The Invasion of Ukraine

[shpalman]

twitter thread on what Russians might actually be seeing on their social media

[Sciolus]

Patel still being a c.nt
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 197f3f9b18

LPM is right: the Tories could be a really nasty populist party, but sometimes their populism is undermined by their deep-seated nastiness.

[individualmember]

There have been 2056 nuclear bombs detonated (in tests not sure if it includes the two in anger). I imagine that each one was probably filmed*. I think that qualifies as "many".

*probably from more than one angle/camera....

Quite a few of those were underground, though I don’t know the proportion.

528 were atmospheric, not including the two in anger. That is still many.
Info from here....
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally

On a massive tangent, regarding early nuclear tests: a couple of weeks ago I was handed an envelope and asked “is there any need to keep this?” What it is is a transcript of an acquaintance of my parents’ testimony to a Royal Commission in Australia in 1985 about his experience in the pacific around 1952, being in radioactive areas 15 times over a few months. I guess that a Royal Commission must be on record somewhere, available to academic research (?), but I’d be delighted to share it if anyone knows of someone or some organisation that would want it.

[Gfamily]

Quite a few of those were underground, though I don’t know the proportion.

528 were atmospheric, not including the two in anger. That is still many.
Info from here....
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally

On a massive tangent, regarding early nuclear tests: a couple of weeks ago I was handed an envelope and asked “is there any need to keep this?” What it is is a transcript of an acquaintance of my parents’ testimony to a Royal Commission in Australia in 1985 about his experience in the pacific around 1952, being in radioactive areas 15 times over a few months. I guess that a Royal Commission must be on record somewhere, available to academic research (?), but I’d be delighted to share it if anyone knows of someone or some organisation that would want it.

I don't know if you're interested in the outcome, but the final report is available here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McClellan ... Commission

[individualmember]

On a massive tangent, regarding early nuclear tests: a couple of weeks ago I was handed an envelope and asked “is there any need to keep this?” What it is is a transcript of an acquaintance of my parents’ testimony to a Royal Commission in Australia in 1985 about his experience in the pacific around 1952, being in radioactive areas 15 times over a few months. I guess that a Royal Commission must be on record somewhere, available to academic research (?), but I’d be delighted to share it if anyone knows of someone or some organisation that would want it.

I don't know if you're interested in the outcome, but the final report is available here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McClellan ... Commission

That’s fantastic, thanks for that link

[EACLucifer]

The Russian guy at the United Nations is gaslighting right now at a level even greater than previous Russian statements. He’s gone full “see what you made us do”

In other news Switzerland is joining in sanctions

Switzerland no longer neutral bankers.

Germany committing to rearmament.

Sweden breaking their very longstanding opposition to selling arms to belligerents - only other one I can recall is when the USSR invaded Finland in 39.

[Stranger Mouse]

Putin’s forces have given up on the pretence of civilian targets being hit by accident. https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... 61794?s=21

[EACLucifer]

Putin’s forces have given up on the pretence of civilian targets being hit by accident. https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... 61794?s=21

Iskander missile, most likely, massive and inaccurate. Absolutely indefensible to use it on the middle of a city. Indefensible to use it on anything other than a military target well away from anything*, given it's accuracy - footage shows that several of them fired at an airbase failed to get a single hit on the runway, for example.


*The whole war's indefensible, of course.

[EACLucifer]

Putin’s forces have given up on the pretence of civilian targets being hit by accident. https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... 61794?s=21

Iskander missile, most likely, massive and inaccurate. Absolutely indefensible to use it on the middle of a city. Indefensible to use it on anything other than a military target well away from anything*, given it's accuracy - footage shows that several of them fired at an airbase failed to get a single hit on the runway, for example.

ETA: It may well have been an attempt to kill local government officials


*The whole war's indefensible, of course.

[jimbob]

Tying this to Covid and bot farms.

https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/149 ... 0jKVp9AL9A

Here's a report I pulled today - tweets with the hashtag "myocarditis" stopped for 30+ hours. Tweets with the hashtag "covid19vaccine" stopped happening for even longer than that.

A bunch of antivax and generally disruptive hashtags are showing odd trends right now.

With a very interesting graph, and part of a thread.


From earlier in it.

Russia is trying to keep word of how badly the war is going from reaching their people, so they're limiting access to Facebook and Twitter.

What trolls and bots they do have are now spreading disinformation about the war.

[shpalman]

Propagandist Vladimir Solovyov is whining about not being allowed to go to his villas in Como (actually in Menaggio and Pianello del Lario).

[Stephanie]

Tying this to Covid and bot farms.

https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/149 ... 0jKVp9AL9A

Here's a report I pulled today - tweets with the hashtag "myocarditis" stopped for 30+ hours. Tweets with the hashtag "covid19vaccine" stopped happening for even longer than that.

A bunch of antivax and generally disruptive hashtags are showing odd trends right now.

With a very interesting graph, and part of a thread.


From earlier in it.

Russia is trying to keep word of how badly the war is going from reaching their people, so they're limiting access to Facebook and Twitter.

What trolls and bots they do have are now spreading disinformation about the war.

Tweets here disagree with the analysis https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status ... 8297840653

[jimbob]

Tying this to Covid and bot farms.

https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/149 ... 0jKVp9AL9A

Here's a report I pulled today - tweets with the hashtag "myocarditis" stopped for 30+ hours. Tweets with the hashtag "covid19vaccine" stopped happening for even longer than that.

A bunch of antivax and generally disruptive hashtags are showing odd trends right now.

With a very interesting graph, and part of a thread.


From earlier in it.

Russia is trying to keep word of how badly the war is going from reaching their people, so they're limiting access to Facebook and Twitter.

What trolls and bots they do have are now spreading disinformation about the war.

Tweets here disagree with the analysis https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status ... 8297840653

So I see.

But Hoaxy shows this effect when looking for #FreedomConvoy, for example.
https://hoaxy.osome.iu.edu/#query=%23fr ... tter&lang=


@conspirator0 said that hoaxy is limited so often doesn't catch things. They are far more expert than me in this, though

But even it is, the flatline indicates some abnormal behaviour.

https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status ... mfW15LHN5w

[jimbob]

Tying this to Covid and bot farms.

https://twitter.com/klharlow/status/149 ... 0jKVp9AL9A




With a very interesting graph, and part of a thread.


From earlier in it.

Tweets here disagree with the analysis https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status ... 8297840653

So I see.

But Hoaxy shows this effect when looking for #FreedomConvoy, for example.
https://hoaxy.osome.iu.edu/#query=%23fr ... tter&lang=


@conspirator0 said that hoaxy is limited so often doesn't catch things. They are far more expert than me in this, though

But even it is, the flatline indicates some abnormal behaviour.

https://twitter.com/conspirator0/status ... mfW15LHN5w

Possibly a Hoaxy issue

https://twitter.com/jean_leroux/status/ ... -HkUUuqG2w

ETA: almost certainly as I just looked for "Ukraine" in that timeframe and got the same shape

https://hoaxy.osome.iu.edu/#query=ukrai ... tter&lang=

[lpm]

Can this be true?

Belarus puppet dictator doing a photo op with the map of the attack plans?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/14 ... 8288423936

[lpm]

If true, it shows the invasion forces in the Sumy & Kharkiv region heading south west to the Dnieper, rather than south east to the Donbas.

And shows an Odesa landing with the force then heading to Moldova.

[Pishwish]

There is evidence online (but not from a good source) that an odessa landing was halted due to a mutiny, but it could be propaganda.

[monkey]

The map doesn't look that different to what you might see in the guardian or summat to me (and I'm not a military expert by any stretch). The arrows are bigger, but seem to be pointing the same directions. Has this really revealed anything?

[jimbob]

The map doesn't look that different to what you might see in the guardian or summat to me (and I'm not a military expert by any stretch). The arrows are bigger, but seem to be pointing the same directions. Has this really revealed anything?

An attack into Moldova would be something new.

[EACLucifer]

Putin’s forces have given up on the pretence of civilian targets being hit by accident. https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... 61794?s=21

Iskander missile, most likely, massive and inaccurate. Absolutely indefensible to use it on the middle of a city. Indefensible to use it on anything other than a military target well away from anything*, given it's accuracy - footage shows that several of them fired at an airbase failed to get a single hit on the runway, for example.


*The whole war's indefensible, of course.

Those who know a lot more about it than me say it was a Kalibr missile, not an Iskander. Rest of post remains accurate.

[WFJ]

Putin’s forces have given up on the pretence of civilian targets being hit by accident. https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... 61794?s=21

Iskander missile, most likely, massive and inaccurate. Absolutely indefensible to use it on the middle of a city. Indefensible to use it on anything other than a military target well away from anything*, given it's accuracy - footage shows that several of them fired at an airbase failed to get a single hit on the runway, for example.


*The whole war's indefensible, of course.

Those who know a lot more about it than me say it was a Kalibr missile, not an Iskander. Rest of post remains accurate.

And apparently it was Sergei not Alexey who pulled the trigger.

Seriously what is the point in these masturbatory disaster p.rn posts.

[Bird on a Fire]

Not going well for Russia economically - so many Western companies are exiting their investments there (including big-hitters like BP and Shell) that they've had to ban them taking their money out. I assume that in turn can have knock-on consequences.

I assume they're just selling those investments to people in less scrupulous jurisdictions, and that in isolation they're unlikely to have much impact on Russia's fossil fuel exports. But it sounds like there's sufficient economic worry to prompt action.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-b ... 807485.htm

[jimbob]

Not going well for Russia economically - so many Western companies are exiting their investments there (including big-hitters like BP and Shell) that they've had to ban them taking their money out. I assume that in turn can have knock-on consequences.

I assume they're just selling those investments to people in less scrupulous jurisdictions, and that in isolation they're unlikely to have much impact on Russia's fossil fuel exports. But it sounds like there's sufficient economic worry to prompt action.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-b ... 807485.htm

It highlights Putin's miscalculation and that means those around him might think a coup is a good idea.

[EACLucifer]

Not going well for Russia economically - so many Western companies are exiting their investments there (including big-hitters like BP and Shell) that they've had to ban them taking their money out. I assume that in turn can have knock-on consequences.

I assume they're just selling those investments to people in less scrupulous jurisdictions, and that in isolation they're unlikely to have much impact on Russia's fossil fuel exports. But it sounds like there's sufficient economic worry to prompt action.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-b ... 807485.htm

It highlights Putin's miscalculation and that means those around him might think a coup is a good idea.

Putin's political appeal was always "at least he saved us from the nineties". That's evaporating in front of our eyes. Perhaps someone is planning a political pitch of "at least he saved us from Putin's misadventure"?

[Woodchopper]

Respected open source analyst has given up trying to document Russian equipment losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 85127?s=21


There’s a remarkable number of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks which just seem to have been abandoned by their crew.