COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:42 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:16 pm
jimbob wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:57 am
jimbob wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:34 pm
The raw positive cases they have are also pretty small.

Image
New map
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More in the Central Belt, the Severn Estuary area and the North East with a quick eyeballing
Image

And the North Somerset cluster from that has made it into the UK official data now:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
EhaGZwjXcAIlHGX.jpg
EhaGZwjXcAIlHGX.jpg (427.53 KiB) Viewed 642 times
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:09 pm

And the discussion about the sampling sensitivity of the covidzoe data is being resolved by increasing the number of cases in the country.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time
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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:42 pm

MOONSHOT

I'm so glad I live in England, we're such an amazing country, we're going to do this really cool moonshot of mass testing everybody everyday with results in 15 minutes, and it's not a lie chucked out to cover-up government f.ck ups, it's a really real thing that really will happen in reality.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by PeteB » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:09 pm

Moonshots, Covid Marshalls, covid pregnancy tests, Covid sniffer dogs , presumably each Marshall gets a sniffer dog. What a time to be an Englishman

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:57 pm

I had predicted a future where we eat rats, but not a future where we eat rats while on the run from the Covid Marshalls' sniffer dogs. Still, all worth it because we've got a MOONSHOT.
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AMS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:12 pm

Very good article from the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... er/616204/

It's written specically about the US, but the lessons are general enough.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:53 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:57 pm
I had predicted a future where we eat rats, but not a future where we eat rats while on the run from the Covid Marshalls' sniffer dogs. Still, all worth it because we've got a MOONSHOT.
Apparently this has a budget of £100 billion. That's about the same as the NHS. Apart from anything else, where do you find the million or so people that you would need to spend that, even if the mean salary is £35k plus 40% overhead and half of the money goes on buildings and supplies?
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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:45 pm

How is it even worth £100 billion to prevent a second lockdown?!

Surely, surely, the cost of a second lockdown is less than £100 billion?

I know lockdowns are boring, but they could literally give everyone in the country £1500 to spend on entertainment for less than £100 billion.
Born at 356.32 ppm CO2 #ShowYourStripes

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:54 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:45 pm
How is it even worth £100 billion to prevent a second lockdown?!

Surely, surely, the cost of a second lockdown is less than £100 billion?

I know lockdowns are boring, but they could literally give everyone in the country £1500 to spend on entertainment for less than £100 billion.
We are looking at UK GDP falling by about 10% in 2020.

UK gdp at the end of 2019 was £ 2,214.89 billion.

So the current recession is worth over twice the cost of the moonshot testing programme. It might be worth it if it were to avert another 10% decline in gdp in 2021.

PS I know the moonshot programme is unlikely to be anything more than a PR exercise.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:34 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:53 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:57 pm
I had predicted a future where we eat rats, but not a future where we eat rats while on the run from the Covid Marshalls' sniffer dogs. Still, all worth it because we've got a MOONSHOT.
Apparently this has a budget of £100 billion. That's about the same as the NHS. Apart from anything else, where do you find the million or so people that you would need to spend that, even if the mean salary is £35k plus 40% overhead and half of the money goes on buildings and supplies?
Well, contracts can be awarded without tender now, and quite a few of their mates missed out first time around.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:44 am

AMS wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:12 pm
Very good article from the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... er/616204/

It's written specically about the US, but the lessons are general enough.
Thanks for that.

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:08 am

The MOONSHOT has failed.

I'm surprised. I thought it would be more effective.

None of the tabloids lead with it, going for Christmas Cancelled angles instead. Only the Metro fell for it.

Not sure if it's because the Tory press are pissed off at Johnson, if even the British tabloids lack the nerve to run a lie as pathetically transparent as this, or if I'm too cynical.
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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:39 am

Moonshot wrote:He (the PM) has asked for a Manhattan Project-type approach to delivering the level of innovation/pace required to make this possible.
Is this another way of saying he's considering nuking the UK from orbit and starting again from scratch?
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:41 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:45 pm
How is it even worth £100 billion to prevent a second lockdown?!

Surely, surely, the cost of a second lockdown is less than £100 billion?

I know lockdowns are boring, but they could literally give everyone in the country £1500 to spend on entertainment for less than £100 billion.
It's good because as Johnson says, once you get a negative test, you're fine and don't need another. A bit like pregnancy tests if you have unprotected sex with every person near you in the shop or office every time you see them.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:53 am

jimbob wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:41 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:45 pm
How is it even worth £100 billion to prevent a second lockdown?!

Surely, surely, the cost of a second lockdown is less than £100 billion?

I know lockdowns are boring, but they could literally give everyone in the country £1500 to spend on entertainment for less than £100 billion.
It's good because as Johnson says, once you get a negative test, you're fine and don't need another. A bit like pregnancy tests if you have unprotected sex with every person near you in the shop or office every time you see them.
Hmmmm...if only there was some sort of barrier thing that you could put over an orifice of one person that could reduce the chances of the microscopic things that cause COVID passing from one person to another - in the same way there's a barrier thing can reduce the chances of the microscopic things that cause pregnancy passing from one person to another.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:03 am

I know, it's a good analogy.
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bagpuss
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bagpuss » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:13 am

Be careful. Someone, somewhere, will be dim enough to think this means it's a good idea to wear a condom over your head and end up suffocating, or something.

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:07 am

From Washington Post.

Refers to Brexit but applies to Covid, wives and MOONSHOTS as well.

Image
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:47 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:07 am
From Washington Post.

Refers to Brexit but applies to Covid, wives and MOONSHOTS as well.

Image
Johnson is more likely to squirt spunk into something as a distraction, and in that sort of case "divorce" isn't a metaphor.
molto tricky

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:28 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:08 am
The MOONSHOT has failed.

I'm surprised. I thought it would be more effective.

None of the tabloids lead with it, going for Christmas Cancelled angles instead. Only the Metro fell for it.

Not sure if it's because the Tory press are pissed off at Johnson, if even the British tabloids lack the nerve to run a lie as pathetically transparent as this, or if I'm too cynical.
I think that part of the problem is that, unlike Brexit (where they cheer every move, the more bonkers the better), the Tory base is more COVID-skeptic than the government. Wanting to massively increase testing (although perhaps not to the level of "everyone in the UK, once a week") ought to be a fairly apolitical thing, but if anyone's going to think it's a waste of time, it will be those who tend to claim that COVID-19 is just, in the words of a Facebook tw.t local to me, "fancu flu". These people also tend to balk at the idea of the government spending 100 billion on anything. (One of Dominic Cummings' Achilles heels is that he genuinely believes in science, or at least his idea of what science actually is and can do; but he seems to think that he can have the electoral benefits of a climate-change-denying, COVID-denying mob while sneaking science-based policies in by the back door. I suspect this might be the lamp-post from which he finds himself suspended upside-down.)

Acksherly, if you ignore the shambolic aspects of the rollout and the flip-flopping, the various coronavirus policies that the UK has enacted have not been all that far out of line with the European norm. Spain has still never had any sort of quarantine on arrival, France's March-April lockdown also allowed you to go for exercise (unlike Spain and Italy), the Netherlands is still behind the UK on masks, many countries are currently also dialling back the number of people who can now meet socially, and Sweden is still (just) the shining city on a hill for the #KBF types.
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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:59 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:28 pm

Acksherly, if you ignore the shambolic aspects of the rollout and the flip-flopping, the various coronavirus policies that the UK has enacted have not been all that far out of line with the European norm. Spain has still never had any sort of quarantine on arrival, France's March-April lockdown also allowed you to go for exercise (unlike Spain and Italy), the Netherlands is still behind the UK on masks, many countries are currently also dialling back the number of people who can now meet socially, and Sweden is still (just) the shining city on a hill for the #KBF types.
The 'norm' you mention is a collection of countries which have had the most disastrous record.

The UK is at 96 excess deaths per 100 000.

Places that did well include:

Norway -4
Denmark 8
Germany 11
Switzerland 18
Austria 19

If the UK had handled Covid as well as the Danes, there would be less than 10% of the excess mortality.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:59 pm
If the UK had handled Covid as well as the Danes, there would be less than 10% of the excess mortality.
Sure. My point is only that the UK isn't a huge outlier, especially in terms of specific measures. The implementation will have made most of the difference.
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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:47 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:39 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:59 pm
If the UK had handled Covid as well as the Danes, there would be less than 10% of the excess mortality.
Sure. My point is only that the UK isn't a huge outlier, especially in terms of specific measures. The implementation will have made most of the difference.
The UK is an outlier in terms of time. It got the measures right, but later than the places that coped better.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:19 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:47 pm
mediocrity511 wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:45 pm
Nearly 3000 positive tests today :shock:

I hoping this is because some kind of lab backlog, but it is a pretty significant leap.
Yesterday the cumulative number I had for the 31st of August in Lincolnshire was 2690 total cases; today it's been updated to 2691.

However, yesterday's number has gone from 2716 to 2743.

So I would say most of those 3000 positive tests are from the past week.
As the UK registers nearly 3000 new cases again today (nearly 2600 in the UK), the new cases in Lincolnshire date back over the past couple of weeks.
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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:25 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:28 pm
#KBF types.
The urban dictionary definition of that is... unfortunate.

:shock:
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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