Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

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discovolante
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by discovolante » Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:10 am

raven wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:00 am
Where individuals expressed hesitancy, a common reason was to make reference to the inconsistent approaches to use of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine in the Global North. Specific comments often focused on the reactions to the blood clots as possible adverse events. To quote one of our participants: “Why would I want that damaged white-man product?” News travels fast and easily in a globalized world.
Which is perfectly understandable. I'm surprised that we had such high uptake of AZ here really, given that fatal blood clots happened.

There's probably some interesting psychological research to be done on how perception of risk differs between countries during all this. I reckon we're all a bit less fatalistic about infectious disease in the Global North because we're far less used to burying children due to it. You get inured to risks you live with every day.
I'm not sure I totally understand. If someone is forced to live with the relatively high likelihood that say, their child will die young, or they themselves might, would that not take a fairly serious psychological toll, even if they accepted it was beyond their control? Especially when you know millions of other people don't have those worries and are doing f.ck all to help you either. I dunno. Maybe that's what you're saying but I just couldn't tell.
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raven
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by raven » Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:28 am

discovolante wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:10 am
raven wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:00 am
Where individuals expressed hesitancy, a common reason was to make reference to the inconsistent approaches to use of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine in the Global North. Specific comments often focused on the reactions to the blood clots as possible adverse events. To quote one of our participants: “Why would I want that damaged white-man product?” News travels fast and easily in a globalized world.
Which is perfectly understandable. I'm surprised that we had such high uptake of AZ here really, given that fatal blood clots happened.

There's probably some interesting psychological research to be done on how perception of risk differs between countries during all this. I reckon we're all a bit less fatalistic about infectious disease in the Global North because we're far less used to burying children due to it. You get inured to risks you live with every day.
I'm not sure I totally understand. If someone is forced to live with the relatively high likelihood that say, their child will die young, or they themselves might, would that not take a fairly serious psychological toll, even if they accepted it was beyond their control? Especially when you know millions of other people don't have those worries and are doing f.ck all to help you either. I dunno. Maybe that's what you're saying but I just couldn't tell.
Maybe, sort of?

If I get particularly stressed/wound up about something I can get to a point when I just say f.ck it, it'll happen or it won't and get all zen about it. So in a similar vein, serious psychological toll leading to fatalism perhaps? Particularly if you view the global system as not something you can change...

Or you get bitter and cynical. And very distrustful of those who promise help, but are always a day late and a dollar short.

It's that or furious, I suppose. Furious can get things done, but you've got to have the energy for it.

I was just spitballing really, reasoning that perhaps us lucky Global North residents are more scared of disease because we're not used to it killing so many. It's kind of like we're more jealous (in the sense of wanting to hold on to/guard) our already longer lifespans, so we rush out and get vaccinated. Most of us, anyway.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Martin_B » Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:50 am

raven wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:00 am
Which is perfectly understandable. I'm surprised that we had such high uptake of AZ here really, given that fatal blood clots happened.
Wasn't the UK much further down the line with vaccinations when the link to blood clots was found? That probably helped the public realise that the risk of developing clots was minor (relatively) to the benefit of the vaccine.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:13 am

Martin_B wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:50 am
raven wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:00 am
Which is perfectly understandable. I'm surprised that we had such high uptake of AZ here really, given that fatal blood clots happened.
Wasn't the UK much further down the line with vaccinations when the link to blood clots was found? That probably helped the public realise that the risk of developing clots was minor (relatively) to the benefit of the vaccine.
In the UK you'd already given lots of AZ to older people, in which there's much less of a blood clot issue, despite no evidence of efficacy in that age range.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:38 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:13 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:50 am
raven wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:00 am
Which is perfectly understandable. I'm surprised that we had such high uptake of AZ here really, given that fatal blood clots happened.
Wasn't the UK much further down the line with vaccinations when the link to blood clots was found? That probably helped the public realise that the risk of developing clots was minor (relatively) to the benefit of the vaccine.
In the UK you'd already given lots of AZ to older people, in which there's much less of a blood clot issue, despite no evidence of efficacy in that age range.
My bold. Did you mean to say that there was no evidence of AZ efficacy in older people? If so, was that really the case?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jimbob » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:57 pm

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... 43e2-H.pdf (PDF)

Age Standardised Mortality rates for non Covid causes seem lower amongst vaccinated groups

I guess there are two options.

Undiagnosed Covid and those who are unvaccinated are possibly less likely to follow medical advice.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:09 pm

KAJ wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:38 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:13 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:50 am


Wasn't the UK much further down the line with vaccinations when the link to blood clots was found? That probably helped the public realise that the risk of developing clots was minor (relatively) to the benefit of the vaccine.
In the UK you'd already given lots of AZ to older people, in which there's much less of a blood clot issue, despite no evidence of efficacy in that age range.
My bold. Did you mean to say that there was no evidence of AZ efficacy in older people? If so, was that really the case?
I don't mean that it wasn't actually effective, but the Phase III trials were mainly done in younger age groups; AZ claimed this was for ethical reasons but that the published Phase II results demonstrated similar antibody responses in all adult age groups. Various continental European countries were not convinced. (See e.g. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... under-65s/ )
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:40 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:09 pm
KAJ wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:38 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:13 am

In the UK you'd already given lots of AZ to older people, in which there's much less of a blood clot issue, despite no evidence of efficacy in that age range.
My bold. Did you mean to say that there was no evidence of AZ efficacy in older people? If so, was that really the case?
I don't mean that it wasn't actually effective, but the Phase III trials were mainly done in younger age groups; AZ claimed this was for ethical reasons but that the published Phase II results demonstrated similar antibody responses in all adult age groups. Various continental European countries were not convinced. (See e.g. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... under-65s/ )
Thanks, that's clear.

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bob sterman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:40 pm

"Real world" data has since accumulated demonstrating the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine in older people...

https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/dam ... ummary.pdf

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Millennie Al » Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:36 am

KAJ wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:38 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:13 am
In the UK you'd already given lots of AZ to older people, in which there's much less of a blood clot issue, despite no evidence of efficacy in that age range.
My bold. Did you mean to say that there was no evidence of AZ efficacy in older people? If so, was that really the case?
There was always evidence, but it was initially weak. The initial recruitment for the trials was limited to people in the age range of 18 to 55. This is a safety measure in case there are side-effects - you don't want them to arise in any but the healthiest people. In the absence of any evidence that the vaccine would behave differently in different age groups, results from ages 18-55 are evidence of similar effect in other age groups. The effect may be of a different strength, and other factors might arise, but it would be rather surprising to find that within 18-55 the effects have the typical variation, but outside that range something different occurs.

Biology is very, very complex. There are no absolute guarantees. While it is good to be cautious, it is bad to be paranoid. That way lies the madness of anti-vaxxers and quack medicine where no test is good enough as there's always some way it falls short.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:25 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:36 am
KAJ wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:38 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:13 am
In the UK you'd already given lots of AZ to older people, in which there's much less of a blood clot issue, despite no evidence of efficacy in that age range.
My bold. Did you mean to say that there was no evidence of AZ efficacy in older people? If so, was that really the case?
There was always evidence, but it was initially weak. The initial recruitment for the trials was limited to people in the age range of 18 to 55. This is a safety measure in case there are side-effects - you don't want them to arise in any but the healthiest people. In the absence of any evidence that the vaccine would behave differently in different age groups, results from ages 18-55 are evidence of similar effect in other age groups. The effect may be of a different strength, and other factors might arise, but it would be rather surprising to find that within 18-55 the effects have the typical variation, but outside that range something different occurs.

Biology is very, very complex. There are no absolute guarantees. While it is good to be cautious, it is bad to be paranoid. That way lies the madness of anti-vaxxers and quack medicine where no test is good enough as there's always some way it falls short.
But ironically it turned out that the main dangerous side effect seemed to arise in the youngest healthiest people. Just that it was at the few-per-million level so it didn't show up in the ~20,000 trial subjects.

At the time, stopping the use of AstraZeneca in national rollouts didn't make much difference on the continent because not many doses had even arrived.

(it's roughly at this point that I had my first AZ dose; in Italy they gave it to younger people in priority professions while continuing the age-based rollout with the mRNA ones)

Various European countries eventually flipped to either recommending it only for older people, or in a weirdly narrow age range, but the damage regarding perception of its efficacy had been done so when doses did finally arrive on the continent in decent numbers people didn't necessarily want them.

(The original published efficacy was low under the standard dosing regime, my informed consent form indicated 59.5% back when I had it.)
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:13 pm

Plant based covid vaccination shows good efficacy against Delta.
Pharmaceutical companies Medicago and GlaxoSmithKline announced on Tuesday “positive efficacy and safety results” from a global trial using what they say is the world’s first plant-based coronavirus vaccine.

Studying 24,000 adults across six countries, the late-stage trial found that the overall efficacy rate of the vaccine candidate was 71 percent, rising to 75.3 percent against “COVID-19 of any severity for the globally dominant Delta variant.” However, the trial did not include the newly identified omicron variant.
The WHO previously called plant-based vaccines, made by producing antigens in genetically modified plants that can then be extracted and purified by conventional methods, a “new and exciting possibility.”

“Plant-derived vaccines have several advantages,” the WHO said, including being “produced cheaply in very high amounts,” using carrier plants such as potatoes and corn. The antigens created “are stable and can be stored for long periods of time,” it said, adding that “the likelihood that contamination by a plant virus would have an adverse effect on humans is almost negligible.”
Medicago said its vaccination regimen calls for two doses given intramuscularly 21 days apart and for the vaccine to be stored at 36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit (2 to 8 degrees Celsius).
Don't get too excited, though. It hasn't been approved anywhere and likely isn't effective against Omicron.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/first ... ar-AARyQgo
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:49 pm

Well this virus isn't going anywhere anytime soon and there'll probably be another pandemic along soon enough. So I'm getting fairly excited about this news. If antigens can be “produced cheaply in very high amounts” and the vaccines only have to be stored at fridge temperatures then we might not have such catastrophic moral failures in future.

Thanks H, that's very interesting and cheering news.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:45 pm

jdc wrote:
Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:49 pm
Well this virus isn't going anywhere anytime soon and there'll probably be another pandemic along soon enough. So I'm getting fairly excited about this news. If antigens can be “produced cheaply in very high amounts” and the vaccines only have to be stored at fridge temperatures then we might not have such catastrophic moral failures in future.

Thanks H, that's very interesting and cheering news.
Will the anti-mRNA people accept a vaccine based on GMO plants?
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jdc » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:44 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:45 pm
jdc wrote:
Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:49 pm
Well this virus isn't going anywhere anytime soon and there'll probably be another pandemic along soon enough. So I'm getting fairly excited about this news. If antigens can be “produced cheaply in very high amounts” and the vaccines only have to be stored at fridge temperatures then we might not have such catastrophic moral failures in future.

Thanks H, that's very interesting and cheering news.
Will the anti-mRNA people accept a vaccine based on GMO plants?
I've got a suspicion that you might know these people better than me tbh. Not sure I've even met anyone who's anti-GM or anti-mRNA.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:44 pm

jdc wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:44 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:45 pm
jdc wrote:
Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:49 pm
Well this virus isn't going anywhere anytime soon and there'll probably be another pandemic along soon enough. So I'm getting fairly excited about this news. If antigens can be “produced cheaply in very high amounts” and the vaccines only have to be stored at fridge temperatures then we might not have such catastrophic moral failures in future.

Thanks H, that's very interesting and cheering news.
Will the anti-mRNA people accept a vaccine based on GMO plants?
I've got a suspicion that you might know these people better than me tbh. Not sure I've even met anyone who's anti-GM or anti-mRNA.
I know a lot of these people on the interwebz, not so much in real life. Some of them surprisingly ended up getting vaxed after railing against it for months.The anti-mRNA ones likely don't even know what mRNA or RNA actually is. I barely know. And GMOs are Frankenfoods, but if we can use them to grow vaccines, that seems like a good thing.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:40 am

Anti mRNA commentary from SBM.
What I’m referring to is the claim that I’ve been seeing that the existing COVID-19 vaccines developed by Moderna and by Pfizer/BioNTech and currently being distributed under an emergency use authorization (EUA) by the FDA are not, in fact, really “vaccines” at all. Why? Because they are not “traditional” vaccines based on killed organism, proteins, or weakened versions of pathogenic viruses, but mRNA-based vaccines. This claim tends to take on one of two flavors. The first is that mRNA vaccines are not “vaccines” but rather “medical devices”. This one is the easiest one to dispose of which is why I will deal with it first. The second is that mRNA vaccines are not “vaccines” at all, but rather “gene therapy”, which sounds more plausible if you don’t know molecular biology but is also very much incorrect. According to antivaxxers, the consequences of mRNA vaccines being “gene therapy” are horrible complications, specifically that they will “prematurely kill large amounts of the population and disable exponentially more”.
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/the-la ... e-therapy/
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:01 am

Novavax close to European Emergency Authorization.
The head of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on Tuesday said that it could soon approve the COVID-19 vaccine developed by U.S. biotech company Novavax (NVAX.O).
"The vaccine from Novavax could be authorised in the very near future," Emer Cooke told EU health ministers during a public session of a meeting in Brussels.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no ... 021-12-07/
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:31 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:46 am


T-cell vaccines could top up immunity to COVID, as variants loom large
Peptide jabs targeting T cells could be especially useful for people with compromised immune systems, as backups for spike-based vaccines, or against Omicron and other emerging variants.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-021-00025-3

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:45 am

What does Omicron mean for future COVID-19 vaccinations?
Scientists debate the best strategy for now and later: normal boosters, custom variant shots, or universal coronavirus vaccines
https://www.science.org/content/article ... ccinations

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by headshot » Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:04 am

US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say
Within weeks, scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research expect to announce that they have developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as from previous SARS-origin viruses that have killed millions of people worldwide.

The achievement is the result of almost two years of work on the virus. The Army lab received its first DNA sequencing of the COVID-19 virus in early 2020. Very early on, Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch decided to focus on making a vaccine that would work against not just the existing strain but all of its potential variants as well.

Walter Reed’s Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine, or SpFN, completed animal trials earlier this year with positive results. Phase 1 of human trials, which tested the vaccine against Omicron and the other variants, wrapped up this month, again with positive results that are undergoing final review, Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch, said in an exclusive interview with Defense One.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by raven » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:52 pm

Well, that'll be great if it works and if they share it with everybody.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:09 pm

The website of the little city's local tv channel's news reports on Mucosal immune response in BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine recipients and THEY GIVE THE NAME OF THE JOURNAL AND THE TITLE OF THE ARTICLE AND A LINK TO IT which the f.cking Guardian and the BBC generally still haven't figured out how the f.ck to do.

I mean, they're mainly mentioning it because it was carried out near here, but still.
We performed an observational cohort study recruiting 60 healthcare workers (HCW) of our hospital (ASST dei Sette Laghi) who underwent a complete BNT162b2 vaccination protocol (two doses, three weeks apart) between December 30th, 2020, and January 20th, 2021, to assess both the systemic and mucosal antibody response elicited by the vaccination.
... intramuscular vaccination drastically increases both total and NAb concentration in the serum but not in the salivary compartment, indicating that at least oral mucosal immunity is poorly activated by this vaccination protocol.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:38 pm


Waning of SARS-CoV-2 booster viral-load reduction effectiveness

Abstract
The BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to reduce viral load of breakthrough infections (BTIs), an important factor affecting infectiousness. This viral-load protective effect has been waning with time post the second vaccine and later restored with a booster shot. It is currently unclear though for how long this regained effectiveness lasts. Analyzing Ct values of SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR tests of over 22,000 infections during a Delta-variant-dominant period in Israel, we found that this viral-load reduction effectiveness significantly declines within months post the booster dose. Adjusting for age, sex and calendric date, Ct values of RdRp gene initially increased by 2.7 [CI: 2.3-3.0] relative to unvaccinated in the first month post the booster dose, yet then decayed to a difference of 1.3 [CI: 0.7-1.9] in the second month and became small and insignificant in the third to fourth months. The rate and magnitude of this post-booster decline in viral-load reduction effectiveness mirror those observed post the second vaccine. These results suggest rapid waning of the booster's effectiveness in reducing infectiousness, possibly affecting community-level spread of the virus.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268424v1

tl;dr effect of the third booster on being infectious wanes after a few months, at the same rate as the second dose.

IMHO we may be looking at biannual vaccinations indefinitely.

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