Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:24 pm
Found one in Italy.
If it has indeed been all over the southern third of Africa for many weeks/months and nobody noticed any change in infections or deaths up to now, what exactly is the problem?
Featuring (I believe, unless my memory is doing The Things again) a contribution by mikeh, formerly of this parish. (Hope this is not doxxing.)Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:32 pmGood summary by some experts
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... time-on-t/
I’m meant more that I expect many countries have been seeded rather than anything elsesTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pmIf it has indeed been all over the southern third of Africa for many weeks/months and nobody noticed any change in infections or deaths up to now, what exactly is the problem?
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In this context it is worth noting that both cases and deaths (per capita) are currently considerably lower in South Africa than in the UK.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pmIf it has indeed been all over the southern third of Africa for many weeks/months and nobody noticed any change in infections or deaths up to now, what exactly is the problem?
That makes me wonder, considering they should have all been tested negative before flying, are the tests useless or did they all suddenly develop covid on the plane? Either answer seems to suggest that it's not worth testing.Martin Y wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:03 pmI see the "dozens are likely infected" on those flights from SA held at Schipol has now become "yup, dozens are infected".
About 60-odd from 600, though no info on variants involved as yet.
The UK has the day-2 test on arrival (previously a lateral-flow was fine but now it has to be PCR*) but doesn't ask for a negative test before flying.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 amThat makes me wonder, considering they should have all been tested negative before flying, are the tests useless or did they all suddenly develop covid on the plane? Either answer seems to suggest that it's not worth testing.Martin Y wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:03 pmI see the "dozens are likely infected" on those flights from SA held at Schipol has now become "yup, dozens are infected".
About 60-odd from 600, though no info on variants involved as yet.
Basically this but not considering this.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:43 pmFeaturing (I believe, unless my memory is doing The Things again) a contribution by mikeh, formerly of this parish. (Hope this is not doxxing.)Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:32 pmGood summary by some experts
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... time-on-t/
But not from Italy or Germany, where cases have been detected.Switzerland has widened quarantine requirements to stem the spread of the new Omicron coronavirus variant to travellers arriving from Britain, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Egypt and Malawi, where cases have been detected, its health ministry said.
She doesn't say whether or not he was vaccinated or point out that covid is usually mild in healthy people in that age range.Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told The Andrew Marr Show she first encountered the variant in a man in his early 30s who presented with tiredness and a mild headache, but none of the usual coronavirus symptoms.
She said: “What we are seeing clinically in south Africa, and remember I’m at the epicentre - that’s where I’m practising - it’s extremely mild. For us, that’s mild cases.”
The UK isn't even implementing half the measures it should have had in place since the summer. But the attitude of "don't bother doing anything and see if after two weeks you're f.cked" isn't particularly encouraging.When asked if the UK was “panicking unnecessarily”, she said: “I think you already have it there in your country and you’re not knowing it, and I would say, yes, at this stage I would say definitely.
“Two weeks from now maybe we will say something different.”
And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't."The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has urged people to act on the assumption the riskier new Omnicron Covid variant is circulating in Scotland and follow all the existing face-covering and restrictions because Covid is circulating in Scotland.discovolante wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:26 amYes I'm quite confused. This has f.cked my holiday plans and I'm gutted but if it leads to us getting something of a grip in the longer term then good. But is there any possibility that this might be an indication of a development of the virus to something more transmissible but generally less severe? I appreciate there have been hospitalisations and this is not good for vulnerable people regardless. And vaccine resistance is a problem particularly if that leads to even more cases and a breeding ground for more variants, I guess.
I guess that I may well be completely misunderstanding the situation, quite likely in fact, but it does still feel like we are a bit in the dark and everyone is wildly speculating based on partial info.
I'm glad she is because mask wearing seems to be slipping here. Still better than England overall I think. But to be quite honest i feel a few non-wearers on buses and in shops are perhaps less of an issue than all the mass events and schools. But anyway that's for another thread.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:36 amNicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has urged people to act on the assumption the riskier new Omnicron Covid variant is circulating in Scotland and follow all the existing face-covering and restrictions because Covid is circulating in Scotland.discovolante wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:26 amYes I'm quite confused. This has f.cked my holiday plans and I'm gutted but if it leads to us getting something of a grip in the longer term then good. But is there any possibility that this might be an indication of a development of the virus to something more transmissible but generally less severe? I appreciate there have been hospitalisations and this is not good for vulnerable people regardless. And vaccine resistance is a problem particularly if that leads to even more cases and a breeding ground for more variants, I guess.
I guess that I may well be completely misunderstanding the situation, quite likely in fact, but it does still feel like we are a bit in the dark and everyone is wildly speculating based on partial info.
600 passengers; 61 covid positives; so far 13 have been found to be the Omicron variantshpalman wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:59 amWoodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:01 amhttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pa ... 021-11-26/
Dutch health authorities said that dozens of people who arrived in Amsterdam on two flights from South Africa on Friday are likely infected with COVID-19, and they are conducting further testing to see if people are infected with the recently discovered Omicron coronavirus variant.
Around 600 passengers arrived at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on the two KLM flights on Friday and then faced hours of delays and testing due to concerns over thenew virus variant. On the basis of initial testing, the Dutch health ministry estimated there may be around 85 positive cases among the passengers.
Guardian live blogMany passengers on the two flights that arrived from South Africa to the Netherlands last night did not wear face coverings, New York Times reporter Stephanie Nolen says.
Nolen, who was on one plane, said many passengers did not follow the health guidelines despite a mask mandate by Dutch airline KLM, which operated both flights.
We now now that dozens of those passengers tested positive for Covid, although authorities have yet to confirm the presence of the Omicron variant.
Passengers were stuck on the airport tarmac for about four hours before being sent to be swabbed, tweeted Nolen, who later said she tested negative.
“... still probably 30% of ppl are wearing no mask or only over mouth. Dutch authorities not enforcing. We’re just all in this unventilated room at hour 12, breathing on each other,” she added.
“After all that time with maskless yellers in an unventilated space - we shall see what the next days bring.”
It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:41 pm600 passengers; 61 covid positives; so far 13 have been found to be the Omicron variant
I think we should be careful making assumptions. First, the people on the flight are probably not going to include many who are in risk categories, eg people over 75, or with compromised immune systems. They may be more likely to be vaccinated than the general population in South Africa.lpm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pmIt could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:41 pm600 passengers; 61 covid positives; so far 13 have been found to be the Omicron variant
But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
Good point about the football team. Air passengers aren’t a random sample of the population and people do often travel in groups.lpm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pmIt could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:41 pm600 passengers; 61 covid positives; so far 13 have been found to be the Omicron variant
But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
No, that's not what I'm saying at all.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:35 pmI think we should be careful making assumptions. First, the people on the flight are probably not going to include many who are in risk categories, eg people over 75, or with compromised immune systems. They may be more likely to be vaccinated than the general population in South Africa.lpm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pmIt could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:41 pm600 passengers; 61 covid positives; so far 13 have been found to be the Omicron variant
But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
Second, we don’t know when they were infected. If that happened just before the flight or in transit then we wouldn’t expect them to be showing signs of severe illness.
Back in the spring of 2020 lots of wrong assumptions were made Covid’s severity from people who looked at the initial data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and didn’t check for the additional deaths that occurred in subsequent weeks.
Ah yes, I agree with you.lpm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:51 pmNo, that's not what I'm saying at all.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:35 pmI think we should be careful making assumptions. First, the people on the flight are probably not going to include many who are in risk categories, eg people over 75, or with compromised immune systems. They may be more likely to be vaccinated than the general population in South Africa.lpm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:11 pm
It could be that all 13 are connected and are actually 1 case multiplied out, e.g. a football squad.
But if it is 13 separates out of 600 then it hints that Omi is milder and more asymptomatic - the case/hospitalisation/death data in South Africa doesn't show the upward spikes that this sort of proportion should imply.
Second, we don’t know when they were infected. If that happened just before the flight or in transit then we wouldn’t expect them to be showing signs of severe illness.
Back in the spring of 2020 lots of wrong assumptions were made Covid’s severity from people who looked at the initial data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and didn’t check for the additional deaths that occurred in subsequent weeks.
Not judging severity from the plane. Judging it from the South Africa data. Within South Africa, if you compare the plane's case proportions to South Africa data you get a mismatch.