B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
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- Fuzzable
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
That article says it will start to be included from the end of this month although I thought I'd read middle of Jan somewhere last month.
I know it shouldn't surprise me that it's taken omicron to speed them up on this, but it does. I dread to think how many cases we might have over the 218k reported today.
I know it shouldn't surprise me that it's taken omicron to speed them up on this, but it does. I dread to think how many cases we might have over the 218k reported today.
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Quick question, because my google Fu is failing me and I'm sure someone here knows. It might also have been discussed, but I can't find the answer with the search.
What's the typical length of time between exposure and hospitalisation for omicron?
What's the typical length of time between exposure and hospitalisation for omicron?
- sTeamTraen
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Something something hammer something something nail
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Because Scotland hasn't supplied figures since the 27th.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:52 amDoes anyone know why the UK hospital admission numbers haven't been updated in more than a week?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
This is what it looks like for England upto 3rd JansTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:52 amDoes anyone know why the UK hospital admission numbers haven't been updated in more than a week?
Untitled.png
I use 7day rolling totals for hospital admissions and cases because they're easier to explain what they mean, as opposed to new cases and average numbers in hospital.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
...and yet we still see "decoupled" and "vaccines have broken the link" wandering about the discourse like unkillable zombies.
Clearly Omicron is another change to the gearing. But the pathway is guaranteed.
Clearly Omicron is another change to the gearing. But the pathway is guaranteed.
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- sTeamTraen
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
What is going on with the loopy bits of the left-hand plot?
Something something hammer something something nail
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
The minor oscillations during the long plateau of July to Nov 2021.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Yup
Here's June-November, each dot is one day.
Forget about the annotations, I just CBA to fix them
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
I saw this kind of phase plot in a really cool paper on bird demography recently. Really effective visualisation IMHO.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Doesn’t the relevance of a 7-day rolling admission change when the average length of stay changes?
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Yes, but the advantage is that I can say "this is the rolling sum of the last 7 days" for both axes. Rather than describing a rolling average
Of course, if more of the cases are in the vaccinated, you'd really hope that the hospitalisations per case for Omicron would be lower
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
The rolling average would be the rolling sum of the last 7 days, divided by 7.
(I prefer to use the 7-day either-side average; it doesn't change the number, just which date it's assigned to.)
This is why I also follow the occupancy, since we don't have figures for numbers discharged per day.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
They show different things. Hospital admissions are going to be more tightly coupled to actual cases (as in one-time incidents) than actual hospital occupancy, as the lag will be more spready.shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:34 amThe rolling average would be the rolling sum of the last 7 days, divided by 7.
(I prefer to use the 7-day either-side average; it doesn't change the number, just which date it's assigned to.)
This is why I also follow the occupancy, since we don't have figures for numbers discharged per day.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Yes, that's why I follow both of them.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Nearly 40% of Covid hospital cases in England now patients primarily being treated for something else, latest figures show
Is that a lot? Is it more than before? Less than before?
How about we always visualization the data:
From the beginning of October (when this data starts) until mid December it was roughly constant at around 25%, now it's come up to around 40%.
Is that a lot? Is it more than before? Less than before?
So that 40% (well done for giving a figure in the headline and then talking about one minus it in the rest of the text) is a number which has been "drifting" up, but then the numbers in hospital (with+for) overall have been going up.NHS England has this morning published its latest “primary diagnosis” supplement. This is a dataset that shows how many of the daily Covid hospital cases are patients being treated in hospital for Covid, and how many are patients with Covid being treated primary for something else.
The hospital figures that are published daily do not make this distinction
The latest figure is for Tuesday 4 January and it shows that in England 13,045 patients were in hospital with Covid on that day, but only 8,200 for Covid. That means only 63% of Covid cases were in hospital primary because of Covid.
This figures has been drifting down. The equivalent figure for the previous Tuesday, when total Covid cases were 8,321, was 67%, and the Tuesday before that, when overall cases were 6,245, 71% of them were people being treated primary for Covid.
The figures cover acute hospital admissions only.
How about we always visualization the data:
From the beginning of October (when this data starts) until mid December it was roughly constant at around 25%, now it's come up to around 40%.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- shpalman
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Not sure whether to interpret that as patients who were already in hospital for something else are catching covid while they're in there, or that covid is now worse in people with pre-existing conditions.
Or that there's an epidemic of pre-existing conditions f.ck should I know.
Or that there's an epidemic of pre-existing conditions f.ck should I know.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
... or that the same number of people are needing to go to hospital for acute reasons and when they covid-test them on arrival an increasing number of them turn out to be positive - that's probably it.
Only having the data since October means I can't really compare this to previous waves.
Only having the data since October means I can't really compare this to previous waves.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
I expect its a combination of that and picking up an infection in hospital.
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
The Guardian found that Jamie Jenkins, a former ONS statistician, has visualizationed the data on at twitter.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Sooner or later every ward becomes a covid ward.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:52 pm
I expect its a combination of that and picking up an infection in hospital.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Well it's interesting how hospital occupancy is going up, and deaths are going up (so you're hitting your target of 1000 deaths per week with quite a margin to spare, well done) but MV bed occupancy isn't.
Of course we can't see if that's because there are lots of short-stay* admissions to the MV beds, or if the doctors have realized that some patients are just going to die anyway so there's no point.
* - and of course we don't know in what state patients are leaving them.
Of course we can't see if that's because there are lots of short-stay* admissions to the MV beds, or if the doctors have realized that some patients are just going to die anyway so there's no point.
* - and of course we don't know in what state patients are leaving them.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
Here I think there's fewer on ICU beds on ventilators, but more on low level oxygen through a cannula, on general wards
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Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
When all is said and done, Omicron is going to prove to be deadlier than Delta.shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:10 pmWell it's interesting how hospital occupancy is going up, and deaths are going up (so you're hitting your target of 1000 deaths per week with quite a margin to spare, well done) but MV bed occupancy isn't.
Of course we can't see if that's because there are lots of short-stay* admissions to the MV beds, or if the doctors have realized that some patients are just going to die anyway so there's no point.
* - and of course we don't know in what state patients are leaving them.
Masking forever
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Russian socialism will rise again
Re: B.1.1.529 Omicron variant
shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:10 pmWell it's interesting how hospital occupancy is going up, and deaths are going up (so you're hitting your target of 1000 deaths per week with quite a margin to spare, well done) but MV bed occupancy isn't.
Of course we can't see if that's because there are lots of short-stay* admissions to the MV beds, or if the doctors have realized that some patients are just going to die anyway so there's no point.
* - and of course we don't know in what state patients are leaving them.
There are questions whether it's worse for blood clotting
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation