases has.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:16 pm
by jimbob
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:57 am
jimbob wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:34 pm
The raw positive cases they have are also pretty small.
New map
More in the Central Belt, the Severn Estuary area and the North East with a quick eyeballing
- Annotation 2020-09-06 180933.png (96.84 KiB) Viewed 3213 times
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:32 pm
by sTeamTraen
I'm not sure how useful those images are without taking into account population density. Like those maps of "some alleged social problem that differs between blue and red states" in the US, that all map pretty much perfectly onto major population centres (mostly in blue states).
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:48 pm
by jimbob
sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:32 pm
I'm not sure how useful those images are without taking into account population density. Like those maps of "some alleged social problem that differs between blue and red states" in the US, that all map pretty much perfectly onto major population centres (mostly in blue states).
That's why I'm posting the trends - so we can see the changes. Earlier on Bristol was clear, for example.
Also, at the moment, we're bumping along the noise threshold of their symptomatic sensitivity for each constituency. There should be enough for a region, though.
I would prefer them to also randomly select willing app users for tests so we have a better idea in the community, and those without symptoms too.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:31 pm
by lpm
There's not enough testing capacity for large random testing programs.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:58 pm
by Bird on a Fire
lpm wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:31 pm
There's not enough testing capacity for large random testing programs.
Not via the government's channels, but university labs could do it. Even undergrads can run PCRs, they're not that challenging.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:44 am
by bob sterman
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:58 pm
lpm wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:31 pm
There's not enough testing capacity for large random testing programs.
Not via the government's channels, but university labs could do it. Even undergrads can run PCRs, they're not that challenging.
Indeed. And many offered to. Or offered to loan PCR machines.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:58 am
by lpm
Then why aren't they already being used to support the government tes- oh wait, it's that gross incompetence thing again isn't it.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:35 am
by Little waster
lpm wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:58 am
Then why aren't they already being used to support the government tes- oh wait, it's that gross incompetence thing again isn't it.
Are we absolutely 100% certain it isn't somehow the fault of child-hating marxist teachers, anti-racism protesters or doom-mongering Remoaners? Can someone please check?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:01 am
by Grumble
My kids have complained of or suffered from stomach upsets recently. I’m torn between government advice which doesn’t allow me a test for those symptoms and news reports saying that in children this can be an indicator of Covid-19.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:21 am
by bob sterman
Little waster wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:35 am
lpm wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:58 am
Then why aren't they already being used to support the government tes- oh wait, it's that gross incompetence thing again isn't it.
Are we absolutely 100% certain it isn't somehow the fault of child-hating marxist teachers, anti-racism protesters or doom-mongering Remoaners? Can someone please check?
Well I know for sure that a couple of people who offerred to loan PCR machines were "doom-mongering Remoaners".
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:25 am
by lpm
It's encouraging the surge in UK cases are concentrated in 18-21 year olds. This group are notorious for staying isolated from others. It's not like a million 18-21 year olds are suddenly going to move to another part of the country and mix with a new crowd.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:11 am
by jimbob
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:45 pm
by bob sterman
lpm wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:25 am
It's encouraging the surge in UK cases are concentrated in 18-21 year olds. This group are notorious for staying isolated from others. It's not like a million 18-21 year olds are suddenly going to move to another part of the country and mix with a new crowd.
Indeed. And it's also not like they're all going go and sit in groups in rooms listening to older people in higher risk categories talking.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:58 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:18 pm
by jimbob
Grumble wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:01 am
My kids have complained of or suffered from stomach upsets recently. I’m torn between government advice which doesn’t allow me a test for those symptoms and news reports saying that in children this can be an indicator of Covid-19.
It depends - do you trust the government or epidemiologists?
https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/sta ... 6880063488
Children with diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal pain must be tested for #COVID19
Quote Tweet
https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1 ... 1311008770
Gastrointestinal symptoms, including diarrhoea, vomiting, and abdominal cramps, are common in children infected with SARS-CoV-2 and should trigger tests for the virus, researchers have said
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:19 pm
by jimbob
Anyone able to evaluate that?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:18 pm
by shpalman
Fatigue and headache are the most common Covid symptoms in children
... presumably because fatigue and headache in adults just means you're an adult.
The article actually says "Fatigue, headache and fever are the most common symptoms of coronavirus in children" which is why the url says "fatigue and fever" while the headline says "fatigue and headache".
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:59 pm
by lpm
Today's UK figures presumably reflect infections from a few days ago.
1 day collating data, 1 day testing, 4 days between infection and symptoms?
So today represents what happened on bank holiday weekend or Tuesday 1 Sept?
Any guess as to how many cases represent imports - holiday abroad, catch it there, tested in UK a few days later?
Looks like we're seeing the success of Eat Out to Help the Virus Out and the full reopening of pubs, clubs, gyms, tattoos, beauty etc. But not yet the success of school reopening.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:13 pm
by jimbob
Hospital admissions are rising now.
Even if it's hard to see on the cebm dashboard
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 82369?s=20
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:26 am
by Woodchopper
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:50 am
by PeteB
#ActuaryByDay is worth following, very careful and measured, just saw him very politely correcting the latest Carl Heneghan nonsense
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:53 pm
by jimbob
PeteB wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:50 am
#ActuaryByDay is worth following, very careful and measured, just saw him very politely correcting the latest Carl Heneghan nonsense
Oh, I do... Where's the tweet, and what's your Twitter handle?
Mine's @parkinjim
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:19 pm
by PeteB
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 9668413440 I'll follow you
Worth looking at the previous replies to CH
gone very quiet now
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:52 pm
by jimbob
Oh yes, thanks... very nicely done, because basic arithmetic is easy to spot