The Invasion of Ukraine

[Grumble]

OSINT people reporting on a big train of mixed civilian trucks and vans moving through Rostov-on-Don with Z-marks on them, which doesn't say anything good about Russian logistics.

I'm sure they'll do just fine on broken and unpaved roads and among deliberately flooded fields in the muddiest months of the year.

Less than a fortnight in and they are already resorting to co-opting civilian equipment to military use.

Apparently they have military equipment and units have been put on trains in Vladivostok and are being shipped west. Hopefully to get stuck in the mud.

Russians also now spreading propaganda that the Ukrainians are trying to build a plutonium based dirty bomb.

There are only two reasons they would say that: either to attempt to justify the war, or because they plan to do something that would result in radiation levels climbing. I hope to god it’s the first.

[bjn]

Chief of the General Staff of Belarus has resigned. He commented: "Due to the mass refusal to take part in hostilities...Belarusian army does not have the ability to staff any battalion group."
Reported by former Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Nosov

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500407854062354432

Another enthusiastic response from troops on the ground.

[bjn]

There are only two reasons they would say that: either to attempt to justify the war, or because they plan to do something that would result in radiation levels climbing. I hope to god it’s the first.

Same.

[shpalman]

Long twitter thread claiming to be a translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst written by a... racing driver? Interesting though.

[EACLucifer]

Long twitter thread claiming to be a translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst written by a... racing driver? Interesting though.

Christo Grozev, who knows a lot more than me about the FSB, and I expect a lot more than anyone on this forum, thinks it could be genuine.

I'm not aware of any corroboration for the Belarus letter, but it is notable that although they have allowed Russia to attack from their territory, they haven't moved their own troops across the border as of this post.

[Stranger Mouse]

Long twitter thread claiming to be a translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst written by a... racing driver? Interesting though.

Christo Grozev, who knows a lot more than me about the FSB, and I expect a lot more than anyone on this forum, thinks it could be genuine.

I'm not aware of any corroboration for the Belarus letter, but it is notable that although they have allowed Russia to attack from their territory, they haven't moved their own troops across the border as of this post.

Do they need their troops to keep their own population suppressed?

That letter looks a bit fake though.

[causan_dux]

Christo Grozev, who knows a lot more than me about the FSB, and I expect a lot more than anyone on this forum, thinks it could be genuine.

I don't know how much he knows about the FSB - but he apparently knows f.ck all about forgery. Anyone who can write "and it was way longer than a forger would choose to make it (the longer the text, the more risk of making an error)" should be immediately disregarded, either for their naivety, or for their own duplicity.

[EACLucifer]

Christo Grozev, who knows a lot more than me about the FSB, and I expect a lot more than anyone on this forum, thinks it could be genuine.

I don't know how much he knows about the FSB

He got the European Prize for Investigative Journalism for IDing those responsible for the Salisbury Novichok poisonings with Bellingcat, who are pretty good at identifying manipulated media and so on. He mentioned showing it to people who'd worked in FSB before reaching his conclusion. And the logic appears to be sound - more material, more opportunities to get things wrong that stand out to people familiar with what's being aimed for.

I'm personally on the fence on this, I'd add. I'm not a spy, and I don't know any spies, at least not any that I'm aware of

[EACLucifer]

I see the Russians are showing every bit as much honesty, integrity and honour around evacuation lanes for civilians in Ukraine as they did in Syria.

By which I mean the c.nts are shelling them.

[Beaker]

And the evacuation lanes lead to Russia or Belarus.

[TimW]

That makes sense. Get the refugees on to Russian soil and they'll be easier to target. And there won't be any pesky reporters.

[EACLucifer]

And the evacuation lanes lead to Russia or Belarus.

Red Cross reporting that evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined. Not sure if it was a route that was meant to lead to Ukraine or to Russian held territory.

It's being pretty widely reported that Ukraine's turned down the offer of "humanitarian corridors" to Russia, which makes sense, as that's not humanitarian evacuation, it's mass abduction, and that's before considering the degree to which Russia deliberately targets evacuation routes.

[jimbob]

The rouble is continuing to fall

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/tools/c ... uration=5D

for some reason that defaults to one day even though the link is correct for 5 days

[sTeamTraen]

Ive got full strength iodine tablets at home. But they were bought a few years ago.

I appreciate that entropy is a thing, but surely, whatever compound form the iodine is in, it's not going to decay into any other element?

[WFJ]

Ive got full strength iodine tablets at home. But they were bought a few years ago.

I appreciate that entropy is a thing, but surely, whatever compound form the iodine is in, it's not going to decay into any other element?

I've got a jar of iodine salt in the kitchen. In the preparation for nuclear armageddon, is there any benefit to me stocking up on potatoes so I can spend the first few post-apocalyptic weeks eating nothing but piles of salty chips?

[Woodchopper]

Ive got full strength iodine tablets at home. But they were bought a few years ago.

I appreciate that entropy is a thing, but surely, whatever compound form the iodine is in, it's not going to decay into any other element?

Oh haha.

Where I live official advice for many years has been that every household should have a stock of iodine tablets, nine liters of water per person, food, and off grid heating, cooking and lighting facilities. Obviously that's not going to save anyone in an all out nuclear war. But it would come in useful in other scenarios.

[jimbob]

Ive got full strength iodine tablets at home. But they were bought a few years ago.

I appreciate that entropy is a thing, but surely, whatever compound form the iodine is in, it's not going to decay into any other element?

Oh haha.

Where I live official advice for many years has been that every household should have a stock of iodine tablets, nine liters of water per person, food, and off grid heating, cooking and lighting facilities. Obviously that's not going to save anyone in an all out nuclear war. But it would come in useful in other scenarios.

I'm I'm pretty sure thag *is* iodine for water purification and sterilization.

Not iodide for thyroid protection against radioactive iodine

[Woodchopper]

I appreciate that entropy is a thing, but surely, whatever compound form the iodine is in, it's not going to decay into any other element?

Oh haha.

Where I live official advice for many years has been that every household should have a stock of iodine tablets, nine liters of water per person, food, and off grid heating, cooking and lighting facilities. Obviously that's not going to save anyone in an all out nuclear war. But it would come in useful in other scenarios.

I'm I'm pretty sure thag *is* iodine for water purification and sterilization.

Not iodide for thyroid protection against radioactive iodine

Its explicitly for nuclear incidents (see here page three or six.) Though the rest of the equipment is for any kind of emergency.

[EACLucifer]

The British government's attitude to refugees continues to be an absolute disgrace.

[jimbob]

Oh haha.

Where I live official advice for many years has been that every household should have a stock of iodine tablets, nine liters of water per person, food, and off grid heating, cooking and lighting facilities. Obviously that's not going to save anyone in an all out nuclear war. But it would come in useful in other scenarios.

I'm I'm pretty sure thag *is* iodine for water purification and sterilization.

Not iodide for thyroid protection against radioactive iodine

Its explicitly for nuclear incidents (see here page three or six.) Though the rest of the equipment is for any kind of emergency.

Ah so it is "iodide tablets" - there are iodine based water purification approaches as well. And the sterilisation of wounds in an old-school manner.

The British government's attitude to refugees continues to be an absolute disgrace.

From Twitter, and accompanied by an image

"Verily it is easier for an oligarch to enter the house of lords than for a refugee to enter into the Kingdom of Britain"

[EACLucifer]

The British government's attitude to refugees continues to be an absolute disgrace.

"Verily it is easier for an oligarch to enter the house of lords than for a refugee to enter into the Kingdom of Britain"

It's not just Britain they can't get into - it's the Visa office in Poland, where there's a long queue outside with elderly people and kids in it, the temperatures are freezing, and there's room indoors but the staff won't even open the door.

[Stranger Mouse]

The British government's attitude to refugees continues to be an absolute disgrace.

"Verily it is easier for an oligarch to enter the house of lords than for a refugee to enter into the Kingdom of Britain"

It's not just Britain they can't get into - it's the Visa office in Poland, where there's a long queue outside with elderly people and kids in it, the temperatures are freezing, and there's room indoors but the staff won't even open the door.

Yeah but that’s the UK visa office for getting into Britain

[Stranger Mouse]

"Verily it is easier for an oligarch to enter the house of lords than for a refugee to enter into the Kingdom of Britain"

It's not just Britain they can't get into - it's the Visa office in Poland, where there's a long queue outside with elderly people and kids in it, the temperatures are freezing, and there's room indoors but the staff won't even open the door.

Yeah but that’s the UK visa office for getting into Britain

ETA Outsourced private company https://twitter.com/jmpsimor/status/150 ... 63169?s=21

[EACLucifer]

Nathan Ruser's map showing territorial changes over the last week, with Ukrainian advances in blue, Russian advances in red and parts of Ukraine that have been occupied for longer in pink.



He also noted that OSINT people - oryxspioenkop is compiling the definitive list - recorded the loss of a minimum of over a hundred tanks and over a hundred other tracked armoured vehicles and fifteen aircraft. These are losses that are verified from photographs, and almost inevitably an undercount. Losses in personel are occurring too, but are harder to track. Russian equipment losses in this period verified by this method are much higher than Ukrainian ones, too.

[EACLucifer]

For f.ck's sake, America, you are a nuclear power, you alone have a military that could wipe the floor with Russia in a conventional war, and are part of a major defensive alliance. Stop tiptoeing around Putin and holding aid back from Ukraine while his army and airforce butcher civilians.