Variant of Delta variant
- shpalman
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Variant of Delta variant
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- bob sterman
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
Yeah right“Britain is the only country in which it has taken off in this way and I still would not rule out its growth being a chance demographic event,”
UK seems to be good at generating "chance events"
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
Who could possibly have predicted such an outcome?
Sounds like Alpha and Delta are having cute babies, just in time for winter.
Sounds like Alpha and Delta are having cute babies, just in time for winter.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- shpalman
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
The virus however should be thanking you lot.“We shouldn’t be blaming the virus for what is going on in the UK,” said Gupta. “It is because we have fundamentally failed to control transmission, and that is because kids are vulnerable, they have not been vaccinated, they are back at school, they are spreading virus among themselves and they are feeding it into their families.”
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
I don't know, maybe anyone with a rudimentary understanding of ecology or the effects of selective pressures on development of traits?Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:52 amWho could possibly have predicted such an outcome?
Sounds like Alpha and Delta are having cute babies, just in time for winter.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Variant of Delta variant
Steady now.
There's been loads of these OMG VARIANT events.
There's been loads of these OMG VARIANT events.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: Variant of Delta variant
And a couple - Alpha then Delta, were significantly worse than the prevailing strains.
This looks to be making headway against other Delta variants, so is concerning at the least.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Variant of Delta variant
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650Prof Francois Balloux, director of University College London's Genetics Institute, said: "It is potentially a marginally more infectious strain.
"It's nothing compared with what we saw with Alpha and Delta, which were something like 50 to 60 percent more transmissible. So we are talking about something quite subtle here and that is currently under investigation.
"It is likely to be up to 10 percent more transmissible.
"It's good that we are aware. It's excellent that we have the facilities and infrastructure in place to see anything that might be a bit suspicious.
"At this stage I would say wait and see, don't panic. It might be slightly, subtly more transmissible but it is not something absolutely disastrous like we saw previously."
- shpalman
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
If you'd been a bit more OMG ALPHA a bit sooner, fewer people might have died in Western Europe last winter. (And being a bit more OMG DELTA and a bit less desperate to keep Modi sweet may have helped you out a bit too.)
But it seems that this one isn't massively concerning compared to the damage you're letting Delta do.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: Variant of Delta variant
Yeah, we killed a lot of people with those two, our bad.
But those were events without a vaccine. Variants of a very different Covid-19.
But those were events without a vaccine. Variants of a very different Covid-19.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- shpalman
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: Variant of Delta variant
Going OK, just. Still to close to the cliff edge but getting away with it so far. Fatalities are below what Johnson & Co budgeted and the electorate seems more than happy to accept the death toll.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- shpalman
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
No need for Plan B then?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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- After Pie
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
Is there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: Variant of Delta variant
A bit difficult to get historical data on how vaccines perform against a new variantHerainestold wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pmIs there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
"My interest is in the future, because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there"
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- After Pie
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
So we have to wait.Martin_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:26 amA bit difficult to get historical data on how vaccines perform against a new variantHerainestold wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pmIs there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
- Woodchopper
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... -in-the-uk
Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 designated as a Variant Under Investigation by UK Health Security Agency
Re: Variant of Delta variant
In the link given by ...Martin_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:26 amA bit difficult to get historical data on how vaccines perform against a new variantHerainestold wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:44 pmIs there any evidence for how vaccines perform against this new variant?
... I read ...Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:39 pmhttps://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... -in-the-uk
Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 designated as a Variant Under Investigation by UK Health Security Agency
While evidence is still emerging, so far it does not appear this variant causes more severe disease or renders the vaccines currently deployed any less effective. As is routine for any new variants under investigation, UKHSA is carrying out laboratory and epidemiological investigations to better understand the properties of this variant.
- Woodchopper
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ing_26.pdf
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 26
Summary thread: https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 37538?s=21
tl;dr
Looks like when compared to Delta A.Y.4.2 has a 17% growth rate advantage and a 12% higher household secondary attack rate.
So it’s probably more transmissible, but isn’t the game changer that Delta and Alpha were.
- Woodchopper
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
Latest Sanger Institute data also shows a slowly increasing proportion of AY.4.2 compared to Delta: https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
Re: Variant of Delta variant
Not a new variant but explaining how delta is so infectious
https://www.science.org/content/article ... id=3986069
https://www.science.org/content/article ... id=3986069
This sounds as though it could be a very useful tool for other diseases as wellThat discovery, published today in Science, is “a big deal,” says Michael Summers, a structural biologist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County—not just because it helps explain Delta’s ravages. The new system, developed by Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna of the University of California (UC), Berkeley, and her colleagues, is a powerful tool for understanding current SARS-CoV-2 variants and exploring how future variants might affect the pandemic, he says. “The system she has developed allows you to look at any mutation and its influence on key parts of viral replication. … That can now be studied in a much easier way by a lot more scientists.”
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- Woodchopper
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
But no evidence of more severe infections or lower vaccine effectiveness.
AY.4.2. continues to increase in prevalence slowly in England. There is an increased growth rate for AY.4.2. compared to other circulating variants in 2 separate models, and this is now consistent across regions of England. There is a small increase in secondary attack rate and in household transmission risk, though both these analyses have limitations as they are derived from routine testing and tracing data systems. There is also a slowly increasing prevalence and an increased growth rate for AY.4.2 in incoming travellers to the UK. However, there is as yet no other country reporting the same effect through domestic surveillance and there is some conflicting evidence from community survey data. Confidence in this finding therefore remains low.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... r-2021.pdf
- Woodchopper
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Re: Variant of Delta variant
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 28
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... v_2021.pdf
See the thread: https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 03874?s=21
Most notable thing is the combination of Delta and the E484K mutation which is associated with immune system evasion. So far numbers have been very small though and that mutation appears to negatively affect the virus.
Technical briefing 28
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... v_2021.pdf
See the thread: https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/14 ... 03874?s=21
Most notable thing is the combination of Delta and the E484K mutation which is associated with immune system evasion. So far numbers have been very small though and that mutation appears to negatively affect the virus.