Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Posted: Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:21 pm
Moderna.
Us humans are starting to make this look easy.
Us humans are starting to make this look easy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rials-showAn interim analysis released on Monday, and based on 95 patients with confirmed Covid infections, found the candidate vaccine has an efficacy of 94.5%. The company said it now plans to apply to the US regulator, the Food and Drug Administration, for emergency-use authorisation in the coming weeks. In the analysis, 90 of the patients received the placebo with the remaining five the vaccine.
I'm sceptical as to how you could determine efficacy to 1 part in 200 with such a small sample size.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:30 pmhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rials-showAn interim analysis released on Monday, and based on 95 patients with confirmed Covid infections, found the candidate vaccine has an efficacy of 94.5%. The company said it now plans to apply to the US regulator, the Food and Drug Administration, for emergency-use authorisation in the coming weeks. In the analysis, 90 of the patients received the placebo with the remaining five the vaccine.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... 19-vaccineCAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 16, 2020-- Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines to create a new generation of transformative medicines for patients, today announced new data showing that mRNA-1273, its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, remains stable at 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F), the temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator, for 30 days. Stability testing supports this extension from an earlier estimate of 7 days. mRNA-1273 remains stable at -20° C (-4°F) for up to six months, at refrigerated conditions for up to 30 days and at room temperature for up to 12 hours.
“We believe that our investments in mRNA delivery technology and manufacturing process development will allow us to store and ship our COVID-19 vaccine candidate at temperatures commonly found in readily available pharmaceutical freezers and refrigerators,” said Juan Andres, Chief Technical Operations and Quality Officer at Moderna. “We are pleased to submit these extended stability conditions for mRNA-1273 to regulators for approval. The ability to store our vaccine for up to 6 months at -20° C including up to 30 days at normal refrigerator conditions after thawing is an important development and would enable simpler distribution and more flexibility to facilitate wider-scale vaccination in the United States and other parts of the world.”
According to the FT version of the story, the Phase 3 trial had 30,000 participants.Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:35 pmI'm sceptical as to how you could determine efficacy to 1 part in 200 with such a small sample size.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:30 pmhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rials-showAn interim analysis released on Monday, and based on 95 patients with confirmed Covid infections, found the candidate vaccine has an efficacy of 94.5%. The company said it now plans to apply to the US regulator, the Food and Drug Administration, for emergency-use authorisation in the coming weeks. In the analysis, 90 of the patients received the placebo with the remaining five the vaccine.
Out of 30,000 participants in the clinical trials, 95 had been identified with confirmed cases of Covid-19, the company said. Among those infected, only five people had received the two-dose vaccine, known as mRNA-1273, while 90 had received a placebo.
That makes sense.MartinDurkin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:43 pmAccording to the FT version of the story, the Phase 3 trial had 30,000 participants.Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:35 pmI'm sceptical as to how you could determine efficacy to 1 part in 200 with such a small sample size.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:30 pmhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rials-show
Doing the analysis at ~100 cases gives you about 1% precision (assuming the vaccine generally works).MartinDurkin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:43 pmAccording to the FT version of the story, the Phase 3 trial had 30,000 participants.Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:35 pmI'm sceptical as to how you could determine efficacy to 1 part in 200 with such a small sample size.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:30 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rials-show
https://www.ft.com/content/9d7a2e24-aea ... 9dc80ed5a1Out of 30,000 participants in the clinical trials, 95 had been identified with confirmed cases of Covid-19, the company said. Among those infected, only five people had received the two-dose vaccine, known as mRNA-1273, while 90 had received a placebo.
Yes, I see - about 0.3% of the participants became infected in the study, and the 90:5 ratio, represents ~5.5% the overall infection rate amongst the vaccinated group. One more or less in the non-placebo group would have moved the ratio about 1% either way.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:53 pmDoing the analysis at ~100 cases gives you about 1% precision (assuming the vaccine generally works).
You need a lot of participants if you need to wait for them to "naturally" catch covid rather than challenging them - the more participants you have the sooner you will have a statistically useful number of infections.
I go through phases when I'm watching stuff on TV where I barely bat an eyelid and other times when I'm like HOW ARE YOU STANDING SO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER?? Remind me what it's like to suffer someone's bad breath, or be worried about your own?Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:12 pmI'm cautiously optimistic about this, which by 2020 standards probably means I'm about to have my heart broken.
I literally cannot wait to go back to huffing strangers' fomites all day, and will do the second we've been jabbed. f.ck this sh.t.
Even with a vaccine it's not going to be over any time soon. You might not be able to go back to normal after you've been jabbed, because the vaccine won't work for all so you'll have to wait till enough people have had it before you can start licking doorknobs again.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:12 pmI'm cautiously optimistic about this, which by 2020 standards probably means I'm about to have my heart broken.
I literally cannot wait to go back to huffing strangers' fomites all day, and will do the second we've been jabbed. f.ck this sh.t.
hahahaha omg, sorry disco but that has made me crack right up. The quintessential 2020 sentiment.discovolante wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:24 pmAnd god, I even got jealous watching the episode of Peep Show where Jeremy ends up eating someone's dead dog out of a bin bag because at least they got to randomly meet some people in a pub and see where the night took them. To disaster, in their case, but that's not the point.
Yeah for sure, that's why I put 'we' - I'm not that worried about the risks to my own health (I've taken far bigger ones in the name of having a good time), but I really don't want to endanger other people. I'd like to be able to hug my mum without worrying I've just killed her, for instance.monkey wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:51 pmEven with a vaccine it's not going to be over any time soon. You might not be able to go back to normal after you've been jabbed, because the vaccine won't work for all so you'll have to wait till enough people have had it before you can start licking doorknobs again.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:12 pmI'm cautiously optimistic about this, which by 2020 standards probably means I'm about to have my heart broken.
I literally cannot wait to go back to huffing strangers' fomites all day, and will do the second we've been jabbed. f.ck this sh.t.
But if you're young, you'll probably be in the back of the queue, so maybe!
There is an XKCD for that. (Spoilered for off-topicness.)Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:53 pmhahahaha omg, sorry disco but that has made me crack right up. The quintessential 2020 sentiment.discovolante wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:24 pmAnd god, I even got jealous watching the episode of Peep Show where Jeremy ends up eating someone's dead dog out of a bin bag because at least they got to randomly meet some people in a pub and see where the night took them. To disaster, in their case, but that's not the point.
I definitely remember a time when I could actually relax while out of the house. I think it was February. And yes, watching TV characters stand close to each other in bars already seems as anachronistic as watching them light up a fag in a restaurant.
Hahaha no need to apologise, it was meant to be a bit funnyBird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:53 pmhahahaha omg, sorry disco but that has made me crack right up. The quintessential 2020 sentiment.discovolante wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:24 pmAnd god, I even got jealous watching the episode of Peep Show where Jeremy ends up eating someone's dead dog out of a bin bag because at least they got to randomly meet some people in a pub and see where the night took them. To disaster, in their case, but that's not the point.
I definitely remember a time when I could actually relax while out of the house. I think it was February. And yes, watching TV characters stand close to each other in bars already seems as anachronistic as watching them light up a fag in a restaurant.
Sorry, read that as "I". Stupid incorrect head words.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:58 pmYeah for sure, that's why I put 'we' - I'm not that worried about the risks to my own health (I've taken far bigger ones in the name of having a good time), but I really don't want to endanger other people. I'd like to be able to hug my mum without worrying I've just killed her, for instance.
There's a global aspect and a local aspect. In a rational world, it might be that the Pfizer vaccine goes to rich countries who can handle the cold chain, while Moderna's is prioritised for poorer countries. On a local scale, we might give Vaccine A, which reduces symptoms but not infection, to older people, and prioritise Vaccine B, which is good at controlling infection, for younger people.discovolante wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:24 pmAnyway to go a bit more back on topic, if we end up with a number of viable vaccines (say 2 or 3, I don't really know), that are effective in different ways e.g. reducing symptoms, stopping spread etc - how could that work in practice? If we could technically distribute both, would that need further safety tests?
Hm that makes sense, thanks. Almost a bit too logical really.Sciolus wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:47 pmThere's a global aspect and a local aspect. In a rational world, it might be that the Pfizer vaccine goes to rich countries who can handle the cold chain, while Moderna's is prioritised for poorer countries. On a local scale, we might give Vaccine A, which reduces symptoms but not infection, to older people, and prioritise Vaccine B, which is good at controlling infection, for younger people.discovolante wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:24 pmAnyway to go a bit more back on topic, if we end up with a number of viable vaccines (say 2 or 3, I don't really know), that are effective in different ways e.g. reducing symptoms, stopping spread etc - how could that work in practice? If we could technically distribute both, would that need further safety tests?
That's in the medium term. In the short term (next 6 months say), jabs will go to the countries with the deepest pockets and the most vulnerable people. In the longer term (>2 years say) when the fires are largely out and it's just mopping up, we should have enough time and data to manage things more efficiently.
It's not unprecedented to have a choice of vaccines: see HPV (Gardasil and the other one) for instance.