Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:57 pm
That's right. I'll let you know when its over.
There will be lots of job openings in health care. I'm sure they could use a bird scientist.(I think thats what you are. Apologies if I got it wrong)Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:48 amThanks. If you could hurry it along I'd be grateful. I've already had two conferences cancelled this year and I need to start finding work after my current contract ends in September.
REACT suggests that most current positive cases are reinfections...
Here's the announcement: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... 109f2cfbdd
Thanks.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:29 amHere's the announcement: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... 109f2cfbdd
new metrics will show first episodes of infection (equivalent to the current case definition) and episodes of reinfection, shown by specimen date only.
It suggests that they will define two new metrics, but that "cases in England by report date will change to the new definition of an episode of infection" and it's the cases reported each day which gives the headline number. i.e. people being infected a second time more than 90 days after their first infection will show up again in the daily case report.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:01 amThanks.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:29 amHere's the announcement: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... 109f2cfbdd
This line seems to suggest that the headline number of new cases (Cases by date reported), that the media focus on, is still not going to show reinfections...
new metrics will show first episodes of infection (equivalent to the current case definition) and episodes of reinfection, shown by specimen date only.
The trend for Wales (where they already count reinfections) vs rest of the UK hints otherwise.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 amREACT suggests that most current positive cases are reinfections...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60132096
So the daily new PCR positive case count is probably currently at least double the headline daily reported figure which excludes reinfections (although some reinfections would be in the current figures if the original infection wasn't confirmed by PCR at the time).
Of course this puts the current hospitalisation data into an even more favourable light.
From Dec 1st to Jan 22nd - England reported 4,745,555 new cases (excluding reinfections) and 72,855 hospitalisations (which can include reinfections). Using these figures gives a crude (incorrect) hospitalisation rate of 1.54%Martin Y wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:11 amThe trend for Wales (where they already count reinfections) vs rest of the UK hints otherwise.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 amREACT suggests that most current positive cases are reinfections...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60132096
So the daily new PCR positive case count is probably currently at least double the headline daily reported figure which excludes reinfections (although some reinfections would be in the current figures if the original infection wasn't confirmed by PCR at the time).
Of course this puts the current hospitalisation data into an even more favourable light.
Just googling the UK covid 19 statistics for the last 3 months, the trend for England looks like there's a post-peak levelling off at about double the pre-peak level but the trend for Wales shows a post-peak level that's about the same as pre-peak. If reinfections were a significantly increasing element in the Wales figures, I'd expect those trends to look rather the other way around.
What, you expect the addition of reinfections to the England data to make the overall case numbers go down?Martin Y wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:11 amThe trend for Wales (where they already count reinfections) vs rest of the UK hints otherwise.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 amREACT suggests that most current positive cases are reinfections...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60132096
So the daily new PCR positive case count is probably currently at least double the headline daily reported figure which excludes reinfections (although some reinfections would be in the current figures if the original infection wasn't confirmed by PCR at the time).
Of course this puts the current hospitalisation data into an even more favourable light.
Just googling the UK covid 19 statistics for the last 3 months, the trend for England looks like there's a post-peak levelling off at about double the pre-peak level but the trend for Wales shows a post-peak level that's about the same as pre-peak. If reinfections were a significantly increasing element in the Wales figures, I'd expect those trends to look rather the other way around.
No. The opposite. I'm noting the trend for England already looks worse than the trend for Wales despite England not counting reinfections. So if the Welsh figures were boosted by an increasing proportion of reinfections, I would have expected that trend to be the other way around, all other things being equal, which they aren't of course. What Bob said about hospitalisation rates is more compelling.
Most of the infection wave in schools before Christmas was delta. Primary schools have provided a lovely unmasked, unvaccinated population for omicron to spread through. And it’s had a ball. Secondaries have been affected but to a lesser extent. Until this week, from what I’m hearing. Friends in different parts of the country saying their cases have shot up over the last 24-48hours. Turns out that getting rid of masks in secondary from last Friday might not have been a brilliant idea.raven wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pmPost-Christmas peak has passed, cases plateau and then everybody relaxes slightly/goes back to work as they've been told so you get a slight rise perhaps? Or people've stopped testing so much because they're not visiting the elderly relatives like they were over Christmas, so we're not picking up so many asymptomatic cases, and the apparent fall/plateau wasn't totally accurate.
Speaking of which,sister who works in a primary school can't believe cases are falling because so many people she knows have it, including quite a few people who are getting it for the second time.
We're supposed to start adding reinfections to the case data soonish, aren't we.Cynically, I suspect they're waiting for things to die down enough that it won't cause a dramatic increase.
ETA: Just looked at the case data for where sister is, and yep, cases are rising in her area, plus the heat map is pretty scary:2022-01-25 Cases heatmap.png.
Yes. When I said case rates looked scary where my sister is, I should've added that of all the many people she knows who've caught it last month and this, most of whom are kids/teachers/parents, none of them have ended up in hospital.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 amREACT suggests that most current positive cases are reinfections...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60132096
So the daily new PCR positive case count is probably currently at least double the headline daily reported figure which excludes reinfections (although some reinfections would be in the current figures if the original infection wasn't confirmed by PCR at the time).
Of course this puts the current hospitalisation data into an even more favourable light.
Cheers, Woodchopper.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:29 amHere's the announcement: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... 109f2cfbdd
Just to add some n=1 to that:OffTheRock wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:33 pm
Most of the infection wave in schools before Christmas was delta. Primary schools have provided a lovely unmasked, unvaccinated population for omicron to spread through. And it’s had a ball. Secondaries have been affected but to a lesser extent. Until this week, from what I’m hearing. Friends in different parts of the country saying their cases have shot up over the last 24-48hours. Turns out that getting rid of masks in secondary from last Friday might not have been a brilliant idea.
With a 90 day threshold, BA.2 reinfections of BA.1 won't be counted, for example - that's small, but many Omicron (either type) reinfections of Delta will also be missed.bob sterman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:22 amWell reinfections are now included on the UK dashboard - and numbers haven't gone up nearly as much as I was expecting.
Only about 830,000 cases of reinfection have been added to the cumulative total number of cases.
Well that answers the WTactualF question I arrived with after clicking my usual UK Covid 19 statistics link and seeing the sky-high spike today.bob sterman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:22 amWell reinfections are now included on the UK dashboard - and numbers haven't gone up nearly as much as I was expecting.
Only about 830,000 cases of reinfection have been added to the cumulative total number of cases.
Deaths — within 28 and 60 days of a positive test — have now been updated to reflect reinfections, which were added to the UK Coronavirus Dashboard yesterday.
Based on the new definition, an additional 1,087 deaths within 28 days of a positive test have been identified.
Fits with what's just happened in my nephew's class: a group of kids who got Covid mid-December have just got it again now, 6 weeks later. They won't get counted as reinfections.jimbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:50 amWith a 90 day threshold, BA.2 reinfections of BA.1 won't be counted, for example - that's small, but many Omicron (either type) reinfections of Delta will also be missed.bob sterman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:22 amWell reinfections are now included on the UK dashboard - and numbers haven't gone up nearly as much as I was expecting.
Only about 830,000 cases of reinfection have been added to the cumulative total number of cases.