Scrutable

It looks like Skeptics in the Pub attendees are about to experience their other favourite psychological effect, cognitive dissonance, as new analyses show that the Kruger-Dunning* effect is mostly not there. (The canonical empirical article from cognitive dissonance research is under a bit of a cloud, too.)

*Popularly called the Dunning-Kruger effect, but the paper was by Kruger and Dunning, in that order. Apparently they don't speak to each other much any more, as Kruger feels that Dunning has been rather over-egging his claims all these years, eg by swapping the names around.

I know I know nowt about statistics. And I have read before that the Dunning Kruger effect may just be regression toward the mean. But does that mean that the effect is not there but merely the appearance of an effect?

When does the appearance of an effect become an effect?

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:29 am

It looks like Skeptics in the Pub attendees are about to experience their other favourite psychological effect, cognitive dissonance, as new analyses show that the Kruger-Dunning* effect is mostly not there. (The canonical empirical article from cognitive dissonance research is under a bit of a cloud, too.)

*Popularly called the Dunning-Kruger effect, but the paper was by Kruger and Dunning, in that order. Apparently they don't speak to each other much any more, as Kruger feels that Dunning has been rather over-egging his claims all these years, eg by swapping the names around.

I've only read the abstract, so maybe this is dealt with in the paper.

I normally hear the KD effect cited for very specific skills - for instance, somebody tone deaf might not realise that they're singing out of tune. The problem with using "intelligence" as the skill they're assessing, rather than performance in a particular task, is that it's not easy to participate in society without quite quickly (during childhood) getting an externally-derived sense of your own relative intelligence, which is probably accurate enough for people to know where they are at the study's resolution of four quartiles.

If they're claiming it's a statistical artefact, surely the thing to do is simulate random data, apply the analytical methods being called into question, then demonstrate the spurious appearance of said effect.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:05 pm

I normally hear the KD effect cited for very specific skills - for instance, somebody tone deaf might not realise that they're singing out of tune. The problem with using "intelligence" as the skill they're assessing, rather than performance in a particular task, is that it's not easy to participate in society without quite quickly (during childhood) getting an externally-derived sense of your own relative intelligence, which is probably accurate enough for people to know where they are at the study's resolution of four quartiles.

Errr...with the way promotions work in some organisations it would be quite easy to get an externally-derived overinflated sense of your own relative intelligence!!!

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:17 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:05 pm

I normally hear the KD effect cited for very specific skills - for instance, somebody tone deaf might not realise that they're singing out of tune. The problem with using "intelligence" as the skill they're assessing, rather than performance in a particular task, is that it's not easy to participate in society without quite quickly (during childhood) getting an externally-derived sense of your own relative intelligence, which is probably accurate enough for people to know where they are at the study's resolution of four quartiles.

Errr...with the way promotions work in some organisations it would be quite easy to get an externally-derived overinflated sense of your own relative intelligence!!!

See the current Cabinet for examples.

I knew it was all along.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:49 pm

I knew it was all along.

The appearance of this new article means that the KD effect is now poised perfectly for meta-jokes down to any depth.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:35 am

Grumble wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:49 pm

I knew it was all along.

The appearance of this new article means that the KD effect is now poised perfectly for meta-jokes down to any depth.

It's Kruger-Dunnings all the way down.