Boris: What next?

[jimbob]

But this thread looks accurate

https://twitter.com/garius/status/15449 ... jJN0yK8LzA

Given his appointments so far.

So a few serious thoughts before I run to a meeting. Based on the fact that we live in the literal worst timeline...

...how does Boris Johnson make this EVEN WORSE?

Answer: fill the vacant cabinet roles. /1

lot of discussion then

https://twitter.com/garius/status/15449 ... jJN0yK8LzA

Why is this EVEN WORSE than, say Raab ending up in charge?

Well because we'd be looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked. AND ALSO a cabinet full of even more overpromoted wannabes WHO ARE NOW FIGHTING FOR THE LEADERSHIP

[Little waster]

He had a point.

[EACLucifer]

By coincidence today Johnson passed the length of tenure of the other wartime Conservative PM he'll likely be grouped together with forever more.

That's actually terribly unfair on Neville Chamberlain, for all that was wrong with him.

[Opti]

Theresa May cleverly putting the boot in at her address to the Institute for Government.
I can't recall seeing her smile so much.

[Little waster]

By coincidence today Johnson passed the length of tenure of the other wartime Conservative PM he'll likely be grouped together with forever more.

That's actually terribly unfair on Neville Chamberlain, for all that was wrong with him.

I know but the cosmic alignment of the guy who wanted to be the modern Churchill being ousted almost to the day of Chamberlain's departure, was too delicious to pass up.

The fact his "Norway Debate" equivalent was him stupidly lying once again, this time in the defence of a known sexual predator mate of his, just underlines how far short of even the minimally acceptable standard of a PM's behaviour Johnson always was.

[Little waster]

Theresa May cleverly putting the boot in at her address to the Institute for Government.
I can't recall seeing her smile so much.

I'm expecting her to leave the stage doing her trademark Maybot dance ... and then head straight back to 'Spoons.

[tom p]

Pleased to see my cynicism was at least partly misfounded, though.

But I want him out of office, not just out of the party leader spot.

I want him out of the atmosphere. Whether that's being fired into space on the B rocket or in an airtight concrete bunker, I don't mind (although I suppose the latter would do less damage to the environment)

[discovolante]

You've got to hand it to the guy, there's not many people who could turn such a humiliating kicking into a victory speech, even Trump didn't manage that. Almost admirable.

[discovolante]

'Them's the breaks'

[Opti]

How long will he stay on the backbenches?

Should a poll be conducted?

[tenchboy]

I dont trust this. Wanting to remain PM makes me think he has a "Plan B" of some sort.

A B and Q lorry has just delivered a load of bricks and cement to number 10

No bags of sand or readymix mortar?
Useless c.nt dun't even know how to build a f.cking brick wall.
c.nt.

[Little waster]

Well that was ... dreadful.

No contrition, no shame, no admission of errors, just the same stale list of old reheated lies, mindless Boosterism and deluded promises of better things to come but always tomorrow, which are why we wanted shot of him in the first place, he really is "Britain Trump".

TBH I didn't expect anything else.

When May went you at least felt a twinge of sympathy, while Johnson droned on all I could think was "what is the earliest socially-acceptable time I can start my celebratory drinking?"

[tom p]

Yes, Johnson can put himself forward as a candidate. Needs 8 backers though, which he no longer has.

Plausible choices:

Wallace
Mordaunt
Sunak
Truss
Gove
Raab
Tugendhat
Hunt
Zahawi
Javid
Patel
Barclay
Badenoch

He actually needs 18 backers.
Reckon he could reach 8 with the very worst of the dregs

[Opti]

You've got to hand it to the guy, there's not many people who could turn such a humiliating kicking into a victory speech, even Trump didn't manage that. Almost admirable.

Well yeah ... but he didn't say "I'm resigning" nor did he lay out a timescale. Classic gaslighting.

[jimbob]

I'm not typing out the list of implausible candidates. It'd be longer than the time I posted loads of names on the Get Well Soon Boris Mate thread and got accused of vandalism.

Swayne has said he's backing Braverman

[IvanV]

Yes, Johnson can put himself forward as a candidate. Needs 8 backers though, which he no longer has.

He is not allowed to stand according to Clause 2 of Schedule 2 of the Constitution of the Conservative Party. It says, quite clearly,

2. A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent
Leadership election.

This is one of the few things we do know for sure, well reasonably sure. Only a few other rules about leadership election are set out in that schedule. The rest of the detailed rules for the election are rewritten each time there is an election, and is not a public document. This HC page and document sets out some facts and history. HC Library Research Briefings - Con leadership elections.

Of course, they could change the constitution, they have done that quite regularly over time, though it would take rather longer than changing the rules of the 1922 committee which can be changed as soon as later today if they want to.

In the past, there were leadership elections involving the standing leader or PM, such as Mrs Thatcher. But that is now ruled out in the party constitution.

[Bird on a Fire]

Well that was ... dreadful.

No contrition, no shame, no admission of errors, just the same stale list of old reheated lies, mindless Boosterism and deluded promises of better things to come but always tomorrow, which are why we wanted shot of him in the first place, he really is "Britain Trump".

TBH I didn't expect anything else.

When May went you at least felt a twinge of sympathy, while Johnson droned on all I could think was "what is the earliest socially-acceptable time I can start my celebratory drinking?"

Already started

[IvanV]

I do wonder who is actually a minister now. I think there is a formal stage of appointments and resignations, at least at sufficiently senior level, which has probably not been gone through yet. I suspect what we have heard in the last 28 hours or so are only really statements of intent, not formal appointments and resignations, at least in some cases. There's been so many of them coming so thick and fast, I doubt they have all been formally processed. But we shall see.

[discovolante]

Yes, Johnson can put himself forward as a candidate. Needs 8 backers though, which he no longer has.

He is not allowed to stand according to Clause 2 of Schedule 2 of the Constitution of the Conservative Party. It says, quite clearly,

2. A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent
Leadership election.

This is one of the few things we do know for sure, well reasonably sure. Only a few other rules about leadership election are set out in that schedule. The rest of the detailed rules for the election are rewritten each time there is an election, and is not a public document. This HC page and document sets out some facts and history. HC Library Research Briefings - Con leadership elections.

Of course, they could change the constitution, they have done that quite regularly over time, though it would take rather longer than changing the rules of the 1922 committee which can be changed as soon as later today if they want to.

In the past, there were leadership elections involving the standing leader or PM, such as Mrs Thatcher. But that is now ruled out in the party constitution.

It feels like the only thing he said that could be interpreted as resignation as leader is 'it makes me sad to be giving up the best job in the world'. Given that Sadiq Khan has repeatedly said that being Mayor of London is the best job in the world, and Johnson is a former MoL, it seems entirely possible that he might claim he accidentally got the pages of one of his old speeches mixed in with this one.

[dyqik]

Well that was ... dreadful.

No contrition, no shame, no admission of errors, just the same stale list of old reheated lies, mindless Boosterism and deluded promises of better things to come but always tomorrow, which are why we wanted shot of him in the first place, he really is "Britain Trump".

TBH I didn't expect anything else.

When May went you at least felt a twinge of sympathy, while Johnson droned on all I could think was "what is the earliest socially-acceptable time I can start my celebratory drinking?"

Already started

Last night I was glad to be five hours behind the UK, as news rolled in. This morning, not so much.

[jimbob]

Yes, Johnson can put himself forward as a candidate. Needs 8 backers though, which he no longer has.

He is not allowed to stand according to Clause 2 of Schedule 2 of the Constitution of the Conservative Party. It says, quite clearly,

2. A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent
Leadership election.

This is one of the few things we do know for sure, well reasonably sure. Only a few other rules about leadership election are set out in that schedule. The rest of the detailed rules for the election are rewritten each time there is an election, and is not a public document. This HC page and document sets out some facts and history. HC Library Research Briefings - Con leadership elections.

Of course, they could change the constitution, they have done that quite regularly over time, though it would take rather longer than changing the rules of the 1922 committee which can be changed as soon as later today if they want to.

In the past, there were leadership elections involving the standing leader or PM, such as Mrs Thatcher. But that is now ruled out in the party constitution.

It feels like the only thing he said that could be interpreted as resignation as leader is 'it makes me sad to be giving up the best job in the world'. Given that Sadiq Khan has repeatedly said that being Mayor of London is the best job in the world, and Johnson is a former MoL, it seems entirely possible that he might claim he accidentally got the pages of one of his old speeches mixed in with this one.

Yes, he's probably thinking that if he stays on, he can get this unpleasentness behind him and possibly mess up the potential successors, so without having *technically* resigned, the membership will sweep him back to power with a strong mandate and deselection of his rivals

[philbo]

I thought there might be some fun viewpoints about all this here.. but my, there was a lot to catch up on. Thanks to the war buffs for insights on Ukraine, not sure I've read all of it, but some interesting stuff.

Not convinced Boris is going to leave when the time comes: he has resigned as party leader, but not PM. A lot of this still applies: https://davidallengreen.com/2022/07/wha ... to-resign/

..I'm not the only one who thinks so. Odd to be on the same page as Cummings https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/ ... 4572430337

My former MP, Steve Baker has delusions of adequacy; but given the huge dearth of talent available, I guess he actually has a chance. Which is kinda scary. Braverman as "leader" seems about as plausible as Medvedev as leader with Putin as his PM.

Odd aside: back in 2020, I thought suggesting Trump was trying a "coup de tw.t" might have been original. I was very wrong, even back then.

[EACLucifer]

Some appropriate background music on this interview

[lpm]

Parliament summer recess begins two weeks today, 21 July 2022.

Presumably they want the MP stage to be done by then. A lot of whittling down, though, to go from the 179 announced candidates to 2.

The time frame in 2019 was:

24 May 2019: May announces she will resign as leader 7 June

10 June: nominations officially open

13 June: first ballot

20 June: whittled down to two, Johnson and Hunt

23 July: membership vote counted, Johnson announced winner

24 July: May resigns as PM, Johnson appointed PM

So by my reckoning, if they do indeed get down to the two by 21 July, we can have a new PM on 23 August. Hence I'm not sure why Johnson imagines himself staying until October.

And of course the 2016 timeframe was even shorter. Cameron announced his resignation as leader on 24 June, the whittling down was over within 17 days when only Theresa May was left standing. She became leader on 11 July and Prime Minister on 13 July.

I'm getting increasingly annoyed at TV "journalists", plus the usual twitter morons, talking about 3 months or October.

Last time it took exactly 2 months. That would be 7 September. The obvious date to crown the new PM and start her honeymoon period is when House returns from recess, 5 September. There's simply no chance it'll be significantly later than that.

[lpm]

But this thread looks accurate

https://twitter.com/garius/status/15449 ... jJN0yK8LzA

Given his appointments so far.

So a few serious thoughts before I run to a meeting. Based on the fact that we live in the literal worst timeline...

...how does Boris Johnson make this EVEN WORSE?

Answer: fill the vacant cabinet roles. /1

lot of discussion then

https://twitter.com/garius/status/15449 ... jJN0yK8LzA

Why is this EVEN WORSE than, say Raab ending up in charge?

Well because we'd be looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked. AND ALSO a cabinet full of even more overpromoted wannabes WHO ARE NOW FIGHTING FOR THE LEADERSHIP

I can't believe the stupidity of that thread. And can't be arsed to go through the errors. Isn't this the train guy, talks about steam engines and stuff?