Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Martin_B
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Martin_B » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:24 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:00 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:42 am
I'm not sure how many vials of vaccine a factory can realistically churn out per day.
Well, according to
https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/ast ... ccine.html
AstraZeneca has deals to produce 700 million doses by the end of the year (300m itself, 400m by Serum Institute of India).
So <10% of the world's population. Although that article does say that they are working to secure manufacturing capacity for 2 billion doses (doesn't give a time frame for that, though - 2 billion per year would still take >3.5 years to make enough doses for everyone.) The article does say that it's a single dose vaccination, though, to answer lpm's query above.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:38 am

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia had become the first country in the world to grant regulatory approval to a COVID-19 vaccine after less than two months of human testing, a move hailed by Moscow as evidence of its scientific prowess.

[...]

The development paves the way for the mass inoculation of the Russian population, even as the final stage of clinical trials to test safety and efficacy continue.

The speed at which Russia is moving to roll out its vaccine highlights its determination to win the global race for an effective product, but has stirred concerns that it may be putting national prestige before sound science and safety.

Speaking at a government meeting on state television, Putin said the vaccine, developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute, was safe and that it had even been administered to one of his daughters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN25712U


If its safe and effective there will be enormous pressure to mass produce the Russian vaccine around the world. If its not safe then it'll be a bonanza for the antivaxxers.

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jimbob
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:51 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:38 am
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia had become the first country in the world to grant regulatory approval to a COVID-19 vaccine after less than two months of human testing, a move hailed by Moscow as evidence of its scientific prowess.

[...]

The development paves the way for the mass inoculation of the Russian population, even as the final stage of clinical trials to test safety and efficacy continue.

The speed at which Russia is moving to roll out its vaccine highlights its determination to win the global race for an effective product, but has stirred concerns that it may be putting national prestige before sound science and safety.

Speaking at a government meeting on state television, Putin said the vaccine, developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute, was safe and that it had even been administered to one of his daughters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN25712U


If its safe and effective there will be enormous pressure to mass produce the Russian vaccine around the world. If its not safe then it'll be a bonanza for the antivaxxers.
It looks like a calculated gamble by Putin.

If it works, he gets the credit and it plays into his narrative that you need autocracy.

If it fails, he can blame the scientists and stoke antivaxers in the West.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:03 am

It's got, what, 1% chance of being real? 5%?

I assume they'll just say it works and then fake the case/death statistics. When your vaccinated Grandma dies of Covid in a Moscow hospital you'll be informed she died of pneumonia or something.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:45 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:03 am
It's got, what, 1% chance of being real? 5%?

I assume they'll just say it works and then fake the case/death statistics. When your vaccinated Grandma dies of Covid in a Moscow hospital you'll be informed she died of pneumonia or something.
I doubt that's the strategy. If there is mass infection in Russia after everyone has been vaccinated then it'll be obvious. Granny won't die in a Moscow hospital because there won't be any free beds.

They've skipped phase 3 trials and so gambled that when used on the whole population the vaccine won't cause serious side effects in a lot of people, and will provide lasting immunity.

Perhaps we should instead thank the Russian population for being volunteered to be in the largest ever trial of a new vaccine.

But as mentioned, if in a few months Russian hospitals are back to normal capacity and grannies are playing bingo without adverse effects then there will be huge pressure in the rest of the world to use the Russian vaccine. Look out for the articles on why over-regulation has harmed the West.

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:46 am

"The Russians have a vaccine but our government doesn't want us to have it" would certainly be an interesting new angle for the antivax nuts.
molto tricky

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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:16 pm

Speculative, but has Trump been relying upon a speedy Russian vaccine?

If by early November Trump cam claim to have done a deal which saved the US population and economy with a vaccine made in Russia then Trumps re-election prospects will look better.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:42 pm

As far as I can tell this Russian vaccine is one hell of a long shot (excuse the slight pun). If it works it's a massive coup for Putin and, as you say woodchopper, potentially Trump who can do a deal to buy loads and it might help his reelection. But if it doesn't work then it'll backfire supremely and could seriously poison the well to further vaccine development.

Also - FFS, Putin reckons his daughter's been vaccinated...

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:18 pm

It might be considered worth accepting a slightly higher risk than usual given the urgency of the situation in some countries.
molto tricky

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jimbob
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:28 pm

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... an-vaccine

Many will have heard Russia’s announcement that they have approved a coronavirus vaccine. I’ve already had several people ask me what I think of it, so let me be clear: I think it’s a ridiculous publicity stunt. If it’s supposed to make Russia look like some sort of biotechnology powerhouse, then as far as I’m concerned it does the opposite. It makes them look desperate, like the nation-state equivalent of a bunch of penny-stock promoters. The new airliner design prototype just got off the ground – time to sell tickets and load it full of passengers, right?

Why so negative? Look at what’s being claimed – the first coronavirus vaccine to receive regulatory approval. But “regulatory approval” is not some international gold standard, and these sorts of decisions show you why. Let’s be honest: there is no way that you can responsibly “approve” a vaccine after it’s only been into human trials for what numerous reports say is less than two months. That’s about enough time to do the first steps, a Phase I trial that gives you some idea of immune response across more than one dose. It is simply not enough time to do a reasonable efficacy workup as well, and absolutely not enough time to get any sort of reading on safety. Here’s a good article going into those timelines in more depth.

Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:35 am

Some more here on the Russian vaccine. A scientist behind it suggests that there will be more testing and it won’t be ready for production until the end of the year.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/07/23 ... -s-way-out

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by headshot » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:17 am

Potential preventative anti-viral inhaler:

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/08/41824 ... nabcovid19

Though:
The research team is in active discussions with commercial partners to ramp up manufacturing and clinical testing of AeroNabs. If these tests are successful, the scientists aim to make AeroNabs widely available as an inexpensive, over-the-counter medication to prevent and treat COVID-19.

noggins
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by noggins » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:45 am

Could they make it more compact, tubular and add an addictive chemical, so we we want to use it?

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:06 pm

noggins wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:45 am
Could they make it more compact, tubular and add an addictive chemical, so we we want to use it?
They've just started marketing a caffeine nasal spray (called, I sh.t you not, Turbo Snort) in the USA. So there might be some possibilities there.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:32 pm

Two articles on potential supply chain issues in producing billions of doses of Covid vaccine.

Without Vials and Needles, a Virus Vaccine Is Just a Formula
Making sure the world will have enough vials, hypodermics, and adjuvants.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020 ... f=htOHjx5Y

Vaccines Use Bizarre Stuff. We Need a Supply Chain Now.
Even before a Covid-19 shot is approved, rare ingredients must be procured and manufacturing processes tested.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... f=vvlqweqX

Millennie Al
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:01 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:32 pm
Without Vials and Needles, a Virus Vaccine Is Just a Formula
Making sure the world will have enough vials, hypodermics, and adjuvants.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020 ... f=htOHjx5Y
We can save a considerable number of vials and needles by scrapping flu vaccination this year. The evidence from the southern hemisphere suggests that the anti-Covid-19 measures are very effective at suppressing flu.

Of course, that's assuming that the Covid-19 vaccine arrives after flu season.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Martin_B
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Martin_B » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:59 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:01 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:32 pm
Without Vials and Needles, a Virus Vaccine Is Just a Formula
Making sure the world will have enough vials, hypodermics, and adjuvants.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020 ... f=htOHjx5Y
We can save a considerable number of vials and needles by scrapping flu vaccination this year. The evidence from the southern hemisphere suggests that the anti-Covid-19 measures are very effective at suppressing flu.

Of course, that's assuming that the Covid-19 vaccine arrives after flu season.
There was reportedly a very high take-up of the flu vaccine this year, at least in Australia, so you probably can't claim that all of the suppression of flu was due to anti-Covid-19 measures. NZ might give you a better analogue though, as they were in a much stricter lockdown during the majority of the period where people generally get flu jabs.
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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:55 am

It's essential to try for a zero flu year. Maximise vaccines and it looks achievable.

Would be a hell of a risk to divert this year's flu vials to next year's Covid vaccine.
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jimbob
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by jimbob » Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:37 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:55 am
It's essential to try for a zero flu year. Maximise vaccines and it looks achievable.

Would be a hell of a risk to divert this year's flu vials to next year's Covid vaccine.
Yup - you don't want both at high levels in the population at the same time.

Or even what happens if infected with both
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:14 pm

Certainly potential super spreaders like carers and NHS staff should still have the flu vaccine, even if it's less necessary in the wider community.

Can't we just make more of them, instead of some other less essential sh.t? Bet you anything there are planned economies around the world gearing up to do just that.
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lpm
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by lpm » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:11 pm

Of course we can make more glass vials. But it's not a trivial problem when talking about making 20 billion glass vials. As discussed earlier in the thread, and on the recent link, it's going to take a long time.

It's pretty amazing that glass - a 6,000 year old invention - remains the best substance for storing vaccines.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Aug 21, 2020 6:00 am

Looks like Russia will do phase 3 trials after all: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/health/r ... index.html

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shpalman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:11 pm
Of course we can make more glass vials. But it's not a trivial problem when talking about making 20 billion glass vials. As discussed earlier in the thread, and on the recent link, it's going to take a long time.

It's pretty amazing that glass - a 6,000 year old invention - remains the best substance for storing vaccines.
Might have a syringe shortage though https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ne-experts
molto tricky

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:38 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:14 pm
Can't we just make more of them, instead of some other less essential sh.t? Bet you anything there are planned economies around the world gearing up to do just that.
If you think that planned economies are likely to be helpful, I suggest you contemplate the contrast between the planned economy of the NHS and its ability to acquire PPE in the face of a sudden unexpected demand with the rampantly capitalist Tesco and its ability to acquite loo roll in similar circumstances.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:59 pm

SARS-CoV-2 specific memory B cells frequency in recovered patient remains stable while antibodies decay over time
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20179796v1

Things working as they should.

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