Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:21 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:40 pm
You know hospital rates are falling, right?
The last time you wrote that sort of thing about cases the trend started going up ...

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:40 pm
You know hospital rates are falling, right?
Looks more like a plateau to me. Meanwhile cases and deaths are both rising.
The UK currently ranks 14th out of 200 nations for covid infection rates, as the UK recorded 143 deaths and 39,851 new infections on Wednesday.

191,771 people tested positive for covid in England in the week to 22 September, an 18% rise from the previous week.

Globally, the figure was only exceeded by the US which recorded 84,348 new cases – and was far greater than the numbers posted by Brazil (14,423 new cases), Germany (11,780), France (5,859) and Italy (2,962).

Previously Sajid Javid had said that vaccine passports would only be needed if cases surged. The health secretary is yet to say whether the government will reverse their previous u-turn to not require them.
https://www.politics.co.uk/news-in-brie ... the-world/
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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:02 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:29 pm
Meanwhile cases and deaths are both rising.
This is outright false. Deaths are falling. You need to return to reality.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:30 pm

Deaths are falling but then they were high before.

As for cases, since the minimum in the middle of September it seems like the behaviour is following the same trend as it did in the second half of August, so we'll see if there ends up being a bit of a peak now like there was in the first half of September.
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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:34 pm

Oscillation.

The Age of Exponential is over.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:34 pm
Oscillation.

The Age of Exponential is over.
Errr...you might want to rephrase that - sine (of oscillating wave fame) can be represented as a complex exponential. :P

Perhaps you mean the "age of dramatic and sustained exponential growth"?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:58 pm

Early in the pandemic maths pedants made the mistake of insisting slow exponential growth was "exponential". Which it was - but exponential now has a colloquial meaning. Every day language cannot be forced to match proper definitions.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:58 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:34 pm
Oscillation.

The Age of Exponential is over.
Errr...you might want to rephrase that - sine (of oscillating wave fame) can be represented as a complex exponential. :P

Perhaps you mean the "age of dramatic and sustained exponential growth"?
Yes I already made this stupid smartarse point.
shpalman wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:41 pm
Oscillations are exponentials too.

Just that they have imaginary time constants.
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bob sterman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:26 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:58 pm
Yes I already made this stupid smartarse point.
Great pedants think alike!! :mrgreen:

But some (e.g. me) a bit more slowly than others.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:34 pm

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”

“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that’s all.”
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:14 pm

Novavax reports phase 3 trial in US, Mexico: overall efficacy of 90% against symptomatic infections. All pre-Delta, so these numbers will not be replicated, but the result is encouraging.Dose interval 21 days. Need to see another trial against Delta to see if this vaccine will be useful in the long term. As far as i know this vaccine has not been approved anywhere.
The primary end point was vaccine efficacy (VE) against reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-confirmed Covid-19 in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants ≥7 days after the second dose administration. RESULTS Of the 29,949 participants randomized between December 27, 2020, and February 18, 2021, 29,582 (median age: 47 years, 12.6% ≥65 years) received ≥1 dose: 19,714 received vaccine and 9868 placebo. In the per-protocol population, there were 77 Covid-19 cases; 14 among vaccine and 63 among placebo recipients (VE: 90.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 82.9 to 94.6, P<0.001). All moderate-to-severe cases occurred in placebo recipients, yielding VE of 100% (95% CI 87.0 to 100). Most sequenced viral genomes
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21264567v1
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 pm

Cuba is exporting their Abdala vaccine without WHO approval.

As a planet we need to break the Pfizer/AZ/ Moderna monopsony, and make sure that the Global South has access to modern effective Covid 19 vaccines, but should the WHO be circumvented?
Last week, Cuba began exporting its own COVID-19 vaccines. The problem is that while Cuba of course insists its vaccines are safe and effective, the World Health Organization has not approved them yet.

And that could become a big controversy in Latin America and the Caribbean, where Venezuela is the first customer for Cuban vaccines — and where many doctors argue they shouldn't be administering those shots without the WHO green light.
https://www.wlrn.org/news/2021-10-05/cu ... o-approval
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:56 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 pm
As a planet we need to break the Pfizer/AZ/ Moderna monopsony
No. We don't. And I doubt that "monopsony" means what you think it does.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:19 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 pm
As a planet we need to break the Pfizer/AZ/ Moderna monopsony,
You mean the Pfizer + Biontech, Astrazeneca + Serum Institute of India, Moderna + Lonza, Janssen septopoly?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:27 am

Cuba donates 1.2 million covid vaccines to Nicaragua.
Managua, October 21 (RHC)-- Nicaragua received on Wednesday a donation of 1.2 million doses of the vaccines against coronavirus developed by Cuba and whose emergency use was approved by the authorities of the Central American country.

The batch of Abdalá and Soberana 02 vaccines is the first shipment of the three planned before the end of the year, to total the seven million doses agreed between the two countries, said the Cuban ambassador in Nicaragua, Juan Carlos Hernández.

For her part, Nicaraguan Minister of Health Martha Reyes pointed out that the vaccines will be used for immunization against the coronavirus in children between two and 17 years of age.

In this sense, Vice President Rosario Murillo reminded that the vaccination "is voluntary" for all parents who want to take their children to the health centers where the drug will be applied beginning Monday, October 25. Murillo described the arrival of the Abdala and Soberana 02 vaccines on Nicaraguan soil as a hymn to friendship between the two peoples.

Since March, Nicaragua has been vaccinating people over 30 years of age, the chronically ill and pregnant women against the coronavirus with AstraZeneca, Covishield, Sputnik V and Pfizer vaccines.
https://www.radiohc.cu/en/noticias/inte ... l-vaccines
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:11 am

molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:09 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:11 am
Third Pfizer dose is effective https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status ... e3wPw&s=09
That's a very good result
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:33 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:11 am
Third Pfizer dose is effective https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status ... e3wPw&s=09
It is a booster. It works very well after the boost. How long will that protection last?
Will we need to get boosted every 3 or 4 months?

I can foresee a scenario where every autumn we will need a pre winter boost, along with a pre winter circuit breaker lockdown to bring cases to a manageable level.

The booster efficacy is good news, very good news.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:34 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:33 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:11 am
Third Pfizer dose is effective https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status ... e3wPw&s=09
It is a booster. It works very well after the boost. How long will that protection last?
Will we need to get boosted every 3 or 4 months?

I can foresee a scenario where every autumn we will need a pre winter boost, along with a pre winter circuit breaker lockdown to bring cases to a manageable level.

The booster efficacy is good news, very good news.
My ill-informed ad-hoc reckon is that protection wanes after every dose, but the more doses you get, the more slowly it will wane.

Italy is now listing about 200,000 additional doses administered (23% of the population who would be eligible for that) and 740,000 booster doses administered (25% of the population who would be eligible for that having completed their original vaccination cycle more than six months ago). I don't really understand the distinction.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:29 am

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:34 am

My ill-informed ad-hoc reckon is that protection wanes after every dose, but the more doses you get, the more slowly it will wane.


I don't know if that is the way it works.

With the initial vaccination it looks like protection is at a maximum sometime after the second dose and efficacy against infection wanes to effectively zero after three months. I don't think we have the data to know how long the efficacy from a booster dose lasts, but we shouldn't assume that it will last any longer.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:44 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:29 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:34 am

My ill-informed ad-hoc reckon is that protection wanes after every dose, but the more doses you get, the more slowly it will wane.


I don't know if that is the way it works.

With the initial vaccination it looks like protection is at a maximum sometime after the second dose and efficacy against infection wanes to effectively zero after three months. I don't think we have the data to know how long the efficacy from a booster dose lasts, but we shouldn't assume that it will last any longer.
When I was looking at the AstraZeneca and J&J trial results, it seemed like the only reason that the former was a two-dose regime and the latter a one-dose was that this is how they decided (in AZ's case, after they'd started) to do the trials. Real world data on AZ eventually demonstrated that 10-12 weeks was the right time to give the second dose because efficacy was dropping; the J&J phase-III trial stopped at 12 weeks under conditions in which it seemed like the wave in the population was over in general so there were no more cases.

That same real world AZ data suggested protection taking a couple of weeks to build up after the first dose.

So I'd imagine protection coming up to a peak and then tailing off slowly. Maybe (eta: on administering more doses) only the peak gets closer to 100% and the tail has the same half-life, maybe the half-life gets longer, maybe we don't really know yet (and of course we can't know yet for the third doses which are only being given now).

But even if it's no longer effective against infection, it will still be effective to some degree against severe outcomes and death. It was never that clear how much the vaccines protected against asymptomatic or mild infection (let alone transmission) even in the trials which regularly tested the participants, but it didn't seem to be very much.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:53 pm

mRNA vaccines induce durable immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm0829
The durability of immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination remains unclear. Here, we longitudinally profiled vaccine responses in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and recovered individuals for 6 months after vaccination. Antibodies declined from peak levels but remained detectable in most subjects at 6 months. We found mRNA vaccines generated functional memory B cells that increased from 3-6 months post-vaccination, with the majority of these cells cross-binding the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. mRNA vaccination further induced antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, and early CD4+ T cell responses correlated with long-term humoral immunity. Recall responses to vaccination in individuals with pre-existing immunity primarily increased antibody levels without substantially altering antibody decay rates. Together, these findings demonstrate robust cellular immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants for at least 6 months after mRNA vaccination.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:30 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:44 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:29 am
shpalman wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:34 am

My ill-informed ad-hoc reckon is that protection wanes after every dose, but the more doses you get, the more slowly it will wane.


I don't know if that is the way it works.

With the initial vaccination it looks like protection is at a maximum sometime after the second dose and efficacy against infection wanes to effectively zero after three months. I don't think we have the data to know how long the efficacy from a booster dose lasts, but we shouldn't assume that it will last any longer.
When I was looking at the AstraZeneca and J&J trial results, it seemed like the only reason that the former was a two-dose regime and the latter a one-dose was that this is how they decided (in AZ's case, after they'd started) to do the trials. Real world data on AZ eventually demonstrated that 10-12 weeks was the right time to give the second dose because efficacy was dropping; the J&J phase-III trial stopped at 12 weeks under conditions in which it seemed like the wave in the population was over in general so there were no more cases.

That same real world AZ data suggested protection taking a couple of weeks to build up after the first dose.

So I'd imagine protection coming up to a peak and then tailing off slowly. Maybe (eta: on administering more doses) only the peak gets closer to 100% and the tail has the same half-life, maybe the half-life gets longer, maybe we don't really know yet (and of course we can't know yet for the third doses which are only being given now).

But even if it's no longer effective against infection, it will still be effective to some degree against severe outcomes and death. It was never that clear how much the vaccines protected against asymptomatic or mild infection (let alone transmission) even in the trials which regularly tested the participants, but it didn't seem to be very much.
I think you are right based on what we know and can deduce at the present. If you get a booster right now you will have greater protection against symptomatic infection for a period of some weeks but probably not more than three months. Your protection against more severe out comes should be good, but may not be any greater than before.As ever, your protection , even if fully vaccinated, depends greatly on your age. People over 60 are still at high risk, even if vaccinated, and should take suitable precautions, as long as circulating cases remain high, and probably for the rest of their days, as the UK endemicity level is rather high, shows no signs of decreasing.

In fact if I was in that category I would think about leaving the UK for health reasons. bl..dy Brexit is going to kill a lot of old people. Who were the ones who voted for it, so maybe that is poetic justice.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:21 pm

Novavax applies for UK authorization.
GAITHERSBURG, Md., Oct. 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), a biotechnology company dedicated to developing and commercializing next-generation vaccines for serious infectious diseases, today announced the completion of its rolling regulatory submission to the U.K. Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. The company's application for Conditional Marketing Authorization (CMA) marks the first submission for authorization of a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine in the United Kingdom.
Clinical data from a pivotal Phase 3 trial of 15,000 volunteers in the U.K. was submitted to MHRA earlier this year in which NVX-CoV2373 demonstrated efficacy of 96.4% against the original virus strain, 86.3% against the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant and 89.7% efficacy overall, as well as a favorable safety and tolerability profile. The submission also includes data from PREVENT-19, a 30,000-person trial in the U.S. and Mexico, which demonstrated 100% protection against moderate and severe disease and 90.4% efficacy overall. NVX-CoV2373 was generally well-tolerated and elicited a robust antibody response.
All trial data is pre-Delta, so expect efficacy to be lower now.

https://ir.novavax.com/2021-10-27-Novav ... ed-Kingdom
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:46 pm

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tember2021
1.Main points
Between 2 January and 24 September 2021, the age-adjusted risk of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) was 32 times greater in unvaccinated people than in fully vaccinated individuals.

The weekly age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for deaths involving COVID-19 were consistently lower for people who had received two vaccinations compared with one or no vaccinations.

ASMRs take into account differences in age structure and population size to allow comparisons between vaccination status groups; however some differences between the groups such as health status may remain and partly explain the differences in ASMRs.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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