Key lessons of covid

[shpalman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... tists-warn

It's not clear to me if those scientists understood the key lessons at the time let alone forgetting them now.

“My big regret is that we still have not reached scientific consensus on the value and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs],” he said. “We know that NPIs do reduce transmission. But whether the benefits outweigh the harms is still far from clear.”

[jimbob]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... tists-warn

It's not clear to me if those scientists understood the key lessons at the time let alone forgetting them now.

“My big regret is that we still have not reached scientific consensus on the value and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs],” he said. “We know that NPIs do reduce transmission. But whether the benefits outweigh the harms is still far from clear.”

It's a bit of a puzzler.

Mandatory masking and earlier lockdown with associated economic harms or more spread, faster viral evolution, more deaths and maimings followed by longer lockdown and mandatory masking for longer.

[shpalman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... tists-warn

It's not clear to me if those scientists understood the key lessons at the time let alone forgetting them now.

“My big regret is that we still have not reached scientific consensus on the value and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs],” he said. “We know that NPIs do reduce transmission. But whether the benefits outweigh the harms is still far from clear.”

It's a bit of a puzzler.

Mandatory masking and earlier lockdown with associated economic harms or more spread, faster viral evolution, more deaths and maimings followed by longer lockdown and mandatory masking for longer.

People didn't want to lock down and didn't understand that masks, especially FP2 masks, would have been useful. It was all about hand washing.

Also the hospitals initially went straight to prone artificial respiration (because that's the only thing which works for SARS 1) and only later developed the positive-pressure oxygen bubble head thing.

[Woodchopper]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... tists-warn

It's not clear to me if those scientists understood the key lessons at the time let alone forgetting them now.

“My big regret is that we still have not reached scientific consensus on the value and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs],” he said. “We know that NPIs do reduce transmission. But whether the benefits outweigh the harms is still far from clear.”

It's a bit of a puzzler.

Mandatory masking and earlier lockdown with associated economic harms or more spread, faster viral evolution, more deaths and maimings followed by longer lockdown and mandatory masking for longer.

The harms though were much wider than economic. As mentioned in the article it appears that school closures had a significant and long term negative effects on education and social development of children. We'll have to see whether how long the disadvantage lasts. I haven't seen stats on the UK, but in the US the lockdowns led to increased use of drugs and alcohol, which led to more overdoses and other health problems. Social isolation had a major negative effect upon very many people. The enforcement of lockdowns appears to have increased polarization and reduced trust in institutions.

I think that the lockdowns were the right decision at the time. But working out the costs and benefits will be difficult. [Edit] Its also not an either or issue. In a future pandemic we might decide to introduce mandatory NPIs but do them differently.

[jimbob]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... tists-warn

It's not clear to me if those scientists understood the key lessons at the time let alone forgetting them now.

It's a bit of a puzzler.

Mandatory masking and earlier lockdown with associated economic harms or more spread, faster viral evolution, more deaths and maimings followed by longer lockdown and mandatory masking for longer.

The harms though were much wider than economic. As mentioned in the article it appears that school closures had a significant and long term negative effects on education and social development of children. We'll have to see whether how long the disadvantage lasts. I haven't seen stats on the UK, but in the US the lockdowns led to increased use of drugs and alcohol, which led to more overdoses and other health problems. Social isolation had a major negative effect upon very many people. The enforcement of lockdowns appears to have increased polarization and reduced trust in institutions.

I think that the lockdowns were the right decision at the time. But working out the costs and benefits will be difficult. [Edit] Its also not an either or issue. In a future pandemic we might decide to introduce mandatory NPIs but do them differently.

They were implemented badly, but my point was that the alternative of having mass deaths and many parents maimed would be worse

[IvanV]

The harms though were much wider than economic. As mentioned in the article it appears that school closures had a significant and long term negative effects on education and social development of children. We'll have to see whether how long the disadvantage lasts. I haven't seen stats on the UK, but in the US the lockdowns led to increased use of drugs and alcohol, which led to more overdoses and other health problems. Social isolation had a major negative effect upon very many people. The enforcement of lockdowns appears to have increased polarization and reduced trust in institutions.

I think that the lockdowns were the right decision at the time. But working out the costs and benefits will be difficult. [Edit] Its also not an either or issue. In a future pandemic we might decide to introduce mandatory NPIs but do them differently.

In the US, they have identified persistent educational deficits in states that locked down more heavily. But excess deaths were higher. A horrible trade-off to have to make.