Getting Brexit done

[sheldrake]

You've misunderstood the difference between customs checks on goods from England, Scotland and Wales destined for Northern Ireland, and checks on those goods destined for the Republic. Johnson hasn't lied about this. You are right that the DUP didn't like it though, it was only the ERG that were okay with it.

[GeenDienst]

...aaaannnnddd here we go for another 10 pages ....

[Little waster]

You've misunderstood the difference between customs checks on goods from England, Scotland and Wales destined for Northern Ireland, and checks on those goods destined for the Republic. Johnson hasn't lied about this. You are right that the DUP didn't like it though, it was only the ERG that were okay with it.

And how exactly do the border officials differentiate between a box of widgets destined for Belfast, a box of widgets destined for Buncara and a box of widgets destined for Belfast which will then be immediately stuck on a truck to Buncara ... or Bucharest?

Presumably some sort of form will be in order and and a official from some sort of customs organisation will have to physically check the box (or some random percentage thereof) to check for compliance, smuggling and fraud.

I assume any businessman who then informs the customs official that he has thrown said form in a bin and demands to speak to the PM will quickly find out what the official’s grumpy face looks like and what colour the inside of a courtroom is.

[sheldrake]

And how exactly do the border officials differentiate between a box of widgets destined for Belfast, a box of widgets destined for Buncara and a box of widgets destined for Belfast which will then be immediately stuck on a truck to Buncara ... or Bucharest?

Presumably some sort of form will be in order and and a official from some sort of customs organisation will have to physically check the box (or some random percentage thereof) to check for compliance, smuggling and fraud.

I assume any businessman who then informs the customs official that he has thrown said form in a bin and demands to speak to the PM will quickly find out what the official’s grumpy face looks like and what colour the inside of a courtroom is.

They'll have to register shipping manifests, I'm sure (as they do now). There aren't going to be EU officials in the Irish sea with the power to stop people travelling between parts of the UK or arrest them. It's more likely that there will be inspections in warehouses in the Republic of Ireland.

[greyspoke]

And how exactly do the border officials differentiate between a box of widgets destined for Belfast, a box of widgets destined for Buncara and a box of widgets destined for Belfast which will then be immediately stuck on a truck to Buncara ... or Bucharest?

Presumably some sort of form will be in order and and a official from some sort of customs organisation will have to physically check the box (or some random percentage thereof) to check for compliance, smuggling and fraud.

I assume any businessman who then informs the customs official that he has thrown said form in a bin and demands to speak to the PM will quickly find out what the official’s grumpy face looks like and what colour the inside of a courtroom is.

They'll have to register shipping manifests, I'm sure (as they do now). There aren't going to be EU officials in the Irish sea with the power to stop people travelling between parts of the UK or arrest them. It's more likely that there will be inspections in warehouses in the Republic of Ireland.

There are no such EU officials, anywhere. All that type of stuff is done by officials of states in order to comply with their EU or international law obligations.

[sheldrake]

There are no such EU officials, anywhere. All that type of stuff is done by officials of states in order to comply with their EU or international law obligations.

Exactly. So as enforcement is entirely at UK govt's discretion if we want to rely on technology and trusted trader schemes, we will. The ROI govt. only has enforcement powers in its own territory.

[Martin Y]

So as long as nobody complains that the UK is failing to meet its obligations and ignoring massive fraud for political reasons, it might work.

[plodder]

That's the thing. I worry it'll lead to BINO by the back door, all the "seamless" border stuff will inevitably require loads of invisible regulatory alignment.

[GeenDienst]

Not even close. The EU will protect the integrity of its institutions. If UK abuses the agreed terms NI is getting that border. A last resort, but they are not going to let the UK f.ck them over.

Even if BINO was a bad thing, which it isn't.

[plodder]

I'm struggling to understand what you think, why you think I'm wrong, and how you think the thing you just said means something diametrically opposed to the thing I just said.

[GeenDienst]

OK given the context of what went before, I'd thought you'd meant ignoring the rules, which clearly you did not, so sorry for that.

Still don't see BINO as a worry though.

[dyqik]

OK given the context of what went before, I'd thought you'd meant ignoring the rules, which clearly you did not, so sorry for that.

Still don't see BINO as a worry though.

BINO isn't anywhere near what's possible now.

FOM is off the table, single market is off the table. Even keeping a customs union is a moderately hard Brexit which disrupts a significant proportion, if not a majority, of cross-border economic activity. And that's not likely either.

[GeenDienst]

Maybe the issue is some sort of near-BINO in Norn Iron, for reasons of political expediency on both sides, and not for the rest of us. Still would not fly, as the EU would not tolerate a back door into thr CU and SM.

[plodder]

We'll see how the immovable object fares up to Boris Johnson's principles.

BINO is an issue because it's worse than membership in many ways, including losing control of the ability to influence new regulations, loss of the ability to forge new trade deals, and it will also piss off both remainers and leavers.

[sheldrake]

So as long as nobody complains that the UK is failing to meet its obligations and ignoring massive fraud for political reasons, it might work.

The EU will make that complaint if all of these conditions are met: -

1) We don't have an FTA with the EU in place that makes this all moot
2) They actually detect fraud from their checks in Eire, I wouldn't assume that the trusted trader etc.. measures can't work because they're already used succesfully elsewhere.
3) The EU still exists

I think it's unlikely all 3 of those things happen

[sheldrake]

That's the thing. I worry it'll lead to BINO by the back door, all the "seamless" border stuff will inevitably require loads of invisible regulatory alignment.

I don't know why you believe this, when it's not needed for seemless trade elsewhere in the world.

[Martin Y]

So as long as nobody complains that the UK is failing to meet its obligations and ignoring massive fraud for political reasons, it might work.

The EU will make that complaint if all of these conditions are met: -

1) We don't have an FTA with the EU in place that makes this all moot
2) They actually detect fraud from their checks in Eire, I wouldn't assume that the trusted trader etc.. measures can't work because they're already used succesfully elsewhere.
3) The EU still exists

I think it's unlikely all 3 of those things happen

1)that's what we're throwing away. We may be able eventually to remake a partial agreement but independent deals with other countries will conflict.
2) the driver for our tech solutions is the politics of looking like there's no border, not the pragmatism of what works effectively and efficiently. So I don't expect effectiveness or efficiency.
3) we have done more in recent years to bind the EU closer than any other nation. We may be stuck with trying to put the best possible gloss on our current situation but the rest of the world still thinks we're f.cking idiots.

[greyspoke]

There are no such EU officials, anywhere. All that type of stuff is done by officials of states in order to comply with their EU or international law obligations.

Exactly. So as enforcement is entirely at UK govt's discretion if we want to rely on technology and trusted trader schemes, we will. The ROI govt. only has enforcement powers in its own territory.

If another party to the agreement thinks a breach is serious enough, they can take unilateral action such as imposing tariffs etc. International law permits this. Enforcement of an international agreement in someone else's territory (without their consent) is basically war. So there are ways around that.

[plodder]

That's the thing. I worry it'll lead to BINO by the back door, all the "seamless" border stuff will inevitably require loads of invisible regulatory alignment.

I don't know why you believe this, when it's not needed for seemless trade elsewhere in the world.

Because they either need regulatory alignment or customs processes, that's why.

[malbui]

My regular and pointless reminder that the country is called Ireland, unless you're writing as Gaeilge of course.

I weep for the country in which I grew up because of all this Brexit nonsense. The only good thing about it looking from this part of the world is that the total clusterf.ck has seriously deterred the parties on both extremes here from pushing for some kind of Frexit (or Frantie, which I've also heard). Three or four years ago it was still being suggested by the likes of Le Pen and her charming colleagues, but it's all gone very quiet on that front.

[sheldrake]

Because they either need regulatory alignment or customs processes, that's why.

They don't need regulatory alignment and the customs processes don't have to involve border inspections.

[sheldrake]

1)that's what we're throwing away. We may be able eventually to remake a partial agreement but independent deals with other countries will conflict.

We're leaving a political union and would be happy to replace it with an FTA.

2) the driver for our tech solutions is the politics of looking like there's no border, not the pragmatism of what works effectively and efficiently. So I don't expect effectiveness or efficiency.

Why?

3) we have done more in recent years to bind the EU closer than any other nation. We may be stuck with trying to put the best possible gloss on our current situation but the rest of the world still thinks we're f.cking idiots.

That depends very much on how much remain-leaning media you consume.

[Dermot O'Logical]

Feel free to show me the world outside my bubble. Which international media should i read to discover foreigners who think the UK isn't insane and ridiculous?

[bjn]

Feel free to show me the world outside my bubble. Which international media should i read to discover foreigners who think the UK isn't insane and ridiculous?

Fox News?

[dyqik]

Feel free to show me the world outside my bubble. Which international media should i read to discover foreigners who think the UK isn't insane and ridiculous?

Fox News?

Even Russia Today is taking the piss out of the UK and US.