Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

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Millennie Al
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Millennie Al » Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:47 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:43 pm
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status ... 0071860230

In the over 65s there was one infection in the treatment group and one infection in the control group. Which makes the vaccine look ineffective compared to doing nothing.

Looks more like the control group got lucky.
One case in each arm is beyond lacking in statistical power and reaches the territory of completely useless. If, by chance, there had been one fewer case in the treatment group, it would have made the figure be 100% effective, if by chance there had been one fewer case in the control group, it would have made the figure be infinitely harmful. Anyone who looked at those figures and told politicians or journalists that there was any meaning there at all is either hopelessly bad at statistics or grossly irresponsible.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:09 am

The Novavax one works (says Novavax)
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:09 am
The Novavax one works (says Novavax)
But not so well in South Africa:
In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
Raising the concern that the SA variant is responsible (for reasons why see the new variant thread).

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Grumble
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Grumble » Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:01 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:09 am
The Novavax one works (says Novavax)
But not so well in South Africa:
In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
Raising the concern that the SA variant is responsible (for reasons why see the new variant thread).
Presumably given approval (which I know hasn’t happened yet) it should be possible to make a variation of the vaccine with the different spike protein. Is there any mileage in making a vaccine with several variation of the spike protein in the one dose?
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:38 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:09 am
The Novavax one works (says Novavax)
But not so well in South Africa:
In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
Wow, that's as bad as the Oxford/AstraZeneca one under the official SD/SD dosing regime.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by tom p » Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:22 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:01 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 am
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:09 am
The Novavax one works (says Novavax)
But not so well in South Africa:
In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
Raising the concern that the SA variant is responsible (for reasons why see the new variant thread).
Presumably given approval (which I know hasn’t happened yet) it should be possible to make a variation of the vaccine with the different spike protein. Is there any mileage in making a vaccine with several variation of the spike protein in the one dose?
yes, it would be possible, and yes there is mileage in so doing. Moderna are already doing so

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:12 pm

Janssen, Johnson, and Johnson works too

Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
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Grumble
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Grumble » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:27 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:12 pm
Janssen, Johnson, and Johnson works too

Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
I suspect a lot of the variation internationally is to do with variants. We’re obviously aware of the variants that crop up in the U.K. and other countries with a reasonable ability to sequence and analyse them, but how many other variants are out there that may get round the vaccines?
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:30 pm

The Janssen/Johnson&Johnson one is called Ad26.COV2.S and some interim results are at https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:45 pm

Everyone now seems to have a story the text of which quotes Germany's heath minister:
Jens Spahn said it wasn’t clear whether the decision by the European Medicines Agency would explicitly recommend against using the vaccine in people 65 and over, or whether it would merely note the lack of data for older people, meaning “no restrictions but caution in certain areas.” Germany will adjust its own guidance once it sees the EMA's decision.
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snoozeofreason
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by snoozeofreason » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:55 pm

In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:16 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:27 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:12 pm
Janssen, Johnson, and Johnson works too

Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
I suspect a lot of the variation internationally is to do with variants. We’re obviously aware of the variants that crop up in the U.K. and other countries with a reasonable ability to sequence and analyse them, but how many other variants are out there that may get round the vaccines?
There might be an effect of variants, but it's also important not to overestimate the precision of statistical methods. Natural systems, like humans and diseases, are inherently vary variable, and covid infections are a fairly rare event, so estimating infection frequencies in trials will always come with broad confidence intervals.

I'd be surprised if the confidence intervals of the 72% and 66% estimates don't have considerable overlap, in which case there's no statistical support for the hypothesis that there's any difference in efficacy between the US and rest of the world. But AFAICT those numbers are from a company statement, rather than a published trial?
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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:20 pm

Yes it's just a company statement reported in a newspaper; searching for Ad26.COV2.S I don't find anything published more recently than this:
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:30 pm
The Janssen/Johnson&Johnson one is called Ad26.COV2.S and some interim results are at https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201
or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20199604v1

... both of which only report Phase I/IIa.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:32 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:45 pm
Everyone now seems to have a story the text of which quotes Germany's heath minister:
Jens Spahn said it wasn’t clear whether the decision by the European Medicines Agency would explicitly recommend against using the vaccine in people 65 and over, or whether it would merely note the lack of data for older people, meaning “no restrictions but caution in certain areas.” Germany will adjust its own guidance once it sees the EMA's decision.
It got full approval: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -regulator
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:39 pm

AstraZeneca is no longer exploring the half-dose regime, says they are "very confident" with the dosing regimen they have.
He says hopefully when the data is published that will become apparent.
Well, yes. Hopefully.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:02 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:39 pm
AstraZeneca is no longer exploring the half-dose regime, says they are "very confident" with the dosing regimen they have.
He says hopefully when the data is published that will become apparent.
Well, yes. Hopefully.
Hopefully they will publish the data.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:52 pm

Roberto Burioni* put this on facebook:
144108643_3603147186577105_782134348902001132_n.png
144108643_3603147186577105_782134348902001132_n.png (31.38 KiB) Viewed 318 times
* - https://www.medicalfacts.it/en/
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:47 pm

In Italy the AstraZeneca vaccine is, for now at least, only approved for ages 18—55.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:59 pm

some efficacy data from I don't know where
FB_IMG_1612130263994.jpg
FB_IMG_1612130263994.jpg (60.4 KiB) Viewed 226 times
(SA efficacy for the Novavax may include HIV-positive subjects.)
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:46 pm

Sputnik V vaccine has 91.6% efficacy against symptomatic Covid

Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia
Between Sept 7 and Nov 24, 2020, 21 977 adults were randomly assigned to the vaccine group (n=16 501) or the placebo group (n=5476). 19 866 received two doses of vaccine or placebo and were included in the primary outcome analysis. From 21 days after the first dose of vaccine (the day of dose 2), 16 (0·1%) of 14 964 participants in the vaccine group and 62 (1·3%) of 4902 in the placebo group were confirmed to have COVID-19; vaccine efficacy was 91·6% (95% CI 85·6–95·2). Most reported adverse events were grade 1 (7485 [94·0%] of 7966 total events). 45 (0·3%) of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group and 23 (0·4%) of 5435 participants in the placebo group had serious adverse events; none were considered associated with vaccination, with confirmation from the independent data monitoring committee. Four deaths were reported during the study (three [<0·1%] of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group and one [<0·1%] of 5435 participants in the placebo group), none of which were considered related to the vaccine.
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:49 pm

Efficacy data table from their paper:
SputnikV_table2.png
SputnikV_table2.png (162.89 KiB) Viewed 172 times
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:36 pm

Oxford University analysis of Oxford-AZ:

(1) 1st dose gives "sustained protection" of 76% during the 3-month interval until the second dose. Does not fall under the UK approach during the 21 day to 12 week extension.

"Data supports the 4-12 week prime-boost dosing interval recommended by many global regulators".

(2) Vaccine stops transmission. "Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated".

Pretty great news x2.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by headshot » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:42 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:36 pm
Oxford University analysis of Oxford-AZ:

(1) 1st dose gives "sustained protection" of 76% during the 3-month interval until the second dose. Does not fall under the UK approach during the 21 day to 12 week extension.

"Data supports the 4-12 week prime-boost dosing interval recommended by many global regulators".

(2) Vaccine stops transmission. "Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated".

Pretty great news x2.
Would it be too much to post a link to that?

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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:43 pm

I need to celebrate this by being extra nice.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-ox ... h-interval
Last edited by lpm on Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by headshot » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:45 pm

See, the thing is, there's quite a lot of news nowadays. It would help to post a link so I don't have a trawls through news sites to find the paragraphs you've selectively posted from wherever the f.ck it is you found it.

Just post links FFS.

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