Scrutable

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:34 pm

There's someone called Andrew Lilico who is a Telegraph guy and has got himself loads of publicity recently by trolling on twitter.

Here's his latest. I can't make head or tail of it. He's saying R falls automatically if more vaccinated people catch Covid vs unvaccinated people.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/statu ... 0310587400

He's assuming vaccinated people transmit the virus half as well as unvaccinated. And so he says we have "crossed over".

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:50 pm

Infected vaccinated people transmit the virus more than un vaccinated, as they are more likely to be asymptomatic and unaware that they are infective. That is why we need NPIs, masking, distancing, testing, travel restrictions, etc. Especially for the vaccinated.

temptar wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:25 pm

You have in excess of 50,000 new cases today. Indonesia with nearly five times your population and with a lower proportion vaccinated had 54000.

Frankly your government are gobshites.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:24 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:53 am

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:28 am

I think that the weekend is more likely. But yes, this seems like another case of ministers being hopelessly behind where the curve is going.

I'm saying that because there's usually a jump in case numbers mid-week, as a day-of-the-week effect. But the 7-day average (which is less than 18,000 per day right now) won't go above 30,000 for another week or so.

Ok the 7-day average for the UK has now gone above 30,000 cases per day.

But yes, by 19th July, we could have a 7-day average of 40,000 per day, which means the first day which goes over 40,000 will probably be Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

The death rate is probably also now going to come up with a 9-10 day doubling time for week or so, to follow what happened in the cases.

temptar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:56 pm

One of today's is your Secretary for State for Health making sure as many people catch covid as possible.

Sajid Javid had a meeting with the PM yesterday, suggesting Johnson will need to self isolate.

54,674

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:17 pm

54,674

Not so lol.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:16 pm

Sajid Javid had a meeting with the PM yesterday, suggesting Johnson will need to self isolate.

More lol.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:17 pm

54,674

Not so lol.

Another hurdle I faced was that other scientists were offering different opinions. By early October the Great Barrington declaration was getting a lot of publicity as an “alternative” scientific theory. This was the dangerous proposition to allow the virus to sweep through the population quickly so that herd immunity could build up. The previous month, its proponents had been invited to present their thinking to No 10, a meeting thought to have influenced Johnson’s decision not to heed Sage’s advice to lock down.

The Great Barrington declaration was ideology masquerading as science and the science was still nonsense. Herd immunity by natural infection was, and still is, a coronavirus strategy that lacks credibility. I cannot even call it science. Nonetheless, conflicting expert opinions serve a useful purpose, as they do in climate research: they allow politicians and others, sometimes even scientists themselves, to pick a worldview that suits an ideological bias.

Cummings says: “In July I said to [Johnson], ‘Look, much of the media is insane, you’ve got all of these people running around saying there can’t be a second wave, lockdowns don’t work, and all this b.llsh.t. No 10’s got to be far more aggressive with these people and expose their arguments, and explain that some of the nonsense being peddled should not be treated as equivalent to serious scientists. They were being picked up by editors and by pundits like ‘Bonkers’ Hitchens [Peter Hitchens, the Mail on Sunday columnist].”

According to Cummings, Johnson rejected the idea of being more aggressive with the media, saying “The trouble is, Dom, I’m with Bonkers. My heart is with Bonkers, I don’t believe in any of this, it’s all b.llsh.t. I wish I’d been the mayor in Jaws and kept the beaches open.’

All the numbers vindicated what Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty had been saying publicly, and privately to No 10, for a month: that things needed to change or the UK could see 200 deaths a day and 50,000 new infections a day by November. They were derided at the time for scaremongering. As November approached, Patrick and Chris saw their nightmares materialising. On October 27, 367 Covid-19 deaths were confirmed.

If scientists were advocating a lockdown, many politicians definitely were not. On November 4 I was invited to talk via Zoom to the Covid recovery group, formed of about 80 Conservative MPs. I explained why tight restrictions were needed by highlighting rises in infections, hospital admissions and deaths. They asked me questions such as: “What should I say to my constituents who don’t see much Covid?”

I kept coming back to the point that you can either act now for a shorter time or you can act later for longer. You have a choice but only when it comes to timing: you cannot choose whether to act or not.

The MPs listened respectfully and, in a passive-aggressive sort of way, were apparently thankful for me appearing before them. But did I change anyone’s mind? No. Their minds seemed already made up and I believe the majority went on to vote against restrictions.

Dominic Cummings has shed disturbing light on the events of September 2020 and the efforts made to persuade Johnson that a circuit-breaker was needed. The prime minister did not want to act. Cummings claims that, to try to change Johnson’s mind, he organised a meeting on Tuesday September 22 at which Johnson was presented with the case numbers and infection rates by Catherine Cutts, a data scientist newly recruited to No 10. She showed Johnson the current data and then fast-forwarded a month, to role-play the scenario of infections and deaths projected for October.


Cummings says: “We presented it all as if we were about six weeks in the future. This was my best attempt to get people to actually see sense and realise that it would be better for the economy as well as for health to get on top of it fast. Johnson basically said, ‘I’m not doing it. It’s politically impossible and lockdowns don’t work.’ ”

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:16 pm

Sajid Javid had a meeting with the PM yesterday, suggesting Johnson will need to self isolate.

More lol.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:52 am

Oh, turns out they will after all.

Screenshot_20210718-115002.png

Trinucleus wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:10 am

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:52 am

Oh, turns out they will after all.

Screenshot_20210718-115002.png

But that nice Mr Jenrick has just carefully explained to Andrew Marr why it was fine that they weren't. He must be chuffed