COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:37 pm

molto tricky

Millennie Al
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Millennie Al » Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:36 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:56 am
Have we made modelling and predicting stuff and planning seem harder than it than it actually was?
a) Yes, because there were lots of very learned people with complicated models which were totally unnecessary and may have distracted the politicians.

b) That's Boris following the science - he does so at a safe distance as he doesn't really understand or trust it
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Millennie Al » Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:44 am

Well, I didn't see it. It's very interesting. Other simple figures from it are:
No positive contacts were identified for 70.7% of index cases for whom reliable contact-tracing data, including test results, were available
[/qupte]
Superspreading predominated, with 5% of infected individuals accounting for 80% of cases.
These suggest that there's nothing further that a majority of people can do to help as they already are not going to pass it on to anyone.

What would now be really useful is some idea of what makes a person a superspreader - is it a characteristic of them (e.g. their immune response), their behaviour (e.g. doing a job which requires contact with lots of people), or something else (e.g. how large a dose of the virus they were exposed to)?
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jaap » Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:46 am

Today I found the microCOVID Project, which is a neat calculator for estimating the risk of catching it from various routine activities.
The calculator introduces a new concept, the microCOVID. One microCOVID is a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.

An activity that’s 20,000 microCOVIDs is very unsafe, as you have a 2% risk of getting COVID every time you do it. An activity that’s 20 microCOVIDs is relatively safe, as you could do it every week for a year and still have only about a 0.1% chance of getting COVID.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:38 am

jaap wrote:
Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:46 am
Today I found the microCOVID Project, which is a neat calculator for estimating the risk of catching it from various routine activities.
The calculator introduces a new concept, the microCOVID. One microCOVID is a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.

An activity that’s 20,000 microCOVIDs is very unsafe, as you have a 2% risk of getting COVID every time you do it. An activity that’s 20 microCOVIDs is relatively safe, as you could do it every week for a year and still have only about a 0.1% chance of getting COVID.
FYI

"One-night stand" in England

9% chance per hour with random person
30% chance per hour with household member or visitor
50% chance per hour with spouse/partner (filthy buggers)

These chances are doubled with kissing.

No figures for mask-wearing or position.

0% chance if you have the one-night stand on your own.
9000 microCoVIDs with one partner
20000 microCOVIDs for a threesome
+10000 microCOVIDs per additional participant.

However that is only with 15 feet so watching is presumably OK

So as long as you don't have sex with your spouse, you don't kiss and it only lasts a few minutes you should be fine. I think I'm safe. :oops:

Otherwise get yourself some binoculars and head to a dark layby.
It's meta, so it is allowed.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Wed Jan 20, 2021 6:33 pm

KAJ wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:14 pm
Hmm. Sunday and Monday reported deaths are systematically lower than later days of the week, but today's high number isn't entirely a weekday effect. As the Grauniad says:
This is the largest daily figure for Covid deaths (defined as deaths within 28 days of testing positive) recorded so far on a single day.

The previous biggest high came on Wednesday last week, when 1,564 deaths were recorded.
... so the reported number today is higher than any previous Tuesday. Last Wednesday's was higher than any previous Wednesday.
... yeah... and today's number is higher than yesterday, higher than any previous Wednesday, and indeed higher than any previous day.

These few days probably are the peak (in reporting) though, next week should be better.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by KAJ » Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Jan 20, 2021 6:33 pm
... yeah... and today's number is higher than yesterday, higher than any previous Wednesday, and indeed higher than any previous day.

These few days probably are the peak (in reporting) though, next week should be better.
I hope and expect so. I won't post all the graph and regressions but on today's data I get:
  • Cases (by report date and by specimen date) declining at an increasing rate
  • Hospital admissions declining, currently very slowly but rate of decline rapidly increasing
  • Patients in hospital increasing (doubling time = 46.2 days), but that rate decreasing
  • Patients in mechanical ventilation beds increasing (doubling time = 28.9 days), but that rate decreasing
  • Deaths by date of death, quite pure exponential growth (doubling time = 20.7 days)
  • Deaths by date of publication, increasing (doubling time = 31.1 days) but that rate may be decreasing (visually, but very weak evidence)

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:04 pm

only 17% of people with symptoms are coming forward to get a test for fear a positive result could stop them from working
... only one in four people reported compliance with self-isolation, with 15% going to work as normal.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:38 pm

Ministers are considering paying £500 to everyone in England who tests positive for Covid-19, in a dramatic overhaul of the self-isolation support scheme, the Guardian can reveal.
Have they though about fining employers who threaten to sack people for taking time off to self-isolate or otherwise pressure them to come in? Because £500 might not be enough if you think you're going to lose your job.

Oh wait. It's only benefit claimants that need the stick part of carrot&stick, isn't it. Employers will do the right thing, out of the goodness of their entrepeneurial hearts.

Y'know, Taiwan has peen paying people to self-isolate from the get-go. $33 a day. Plus a big fine if they break isolation. Oh yes, and also this:
Further, according to Special Act for Prevention, Relief and Revitalization Measures for COVID-19which was enactedon 25 February 2020, for those assigned to home isolation, home quarantine, group isolation, or group quarantine, their employers shall provide disease prevention isolation leave during the isolation or quarantine period and may not treat them as absent without a reason, force them to take personal leave or other leaves, deduct attendance bonuses, dismiss them, or impose other unfavorable penaltieson them. The same shall apply to family members who take leave to care for isolated or quarantined individuals.Employers who violate the above shall be imposed on a fine of no less than NT$50,000(approximately US$ 1660) and no more than NT$1 million (approximately US$ 33,300) (Articles 3 and 16)

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Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:15 pm

Well colour me surprised. Belay the rant from that post. Apparently, we do have fines for employers who ask people to work when they should be self-isolating. Introduced last September. So maybe the problem is not setting up adequate compensation.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by dyqik » Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:22 pm

raven wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:15 pm
Well colour me surprised. Belay the rant from that post. Apparently, we do have fines for employers who ask people to work when they should be self-isolating. Introduced last September. So maybe the problem is not setting up adequate compensation.
But I don't know if any business has actually been fined. I think I saw a story showing that only individuals had been fined in 2020.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:36 pm

It’s mixture of both inadequate compensation and not using the consequences we have, isn’t it?


Inadequate sick pay + limited compensation to top it up + fear of losing your job stops people from self isolating. Failing to hold employers to account by having no consequences or not applying consequences means no immediate incentive for businesses to act responsibly. It’s yet another thing they’ve f.cked yo and are introducing a year too late.


If fines for employers were introduced last September isn’t that about the time Boris was encouraging people to get back to the office and back to work?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:14 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:13 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:25 pm
This what Lombardy looks like with its R so high it will go from Orange to Red next week.

Image

Currently at about 150 new cases per 100,000 per day.
Fontana is complaining that having to be a Red zone next week is an "unjust punishment" based on old numbers, which it might be, but it's true that cases are slowly trending upwards despite being an Orange zone so something a bit stronger is needed to make daily cases trend down again.

As I said it doesn't make much difference to me what colour we are because I can always do what I need to do and I still can't do what I want to do so I'd rather we locked down harder and got on with vaccinating people.
The word now is that Lombardy screwed up its calculation of R...

Anyway, thanks to being a Red Zone it's apparently one of the lowest in Italy so we're allowed to be Orange soon.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:42 pm

The next question is when the UK official death toll will pass 100,000. The 100,000th death means nothing more than any of the others, of course, but it's symbolic and may cause a political ripple or two.

The current total is 95,981. Based on last weekend's numbers and the idea that deaths have probably just about peaked this week, I think the total will be about 99,700 on Tuesday evening and not hit 100,000 until Wednesday. Just in case any government ministers are watching and want to know which day not to do the press conference.
Something something hammer something something nail

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discovolante
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Re: COVID-19

Post by discovolante » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:26 pm

For a slightly delayed celebration of the anniversary of this thread, I went back and re-read the first few pages. f.cking hell.
socialism is when the government does stuff

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gfamily » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:46 pm

discovolante wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:26 pm
For a slightly delayed celebration of the anniversary of this thread, I went back and re-read the first few pages. f.cking hell.
Someone seems to have made a lot of unsubstantiated claims
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by jimbob » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:11 pm

In a similar vein
mikeh wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:30 am
GeenDienst wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:41 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:07 pm
Puts me in the mind of this:
The more research has been done, the less evil that one got, for a 5000 years ago kinda thing. The earlier idea that they were slaves has gone away, rather. But, yes, they didn't do a lot of voting and they did get stuff built.
Imagine telling London they're not going anywhere. Or indeed, imagine telling your favourite Brexit-voting small town they're not going anywhere. People will be making unnecessary journeys just to stick it to the authorities. Compliance with the state will at least mean people aren't moving about very much, the main aim of the lockdown (whether or not the consequences of that make it a good intervention). The analysis of that will be very useful information for next time. And there will be a next time.

I vaguely recall seeing a presentation at a conference years back that talked about restrictions of movements in mexico during the swine flu outbreak in 2009. Going to be vague on the details but in essence-
A little bit of lockdown was a bit effective, mid-range lockdown was the best (no sporting events, shut schools, but keep airports open though checks and extra stuff were put in place). Mass lockdown (e.g. shutting airports and other public transport) involved people saying "er... no, we're off" and heading off into the sunset anyway. Movements were actually more than the lesser-lockdown options.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:21 pm

discovolante wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:26 pm
For a slightly delayed celebration of the anniversary of this thread, I went back and re-read the first few pages. f.cking hell.
On 21st Jan 2020, I was at Disneyland in LA with a big group of friends. Eesh.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:38 am

shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:04 pm
only 17% of people with symptoms are coming forward to get a test for fear a positive result could stop them from working
... only one in four people reported compliance with self-isolation, with 15% going to work as normal.
Of course the reaction to the idea of paying people £500 so that they can afford to not to have to work is lots of PEopLE WILL DEliBERaTELY CaTCh covid jUst to Get the MONey.

WHAT DO YOU WANT.

f.cks SAKE.

Note: an actual welfare state / sick pay system which works is not a valid choice because you f.ckers voted for the tories what did you expect.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:28 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:38 am
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:04 pm
only 17% of people with symptoms are coming forward to get a test for fear a positive result could stop them from working
... only one in four people reported compliance with self-isolation, with 15% going to work as normal.
Of course the reaction to the idea of paying people £500 so that they can afford to not to have to work is lots of PEopLE WILL DEliBERaTELY CaTCh covid jUst to Get the MONey.

WHAT DO YOU WANT.

f.cks SAKE.

Note: an actual welfare state / sick pay system which works is not a valid choice because you f.ckers voted for the tories what did you expect.
A more nuanced write-up of these concerns: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ts-opinion
A Treasury source suggested polling had shown that the most common reasons for failing to self-isolate were not money
Well they would say that wouldn't they.
molto tricky

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:50 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:14 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:13 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:25 pm
This what Lombardy looks like with its R so high it will go from Orange to Red next week.

Image

Currently at about 150 new cases per 100,000 per day.
Fontana is complaining that having to be a Red zone next week is an "unjust punishment" based on old numbers, which it might be, but it's true that cases are slowly trending upwards despite being an Orange zone so something a bit stronger is needed to make daily cases trend down again.

As I said it doesn't make much difference to me what colour we are because I can always do what I need to do and I still can't do what I want to do so I'd rather we locked down harder and got on with vaccinating people.
The word now is that Lombardy screwed up its calculation of R...

Anyway, thanks to being a Red Zone it's apparently one of the lowest in Italy so we're allowed to be Orange soon.
If I understand correctly, what happened was asymptomatic positives, who are automatically considered no longer positive after 21 days as long as they don't develop symptoms, were being considered as infected i.e. would have needed negative tests to have been considered no longer positive. This caused the number of current positives to look a lot higher than it should have done.

However:
Lombardy-20210123.jpg
Lombardy-20210123.jpg (44.17 KiB) Viewed 240 times
It's not like the case numbers have been obviously going down recently. (Numbers in hospital are doing ok though; occupancy is at less than half the November peak and falling.)

Orange basically mean non-essential shops will open for almost nobody to go to.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:13 pm

Britain finds 4 cases of Covid in the community and immediately orders lockdown

No, not all of Britain obviously cos that would be totally unnecessary and would need a lot of time to think about before we do it.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by JQH » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:38 am
shpalman wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:04 pm
only 17% of people with symptoms are coming forward to get a test for fear a positive result could stop them from working
... only one in four people reported compliance with self-isolation, with 15% going to work as normal.
Of course the reaction to the idea of paying people £500 so that they can afford to not to have to work is lots of PEopLE WILL DEliBERaTELY CaTCh covid jUst to Get the MONey.

WHAT DO YOU WANT.

f.cks SAKE.

Note: an actual welfare state / sick pay system which works is not a valid choice because you f.ckers voted for the tories what did you expect.

On this logic everybody would deliberately lose their jobs in order to get Universal Credit.

And if, rather than spouting gaslighting shite, they honestly believe that people are willing to catch a potentially lethal disease for £500 why are they not acting to alleviate such desperate poverty?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:52 pm

JQH wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:06 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:38 am
Of course the reaction to the idea of paying people £500 so that they can afford to not to have to work is lots of PEopLE WILL DEliBERaTELY CaTCh covid jUst to Get the MONey.

WHAT DO YOU WANT.

f.cks SAKE.

Note: an actual welfare state / sick pay system which works is not a valid choice because you f.ckers voted for the tories what did you expect.

On this logic everybody would deliberately lose their jobs in order to get Universal Credit.

And if, rather than spouting gaslighting shite, they honestly believe that people are willing to catch a potentially lethal disease for £500 why are they not acting to alleviate such desperate poverty?
It's almost as if they're a bunch of callous a..eholes who think it's their own fault if people are poor and too lazy to go get jobs.

I note that they're far happier to spend stupid sums of money on complicated and technical schemes to trace contacts or subsidize restaurants which don't work as well or as efficiently as just giving people money to stay home.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:00 pm

See also the idea that poor people are poor because they spend their money on "unnecessary" things so instead of giving them money to feed their kids let's give them a miserable and inadequate basket of "healthy" food worth about 20% of the money they would otherwise have wasted.
molto tricky

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