Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:21 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:40 pm
You know hospital rates are falling, right?
The last time you wrote that sort of thing about cases the trend started going up ...

Herainestold
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:40 pm
You know hospital rates are falling, right?
Looks more like a plateau to me. Meanwhile cases and deaths are both rising.
The UK currently ranks 14th out of 200 nations for covid infection rates, as the UK recorded 143 deaths and 39,851 new infections on Wednesday.

191,771 people tested positive for covid in England in the week to 22 September, an 18% rise from the previous week.

Globally, the figure was only exceeded by the US which recorded 84,348 new cases – and was far greater than the numbers posted by Brazil (14,423 new cases), Germany (11,780), France (5,859) and Italy (2,962).

Previously Sajid Javid had said that vaccine passports would only be needed if cases surged. The health secretary is yet to say whether the government will reverse their previous u-turn to not require them.
https://www.politics.co.uk/news-in-brie ... the-world/
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:02 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:29 pm
Meanwhile cases and deaths are both rising.
This is outright false. Deaths are falling. You need to return to reality.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:30 pm

Deaths are falling but then they were high before.

As for cases, since the minimum in the middle of September it seems like the behaviour is following the same trend as it did in the second half of August, so we'll see if there ends up being a bit of a peak now like there was in the first half of September.
peak-shift.png
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molto tricky

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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:34 pm

Oscillation.

The Age of Exponential is over.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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bob sterman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:34 pm
Oscillation.

The Age of Exponential is over.
Errr...you might want to rephrase that - sine (of oscillating wave fame) can be represented as a complex exponential. :P

Perhaps you mean the "age of dramatic and sustained exponential growth"?

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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:58 pm

Early in the pandemic maths pedants made the mistake of insisting slow exponential growth was "exponential". Which it was - but exponential now has a colloquial meaning. Every day language cannot be forced to match proper definitions.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:58 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:34 pm
Oscillation.

The Age of Exponential is over.
Errr...you might want to rephrase that - sine (of oscillating wave fame) can be represented as a complex exponential. :P

Perhaps you mean the "age of dramatic and sustained exponential growth"?
Yes I already made this stupid smartarse point.
shpalman wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:41 pm
Oscillations are exponentials too.

Just that they have imaginary time constants.
molto tricky

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bob sterman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:26 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:58 pm
Yes I already made this stupid smartarse point.
Great pedants think alike!! :mrgreen:

But some (e.g. me) a bit more slowly than others.

Herainestold
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:34 pm

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”

“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that’s all.”
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

Herainestold
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:14 pm

Novavax reports phase 3 trial in US, Mexico: overall efficacy of 90% against symptomatic infections. All pre-Delta, so these numbers will not be replicated, but the result is encouraging.Dose interval 21 days. Need to see another trial against Delta to see if this vaccine will be useful in the long term. As far as i know this vaccine has not been approved anywhere.
The primary end point was vaccine efficacy (VE) against reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-confirmed Covid-19 in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants ≥7 days after the second dose administration. RESULTS Of the 29,949 participants randomized between December 27, 2020, and February 18, 2021, 29,582 (median age: 47 years, 12.6% ≥65 years) received ≥1 dose: 19,714 received vaccine and 9868 placebo. In the per-protocol population, there were 77 Covid-19 cases; 14 among vaccine and 63 among placebo recipients (VE: 90.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 82.9 to 94.6, P<0.001). All moderate-to-severe cases occurred in placebo recipients, yielding VE of 100% (95% CI 87.0 to 100). Most sequenced viral genomes
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21264567v1
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

Herainestold
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 pm

Cuba is exporting their Abdala vaccine without WHO approval.

As a planet we need to break the Pfizer/AZ/ Moderna monopsony, and make sure that the Global South has access to modern effective Covid 19 vaccines, but should the WHO be circumvented?
Last week, Cuba began exporting its own COVID-19 vaccines. The problem is that while Cuba of course insists its vaccines are safe and effective, the World Health Organization has not approved them yet.

And that could become a big controversy in Latin America and the Caribbean, where Venezuela is the first customer for Cuban vaccines — and where many doctors argue they shouldn't be administering those shots without the WHO green light.
https://www.wlrn.org/news/2021-10-05/cu ... o-approval
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.We need both to end this pandemic.

Millennie Al
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:56 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 pm
As a planet we need to break the Pfizer/AZ/ Moderna monopsony
No. We don't. And I doubt that "monopsony" means what you think it does.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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bob sterman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:19 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 pm
As a planet we need to break the Pfizer/AZ/ Moderna monopsony,
You mean the Pfizer + Biontech, Astrazeneca + Serum Institute of India, Moderna + Lonza, Janssen septopoly?

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