The world after February 2022

[sTeamTraen]

I'm starting to think that whatever happens in Ukraine — whether the Russians pull out with a bl..dy nose, or the Ukrainian government runs away and resistance stops, or we get another Chechnya — the European and world political system is going to be dominated by little else for the next decade or more.

Russia is completely f.cked. I don't see how sanctions can be lifted or eased. Who's going to make the first move to do that? As someone in Moscow said to the BBC yesterday, the place is going to turn into North Korea. At least under the Soviet Union the state actually had the ability to feed people. Now it has capitalism without capital and resources without export markets.

Also, within a week at this rate, the destruction in Ukraine will have reached "crimes against humanity" level. Every Russian will be a pariah, wherever they live. I feel sorry for decent Russians who will find that people only have one thing to say to them from now on.

The only way out if this that I can see is if Putin is removed from power. In the meantime I hope that there are enough people required in the nuclear command chain to prevent him making good in that line about "Who needs the world, if it's a world without Russia?".

Also in the background is the possibility that in just under 3 years from now, Donald Trump, or another Republican who shares his admiration for Putin, could be POTUS. At that point the US nuclear umbrella could no longer be relied on. Putin could march to Lisbon and drop 20 kilotons on anyone asking the way who objects.

(I thought about putting this into another topic, such as "Causes of invasion of Ukraine", but decided to create another one. Mods please feel free to merge if it looks like we're going to need another dedicated subforum, although maybe the Covid one can be archived on its 2nd birthday?)

[Bird on a Fire]

Accelerating decarbonisation would be a sensible move, because
1. It's a fraction of the amount spent on killing machines
2. Pretty much all petrostates are c.nty
3. They already said they were going to, but apparently forgot the targets they signed up for, and adhering to international agreements might be a good look right about now

And that's ignoring the tangible benefits (saving hundreds of thousands of lives a year via reduced air pollution, saving millions of lives via avoiding catastrophic climate change, etc).

Interesting how yesterday's IPCC report got basically no attention because everyone's looking at the shiny new problem way over there, instead of the big old one in our backyard. Especially as they're hardly independent: balls to NATO, Putin's budget comes from Europe not sticking to the Paris agreement.

[sTeamTraen]

Accelerating decarbonisation would be a sensible move

If Germany can finally live up to its NATO commitments, it can maybe think again about nuclear power too.

[Bird on a Fire]

Accelerating decarbonisation would be a sensible move

If Germany can finally live up to its NATO commitments, it can maybe think again about nuclear power too.

Building nuclear power stations is unlikely to accelerate anything, unfortunately.

Luckily there's loads of other mature tech.

[lpm]

Got to add the global economic situation. Inflation.

Poverty is going to worsen short term, long term we are under resourced for healthcare, education and infrastructure.

[nekomatic]

As I understood it (but haven’t quickly found a link) the legal basis for the sanctions against Russia is that they are in response to the illegal invasion, not an attempt to force regime change or anything else which would itself be illegal. So if Russia withdraws with a bl..dy nose, the sanctions end… unless there’s another legal basis for continuing them.

Not that everything will or should go straight back to ‘normal’ as soon as that happens, obviously.

[Bird on a Fire]

Who cares about international law, though? The UN has been asking the US to end its embargo of Cuba for 30 years, for instance. If they want to keep sanctions going, they'll just
(a) come up with another reason, or
(b) do it anyway.

Given that the sanctions are coming from the US and EU, they pretty much are the law. Two UN vetoes (three counting UK), big weight at WTO, IMF etc and the US doesn't even recognise the ICC.

[Woodchopper]

As I understood it (but haven’t quickly found a link) the legal basis for the sanctions against Russia is that they are in response to the illegal invasion, not an attempt to force regime change or anything else which would itself be illegal. So if Russia withdraws with a bl..dy nose, the sanctions end… unless there’s another legal basis for continuing them.

Not that everything will or should go straight back to ‘normal’ as soon as that happens, obviously.

I don't think that's correct. The current EU sanctions have amended the 2014 regulations which were brought in after the invasion of Crimea. The 2014 regulations will be in force indefinitely until they are amended again. Politically, though, there would be strong pressure to amend some of the sanctions if Russia were to withdraw from Ukraine. That's what carrots and sticks are all about.

[Woodchopper]

The only way out if this that I can see is if Putin is removed from power.

That might not be enough. Putin is an embodiment of a strand of Russian nationalism but he isn't the only one. We shouldn't assume that Russian policy would change dramatically if Putin were to be deposed and replaced with another strongman.

The only people capable of staging a coup are the generals. But they're the ones who ordered the troops into Ukraine. Its not obvious to me that a military junta in charge of Russia would be significantly more peaceful.

[Woodchopper]

Accelerating decarbonisation would be a sensible move, because
1. It's a fraction of the amount spent on killing machines
2. Pretty much all petrostates are c.nty
3. They already said they were going to, but apparently forgot the targets they signed up for, and adhering to international agreements might be a good look right about now

And that's ignoring the tangible benefits (saving hundreds of thousands of lives a year via reduced air pollution, saving millions of lives via avoiding catastrophic climate change, etc).

Interesting how yesterday's IPCC report got basically no attention because everyone's looking at the shiny new problem way over there, instead of the big old one in our backyard. Especially as they're hardly independent: balls to NATO, Putin's budget comes from Europe not sticking to the Paris agreement.

It seems likely that gas prices in Europe will remain high. They're about 4-5 times what they have usually been over the previous decade. That'll provide a significant incentive to invest in other energy sources.