The SF explanation certainly holds less water than it might of yesterday...EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:00 pmAnyway, I think we can all conclude we aren't looking at carelessly discarded cigarettes here. We're talking cigars, at a minimum, and big ones at that.
Blyatskrieg
Re: Blyatskrieg
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
Re: Blyatskrieg
Could there have been an SF element in painting/designating the targets?
Also, I'm a bit confused - have there been 2 separate incidents in Crimea or am I muddling up names.
Also, I'm a bit confused - have there been 2 separate incidents in Crimea or am I muddling up names.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Unlikely as the location of the installations at the airbase would have been well known from satellite images. So they wouldn't have needed someone to designate a target. But I guess its possible.
One incident is being referred to with the name of the airbase (Saki or Saky) and the name of the nearby town (Novofedorvika).
Re: Blyatskrieg
There was also a munitions dump 175km from Ukrainian-controlled territory
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 16W0TwisXg
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Re: Blyatskrieg
One big incident we're all talking about, which is the airbase at Novofederovka, which is near the town of Saky.
However, there are other notable long range strikes behind the lines - Novooleksiivka, and Chongar. The latter is on the edge of Crimea.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Ukraine will want Russia to believe it was SF, though, as that means the Russians will need vastly more security in their operational rear, and that pulls infantry from the front lines.TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:04 amThe SF explanation certainly holds less water than it might of yesterday...EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:00 pmAnyway, I think we can all conclude we aren't looking at carelessly discarded cigarettes here. We're talking cigars, at a minimum, and big ones at that.
We can't completely rule out a role for SF, it isn't completely impossible that the missiles needed guidance, I suppose, but it doesn't seem likely.
Those craters, incidentally, are on the order of twenty five metres across. I've seen a chart of crater size compared to munition, and even 2000lb bombs come in at less than twenty. Half tonne warheads sound about right in this context.
One possibility - particularly given the rather oily looking nature of the explosions and the flash-fireball sequence - is that these were thermobaric warheads. I know these were intended as an option for Hrim-2, but we still don't know if it was Hrim-2.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Would thremobaric warheads leave such craters? It seems surprising to me as a complete non expertEACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:25 pmUkraine will want Russia to believe it was SF, though, as that means the Russians will need vastly more security in their operational rear, and that pulls infantry from the front lines.TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:04 amThe SF explanation certainly holds less water than it might of yesterday...EACLucifer wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:00 pmAnyway, I think we can all conclude we aren't looking at carelessly discarded cigarettes here. We're talking cigars, at a minimum, and big ones at that.
We can't completely rule out a role for SF, it isn't completely impossible that the missiles needed guidance, I suppose, but it doesn't seem likely.
Those craters, incidentally, are on the order of twenty five metres across. I've seen a chart of crater size compared to munition, and even 2000lb bombs come in at less than twenty. Half tonne warheads sound about right in this context.
One possibility - particularly given the rather oily looking nature of the explosions and the flash-fireball sequence - is that these were thermobaric warheads. I know these were intended as an option for Hrim-2, but we still don't know if it was Hrim-2.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: Blyatskrieg
They can, because they produce a powerful shockwave. The fireball is just leftover fuel that didn't have the right stochiometry to be fully consumed in the detonation.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:38 pmWould thremobaric warheads leave such craters? It seems surprising to me as a complete non expertEACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:25 pmUkraine will want Russia to believe it was SF, though, as that means the Russians will need vastly more security in their operational rear, and that pulls infantry from the front lines.
We can't completely rule out a role for SF, it isn't completely impossible that the missiles needed guidance, I suppose, but it doesn't seem likely.
Those craters, incidentally, are on the order of twenty five metres across. I've seen a chart of crater size compared to munition, and even 2000lb bombs come in at less than twenty. Half tonne warheads sound about right in this context.
One possibility - particularly given the rather oily looking nature of the explosions and the flash-fireball sequence - is that these were thermobaric warheads. I know these were intended as an option for Hrim-2, but we still don't know if it was Hrim-2.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Thread from someone arguing in favour of special forces interpretation. I don't think I agree, but he makes some good points and important to keep an open mind.
His argument is that SOF could have placed charges on the ammo stores.
His argument is that SOF could have placed charges on the ammo stores.
Re: Blyatskrieg
What I was thinking was that Hiroshima, or even Trinity didn't really produce cratersEACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:01 pmThey can, because they produce a powerful shockwave. The fireball is just leftover fuel that didn't have the right stochiometry to be fully consumed in the detonation.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:38 pmWould thremobaric warheads leave such craters? It seems surprising to me as a complete non expertEACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:25 pm
Ukraine will want Russia to believe it was SF, though, as that means the Russians will need vastly more security in their operational rear, and that pulls infantry from the front lines.
We can't completely rule out a role for SF, it isn't completely impossible that the missiles needed guidance, I suppose, but it doesn't seem likely.
Those craters, incidentally, are on the order of twenty five metres across. I've seen a chart of crater size compared to munition, and even 2000lb bombs come in at less than twenty. Half tonne warheads sound about right in this context.
One possibility - particularly given the rather oily looking nature of the explosions and the flash-fireball sequence - is that these were thermobaric warheads. I know these were intended as an option for Hrim-2, but we still don't know if it was Hrim-2.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: Blyatskrieg
The Hiroshima bomb was air burst, so that the blast wave would be less intense at ground zero and more widely spread. Hence no crater. Wikipedia says it was 1800 to 2000 feet altitude.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Which is why I also mentioned Trinity.basementer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pmThe Hiroshima bomb was air burst, so that the blast wave would be less intense at ground zero and more widely spread. Hence no crater. Wikipedia says it was 1800 to 2000 feet altitude.
And a thremobaric weapon would be an airburst if it worked as designed.
But I guess a combination of fuel air and an impact would make sense
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
So now of course I'm thinking of the video of the two "simultaneous" explosions where three frames show the left fireball, then a faint but much larger yellow flash to its right, then the right fireball.
Reading about fuel air weapons in Wikipedia it describes a now-obsolete Vietnam era US weapon CBU-72 which contained three 100lb fuel-air submunitions and was seen as very effective against "aircraft parked in the open". Those were intended to burst open at about 30 ft and release a fuel cloud about 60ft across.
Very tempting to try to reconcile that with what we saw but of course it could still be something else entirely.
Reading about fuel air weapons in Wikipedia it describes a now-obsolete Vietnam era US weapon CBU-72 which contained three 100lb fuel-air submunitions and was seen as very effective against "aircraft parked in the open". Those were intended to burst open at about 30 ft and release a fuel cloud about 60ft across.
Very tempting to try to reconcile that with what we saw but of course it could still be something else entirely.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Trinity was on top of a tower, which significantly reduces the crater compared to directly on the ground or slightly buried.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:49 pmWhich is why I also mentioned Trinity.basementer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pmThe Hiroshima bomb was air burst, so that the blast wave would be less intense at ground zero and more widely spread. Hence no crater. Wikipedia says it was 1800 to 2000 feet altitude.
Tallboys and Grand Slam earthquake bombs also didn't have to leave much in the way of craters, as they were designed to be able to explode deep enough that they didn't waste energy throwing debris, but instead dug caverns to undermine structures, and sent shock waves out to damage structures. They could be set to explode at more shallow depths though for attacking surface structures like rail yards and airfields.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Exactly, but a thremobaric weapon should ALSO be an airburst weapon unless you were using it against a bunker or tunnel complex. Especially if you are trying to damage aircraft.dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:36 pmTrinity was on top of a tower, which significantly reduces the crater compared to directly on the ground or slightly buried.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:49 pmWhich is why I also mentioned Trinity.basementer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pmThe Hiroshima bomb was air burst, so that the blast wave would be less intense at ground zero and more widely spread. Hence no crater. Wikipedia says it was 1800 to 2000 feet altitude.
Tallboys and Grand Slam earthquake bombs also didn't have to leave much in the way of craters, as they were designed to be able to explode deep enough that they didn't waste energy throwing debris, but instead dug caverns to undermine structures, and sent shock waves out to damage structures. They could be set to explode at more shallow depths though for attacking surface structures like rail yards and airfields.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/15577 ... kENyUrGk8A
Ukraine is good on the social media trolling of Russia
Ukraine is good on the social media trolling of Russia
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: Blyatskrieg
On the point that no missiles appear in the video. Ballistic missiles are very fast in their terminal phase. I can’t find any stats for a Hrim-2. But if it was travelling at, say, 2500 kmh, would we expect to see it in a video? Especially if the video was taken on a mobile phone or a security camera.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:02 pmThread from someone arguing in favour of special forces interpretation. I don't think I agree, but he makes some good points and important to keep an open mind.
His argument is that SOF could have placed charges on the ammo stores.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
I've not seen any signs of ballistic missiles in previous strikes conducted with them. Cruise missiles, yes, but not things like Iskanders, which is the closest comparable missile to either Hrim-2 or ATACMS.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:52 pmOn the point that no missiles appear in the video. Ballistic missiles are very fast in their terminal phase. I can’t find any stats for a Hrim-2. But if it was travelling at, say, 2500 kmh, would we expect to see it in a video? Especially if the video was taken on a mobile phone or a security camera.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:02 pmThread from someone arguing in favour of special forces interpretation. I don't think I agree, but he makes some good points and important to keep an open mind.
His argument is that SOF could have placed charges on the ammo stores.
A ballistic missile would be coming in fast, a kilometre or two every second. I think it's quite possible ballistics could have come in without being seen.
I'm open to the idea that the craters and blasts could be ammunition stores detonating, but they seem too consistent in both fireball shape/size and crater size. Inferring too much from crater size isn't ideal, as, as discussed above, we don't know the burst height. On the other hand if we're looking at something just a little bigger than the maximum crater size in optimum conditions for a 2000lb Mk84 bomb, with its 429kg bursting charge, we're looking at a big blast either way.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
It really does just look like a thermobaric. If they were thermobarics of that size, then personnel operating in that particular area wouldn't have had particularly good survival chances. Thermobarics are very effective - and extremely unpleasant - weapons.Martin Y wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:02 pmSo now of course I'm thinking of the video of the two "simultaneous" explosions where three frames show the left fireball, then a faint but much larger yellow flash to its right, then the right fireball.
Reading about fuel air weapons in Wikipedia it describes a now-obsolete Vietnam era US weapon CBU-72 which contained three 100lb fuel-air submunitions and was seen as very effective against "aircraft parked in the open". Those were intended to burst open at about 30 ft and release a fuel cloud about 60ft across.
Very tempting to try to reconcile that with what we saw but of course it could still be something else entirely.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: Blyatskrieg
On the evening of the day Novofedorivka got schwacked, there were reports of blasts in Belarus, specifically, Zyabrovka, an airbase used by the Russians. I - and a lot of much more knowledgeable people than me - was quite sceptical, as the only evidence was an indistinct flash on an indistinct horizon. That's understandable for a real event, of course - it isn't safe to operate too openly filming that sort of thing.
But it turns out something did happen. There's scorch marks on the satellite. Nothing close to Novofedorivka in scope, but still something.
Could be partisans, hard to say. A lot of Belarusians oppose Lukashenko and the de-facto Russian occupation he has both enabled and depends upon. Many are fighting for Ukraine right now. It could even be Ukraine hitting back at the base from which attacks are launched on Ukraine, which they are perfectly entitled to do, of course. Whoever is behind it - and it could be an accident, of course - putting pressure on Lukashenko could create a lot of difficulties for the Russians. With their troops in Ukraine, if Belarus rises against Lukashenko, he's toast.
And western powers need to be ready to act if something of that nature does happen, even though it remains quite unlikely at the moment.
But it turns out something did happen. There's scorch marks on the satellite. Nothing close to Novofedorivka in scope, but still something.
Could be partisans, hard to say. A lot of Belarusians oppose Lukashenko and the de-facto Russian occupation he has both enabled and depends upon. Many are fighting for Ukraine right now. It could even be Ukraine hitting back at the base from which attacks are launched on Ukraine, which they are perfectly entitled to do, of course. Whoever is behind it - and it could be an accident, of course - putting pressure on Lukashenko could create a lot of difficulties for the Russians. With their troops in Ukraine, if Belarus rises against Lukashenko, he's toast.
And western powers need to be ready to act if something of that nature does happen, even though it remains quite unlikely at the moment.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Nova Kakhovka. Bridge doesn't look very happy.
I'd say that nearest girder is no longer girding. Looks like the tension cables have all failed at this end, too.
And this was before further strikes, as seen here.
Looks like air defence stopped some of them, but only some of them.
I'd say that nearest girder is no longer girding. Looks like the tension cables have all failed at this end, too.
And this was before further strikes, as seen here.
Looks like air defence stopped some of them, but only some of them.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Mixed my bridges up. The damage pictured is Nova Kakhovka. The arrivals in the video are at the Antonivsky bridge.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:24 amNova Kakhovka. Bridge doesn't look very happy.
I'd say that nearest girder is no longer girding. Looks like the tension cables have all failed at this end, too.
And this was before further strikes, as seen here.
Looks like air defence stopped some of them, but only some of them.
Much clearer footage here. Definitely a number of rockets get through to the bridge. Unclear to what extent interceptor detonating corresponds with successful interception. At least one interceptor detonates only for a hit on the bridge to follow moments later.
It looks like the same part of the same span we've seem damaged before has been hit again.
Re: Blyatskrieg
four tweet thread on thisEACLucifer wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:56 amMixed my bridges up. The damage pictured is Nova Kakhovka. The arrivals in the video are at the Antonivsky bridge.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:24 amNova Kakhovka. Bridge doesn't look very happy.
I'd say that nearest girder is no longer girding. Looks like the tension cables have all failed at this end, too.
And this was before further strikes, as seen here.
Looks like air defence stopped some of them, but only some of them.
Much clearer footage here. Definitely a number of rockets get through to the bridge. Unclear to what extent interceptor detonating corresponds with successful interception. At least one interceptor detonates only for a hit on the bridge to follow moments later.
It looks like the same part of the same span we've seem damaged before has been hit again.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/155 ... 4ApadDMwGg
TLDR - Thomas is arguing that these were basically fired on a preset course with a preset bursting time - not even a proximity fuse*.
*Dan Kaszeta is adamant that "fuze" is the correct spelling even in the UK but I refuse to believe him on THAT.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
Chambers agrees with youjimbob wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:43 amfour tweet thread on thisEACLucifer wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:56 amMixed my bridges up. The damage pictured is Nova Kakhovka. The arrivals in the video are at the Antonivsky bridge.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:24 amNova Kakhovka. Bridge doesn't look very happy.
I'd say that nearest girder is no longer girding. Looks like the tension cables have all failed at this end, too.
And this was before further strikes, as seen here.
Looks like air defence stopped some of them, but only some of them.
Much clearer footage here. Definitely a number of rockets get through to the bridge. Unclear to what extent interceptor detonating corresponds with successful interception. At least one interceptor detonates only for a hit on the bridge to follow moments later.
It looks like the same part of the same span we've seem damaged before has been hit again.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/155 ... 4ApadDMwGg
TLDR - Thomas is arguing that these were basically fired on a preset course with a preset bursting time - not even a proximity fuse*.
*Dan Kaszeta is adamant that "fuze" is the correct spelling even in the UK but I refuse to believe him on THAT.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three