The Invasion of Ukraine

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Stranger Mouse » Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:05 pm

Kira Rudik doesn’t respond well to being questioned on whether allegations of Ukrainian soldiers shooting Russian captives in the legs will be investigated.

I understand the depth of feeling. If I was Ukrainian I can only imagine the temptation to treat Russian prisoners horribly but this won’t help the international effort.

https://twitter.com/mikejoflondon/statu ... mTnv5BlGxA
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:08 pm

Wall Street Journal reporting that Czech supplied T-72 Tanks and BVP-1 Infantry Fighting Vehicles are already in Ukraine, and that Czechia and Slovakia are considering repairing and refitting Ukrainian equipment on their own soil. That latter one should impact what military aid is considered viable, as instead of having to train crews to do all the maintenance, they only need to train them on field repairs.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Stranger Mouse » Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:08 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:04 pm
There's rumours going round that a Russian helicopter - reportedly a modern Ka-52 (as seen getting schwacked by an anti-tank missile upthread) - has defected.
If that has happened with equipment costing millions I can imagine the individual being a target for novichok style retribution at a later date - although I dare say assassins will find it more difficult to do the foreign travel bit.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:25 pm

Technical thread on Russian military organisation

The short version is that they don't have enough infantry. That means they can't easily do the following;

Hold captured territory - trenches need to be manned

Assault urban areas - tanks are very vulnerable in cities, and anything's a top-attack weapon when fired down from a tall building

Provide a screen to support their tanks - without that, they are much more vulnerable to shoulder launched weapons, and even lurking tanks waiting in camouflaged positions to ambush

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:03 pm

So all they can really do now is blow everything up?
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:06 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:03 pm
So all they can really do now is blow everything up?
Well, they can also advance until they run out of fuel/break down/run out of food.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:16 pm

Choices, choices.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:23 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:03 pm
So all they can really do now is blow everything up?
Unfortunatly they are still capable of causing a lot of damage, and potentially encircling/capturing Ukrainian positions. I don't want to get hopes too high on this. They are very inefficient, and they don't have an easy source of useful infantry, and that does put them at a disadvantage, a huge one, but it alone is not enough to render them helpless in defence.

However, it does mean that if they do encircle Ukrainian positions, they cannot quickly reduce them - that takes infantry - and will be vulnerable to both counterattack to break the encirclement and harassment of their supply lines. They encircled Chernihiv for several weeks, but in the end Chernihiv was relieved, and even encircled the Ukrainians managed to maintain the necessary freedom of operation to operate tank formations.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am

So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:34 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.

Indeed


Putin probably knows he's miscalculated, but he seems to be trying to up the *rhetoric* whilst doing little in retaliation to countries other than Ukraine.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:06 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.
I wasn’t against it but I don’t think that tone is helpful- many people have understandable concerns.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:20 am

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:06 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.
I wasn’t against it but I don’t think that tone is helpful- many people have understandable concerns.
So I made a mistake. I watched Zelenskyy's speech to the UN, including the start of the video presentation. I got about thirty seconds in before I shut it off and started crying uncontrollably. I became overwhelmed with the sense that I didn't really want to be human, because humans did that, and I didn't want to be the same sort of thing as the things that did that. I became ashamed, because I know that I am safe here, far from the conflict, and the people this is being done too have to face it, have to overcome it.

So yeah, I'm really interested in getting tone-policed right now.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:32 am


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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:57 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:20 am
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:06 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.
I wasn’t against it but I don’t think that tone is helpful- many people have understandable concerns.
So I made a mistake. I watched Zelenskyy's speech to the UN, including the start of the video presentation. I got about thirty seconds in before I shut it off and started crying uncontrollably. I became overwhelmed with the sense that I didn't really want to be human, because humans did that, and I didn't want to be the same sort of thing as the things that did that. I became ashamed, because I know that I am safe here, far from the conflict, and the people this is being done too have to face it, have to overcome it.

So yeah, I'm really interested in getting tone-policed right now.
You seem to be following this conflict in much more granular detail than most of the people on this forum. If you're getting so upset about it, it might be worth a break for the sake of your own mental health.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:59 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.
I don't think there was serious opposition in Western governments to supply armored vehicles. Germany announced last week that it would supply them (though not tanks).

The problem with fighter aircraft was more about how to get them to a Ukrainian air base rather than whether to supply them in principle.

Where I do think there is a line is in the supply of long range missiles that could be used to hit targets deep inside Russia.

The problem with European armed forces is that in general they don't have much to give to give. European armed forces have spent the last three decades focusing upon peacekeeping and counter-insurgency. They don't have much equipment suited for war against Russia.

Russia invaded Ukraine with about 1200 tanks. The UK only has 227 tanks in total, Germany has 245, France has 222. Several NATO members (eg the Netherlands) don't have any as a few years ago people assumed that there wouldn't be any need for them.

So lets say that the UK, Germany and France donate 10% of their tanks to Ukraine. We'd be looking at 60 -70 in total, and that would be three different models so the Ukrainians would need three different types of training, maintenance etc. That's far less than the 176 tanks that Ukraine has captured from Russia (ie ones in working order). What the European armed forces could reasonably give isn't going to make a lot of difference. Give more than 10% and they'd be even more worried about their ability to defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (none of which have any tanks).

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:08 am

It would be a good idea to re-equip Ukraine with NATO standard equipment. As mentioned in the other post, European armed forces don't have enough of it. Stocks of arms supplied to Ukraine are already running low.

The actual debate is about the trade off between the quantity of equipment that can be given to Ukraine versus what is needed to equip European armed forces in order to defend NATO members.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:30 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:20 am
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:06 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.
I wasn’t against it but I don’t think that tone is helpful- many people have understandable concerns.
So I made a mistake. I watched Zelenskyy's speech to the UN, including the start of the video presentation. I got about thirty seconds in before I shut it off and started crying uncontrollably. I became overwhelmed with the sense that I didn't really want to be human, because humans did that, and I didn't want to be the same sort of thing as the things that did that. I became ashamed, because I know that I am safe here, far from the conflict, and the people this is being done too have to face it, have to overcome it.

So yeah, I'm really interested in getting tone-policed right now.
Up to you
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:36 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:59 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:26 am
So...uhmmmm...anyone notice Czechia getting nuked? Anyone? Can't see anything from here...

It's almost as if the people who thought supplying heavy/offensive* arms to Ukraine was a step too far were full of sh.t.




*All arms are of course both offensive and defensive - even very offense-biased arms like ballistic missiles can be used to counter-attack against an offensive, while inherently defensive systems like Iron Dome could potentially be used to defend an offensive against counter-attack.
I don't think there was serious opposition in Western governments to supply armored vehicles. Germany announced last week that it would supply them (though not tanks).

The problem with fighter aircraft was more about how to get them to a Ukrainian air base rather than whether to supply them in principle.

Where I do think there is a line is in the supply of long range missiles that could be used to hit targets deep inside Russia.

The problem with European armed forces is that in general they don't have much to give to give. European armed forces have spent the last three decades focusing upon peacekeeping and counter-insurgency. They don't have much equipment suited for war against Russia.

Russia invaded Ukraine with about 1200 tanks. The UK only has 227 tanks in total, Germany has 245, France has 222. Several NATO members (eg the Netherlands) don't have any as a few years ago people assumed that there wouldn't be any need for them.

So lets say that the UK, Germany and France donate 10% of their tanks to Ukraine. We'd be looking at 60 -70 in total, and that would be three different models so the Ukrainians would need three different types of training, maintenance etc. That's far less than the 176 tanks that Ukraine has captured from Russia (ie ones in working order). What the European armed forces could reasonably give isn't going to make a lot of difference. Give more than 10% and they'd be even more worried about their ability to defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (none of which have any tanks).
In terms of transferring jets, there's Uzhhorod International Airport - if the concern is armed flights into Ukraine, then they'd scarcely be in Ukrainian airspace for a moment before they landed, and after that it's an armed flight from Ukrainian territory.

In terms of European kit, Germany is currently blocking the transfer of a hundred or so Marders that are surplus to German requirements. There's other equipment more or less awaiting disposal, including a lot of Iraq/Afghan war kit. We're not just talking weapons, armies need so much more than just weapons, and all terrain vehicles, especially armoured ones, are really important.

In terms of NATO as a whole, there are a hell of a lot of American tanks currently mothballed, but it's not just tanks that are needed. It's artillery, MLRS, drones...Russia is not going to achieve much against NATO right now, not with the kicking it is taking, not with the losses it has taken. A small dip in western stock levels between stuff being sent to Ukraine and replacement stock being produced is preferable to a situation where the war goes on longer, and ultimately more is needed than would have been if it had been supplied in a timely fashion.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:37 am

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:30 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:20 am
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:06 am


I wasn’t against it but I don’t think that tone is helpful- many people have understandable concerns.
So I made a mistake. I watched Zelenskyy's speech to the UN, including the start of the video presentation. I got about thirty seconds in before I shut it off and started crying uncontrollably. I became overwhelmed with the sense that I didn't really want to be human, because humans did that, and I didn't want to be the same sort of thing as the things that did that. I became ashamed, because I know that I am safe here, far from the conflict, and the people this is being done too have to face it, have to overcome it.

So yeah, I'm really interested in getting tone-policed right now.
Up to you
To be clear I'm not particularly talking about people on this forum here - I'm talking about governments unwilling to conduct arms transfers that are technically viable but need political approval.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:40 am

These were the earlier responses from 10 days ago when I wondered about it.

There was a bit of a discussion following these.

Seems to me we might as well use it all now, in Ukraine, because any attack on Nato looks totally implausible.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:28 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:20 pm
NATO does not have infinite armaments.

We will run out of anti tank, Stingers etc, same as Russia will. No idea when.
The west has some pretty deep stockpiles of weapons - for example Britain is planning to mothball seventy or so Challenger 2s, while the remainder are to be upgraded. Other weapons are currently in production, eg NLAWs, but it is clear that production must be stepped up wherever possible, to ensure that weapons can be sent without depleting western resources too much, and if Russia collapses and we end up with more than we thought we needed, we can always stash them in Taiwan.
bjn wrote:
Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:44 am
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:20 pm
NATO does not have infinite armaments.

We will run out of anti tank, Stingers etc, same as Russia will. No idea when.
The Unites State’s defence budget is approximately 3/4 of the entire pre war Russian GDP. They have huge stockpiles of well maintained ordinance and weapons systems. Add in Europe, where NLAWs and AT-4s are rolling off production lines. Meanwhile the Russians have had to stop tank production because of sanctions. When the Russians run low on the latest and greatest kit (which they are losing at a higher ratio than they posses in their inventory), they’ll have to drag out more old, rusting, poorly maintained equipment, which will have a much harder time than the new shiny stuff that also got destroyed. The Russians are going to run out first.

Before that they will probably run out of soldiers vaguely capable of carrying out the fight.
Last edited by lpm on Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:44 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:41 am


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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:49 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:40 am
bjn wrote:
Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:44 am
Before that they will probably run out of soldiers vaguely capable of carrying out the fight.
BJN's point here is the key one. It looks like they are already throwing units pulled from the north into the east, without so much as a day to recuperate between fighting, travelling, and fighting again. From a military perspective, it's utter madness, but it seems that VVP's need for some kind of victory before the 9th of May outweighs such military considerations as "shattered units are extremely bad at fighting" or "we haven't got any reserves so we're sending in exhausted and depleted formations". Russia just does not have the reserves to sustain fighting. They committed most of their army to this, and the biggest part of that committment just had its arse kicked back over the border. The time for pressure is now - if its done right now, it will not need to be done again.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:12 am

From that thread, it still doesn't look like an immediate health risk to the troops. Unless they looked at the elephant's foot as an interesting tourist attraction.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:13 am

jimbob wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:12 am
From that thread, it still doesn't look like an immediate health risk to the troops. Unless they looked at the elephant's foot as an interesting tourist attraction.
Probably not an acute threat, no, my reaction was more to it being something they really did at all - one of the main sources for the claims prior to this imagery coming out was a widely shared by extraordinarily dubious Polish far right twitter account.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:23 am

Russia reportedly deliberately impeding Ukrainian agriculture, including mining fields

So not content with their existing long list of crimes against humanity, they're now aiming for Holodomor 2? Or is this just an attempt to drive up wheat prices to bring in more cash from poor countries in the middle east, in which case brace yourself for Arab Spring 2.

Relatedly, the bastards have been using little plastic airdropped mines that look horribly like children's toys.

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