COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:57 pm

American, accused of ignoring Covid-19 quarantine, to go on Bavaria bar crawl

Why don't they stop her?

Oh wait.

American has been accused of ignoring Covid-19 quarantine to go on Bavaria bar crawl

The hotel hosted a conference last week on how to prevent the virus spreading in the US army.
molto tricky

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:42 pm

TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:15 pm
This video:

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

Is being shared all over my Facebook as proof that Covid etc is over.
Can you lot help me Fisk it?
I get all sorts of red flags from it.
Nice twitter thread debunking this:

https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status ... quote]This is deeply pseudoscientific and dangerous rubbish. I wouldn't normally amplify, but in this case given the public health emergency I've made an exception.

The full version is here: https://youtu.be/DUDg5ossirU


Otherwise let's take it apart here: /thread[/quote]
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:14 pm

Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4820303245

Bird on a fire will like the conclusion.

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:22 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:42 pm
TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:15 pm
This video:

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

Is being shared all over my Facebook as proof that Covid etc is over.
Can you lot help me Fisk it?
I get all sorts of red flags from it.
Nice twitter thread debunking this:

https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status ... quote]This is deeply pseudoscientific and dangerous rubbish. I wouldn't normally amplify, but in this case given the public health emergency I've made an exception.

The full version is here: https://youtu.be/DUDg5ossirU


Otherwise let's take it apart here: /thread
This Cummins bloke is nearly as obnoxious as "eye test " Cummings. Perhaps one of the most obnoxious things he does is insist on describing the pandemic as merely a "viral issue" rather than a "pandemic".

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:55 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:22 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:42 pm
TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:15 pm
This video:

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

Is being shared all over my Facebook as proof that Covid etc is over.
Can you lot help me Fisk it?
I get all sorts of red flags from it.
Nice twitter thread debunking this:

https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status ... 71137?s=20
This is deeply pseudoscientific and dangerous rubbish. I wouldn't normally amplify, but in this case given the public health emergency I've made an exception.

The full version is here: https://youtu.be/DUDg5ossirU


Otherwise let's take it apart here: /thread
This Cummins bloke is nearly as obnoxious as "eye test " Cummings. Perhaps one of the most obnoxious things he does is insist on describing the pandemic as merely a "viral issue" rather than a "pandemic".
(fixed my link)
He is isn't he. And like so many others of his ilk, so pompous and proud of his sophistry. See also Alistair Haimes with his Twitter handle "Nullius in Verba" but who is very quick to block any questioning of his claims.

Anyway, I have now plotted the ONS weekly deaths as a cumulative total for each year 2015-2020(wk36) and unsurprisingly, you can't see any large difference in any year until COVID:

Image
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:38 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:14 pm
Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4820303245

Bird on a fire will like the conclusion.
I mean, it would be much easier to simply avoid eating pangolins than to overhaul the global meat industry: the amount of resistance such an idea gets even amongst science-friendly portions of the public (like this forum) is pretty unencouraging.

But I do welcome the focus on systematic root causes, rather than the specific set of happenstance that lead to the most recent upset.

ETA but that was an interesting read, thanks :)
Born at 356.32 ppm CO2 #ShowYourStripes

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discovolante
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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:33 am

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:39 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:42 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:16 pm

More in the Central Belt, the Severn Estuary area and the North East with a quick eyeballing
Image

And the North Somerset cluster from that has made it into the UK official data now:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Image
new data

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

Screenshot 2020-09-12 152021.png

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/C3SKs/10/ (zoomed map from https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/)

Screenshot 2020-09-12 154107.png
Just a comment on the app/study: things they don't ask about being out and about:

- if you wear a mask 'sometimes', whether that is when you are indoors or outdoors
- whether anyone else has been inside your house/been to visit
- whether anyone else in your household has been out and about and if so what they have been up to.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:17 am

TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:41 pm
Ta, that”s pretty much what I thought.
When he quoted an opinion piece by libertarian economists as if it was data I really loled out loud.
What time was that?

I might as well add that to my comments on it on Twitter?

As an aside. His manner of speaking is so insincere. Do narcissists have identifiable ways of talking? Because his choice of words, "sadly have passed" "prior soft winter" sounds to me like someone who's read about it being good to express empathy, but hasn't got a clue what it means.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:47 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:56 pm
UK official cases:

1 August 574 per day (7 day average)
31 August 1,261 per day

= 2.2x increase in a month
Continuing the series:

31 August 1,261 per day (7 day average)
12 Sept 2,760 per day

= 2.2x increase in 12 days
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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TAFKAsoveda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TAFKAsoveda » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:15 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:17 am
TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:41 pm
Ta, that”s pretty much what I thought.
When he quoted an opinion piece by libertarian economists as if it was data I really loled out loud.
What time was that?

I might as well add that to my comments on it on Twitter?

As an aside. His manner of speaking is so insincere. Do narcissists have identifiable ways of talking? Because his choice of words, "sadly have passed" "prior soft winter" sounds to me like someone who's read about it being good to express empathy, but hasn't got a clue what it means.
10:48ish

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:19 pm

TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:15 pm
jimbob wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:17 am
TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:41 pm
Ta, that”s pretty much what I thought.
When he quoted an opinion piece by libertarian economists as if it was data I really loled out loud.
What time was that?

I might as well add that to my comments on it on Twitter?

As an aside. His manner of speaking is so insincere. Do narcissists have identifiable ways of talking? Because his choice of words, "sadly have passed" "prior soft winter" sounds to me like someone who's read about it being good to express empathy, but hasn't got a clue what it means.
10:48ish
Thanks - he's now trying to refute the debunking by Dr Dominic Pimenta (@juniordrblog) or "Junior" as @FatEmperor calls him. with another video. It's almost as though he thinks videos are harder to challenge.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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TAFKAsoveda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TAFKAsoveda » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:20 pm

Sorry I pointed this particular rabbit hole out!

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:24 pm

TAFKAsoveda wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:20 pm
Sorry I pointed this particular rabbit hole out!
No, I missed most of the earlier anti-antivax stuff from Legion etc (as I didn't feel I had anything to contribute) but this - I can read official statistics and am pretty good at Excel.

My pinned tweet thread is now pretty long with COVID denier claim debunkings.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:39 pm

Not a great headline for the government in tomorrow's Guardian... er, I mean Mirror... wait, is this the Mail?

Image
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:54 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:39 pm
Not a great headline for the government in tomorrow's Guardian... er, I mean Mirror... wait, is this the Mail?

Image
I clocked that at the supermarket yesterday. The Sun was also critical.

It was only The Express that ignored it on its front page
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:08 pm

https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns- ... ssion=true

Hmm:

I like this because it makes a good testable claim:
A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper by Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha focused on countries and U.S. states with more than 1,000 COVID deaths as of late July. In all, the study included 25 U.S. states and 23 countries.

Based on their analysis, the authors present four “Stylized Facts” about COVID-19, which are:

1. Once a region reaches 25 total COVID deaths, within a month the growth rate in deaths per day falls to approximately zero. In other words, no matter the country or state and its policies, deaths per day stop increasing within 20-30 days of passing a threshold of 25 deaths.

2. Once that happens, deaths per day either begin to fall or the trend remains flat.

3. The variability in death trends across regions has fallen sharply since the beginning of the epidemic and remains low. All states studied, all countries studied, have become more similar in their trends and have remained so.


Observations 1-3 suggest that the effective reproduction number, R, has hovered around one worldwide after the first 30 days of the epidemic.
The paper’s conclusion is that the data trends observed above likely indicate that nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – such as lockdowns, closures, travel restrictions, stay-home orders, event bans, quarantines, curfews, and mask mandates – do not seem to affect virus transmission rates overall.

Why? Because those policies have varied in their timing and implementation across countries and states, but the trends in outcomes do not.

For shiggles here are my plots of South Africa, Brazil, Peru, and India. And remembering that Brazil's reported deaths were capped at about 1000 (someone upthread gave a plausible explanation for the mechanism I think, but cannot find it)
Image

Image

Image

and even Brazil:
Image

One of my tweets in that conversation:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/13 ... 48608?s=20
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:00 am

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:39 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:42 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:16 pm

More in the Central Belt, the Severn Estuary area and the North East with a quick eyeballing
Image

And the North Somerset cluster from that has made it into the UK official data now:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Image
new data

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

Screenshot 2020-09-12 152021.png

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/C3SKs/10/ (zoomed map from https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/)

Image
New map

Now the testing survey seems to have caught up with it
Screenshot 2020-09-21 075419.png
Screenshot 2020-09-21 075419.png (100.84 KiB) Viewed 410 times
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Vertigowooyay
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Vertigowooyay » Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:33 pm

Now look here, you freedom loving coves, you need to bally well shape up and respect the rules of your betters or Johnny Covid’s going to get us in his iron grip and we might have to crack down again just like nanny did when I kept eating the antique plasterwork in the nursery. And let’s have none of this dashed carping on and on about confused, conflicting rules, organizational incompetence and ideology trumping common sense. It’s frankly unBritish, unseemly and unhelpful and you’re just aiding the enemy if you say that.
Calm yourself Doctor NotTheNineO’ClockNews. We’re men of science. We fear no worldly terrors.

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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:48 pm

Don't you think he looks tired?

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:17 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:48 pm
Don't you think he looks tired?
I think his serious face looks like Hugh Grant in pantomime villain mode when he's pretending to be the hero's friend.

If I wanted an overweight, blond, national leader with a drink problem, called Boris - I'd prefer the other one.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:48 pm
Don't you think he looks tired?
Is he not in "good spirits"??

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Re: COVID-19

Post by veravista » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:20 pm

I think he looked sweaty and slimy to be honest. More like a double glazing salesman that you'd rather not shake hands with after you eventually kick the f.cker out.

And, if you going to go all Eton macho make a f.cking fist, not a namby pamby one with your thumb on top like a f.cking water diviner.

And breath..

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jdc
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jdc » Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:47 pm

veravista wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:20 pm
I think he looked sweaty and slimy to be honest. More like a double glazing salesman that you'd rather not shake hands with after you eventually kick the f.cker out.

And, if you going to go all Eton macho make a f.cking fist, not a namby pamby one with your thumb on top like a f.cking water diviner.

And breath..
I think they're told to do that by media consultants or something. It's the new pointing.

monkey
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Re: COVID-19

Post by monkey » Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:16 pm

I was just wondering what the death rate was doing in the UK, what with the 2nd wave stating and all. Found a plot here. It looks like they pretty much stopped counting in early August. Anyone know what changed? If it was discussed here, I missed it and cannot find it.

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jimbob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:14 pm

monkey wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:16 pm
I was just wondering what the death rate was doing in the UK, what with the 2nd wave stating and all. Found a plot here. It looks like they pretty much stopped counting in early August. Anyone know what changed? If it was discussed here, I missed it and cannot find it.
The ECDC does have data for every country that reports it

Good overview https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/ ... -overviews (it includes the subnational rates in the EU and UK and one option is as a map)





https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/data has lots of data links

And this directly takes you to the download page and I think starts downloading: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -worldwide

That's what I use to create these graphs from

Screenshot 2020-09-24 221239.png
Screenshot 2020-09-24 221239.png (32.47 KiB) Viewed 102 times
Screenshot 2020-09-24 221157.png
Screenshot 2020-09-24 221157.png (38.45 KiB) Viewed 102 times
ETA: I prefer to use the ONS data which is at best 11 days behind, but is more accurate.

Also https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ for a good UK dashboard - by a 25 yr old student at the university of the Highlands and Islands in his spare time - because obviously a part time project should be better than an of our government sites.

His trends for ICU or hospital admissions are not looking good
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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