Interesting@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
Blyatskrieg
Re: Blyatskrieg
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
There's a lot of chatter about ATACMS right now, including comments from Reznikov that suggest that he at least thinks there's a realistic chance of getting it.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pmhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA
Interesting@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
In the meantime, ammo depots have gone up in occupied Kadiivka and occupied Nova Kakhova overnight, and something went up in Kursk Oblast, some distance from the Ukrainian border, with the latter attack more likely to be a Tochka-U or one of the Tu-143 drone based improvised cruise missiles.
- Woodchopper
- Princess POW
- Posts: 7144
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am
Re: Blyatskrieg
It’s closer to the Kerch bridge. Could be to move air defence assets there to protect it.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pmhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA
Interesting@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Also possible. And that moves them away from western Crimea, too. While a lot of people - me included - have emphasised ATACMS as a way to attack the Kerch bridge, it's utility goes far beyond that. Occupied Crimea is used as a base for a lot of Russian aviation, for example. Also, if the Black Sea Fleet is in Novorossiysk, it makes it harder for them to interdict grain traffic and adds substantial sailing time to missile operations against Ukraine's south coast.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:52 amIt’s closer to the Kerch bridge. Could be to move air defence assets there to protect it.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pmhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA
Interesting@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
In other news, Russian air defences appear to have schwacked one of their own Su-34 bombers over occupied eastern Ukraine. Perhaps they are getting jumpy after the apparently successful Ukrainian attack on Kursk oblast?
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Or it could be nothing. Looks like there's a number of key ships still in Sevastopol.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:52 amIt’s closer to the Kerch bridge. Could be to move air defence assets there to protect it.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pmhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA
Interesting@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Jet going down reportedly over Nova Kakhovka
Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources are claiming this as a Russian Sukhoi-35. Ukrainians are claiming their air defences got it (plausible in the area) and pro-Russian accounts are claiming Russians got it in an act of friendly fire (also plausible)
Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources are claiming this as a Russian Sukhoi-35. Ukrainians are claiming their air defences got it (plausible in the area) and pro-Russian accounts are claiming Russians got it in an act of friendly fire (also plausible)
Re: Blyatskrieg
Wagner Group on HIMARS
Like Scout said in one of the latest broadcasts – “The bulk of our problems is due to us f*cking lying to ourselves!”
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Speaking of HIMARS, yesterday M31 rocket strikes took out a Repellant-1 electronic warfare system right next to the dam at Nova Kakhovka* and an expensive, rare and capable Podlet-K1 complex consisting of radar, generator and command vehicle on the south coast of Kherson oblast.jimbob wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:39 pmWagner Group on HIMARSLike Scout said in one of the latest broadcasts – “The bulk of our problems is due to us f*cking lying to ourselves!”
In addition, something knocked a few holes in the deck of the Antonivsky Road Bridge - one of three crossings of the Dnipro in Russian held territory, and the Russians say it was HIMARS. This looks more like an attempt to slow down the use of the Antonivsky Road Bridge than to destroy it outright. To completely isolate the Russians north/west of the Dnipro would require the destruction of the bridge over the dam at Nova Kakhovka, which would be a devlishly tricky thing to do without endangering the dam.
Meanwhile footage has emerged that reportedly shows M270s in action. There's clearly rocket trails in the sky, and a lot of them, and they are clearly GMLRS trails as they show signs of manoevring after launch, but the launchers themselves aren't visible. The Americans, commending ZSU's successful use of HIMARS, are going to send more, as well.
With M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS both in the field now, and both firing the same rockets, I'll talk about M31 rockets rather than which launch system was used, but unless we get that M31 single-launch technical idea that I liked, M31 rockets means fired by M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS.
*M31 is a) accurate enough to reliably not hit the dam when aiming at something several dozen metres from it and b) does not have a big enough warhead to do more than cosmetic damage to the dam.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Named after Putin I assume.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:24 amrocket strikes took out a Repellant-1 electronic warfare system
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
I should probably have checked my sources before posting. Overnight, they hit the Antonivsky road bridge again. Now it's closed to traffic, and there's rumours of Russian plans to set up pontoon bridges across the lower Dnipro. The Dnipro is one of the great rivers of Europe, and a pontoon bridge across its mouth is no small task to attempt.
In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.
In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Reportedly, throughout the occupation of Snake Island, there was one Ukrainian that stayed behind, denying the Russians total control. That brave Ukrainian is pictured here, greeting Ukrainian SOF as they return to hoist the flag of Ukraine once more on Snake Island.
Hope the little bugger's alright. There were a lot of explosives launched at that rock.
Hope the little bugger's alright. There were a lot of explosives launched at that rock.
Re: Blyatskrieg
I've never really understood why the Russians set up camp on the north west bank of the Dnieper. Fundamentally this is a land grab and a natural division of Ukraine would be along the line of the river.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 amI should probably have checked my sources before posting. Overnight, they hit the Antonivsky road bridge again. Now it's closed to traffic, and there's rumours of Russian plans to set up pontoon bridges across the lower Dnipro. The Dnipro is one of the great rivers of Europe, and a pontoon bridge across its mouth is no small task to attempt.
In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.
Capturing Kherson made sense as step one towards capturing Mykolaiv and then Odesa. Is holding it just a remnant of that failure?
Is Crimea more protected by having control of Kherson? Isn't that offset by having troops vulnerable to a sudden closing of the river crossings by Ukraine?
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: Blyatskrieg
lpm wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:30 pmI've never really understood why the Russians set up camp on the north west bank of the Dnieper. Fundamentally this is a land grab and a natural division of Ukraine would be along the line of the river.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 amI should probably have checked my sources before posting. Overnight, they hit the Antonivsky road bridge again. Now it's closed to traffic, and there's rumours of Russian plans to set up pontoon bridges across the lower Dnipro. The Dnipro is one of the great rivers of Europe, and a pontoon bridge across its mouth is no small task to attempt.
In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.
Capturing Kherson made sense as step one towards capturing Mykolaiv and then Odesa. Is holding it just a remnant of that failure?
Is Crimea more protected by having control of Kherson? Isn't that offset by having troops vulnerable to a sudden closing of the river crossings by Ukraine?
Because the high command hasn't yet stopped believing their own propaganda?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Appears to be the right answer. They are still acting as if capturing Odesa is on the cards.jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:58 pmlpm wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:30 pmCapturing Kherson made sense as step one towards capturing Mykolaiv and then Odesa. Is holding it just a remnant of that failure?
Is Crimea more protected by having control of Kherson? Isn't that offset by having troops vulnerable to a sudden closing of the river crossings by Ukraine?
Because the high command hasn't yet stopped believing their own propaganda?
And LPM, you are right about the vulnerability of Russian troops on the Right Bank of the Dnipro. While knocking out the crossing at Nova Kakhovka is fraught with risk due to the presence of the dam, there's a lock to allow navigation on the Dnipro next to that dam, and no such risks with blowing that bridge. Though it would be easier to repair, all it needs to do is stop trucks going in quantity, and given the distances involved, repeated hits with M31s would be viable.
Meanwhile, there's reports of Russians sent to the front with a week of training, and call intercepts talking about troops having two days of training on artillery.
Suddenly, the condensed training course on Salisbury plain for Ukrainians looks a lot less rushed.
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Update on the Antonivsky Bridge. Looks like 155mm shells, not HIMARS's M31 rockets. While some are downplaying the effect of the damage, I think it's going to be difficult to move heavy trucks and tanks across. As far as I can tell, the hits haven't just knocked holes in a roadway laid on top of structural elements, but the horizontal web of what is, in effect, a bunch of reinforced concrete T-sections.
And it's easily repeatable. And if Ukraine want to inflict more damage, they could either use M31 rockets, which hit concrete harder than 155mm shells do, or they could bring up a 2S7 Pion, which fires shells approximately twice as big as 155mm shells.
The question right now is how hard do Ukraine want to hit the bridge? Do they want to create a nuisance and send a message, or do they want to knock out a bridge they might one day want to use themselves. And are they going to go for the railway bridge just to the east as well?
And it's easily repeatable. And if Ukraine want to inflict more damage, they could either use M31 rockets, which hit concrete harder than 155mm shells do, or they could bring up a 2S7 Pion, which fires shells approximately twice as big as 155mm shells.
The question right now is how hard do Ukraine want to hit the bridge? Do they want to create a nuisance and send a message, or do they want to knock out a bridge they might one day want to use themselves. And are they going to go for the railway bridge just to the east as well?
-
- Catbabel
- Posts: 741
- Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:18 am
Re: Blyatskrieg
Thanks for all your detailed and insightful comments on the war and its technology, EACL, of which this is just one example. I've come to rely on them as my starting point in reviewing the war each day.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:18 pmUpdate on the Antonivsky Bridge. Looks like 155mm shells, not HIMARS's M31 rockets. While some are downplaying the effect of the damage, I think it's going to be difficult to move heavy trucks and tanks across. As far as I can tell, the hits haven't just knocked holes in a roadway laid on top of structural elements, but the horizontal web of what is, in effect, a bunch of reinforced concrete T-sections.
And it's easily repeatable. And if Ukraine want to inflict more damage, they could either use M31 rockets, which hit concrete harder than 155mm shells do, or they could bring up a 2S7 Pion, which fires shells approximately twice as big as 155mm shells.
The question right now is how hard do Ukraine want to hit the bridge? Do they want to create a nuisance and send a message, or do they want to knock out a bridge they might one day want to use themselves. And are they going to go for the railway bridge just to the east as well?
Re: Blyatskrieg
+1 - it really is an excellent resource for those of use without that knowledge.Allo V Psycho wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:04 am
Thanks for all your detailed and insightful comments on the war and its technology, EACL, of which this is just one example. I've come to rely on them as my starting point in reviewing the war each day.
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
Thanks everyone.
Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Looks implausibleEACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pmThanks everyone.
Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ
Def Mon
@DefMon3
This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later
@Kartinamaslom5
wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.
I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
meanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
lots of fires now in the occupied South
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
lots of fires now in the occupied South
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Re: Blyatskrieg
He's a good follow. I suspect he's right here, but would add he doesn't think it's impossible, just not really supported by anything and shelling evidence points to a frontline through the village instead. The key point is for this to be the case, things would have had to have moved pretty fast, and we have nothing but rumour and the fact that Ukrainians have been pushing in this area and Vysokopillya is a bit of a salient, and thus vulnerable to envelopment.jimbob wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:43 pmLooks implausibleEACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pmThanks everyone.
Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ
Def Mon
@DefMon3
This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later
@Kartinamaslom5
wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.
I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
My current take home is that encirclement isn't likely, but the possibility the position might be abandoned due to threat of encirclement (as happened at Malaya Rohan, Trostyanets and numerous places north of Kyiv) shouldn't be ruled out.
Regardless of encirclement status, the claims that two thousand Russians are involved are very dubious. There's no way there's two thousand of the f.ckers in Vysokopillya, given how few troops they have for the Kherson front in general.
Re: Blyatskrieg
It's a bit stronger than that in the thread I linked one post to.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:08 pmHe's a good follow. I suspect he's right here, but would add he doesn't think it's impossible, just not really supported by anything and shelling evidence points to a frontline through the village instead. The key point is for this to be the case, things would have had to have moved pretty fast, and we have nothing but rumour and the fact that Ukrainians have been pushing in this area and Vysokopillya is a bit of a salient, and thus vulnerable to envelopment.jimbob wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:43 pmLooks implausibleEACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pmThanks everyone.
Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ
Def Mon
@DefMon3
This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later
@Kartinamaslom5
wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.
I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
My current take home is that encirclement isn't likely, but the possibility the position might be abandoned due to threat of encirclement (as happened at Malaya Rohan, Trostyanets and numerous places north of Kyiv) shouldn't be ruled out.
Regardless of encirclement status, the claims that two thousand Russians are involved are very dubious. There's no way there's two thousand of the f.ckers in Vysokopillya, given how few troops they have for the Kherson front in general.
It looks as though his reading of the map might have lead TPYXA to "make it clickbait"
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
Useful website, now bookmarked, thanksjimbob wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pmmeanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
lots of fires now in the occupied South
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: Blyatskrieg
worth comparing the historical dataGfamily wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:09 pmUseful website, now bookmarked, thanksjimbob wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pmmeanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
lots of fires now in the occupied South
July 1st https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
July 21st https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation