B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
UK cases of Omicron soar by 50%
And since that individual isn't even in the UK anymore, UK cases of Omicron drop by 33%!
Currently at about 0.01% of the Delta cases which you obviously didn't care about dealing with.
And since that individual isn't even in the UK anymore, UK cases of Omicron drop by 33%!
Currently at about 0.01% of the Delta cases which you obviously didn't care about dealing with.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Hospital admissions are the metric that matters.
You can see the South Africa data here: https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-ind ... ov-report/
Hospital admissions in Gauteng province have gone from 135 in week 45 to 418 in week 47 (22-28 November).
Seems to be consistent with Omicron causing severe illness. Though of course we don’t yet know the ratio.
You can see the South Africa data here: https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-ind ... ov-report/
Hospital admissions in Gauteng province have gone from 135 in week 45 to 418 in week 47 (22-28 November).
Seems to be consistent with Omicron causing severe illness. Though of course we don’t yet know the ratio.
- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
The second page of that shows weekly deaths and they don't seem to be going up yet.
This seems to be the best place to see daily cases.
They've gone from several hundred a day to a few thousand per day in Gauteng Province (est. population 15.8 million). Don't know why there were 18.6k on the 22nd of November.
This seems to be the best place to see daily cases.
They've gone from several hundred a day to a few thousand per day in Gauteng Province (est. population 15.8 million). Don't know why there were 18.6k on the 22nd of November.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Whereas the Italian person who has been found to have brought Omicron from Mozambique is vaccinated and happy about it, since he's completely asymptomatic (and only got tested since he was about to get on another flight).shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 amThe BBC report that
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't."The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
It's also contradicted by the figures Woodchopper found indicating increasing numbers in the hospital in Guateng.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 amThe BBC report that
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't."The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
On deaths, there will be a lag as always. Perhaps a week or two.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:14 pmThe second page of that shows weekly deaths and they don't seem to be going up yet.
This seems to be the best place to see daily cases.
They've gone from several hundred a day to a few thousand per day in Gauteng Province (est. population 15.8 million). Don't know why there were 18.6k on the 22nd of November.
Maybe the 22 November was a dump of some outstanding data.
- Woodchopper
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 37346?s=21
For UK real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:
• several hundred cases
• +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)
• +4 weeks for deaths
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
From the latest WHO update:shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:07 pmIt's also contradicted by the figures Woodchopper found indicating increasing numbers in the hospital in Guateng.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 amThe BBC report that
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't."The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-202 ... on-omicron
Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron. There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks. All variants of COVID-19, including the Delta variant that is dominant worldwide, can cause severe disease or death, in particular for the most vulnerable people, and thus prevention is always key.
- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
the soundings we’re getting from South Africa seem to be saying that it doesn’t look severe, and the people who are going to hospital are the unvaccinated, rather than the vaccinated
The South African doctor I previously quoted flagged these cases because they were presenting unusually, not because they were particularly bad, because with such a low degree of vaccination coverage there I suppose extreme tiredness is a mild symptom on their scale.
The South African doctor I previously quoted flagged these cases because they were presenting unusually, not because they were particularly bad, because with such a low degree of vaccination coverage there I suppose extreme tiredness is a mild symptom on their scale.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Suggestion here that the earlier cases were among young people.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:09 pmthe soundings we’re getting from South Africa seem to be saying that it doesn’t look severe, and the people who are going to hospital are the unvaccinated, rather than the vaccinated
The South African doctor I previously quoted flagged these cases because they were presenting unusually, not because they were particularly bad, because with such a low degree of vaccination coverage there I suppose extreme tiredness is a mild symptom on their scale.
https://twitter.com/rjlessells/status/1 ... 54242?s=21
Before we assume Omicron is less virulent we need to know what it does to a 70 year old with emphysema.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
But it's also consistent with Omicron being much milder but more transmissible. It's possible that people were admitted in the mistaken belief that they were more sick than they really were because if they showed the same symptoms with other variants then they would have been that sick. Of course, there's no evidence for that yet, but it's a theoretical possibility.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:15 pmHospital admissions in Gauteng province have gone from 135 in week 45 to 418 in week 47 (22-28 November).
Seems to be consistent with Omicron causing severe illness. Though of course we don’t yet know the ratio.
Just as it's a theoretical possibility that Omicron will be sufficiently harmless that we need not worry about catching it, yet sufficiently infectious that it will drive out the other variants. Rather too much to hope for currently, I'm afraid.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
https://www.ft.com/content/82d66181-050 ... 303d1ae44fA third confirmed case has been identified in the UK, following confirmation of two other cases on Saturday — one in Essex, the other in Nottingham. Dozens more are being treated as suspected cases, people familiar with the matter have told the Financial Times.
I assume that the dozens of suspected UK cases may be S gene dropouts.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
My home town is famous for all the wrong reasons again, luckily I don't think I've mixed with anyone that eats at KFC or goes to Church
- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Portugal has detected 13 cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant - all related to players and staff members of this bunch of morons.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Sounds like these 6 infections were domestic - not travellers from SA.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 amSix cases in Scotland.
https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-variant/
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Belenenses player had returned to Portugal after international duty in South Africashpalman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:55 amPortugal has detected 13 cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant - all related to players and staff members of this bunch of morons.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- Brightonian
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Yep. "on some of the cases we are aware that there is no travel history involved."lpm wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:17 amSounds like these 6 infections were domestic - not travellers from SA.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 amSix cases in Scotland.
https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-variant/
I was not expecting it to travel so far so fast.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Hints that Omi moves fast? Beats Delta by getting the job of transmitting done early? UK test & trace has always been too slow, so could be even more off the pace.
ETA: am I only the one who's giving our new little friend a shortened nickname? I get the feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of each other and Omicron seems so formal.
ETA: am I only the one who's giving our new little friend a shortened nickname? I get the feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of each other and Omicron seems so formal.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Wait, wait, I've just learned something from Facebook, omicron is fake, everyone stand down.
The New World Order gave us a clue right in it's name: omicron is an anagram of moronic.
The New World Order gave us a clue right in it's name: omicron is an anagram of moronic.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Is one of the symptom's of Omicron errant apostrophe's?
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 0113839113
Um, I think there's plenty of evidence that it's outcompeting Delta in several locations.
I'll grant the second point.
Heneghan is still off the deep end.Carl Heneghan
Update on Omicron: ‘It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible; It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease’
https://t.co/I3zE4cetof?amp=1
Um, I think there's plenty of evidence that it's outcompeting Delta in several locations.
I'll grant the second point.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- bob sterman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Oh sh*t - if Carl "no signs of a second wave" Heneghan is saying it's nothing to worry about - then we really are in trouble!jimbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:30 pmhttps://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 0113839113
Heneghan is still off the deep end.Carl Heneghan
Update on Omicron: ‘It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible; It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease’
https://t.co/I3zE4cetof?amp=1
Um, I think there's plenty of evidence that it's outcompeting Delta in several locations.
I'll grant the second point.
- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Take it up with the WHO then.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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