Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:29 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:59 pm
Just pondering about this in case anyone has any comments to make. My friend was in the Oxford trial, she is not yet unblinded but thinks if she got the vaccine she would have had the full-full dose. So now whatever happens it sounds like she wouldnt be able to benefit from the half-full regime, or the waiting-longer(?) regime. I assume this sort of stuff is covered in ethics approval stuff? Just curious really.

ETA she also works in the health and social care sector so may have been able to have the pfizer vaccine sooner if she hadn't been in the Oxford trial.
It's more likely she had the full--full dose but it's not obvious: the half--full protocol was accidentally given to 1367 trial participants (out of 2741) in the UK and the full--full protocol was given to 2377 participants (out of 4708).

I think the waiting-longer regime has been developed to excuse inevitable delays in the UK's vaccine rollout (which is also why it's stupid to rush this approval through, as if they're even able to keep up with administering the Pfizer one faster than it arrives from Belgium).

She'd still benefit from the Pfizer one.
Apparently the MHRA thinks the increased efficacy in the half--full regime was actually due to a longer time interval between the two doses, so that's why the current approval is for full--full but with waiting-longer.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:28 am

So what is the final efficacy for the Oxford Astra Zeneca, full dose, longer waiting time regime?

I'm still not clear about mixing vaccines, I do know youre not supposed to mix prescription drugs, but there was some talk of mixing Oxford with the Russioan vax, was there not?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:35 am

About 500 doses of vaccine discarded at Aurora clinic in Grafton due to 'human error'
someone removed 50 vials from a refrigerator to access other items and failed to put them back
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:44 am

I've gone back to thinking that this new waiting-longer regime is due to government fuckery (see Rollout thread).
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:28 am
So what is the final efficacy for the Oxford Astra Zeneca, full dose, longer waiting time regime?
Nobody knows, because the unpublished "data" in the paywalled Times article which some moron's tweeted about would (who knows?) be from a hurried trial of the LD/SD protocol.
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:28 am
I'm still not clear about mixing vaccines, I do know youre not supposed to mix prescription drugs, but there was some talk of mixing Oxford with the Russioan vax, was there not?
The Russian vaccine already "mixes" - it uses two different viral vectors for the two doses so that the immune system doesn't immediately kill the second dose.

Haha as if anyone else in the UK is ever going to get a second dose (see Rollout thread).
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:35 am
About 500 doses of vaccine discarded at Aurora clinic in Grafton due to 'human error'
someone removed 50 vials from a refrigerator to access other items and failed to put them back
May have been intentional: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 8385949696
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:31 pm

raven wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:06 pm
Was Bolsonaro always that batshit, or is that a prime example of Long Covid's deleterious effects on cognition?

Honestly, you couldn't make this sh.t up.
Oh he was saying sh.t like that before he was elected.

One of the reasons I've never found Trump that funny is because I read enough Portuguese-language media to get Bolsonaro's stuff which is just a cut above, both in overt fascism and in braindead surreality.

He's like Trump scripted by early Chris Morris.
THINK BIG AND UPEND THE SYSTEM

#ShowYourStripes

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:31 pm

China grants approval of Sinopharm vaccine for general use. Still no detailed data on efficacy, although they are claiming 79%.
"After a series of strict reviews, verification, test and data analysis in accordance with the law and procedures, it is concluded that the known and potential benefits of Sinopharm's new inactivated coronavirus vaccine are bigger than the known and potential risks, and it fully meets the pre-set requirements of conditional marketing standards," he said.

Vice Minister of the National Health Commission Zeng Yixin said approval would allow the government to "extend vaccination to high-risk groups, those susceptible to a severe viral infection... and the elderly".

In July, China approved three different jabs for emergency use in key workers and other people at high risk. More than 4.5 million doses have so far been administered.

Beijing hopes to inoculate tens of millions more people by mid-February, the start of the Chinese New Year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55498197

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:56 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:15 pm

shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:44 am
<snip>
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:28 am
I'm still not clear about mixing vaccines, I do know youre not supposed to mix prescription drugs, but there was some talk of mixing Oxford with the Russioan vax, was there not?
The Russian vaccine already "mixes" - it uses two different viral vectors for the two doses so that the immune system doesn't immediately kill the second dose.

Haha as if anyone else in the UK is ever going to get a second dose (see Rollout thread).
Grauniad
A trial is planned in the UK to assess whether people could be given one dose of the Pfizer jab and one of AstraZeneca’s – in whatever order. Scientists would say that you should run a trial and not do it without the evidence. However, the Green Book, which is the NHS handbook for staff on how to use vaccinations, has already been updated to say that if none of the first vaccine a person was given is available, they could be given a dose of the other. Although “every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine”. It says: “For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule.”

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:36 pm

KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:15 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:44 am
<snip>
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:28 am
I'm still not clear about mixing vaccines, I do know youre not supposed to mix prescription drugs, but there was some talk of mixing Oxford with the Russioan vax, was there not?
The Russian vaccine already "mixes" - it uses two different viral vectors for the two doses so that the immune system doesn't immediately kill the second dose.

Haha as if anyone else in the UK is ever going to get a second dose (see Rollout thread).
Grauniad
A trial is planned in the UK to assess whether people could be given one dose of the Pfizer jab and one of AstraZeneca’s – in whatever order. Scientists would say that you should run a trial and not do it without the evidence. However, the Green Book, which is the NHS handbook for staff on how to use vaccinations, has already been updated to say that if none of the first vaccine a person was given is available, they could be given a dose of the other. Although “every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine”. It says: “For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule.”
How many people will die because of this advice?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:55 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:36 pm
KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:15 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:44 am
<snip>

The Russian vaccine already "mixes" - it uses two different viral vectors for the two doses so that the immune system doesn't immediately kill the second dose.

Haha as if anyone else in the UK is ever going to get a second dose (see Rollout thread).
Grauniad
A trial is planned in the UK to assess whether people could be given one dose of the Pfizer jab and one of AstraZeneca’s – in whatever order. Scientists would say that you should run a trial and not do it without the evidence. However, the Green Book, which is the NHS handbook for staff on how to use vaccinations, has already been updated to say that if none of the first vaccine a person was given is available, they could be given a dose of the other. Although “every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine”. It says: “For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule.”
How many people will die because of this advice?
"Scientists would say that you should run a trial ..." to answer that question. Have you any evidence to support a non-zero answer (which some might think is implied by your question)?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:57 pm

To be honest mixing the vaccines like that will probably work in principle, but the point is that if the health service was just going to make stuff up like this we might as well have skipped the Phase III trials and gone straight to giving it to everyone once Phase II said it was basically not poisonous.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:04 pm

KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:55 pm

"Scientists would say that you should run a trial ..." to answer that question. Have you any evidence to support a non-zero answer (which some might think is implied by your question)?
Well, no. I am just trying to figure this out.
I am not sure about running a trial to figure out if a new procedure will kill people.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:57 pm
To be honest mixing the vaccines like that will probably work in principle, but the point is that if the health service was just going to make stuff up like this we might as well have skipped the Phase III trials and gone straight to giving it to everyone once Phase II said it was basically not poisonous.
These are good points.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:05 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:04 pm
KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:55 pm

"Scientists would say that you should run a trial ..." to answer that question. Have you any evidence to support a non-zero answer (which some might think is implied by your question)?
Well, no. I am just trying to figure this out.
I am not sure about running a trial to figure out if a new procedure will kill people.
And the alternative ....?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:22 pm

KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:05 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:04 pm
KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:55 pm

"Scientists would say that you should run a trial ..." to answer that question. Have you any evidence to support a non-zero answer (which some might think is implied by your question)?
Well, no. I am just trying to figure this out.
I am not sure about running a trial to figure out if a new procedure will kill people.
And the alternative ....?
Just kill the people. Then you know.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:13 am

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:22 pm
KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:05 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:04 pm


Well, no. I am just trying to figure this out.
I am not sure about running a trial to figure out if a new procedure will kill people.
And the alternative ....?
Just kill the people. Then you know.
Blocked

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by KAJ » Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:57 pm

KAJ wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:15 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:44 am
<snip>
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:28 am
I'm still not clear about mixing vaccines, I do know youre not supposed to mix prescription drugs, but there was some talk of mixing Oxford with the Russioan vax, was there not?
The Russian vaccine already "mixes" - it uses two different viral vectors for the two doses so that the immune system doesn't immediately kill the second dose.

Haha as if anyone else in the UK is ever going to get a second dose (see Rollout thread).
Grauniad
A trial is planned in the UK to assess whether people could be given one dose of the Pfizer jab and one of AstraZeneca’s – in whatever order. Scientists would say that you should run a trial and not do it without the evidence. However, the Green Book, which is the NHS handbook for staff on how to use vaccinations, has already been updated to say that if none of the first vaccine a person was given is available, they could be given a dose of the other. Although “every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine”. It says: “For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule.”
Sky News (more at link)
COVID-19: 'Mixing coronavirus vaccines is not recommended,' health agency warns
Guidance to medics says the second jab can be from a different brand only if the same one is not available.

On New Year's Eve, the UK government issued guidance to NHS medics saying that if a person who has received their first coronavirus jab goes back for their second but the same type is not available, or the first vaccine type is unknown, then it is "reasonable" to offer a dose of another vaccine.

"This option is preferred if the individual is likely to be at immediate high risk or is considered unlikely to attend again," the guidance adds.

After questions were raised about the risks, Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisations at PHE, told Sky News that mixing is not recommended and should only happen on "rare occasions".

"We do not recommend mixing the COVID-19 vaccines - if your first dose is the Pfizer vaccine you should not be given the AstraZeneca vaccine for your second dose and vice versa," she said.

"There may be extremely rare occasions where the same vaccine is not available, or where it is not known what vaccine the patient received.

"Every effort should be made to give them the same vaccine, but where this is not possible it is better to give a second dose of another vaccine than not at all."

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:00 pm

It seems there is much confusion and not much concensus on this matter.
Personally I will wait my turn and take what is offered. I will only get a booster of the same one.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:02 pm

Sinopharm vaccine shows different efficacy from two different regulators.
BEIJING (Reuters) - Different efficacy results for a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine released separately in China and in United Arab Emirates are both real and valid, an executive at China National Biotec Group (CNBG) told state media.

China approved its first COVID-19 vaccine for general public use on Thursday, a shot developed by an affiliate to state-backed Sinopharm, after the developer said the vaccine showed 79.34% efficacy based on an interim analysis of late-stage clinical trials.

That rate is lower than the 86% rate for the same vaccine reported by the United Arab Emirates on Dec. 9.
It has to do with different case definitions in different countries.
Countries have certain differences in their standards and procedures in diagnosing patients, and the final results of COVID-19 case identification were different, Yang Xiaoming, chairman at Sinopharm unit’s CNBG, told Global Times, a tabloid published by the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party.

“Therefore, there were differences between the comprehensive multi-country data we reviewed and the protection rate data previously evaluated by the UAE and Bahrain,” Global Times quoted Yang as saying in a report published on Thursday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SKBN297035

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:12 pm

Short-term efficacy from the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is around 90%, says the JCVI, while 70% is given for AstraZeneca’s.

That's interesting, because efficacy after two (full) doses for AstraZeneca's was only 62%.

They really f.cked up with their Phase II trial if they ended up going with just about the least effective dosing regime for their Phase III.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:57 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:12 pm
Short-term efficacy from the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is around 90%, says the JCVI, while 70% is given for AstraZeneca’s.

That's interesting, because efficacy after two (full) doses for AstraZeneca's was only 62%.

They really f.cked up with their Phase II trial if they ended up going with just about the least effective dosing regime for their Phase III.
I think they have a reasonable vaccine, but they screwed up the trial data. Are they not in the midst of another phase III trial in America right now?
If so, perhaps we will end up with better more comprehensible data in a few months time.
If I had a choice- and I'm sure I won't- I would prefer one of the mRNA vaccines over Oxford.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Brightonian » Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:47 am

shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:05 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:35 am
About 500 doses of vaccine discarded at Aurora clinic in Grafton due to 'human error'
someone removed 50 vials from a refrigerator to access other items and failed to put them back
May have been intentional: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 8385949696
Seems the pharmacist was an anti-vax conspiracy theorist: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/04/us/w ... index.html

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:10 pm

molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:53 pm

Realistically, how long before it could be authorized if everything goes smoothly? Six months? A year?

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