WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am
According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.
I think there's now a question about whether Putin might get deposed, which wasn't there a couple of months ago. So, maybe 25% chance of him losing power.
WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am
According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.
Never ask "Is Dominic Raab stupid enough to...", for the answer is always yes.
I doubt anyone deposing him would risk leaving him alive, as an alive Putin could potentially be freed before he ever got to the Hague, and there's no way he'd ever end up there unless deposed.
WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am
According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.
Never ask "Is Dominic Raab stupid enough to...", for the answer is always yes.
I doubt anyone deposing him would risk leaving him alive, as an alive Putin could potentially be freed before he ever got to the Hague, and there's no way he'd ever end up there unless deposed.
indeed - that's why I meant by "very briefly"
jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:14 am
I think there's now a question about whether Putin might get deposed, which wasn't there a couple of months ago. So, maybe 25% chance of him losing power.
WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am
According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.
Never ask "Is Dominic Raab stupid enough to...", for the answer is always yes.
I doubt anyone deposing him would risk leaving him alive, as an alive Putin could potentially be freed before he ever got to the Hague, and there's no way he'd ever end up there unless deposed.
indeed - that's why I meant by "very briefly"
jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:14 am
I think there's now a question about whether Putin might get deposed, which wasn't there a couple of months ago. So, maybe 25% chance of him losing power.
But he'd not be in prison except very briefly.
I posted mine before I'd seen yours, but we're clearly on the same page here.
bjn wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:36 am
We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.
Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:17 am
You see lots of maps showing areas of Russian control in Ukraine.
This is probably the most accurate as the Russian invaders have kept to the major roads and haven’t attempted to control the countryside. They basically control a section of road while their forces are driving on it. Hence the many videos of Ukrainian farmers towing away abandoned Russian military vehicles.
As mentioned before the invasion, if Russia is to try to control large parts of Ukrainian territory it’s going to have to allocate a lot of troops to do that. It may have to if it faces unsustainable losses to its supply convoys from Ukrainian ambushes.However Russia doesn’t have enough troops in the theatre to do that and also take Kyiv and other major cities. If it’s going to try it’ll have to transfer in large numbers of additional troops, which will probably entail calling up reserves.
Someone somewhere observed a while back it was as if they were attempting blitzkrieg but forgot everything except the first echelon. In blitzkrieg/deep battle/manouevre warfare, the first echelon punches a bunch of holes in the line and races forward, bypassing strongly held positions in order to get at the adversary's rear, so as to isolate those that have been bypassed. Second and third echelons then assault those bypassed strongpoints and secure the areas that have been captured.
The Russians got the first bit right, but they didn't bother with the rest. Sure, they penetrated the Ukrainian frontline, but they effectively penetrated their own frontline in the process. That's left their supply lines extremely vulnerable. When you see a map showing shaded areas supposedly under Russian control, it's probably better to view it as places the Russians have crossed. They haven't taken the time to ensure that area is not filled with Ukrainian regular forces, special forces, territorials and angry farmers armed with looted weapons.
An example would be Chernihiv. The Russians passed Chernihiv in the first day or two. Russian convoys around Chernihiv are getting hit regularly, and it's hardly the only example.
The entire concept of VDV, Russian paratroopers makes total sense if we consider that they are not so much soldiers as the riot police. They don't need to fight other regular armies, they need to suppress disorganised mutinies and protests.
Since paratroopers are the shock troops of regime, they absolutely need to look scary to scare off any mutineers. Their entire legendary status is one huge psyop. That's not a secret, really well-trained forces such as those of GRU consider these guys to be fraudsters.
...
Let's be honest, Kremlin sees Ukraine as a rebel province. The very existence of this country is mutiny. And if you need to suppress a riot, you send the riot police. So Putin sent there paratroopers and they were completely routed. Because they didn't expect organised resistance.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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bjn wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:36 am
We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.
Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.
I gave via the DEC as the UK government is matching donations up to £20M and it is setup for giftaid, which means it's probably the most effective for UK taxpayers.
Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am
I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?
you're forgetting the universal attitude of gert orf moi larrrnd
Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am
I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?
you're forgetting the universal attitude of gert orf moi larrrnd
... which is trumped by the universal attitude of <looks around> "we'll 'ave that on the way oom if ther's no-one about"
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...
Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am
I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?
you're forgetting the universal attitude of gert orf moi larrrnd
... which is trumped by the universal attitude of <looks around> "we'll 'ave that on the way oom if ther's no-one about"
I wouldn't like to speculate on whether that means someone is Russia is lining the pockets of someone in Eritrea or it's for broader political reasons.
Bear in mind too that there were quite a lot of African abstentions.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
This, about 50 seconds in isn't likely to help Putin seem strong and in command of the situation - or even what he's supposed to do in his own scripted TV appearance.
jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 5:20 pm
This, about 50 seconds in isn't likely to help Putin seem strong and in command of the situation - or even what he's supposed to do in his own scripted TV appearance.
Worrying mention earlier in the week by Russian media that the USA have lost control of chemical weapons facilities in Ukraine. On pm an analyst said that suggested the Russians are preparing to use them, the mention on USA in that context a few days earlier will give them the pretext.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
I bought iodine tablets today. They only had "supplement"-type ones, but the pharmacist told me that next week they will be getting some high-dose ones of the kind that might be prescribed for thyroid issues. He didn't say if there had been an uptick in demand.
Basically I am assuming that it is now more likely than not (with the less-than-half representing the situation where someone bumps off Putin) that there will be a strategic nuclear exchange with several hundred million Europeans ending up dead in the next 3-6 months. If I survived that then I don't know if I would want to go on living. But it would seem silly to die of radiation poisoning (and yes, I know that iodine won't be the only thing I'll need) if they only, say, blow up Barcelona and I'm sitting downwind of the fallout.
Mrs sTeamTraen and I have our first trip to the UK for over two years planned for this coming Wednesday, based near London. I've told her I'll take a view on Tuesday on whether I'm going or not. Perhaps it would be better to be closer to ground zero rather than further away.
Something something hammer something something nail
sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:13 pm
I bought iodine tablets today. They only had "supplement"-type ones, but the pharmacist told me that next week they will be getting some high-dose ones of the kind that might be prescribed for thyroid issues. He didn't say if there had been an uptick in demand.
Basically I am assuming that it is now more likely than not (with the less-than-half representing the situation where someone bumps off Putin) that there will be a strategic nuclear exchange with several hundred million Europeans ending up dead in the next 3-6 months. If I survived that then I don't know if I would want to go on living. But it would seem silly to die of radiation poisoning (and yes, I know that iodine won't be the only thing I'll need) if they only, say, blow up Barcelona and I'm sitting downwind of the fallout.
Mrs sTeamTraen and I have our first trip to the UK for over two years planned for this coming Wednesday, based near London. I've told her I'll take a view on Tuesday on whether I'm going or not. Perhaps it would be better to be closer to ground zero rather than further away.
Where Putin's mates have nice houses and their kids are at school?
Google Trends shows seaches for iodine tablets have jumped from less than 10 to around 90 in the last two weeks (don't know what the scale is). Presumably two weeks ago was when Putin suddenly mentioned nukes.
Trinucleus wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:26 pm
Where Putin's mates have nice houses and their kids are at school?
Where Putin's mates are having to abandon their houses and they can't pay the school fees. I didn't think I'd ever advocate for the use of human shields, but I'd be quite happy to have a few oligarchs' teenagers living in the posh houses just across the valley from my balcony.
Something something hammer something something nail
Brightonian wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:30 pm
Google Trends shows seaches for iodine tablets have jumped from less than 10 to around 90 in the last two weeks (don't know what the scale is). Presumably two weeks ago was when Putin suddenly mentioned nukes.
There was a big spike in sales in Finland and Sweden on day 1 of the invasion, but this seems to have been mostly because of the attack on Chernobyl. I think the cloud first headed north back in 1986.
Something something hammer something something nail
sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:13 pm
I bought iodine tablets today. They only had "supplement"-type ones, but the pharmacist told me that next week they will be getting some high-dose ones of the kind that might be prescribed for thyroid issues. He didn't say if there had been an uptick in demand.
Basically I am assuming that it is now more likely than not (with the less-than-half representing the situation where someone bumps off Putin) that there will be a strategic nuclear exchange with several hundred million Europeans ending up dead in the next 3-6 months. If I survived that then I don't know if I would want to go on living. But it would seem silly to die of radiation poisoning (and yes, I know that iodine won't be the only thing I'll need) if they only, say, blow up Barcelona and I'm sitting downwind of the fallout.
Mrs sTeamTraen and I have our first trip to the UK for over two years planned for this coming Wednesday, based near London. I've told her I'll take a view on Tuesday on whether I'm going or not. Perhaps it would be better to be closer to ground zero rather than further away.
Depressing but I’m I don’t think you are necessarily wrong
Brightonian wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:30 pm
Google Trends shows seaches for iodine tablets have jumped from less than 10 to around 90 in the last two weeks (don't know what the scale is). Presumably two weeks ago was when Putin suddenly mentioned nukes.
Of course, two weeks ago the war hadn't even started! Weirdly it seems to have been going on forever.
This coming Tuesday I'm due to travel from Ireland to France for a couple of weeks.
