I don't think you read the thread, as it doesn't call for a new lockdown.lpm wrote: ↑Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:19 pmThis Burn-Murdoch thing is surely 100% wrong.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:41 pmAs an AstraZeneca recipient this offers me no comfort - but it could also be partly due to the vaccine mix used for different age groups (as John Burn-Murdoch also suggests).Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:10 pmJohn Burn-Murdoch thread on why UK cases and deaths are so much higher than other parts of Europe.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 39176?s=20
tl;dr much more indoor mixing in the UK, and the UK's speedier vaccination programme means that immunity is waning sooner.
Looking down at the entire population there's a huge variation in types and timing. And it's applied to vastly different ages and DNA types.
It's basically flat as a result. There's no curves or slopes in any VE chart.
And the case load is very heavily skewed to unvaccinated children, plus young people with recent doses, where waning is irrelevant.
I don't think the question "UK cases and deaths are so much higher than other parts of Europe" needs any other answer apart from we unlocked fully at 50,000 and we plateaued pretty much there (apart from the weird drop to 30,000 and minor ups and downs since).
Waning will though increase, so if not countered by booster vaccines we can expect the case numbers to grow. Which they have been for a while now. So as you write the most important thing is to speed up the booster programmes. Burn-Murdoch also mentions wearing masks in crowded indoor areas.
Burn-Murdoch also mentions long-term structural things like better sick leave so people can afford to self isolate, and reducing poverty among the elderly. Which would be good things anyway.