The Invasion of Ukraine

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dyqik
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:13 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:37 pm
Putin's awarded one of the units responsible for Bucha the honourary title of "guards". Given they got their arses kicked back across the border, what are they being rewarded for if not the war crimes?
The cynic in me asks: "How much of an honour it is depends on what they are going to be ordered to guard, doesn't it?"

I could absolutely believe that what used to be an honourary title could become a sign of punishment from a leader that believes themselves to be sufficiently Machiavellian.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:33 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:13 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:37 pm
Putin's awarded one of the units responsible for Bucha the honourary title of "guards". Given they got their arses kicked back across the border, what are they being rewarded for if not the war crimes?
The cynic in me asks: "How much of an honour it is depends on what they are going to be ordered to guard, doesn't it?"

I could absolutely believe that what used to be an honourary title could become a sign of punishment from a leader that believes themselves to be sufficiently Machiavellian.
It could well be just for media consumption - awarding a "guards" designation, putting medals on a soldiers, all just to try and convince Russians - who are already subject to brainwashing media worse even than Fox News - things are going well when they are going profoundly not well.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by shpalman » Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:36 pm

Putin's long table was made in the bit of Italy close to where I live.

Cantù as a city is very strong in furniture making (and basketball, weirdly).
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:18 pm

Two high profile fires in Russia

The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant and the Aerospace Defence Research Institute in Tver - the latter has been blamed on poor wiring.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:44 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:18 pm
Two high profile fires in Russia

The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant and the Aerospace Defence Research Institute in Tver - the latter has been blamed on poor wiring.
Missiles do tend to f.ck up your wiring
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:02 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:44 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:18 pm
Two high profile fires in Russia

The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant and the Aerospace Defence Research Institute in Tver - the latter has been blamed on poor wiring.
Missiles do tend to f.ck up your wiring
Tver's further north than Moscow. Not going to be missiles, could be arson, but could be Russians as easily as it could be anyone else. Could genuinely be shoddy wiring.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:05 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:18 pm
Two high profile fires in Russia

The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant and the Aerospace Defence Research Institute in Tver - the latter has been blamed on poor wiring.
If we're playing 'could be's , it could be something like the Stuxnet virus - force machinery to over-run and overheat.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:17 pm

Twitter thread summarising a timeline of problems with German arms support. I've been able to verify some, but not all of the claims - so much German press is paywalled now, and my extremely limited German is not remotely up to paywall evasion

1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
4) Germany's defense industry leakes the list to Ukraine's ambassador.
5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work.
6) The defense industry denies this and leakes the list to the press.
7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.
8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks.
9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer.
10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.
11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine.
12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.
13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military.
14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.
15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz.
16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.
17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.

It's the dishonesty of his press conference the other day that got me, pretending that other nations were taking the same approach even as they sent heavy and effective equipment.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:02 pm
Grumble wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:44 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:18 pm
Two high profile fires in Russia

The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant and the Aerospace Defence Research Institute in Tver - the latter has been blamed on poor wiring.
Missiles do tend to f.ck up your wiring
Tver's further north than Moscow. Not going to be missiles, could be arson, but could be Russians as easily as it could be anyone else. Could genuinely be shoddy wiring.

I'm thinking possibly a way of cleaning one's embezzlement. "Oh sorry, all that expensive equipment that I definitely bought has all been burned to ashes"
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:32 am

jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:02 pm
Grumble wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:44 pm


Missiles do tend to f.ck up your wiring
Tver's further north than Moscow. Not going to be missiles, could be arson, but could be Russians as easily as it could be anyone else. Could genuinely be shoddy wiring.

I'm thinking possibly a way of cleaning one's embezzlement. "Oh sorry, all that expensive equipment that I definitely bought has all been burned to ashes"
Attack, sabotage, coverup in anticipation of an audit or misfortune enhanced by incompetence. If the Ukrainians had a hand in it I suspect they wouldn't be shy about claiming it, and as they're not obviously urgent targets I tend to doubt it unless they do. So that leaves the covering up of obvious corruption or suspicious coincidence.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:34 am

Martin Y wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:32 am
jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:02 pm


Tver's further north than Moscow. Not going to be missiles, could be arson, but could be Russians as easily as it could be anyone else. Could genuinely be shoddy wiring.

I'm thinking possibly a way of cleaning one's embezzlement. "Oh sorry, all that expensive equipment that I definitely bought has all been burned to ashes"
Attack, sabotage, coverup in anticipation of an audit or misfortune enhanced by incompetence. If the Ukrainians had a hand in it I suspect they wouldn't be shy about claiming it, and as they're not obviously urgent targets I tend to doubt it unless they do. So that leaves the covering up of obvious corruption or suspicious coincidence.
Don't forget confirmation bias.

We're now looking at Russia
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:51 am

Martin Y wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:32 am
jimbob wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:02 pm


Tver's further north than Moscow. Not going to be missiles, could be arson, but could be Russians as easily as it could be anyone else. Could genuinely be shoddy wiring.

I'm thinking possibly a way of cleaning one's embezzlement. "Oh sorry, all that expensive equipment that I definitely bought has all been burned to ashes"
Attack, sabotage, coverup in anticipation of an audit or misfortune enhanced by incompetence. If the Ukrainians had a hand in it I suspect they wouldn't be shy about claiming it, and as they're not obviously urgent targets I tend to doubt it unless they do. So that leaves the covering up of obvious corruption or suspicious coincidence.
Ukraine aren't claiming things that are obviously Ukraine, could only be Ukraine, and are completely and utterly justified, as they appear to have a policy of not discussing certain military matters at all. This has applied to all their attacks on Russian soil, and even the attack that sank Saratov and damaged Caesar Kunikov, where there is footage now of what appears to be the Tochka-U submunitions going off.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:58 pm

Putin does not look like a strongman with a good future.

As an aside, the tiny table is even more ridiculous than the huge one
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:12 pm

Slouched and seems to be holding the table for support - apparently has done the same in other pictures - hence some concerns about his health.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:24 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:12 pm
Slouched and seems to be holding the table for support - apparently has done the same in other pictures - hence some concerns about his health.
I have some concerns about his health.

He still seems to be breathing, unfortunately.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Martin Y
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:30 pm

The other guy is poised like he knows if he seems to be winning the game of invisible chess Putin will press the little button under the table and his chair will tip back into the mutant sea bass tank.

Seriously though, they've clearly set up that little table for the photo op, right in front of an actual desk. Didn't they think of at least trying to make it look like this is how the office is normally used? It just makes it more obviously staged and awkward.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:32 pm

He's sitting the way I do when my back spasms get bad, meaning I may have to revise my "never wish this on even my worst enemy" position re: back spasms

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:38 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:32 pm
He's sitting the way I do when my back spasms get bad, meaning I may have to revise my "never wish this on even my worst enemy" position re: back spasms
So it's an ill wind and all that.

But now I'm fixating on how close Putin's chair has to be so he can slump back and yet still grasp the table. And the table is centred on the desk behind. So how many people and how much shuffling did it take to install Putin in his chair and then get him and the table into the right positions, I wonder. Who would have thought so much effort spent on making Putin look like he's relaxed and in full command could be so entirely wasted?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:40 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:32 pm
He's sitting the way I do when my back spasms get bad, meaning I may have to revise my "never wish this on even my worst enemy" position re: back spasms
That's a nice thought.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Aitch » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:47 pm

Possibly holding on to prevent muscle tremors/spasms. Parkinsons?
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:11 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:30 pm
The other guy is poised like he knows if he seems to be winning the game of invisible chess Putin will press the little button under the table and his chair will tip back into the mutant sea bass tank.

Seriously though, they've clearly set up that little table for the photo op, right in front of an actual desk. Didn't they think of at least trying to make it look like this is how the office is normally used? It just makes it more obviously staged and awkward.
He sat like that throughout the meeting: https://youtu.be/qOp24A3DCYE

It wasn't just for the time it takes to take a photo.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:15 pm

Aitch wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:47 pm
Possibly holding on to prevent muscle tremors/spasms. Parkinsons?
There's other video out on teh interwebs of Putin having what look like involuntary movements his arms or legs. I don't think there is much point trying to diagnose him though. Could be due to many things.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:15 pm
Aitch wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:47 pm
Possibly holding on to prevent muscle tremors/spasms. Parkinsons?
There's other video out on teh interwebs of Putin having what look like involuntary movements his arms or legs. I don't think there is much point trying to diagnose him though. Could be due to many things.
And approximately none of them will have any direct effect on his behaviour.

Putin's problem's not that is ill, it's that he's an imperialist revanchist who considers genocide preferable to seeing formerly colonised people enjoy self-determination. If he think's he's not got long left, it might push him to create a memorable legacy, but what he considers a good legacy is all about his nationalist ideology.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Fri Apr 22, 2022 4:27 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:38 pm
... But now I'm fixating on how close Putin's chair has to be so he can slump back and yet still grasp the table. [...] So how many people and how much shuffling did it take to install Putin in his chair and then get him and the table into the right positions, I wonder. ...
Okay I take that back having watched the video now where we see Putin sit down and pull his own chair in close to the table. His posture is odd though. Keeps his head down, which doesn't look very guy-in-charge.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:13 pm

And reports of another fire in an aerospace facility in Russia. Korolyov
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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