Scrutable

Scotland, which had a massive peak in its case rate at the beginning of September of ~800/week/100,000 (about double the UK average at the time), has been having a high death rate recently (~3/week/100,000, about double the UK average) for some reason.

It's almost as if there's a roughly 0.4% CFR after about three weeks' lag.

I wonder if anyone's tried doing equations for that.

The fast fall in cases in Scotland is hard to explain. Plateaus and drifting down would seem more expected, but we get these plunges as well. Like it runs out of fuel - despite there being plenty of unvaxxed fuel left.

England seems to be oscillation mode, up a bit, down a bit, currently up a bit. There seems zero chance of exponential growth for this virus now.

Oscillations are exponentials too.

Just that they have imaginary time constants.

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:30 pm

I wonder if anyone's tried doing equations for that.

The fast fall in cases in Scotland is hard to explain. Plateaus and drifting down would seem more expected, but we get these plunges as well. Like it runs out of fuel - despite there being plenty of unvaxxed fuel left.

England seems to be oscillation mode, up a bit, down a bit, currently up a bit. There seems zero chance of exponential growth for this virus now.

We can't explain much about this virus.Best to be humble and plan for the worst.

The virus is very simple, it's people that are complicated.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:53 pm

The virus is very simple, it's people that are complicated.

Virus is not THAT simple. It keeps mutating and its characteristics change.
The interface between people, the virus, virus changes and human behaviour is hard to predict. Most predictions are wrong. Most optimistic predictions are very wrong.

We need to be humble and cautious going forward. We are not going back to 2019. 2022 is going to be harder than 2021.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:38 pm

2022 is going to be harder than 2021.

Why? Explain your working, supported by evidence.

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:43 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:38 pm

2022 is going to be harder than 2021.

Why? Explain your working, supported by evidence.

Because we don't know what is going to happen, and we are going to close our eyes, cross our fingers, and hope for the best.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:46 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:43 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:38 pm

2022 is going to be harder than 2021.

Why? Explain your working, supported by evidence.

Because we don't know what is going to happen, and we are going to close our eyes, cross our fingers, and hope for the best.

I’ve got news for you. You NEVER know what’s going to happen. Hoping for the best is all we’ve got. Whether that’s with Covid, driving on the motorway or walking down the high street.

While I'd agree that we don't (and indeed can't) know what is going to happen, there are clear reasons to think that 2022 should be better than 2021. At the beginning of 2021 very few people had been vaccinated or were otherwise immune to the virus. At the start of 2022 the vast majority of the adult population will have been vaccinated and the most vulnerable people will have had booster shots. A large proportion of the unvaccinated population will have some level of immunity due to previous infection.

Sure, a new variant could appear and mess everything up, but I don't think there's any reason to think that's particularly likely.

Many models are showing increased cases and hospitalizations in 2022 due to waning immunity, seasonality, return to pre pandemic social mixing.
( I know all models are wrong... still..)
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/ ... 17/photo/1

This is one of the more pessimistic takes, but the optimistic ones have been wrong most of the time.

Our death rate is twice that of most of Europe. We can mitigate this with returning to NPIs such as masking, restriction on large events, indoor dining, nightclubs and other super spreader localities.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:26 pm

Many models are showing increased cases and hospitalizations in 2022 due to waning immunity, seasonality, return to pre pandemic social mixing.
( I know all models are wrong... still..)
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/ ... 17/photo/1

This is one of the more pessimistic takes, but the optimistic ones have been wrong most of the time.

Our death rate is twice that of most of Europe. We can mitigate this with returning to NPIs such as masking, restriction on large events, indoor dining, nightclubs and other super spreader localities.

Deaths and hospitalizations are currently coming down slowly despite whatever it is that cases are doing. Perhaps there's nobody left to die.

But when he says "worse" in that particular tweet he doesn't mean worse in 2022 compared to 2021, he means worse in that prediction of 2022 compared to his other prediction of 2022.

From that thread:

So while we may be out of the pure epidemic phase, and the risks of catastrophe are massively reduced (barring a new worse-than-Delta variant), we could still see waves of cases/admissions that will feel quite epidemic-y (to coin another phrase) to those on the front line.

What does this all mean for policy? Well, in the short term, I think not much. We should continue to follow the track of living life in our (slightly adjusted) new-normal world, while keeping a close eye on how the covid stats evolve in the coming weeks and months.

There’s still a small risk we get a big peak – most likely in Q1 2022 – that would have us reaching for the govt’s “Plan B” of mild restrictions. But my best bet is that won’t be necessary, and while covid isn’t going away, we will be heading to full endemicity during 2022.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:47 pm

But when he says "worse" in that particular tweet he doesn't mean worse in 2022 compared to 2021, he means worse in that prediction of 2022 compared to his other prediction of 2022.

Well yes, compared to Jan 2021, but worse than now 2021. The NHS is already under tremendous strain.

You know hospitalizations are falling, right?

OK, so maybe about to creep up a bit now, but not as much as raw case numbers would suggest due to the very high proportion of children in cases currently.

But cases look to be reaching one of the peaks of their oscillations, probably due to school fires dampening a bit. Possibly a lull before University fires heat up in a couple of weeks.

The 7,000 hospitalizations a day by end of October folks are looking like idiots. Crying wolf comes with a cost.

New Zealand gives up on eradicating Covid: https://twitter.com/i/events/1445058645218168846

jdc wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:38 pm

New Zealand gives up on eradicating Covid: https://twitter.com/i/events/1445058645218168846

Too bad. New Zealand had a credible shot at eliminating the virus, the fatal mistake appears to be easing the lockdown from level 4 to level 3.
It will be interesting to see how their opening works out, they really need almost 100% vaccine coverage, as there is no population immunity.

It could be very hard on disadvantaged groups.

In a post on Twitter, the Maori writer and political commentator Morgan Godfery expressed concern about what abandoning the elimination strategy might mean for those in disadvantaged communities.

“The PM says we must now live with the virus,” he wrote. “But the ‘we’ means these same lines of inequality. The virus will now burrow in gangs, the transitional housing community, and unvaccinated brown people. In 2020, Jacinda asked for shared sacrifice. In 2021, it’s a particular sacrifice.”

I know this article is lifted directly from Kit Yates' twitter.
Pos LFT Neg PCR
But it does seem to be a genuine issue - I know a family for whom this is the case right now:
Child clear positive on routine LFT, asymptomatic so far, negative PCR next day (so back in school). At least 4 others in the same class have had the same thing.
Next day, parent clear positive on LFT, negative PCR next day, now feeling ill.

Anyone else come across this, or have any insight as to what might be going on here??

Seagull wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:18 pm

I know this article is lifted directly from Kit Yates' twitter.
Pos LFT Neg PCR
But it does seem to be a genuine issue - I know a family for whom this is the case right now:
Child clear positive on routine LFT, asymptomatic so far, negative PCR next day (so back in school). At least 4 others in the same class have had the same thing.
Next day, parent clear positive on LFT, negative PCR next day, now feeling ill.

Anyone else come across this, or have any insight as to what might be going on here??

I know of a case with multiple +ve LFTs and PCRs still negative. Teachers started to flag a potential problem on social media last week. There is a lot of testing going on in some schools because of the levels of covid in them, and certainly in some schools children being off with and +ve LFT (sometimes asymptomatic, sometimes not) and then returning 48 hrs later after a -ve PCR is happening often enough that it's being noticed. It doesn't seem to have been the case last term.

ETA there was a bit of a theory that it was happening more in the SW, I don't know if that is still the case.

Seagull wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:18 pm

I know this article is lifted directly from Kit Yates' twitter.
Pos LFT Neg PCR
But it does seem to be a genuine issue - I know a family for whom this is the case right now:
Child clear positive on routine LFT, asymptomatic so far, negative PCR next day (so back in school). At least 4 others in the same class have had the same thing.
Next day, parent clear positive on LFT, negative PCR next day, now feeling ill.

Anyone else come across this, or have any insight as to what might be going on here??

It happened to a colleague's partner recently; she was symptomatic and lateral flow positive, had a test via pillar 2 which was negative, didn't believe it so colleague arranged test through internal staff testing (pillar 1) which was positive.

Seagull wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:18 pm

Anyone else come across this, or have any insight as to what might be going on here??

There's a new type of LFT being issued that requires a nasal swab only (not throat) presumably as it's more sensitive.

If you look on Mumsnet you'll find various people saying they got positive LFTs using these - and negative PCRs.

E.g. https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronaviru ... -flow-test

NEED HELP!!! Every lateral flow test I take comes back as positive. This is the new 15mins nose ones. 10 taken now. I've had 3 PCR test and have all came back negative. I don't have symptoms.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronaviru ... -PCR-twice

There’s also this thread. I thought there was another one too, but I can’t find it. I’m not convinced the LFTs are the issue. If anything, the move to only nasal swabs makes them less likely to pick up a positive.

If the problem is the PCRs it does make you wonder just how high the rate in schools might actually be. Not that covid spreads in schools, of course.

Looks like they consider the issue to be with PCR tests. The latest advice is to isolate if you are symptomatic, but have a negative PCR.

That’s going to cause chaos isn’t it? Mind you, perhaps people with colds and flu should isolate anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... lf-isolate

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:40 pm

Looks like they consider the issue to be with PCR tests. The latest advice is to isolate if you are symptomatic, but have a negative PCR.

That’s going to cause chaos isn’t it? Mind you, perhaps people with colds and flu should isolate anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... lf-isolate

So has this been going on since the start of the pandemic? The number of cases must be much higher than testing indicates.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:53 am

jdc wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:38 pm

New Zealand gives up on eradicating Covid: https://twitter.com/i/events/1445058645218168846

Too bad. New Zealand had a credible shot at eliminating the virus, the fatal mistake appears to be easing the lockdown from level 4 to level 3.
It will be interesting to see how their opening works out, they really need almost 100% vaccine coverage, as there is no population immunity.

No country could eradicate the virus alone, unless they maintained an eternal quarantine system. I do not think New Zealand was ever planning to do that, even if that is what the linked headline suggests.