Five Year Death Average For UK

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
Post Reply
User avatar
Stranger Mouse
After Pie
Posts: 1875
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:23 pm

Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:38 pm

Just been pwned on Twitter by a “people die get used to it” account who pointed out deaths over the last three weeks are lower than the five year average for deaths in the UK. Now that isn’t surprising when you consider two of those years are a pandemic but it also seems to apply for the five year average up to 2019. I find this a bit surprising- Am I I missing something or should I gracefully accept defeat?
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 7567
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by shpalman » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:45 pm

Without actually checking any facts or boring stuff like that, wot I reckon is that a lot of people who would have died this winter from the usual non-covid things people used to die of in winter, have already died with or because of covid.

And then the covid restrictions and changes in behaviour may also help against respiratory infections in general.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 4573
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Gfamily » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:49 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:38 pm
Just been pwned on Twitter by a “people die get used to it” account who pointed out deaths over the last three weeks are lower than the five year average for deaths in the UK. Now that isn’t surprising when you consider two of those years are a pandemic but it also seems to apply for the five year average up to 2019. I find this a bit surprising- Am I I missing something or should I gracefully accept defeat?
I'd expect that the figures for the most recent 3 weeks might not be complete - and if so, would be likely to increase rather than decrease.

Also, do they mean 'lower than the overall average 2014-19' or 'lower than the comparable 3 weeks of the year' ?

Also, of the 170,000 people who died earlier than expected over the last 2 years, a certain number of those would be ones that would have died this month.

So - ask them what they think their number means, and work on analysing their interpretation. Or don't bother.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:26 pm

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status/14 ... jfCYjB7h8A

Running totals for the year running wk31-wk30

And a previous tweet has the weekly totals but not cumulative and with a conventional calendar.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
jdc
Hilda Ogden
Posts: 1830
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:31 pm
Location: Your Mum
Contact:

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jdc » Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:30 am

Gfamily wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:49 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:38 pm
Just been pwned on Twitter by a “people die get used to it” account who pointed out deaths over the last three weeks are lower than the five year average for deaths in the UK. Now that isn’t surprising when you consider two of those years are a pandemic but it also seems to apply for the five year average up to 2019. I find this a bit surprising- Am I I missing something or should I gracefully accept defeat?
I'd expect that the figures for the most recent 3 weeks might not be complete - and if so, would be likely to increase rather than decrease.
I guess they must be using the provisional figures in the latest weekly reports, the most recent of which did find that deaths were lower:

Spoiler:


If the figures are for deaths registered 1-21 Jan and the release date is 1 Feb I wouldn't bank on the numbers increasing unless someone belatedly spots a mistake.

I reckon it's your 3rd suggestion and what shpalman said - a lot of people who would have died this winter from the usual non-covid things people used to die of in winter, have already died with or because of covid [From the week ending 13 March 2020 to the week ending 21 January 2022, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average in England and Wales was 125,627].

User avatar
Stranger Mouse
After Pie
Posts: 1875
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:33 am

I suppose there’s not a lot of flu around at the moment as far as I can tell - the real test will be if the reduction in deaths continues outside of flu season
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:01 am

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:33 am
I suppose there’s not a lot of flu around at the moment as far as I can tell - the real test will be if the reduction in deaths continues outside of flu season
Before Christmas - from the summer up to week 50, 2021 was higher than any year except 2020 - sometimes higher

Image

It was only 1999-2000 that was higher in the time in that graph
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:23 am

Screenshot 2022-02-03 082303.png
Screenshot 2022-02-03 082303.png (79.45 KiB) Viewed 1449 times
This shows the max, min and mean for 2015-2019 for comparison
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
bob sterman
Catbabel
Posts: 965
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
Location: Location Location

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by bob sterman » Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:40 am

jdc wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:30 am
I reckon it's your 3rd suggestion and what shpalman said - a lot of people who would have died this winter from the usual non-covid things people used to die of in winter, have already died with or because of covid [From the week ending 13 March 2020 to the week ending 21 January 2022, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average in England and Wales was 125,627].
I heard an epidemiologist use a really grim term for this . . . "early harvest".

User avatar
Fishnut
After Pie
Posts: 2071
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
Location: UK

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Fishnut » Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:44 am

I'm pretty sure More or Less had an episode on early harvest around the end of the first lockdown.
it's okay to say "I don't know"

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:47 am

Fishnut wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:44 am
I'm pretty sure More or Less had an episode on early harvest around the end of the first lockdown.
There hasn't been much evidence of it so far.

Image
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
dyqik
Light of Blast
Posts: 6458
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by dyqik » Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:38 pm

I'm wondering how much "early harvest" is behind the view that omicron is milder.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:08 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:38 pm
I'm wondering how much "early harvest" is behind the view that omicron is milder.
I'm thinking that reinfections and vaccination might be.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
dyqik
Light of Blast
Posts: 6458
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by dyqik » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:13 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:08 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:38 pm
I'm wondering how much "early harvest" is behind the view that omicron is milder.
I'm thinking that reinfections and vaccination might be.
Yeah, that's a major factor as well.

Aside from vaccination, I'm assuming that it's preferentially affecting people who were taking fewer precautions throughout (whether by choice or not), so it's more likely reinfection, and also affecting the populations that saw the highest death rates of vulnerable people from earlier variants.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:14 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:47 am
Fishnut wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:44 am
I'm pretty sure More or Less had an episode on early harvest around the end of the first lockdown.
There hasn't been much evidence of it so far.

Image
It's worth pointing out that the 2017-18 line (the one that is slightly higher than the Covid years) has been claimed to be a very bad winter by those who deny Covid's impact.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
dyqik
Light of Blast
Posts: 6458
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by dyqik » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:25 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:14 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:47 am
Fishnut wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:44 am
I'm pretty sure More or Less had an episode on early harvest around the end of the first lockdown.
There hasn't been much evidence of it so far.

Image
It's worth pointing out that the 2017-18 line (the one that is slightly higher than the Covid years) has been claimed to be a very bad winter by those who deny Covid's impact.
I can't see a line there that is higher than any point during CoVID? CoVID didn't start until week 10ish of 2020.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by jimbob » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:34 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:25 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:14 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:47 am


There hasn't been much evidence of it so far.

Image
It's worth pointing out that the 2017-18 line (the one that is slightly higher than the Covid years) has been claimed to be a very bad winter by those who deny Covid's impact.
I can't see a line there that is higher than any point during CoVID? CoVID didn't start until week 10ish of 2020.

I've changed the formatting slightly - remember that I started at wk31 as I wanted each winter to be continuous (the flat bit on most years is for wk53)

Image

2018 is a bit higher than the rest, but swamped by Covid.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 4573
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Gfamily » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:41 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:25 pm
I can't see a line there that is higher than any point during CoVID? CoVID didn't start until week 10ish of 2020.
As those are cumulative, it's the slope of the lines for a particular week that's significant I guess
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

Chris Preston
Snowbonk
Posts: 448
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:05 am

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Chris Preston » Fri Feb 04, 2022 4:11 am

dyqik wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:38 pm
I'm wondering how much "early harvest" is behind the view that omicron is milder.
It is even milder here where we had relatively few deaths. Prior to omicron, for those in their 60s, there was 1 death for every 50 cases recorded. Post omicron it is 1 death for every 846 cases.

Covid deaths Australia.jpg
Covid deaths Australia.jpg (112.95 KiB) Viewed 1293 times
98% of those aged in their 60s have 2 COVID vaccinations. I would put the change down to that.

5 to 11 year olds only started vaccinations 2 weeks ago and their ratio of cases to deaths has not moved as much as every other age group.

Being over 90 remains a very significant risk of death.
Here grows much rhubarb.

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 7567
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:20 am

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

IvanV
After Pie
Posts: 1759
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by IvanV » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:53 am

The Economist has an article in the current issue saying:

Royal College of Emergency Medicine published an estimate that delays in A&E are causing 300-500 excess deaths per week. Admits that it is a rough estimate. This used some source data from a paper published in Emergency Medicine Journal in early 22.

The Economist did some of its own modelling work using more recent data, giving similar estimates.

ONS data shows excess deaths persistently about 1500/wk above 2016-19 average since mid 21, apart from a dip of about 3 months in early 22 when it returned to average for that period. So that suggests, very roughly, that delays in A&E are responsible for about 20%-30% of that.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Five Year Death Average For UK

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:50 am

I wondered whether this is specific to the UK or more general. If UK specific then problems with the NHS and social care would be a likley cause. If more general then perhaps other things may be the cause (eg long term damage to lungs from Covid infection in 2020-2021 leading to excess mortality in 2022).

I just eyeballed the z scores over at EuroMOMO.

Across all European countries covered there has been significant excess mortality in the latter half of 2020 compared to a similar period in 2017, 2018, 2019. That severe excess mortality in Q3 and Q4 2022 is found among all age groups above 45, and seems to be worse among people aged over 75.

Looking at the scores by country and again at the second half of 2020, it looks like the worst excess mortality is found in Germany, Italy, Spain and England. Excess mortality was also persistently increased in Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Northern Ireland, Wales. But it didn't seem to be raised in Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Scotland. I'm looking at the record over the six months and have ignored single bumps as epidemics are to be expected.

All that is very preliminary and just based upon eyeballing the graphs. But it looks like there is a European problem with excess mortality and the UK isn't a serious outlier. England is bad, but not obviously worse than Germany, Italy or Spain. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales don't seem to be much worse than other European states.

The important question should be what are Ireland, Cyprus, Denmark or Scotland doing right? Maybe being a small country matters (eg healthcare can be more responsive to changing situations).

Post Reply