The Invasion of Ukraine

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Grumble
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:12 pm

jdc wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:43 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:02 am
Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion
https://web.archive.org/web/20220816144 ... ad-to-war/

Detailed and worth reading
I've checked, and it is. Thanks for the link Chops.
Shows the complexity of balancing a lot of conflicting priorities. Thank goodness Trump wasn’t President in that period, Ukraine would have been overrun.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:43 pm

Ukraine intelligence is claiming that Russia will be staging a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... LwSziQsbPg

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:07 pm


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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TimW » Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:11 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:43 pm
Ukraine intelligence is claiming that Russia will be staging a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant tomorrow.
Sounds possible, because the Russians are claiming that Ukraine are going to stage a provocation instead.
https://tass.com/politics/1495495

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:34 pm

Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
https://kyivindependent.com/investigati ... misconduct

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Brightonian » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:00 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:43 pm
Ukraine intelligence is claiming that Russia will be staging a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... LwSziQsbPg
Claim that Russian vehicles "filled with explosives" on their way into the building: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 0716412931

Does this mean another Chernobyl then, if it does blow up?

Edit: from a Sky News story, a Chernobyl-type incident is "highly unlikely".

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin_B » Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:00 am

Brightonian wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:00 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:43 pm
Ukraine intelligence is claiming that Russia will be staging a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... LwSziQsbPg
Claim that Russian vehicles "filled with explosives" on their way into the building: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 0716412931

Does this mean another Chernobyl then, if it does blow up?

Edit: from a Sky News story, a Chernobyl-type incident is "highly unlikely".
Possibly Russia has found a staging post which Ukraine won't target.

Yes, trucks filled with explosives blowing up are unlikely to create a Chernobyl style runaway reaction. But enough explosives could damage the reactor core's containment and result in a Chernobyl (more likely Three Mile Island) style release of material.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:40 am

The Ukraine war as Middle Earth.
https://twitter.com/me_of_ee/status/155 ... t9ikMT2N-Q

Back in the early 90s journalists used to call Serbia the land of Mordor.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:03 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:40 am
The Ukraine war as Middle Earth.
https://twitter.com/me_of_ee/status/155 ... t9ikMT2N-Q

Back in the early 90s journalists used to call Serbia the land of Mordor.
Canonically, it's the land to the east of the battles that is Mordor. Although that also makes the US (or Canada) the promised land of peace for the elves...

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Sciolus » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:51 pm

Something something orcs something.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:48 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:51 pm
Something something orcs something.
Those who follow the conflict closely are by this point very used to seeing the Russians refered to by the term "Orc", and indeed though I've made very little effort on Cyrillic*, it's a word I increasingly recognise in Cyrillic texts, too. IIRC, the identification of Russian soldiers with Orcs began with a Russian writer, and spiralled from there.


*I'm about at the point now where I look at bilingual maps and find myself idly wondering why they printed the names twice before realising

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Two Albanian soldiers reportedly injured, one critically so, while arresting foreign intruders - reportedly Russian - trying to sneak into a weapons facility in Gramsh, Albania, per Albanian prosecutor's statement. Apparently the intruders attacked them with some sort of chemical agent.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:09 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Two Albanian soldiers reportedly injured, one critically so, while arresting foreign intruders - reportedly Russian - trying to sneak into a weapons facility in Gramsh, Albania, per Albanian prosecutor's statement. Apparently the intruders attacked them with some sort of chemical agent.
Also Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb in Moscow.

She was a Nazi like her father who seems to have been the target.

It doesn't look good for Putin's regime, as the obvious explanation is lieutenants jockeying for position as his grip slips.

And if he doesn't have a purge *soon* as a consequence, he will have lost it.

Unless it was arranged by him.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:20 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:09 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Two Albanian soldiers reportedly injured, one critically so, while arresting foreign intruders - reportedly Russian - trying to sneak into a weapons facility in Gramsh, Albania, per Albanian prosecutor's statement. Apparently the intruders attacked them with some sort of chemical agent.
Also Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb in Moscow.

She was a Nazi like her father who seems to have been the target.

It doesn't look good for Putin's regime, as the obvious explanation is lieutenants jockeying for position as his grip slips.

And if he doesn't have a purge *soon* as a consequence, he will have lost it.

Unless it was arranged by him.
Basically Flash Gordon had it right when Klytus said

Set down your weapons. No one, but no one, dies in the palace without a Command from the Emperor.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Sun Aug 21, 2022 1:25 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Two Albanian soldiers reportedly injured, one critically so, while arresting foreign intruders - reportedly Russian - trying to sneak into a weapons facility in Gramsh, Albania, per Albanian prosecutor's statement. Apparently the intruders attacked them with some sort of chemical agent.
"While arresting" suggests the saboteurs were caught. Good news if so. (Well, good compared to the alternative. Clearly not good for the guards they attacked.)

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:33 am

Good article on the implications of the murder of Dugin’s daughter: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ale ... assination

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:20 pm

Some info on how many tanks Russia may have left: https://twitter.com/rebel44cz/status/15 ... nGb_W8VhEA

Original source in Ukrainian but commentary in English.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:09 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:33 am
Good article on the implications of the murder of Dugin’s daughter: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ale ... assination
Thanks.

As implied - I can't see how this is good news for Putin. I am now thinking it probably was an actual FSB attack, rather than gang fighting. Which might be intended to send a warning to those who might depose him, but is equally likely to make them feel threatened and feeling the need to act.

I still think Putin will probably survive the year in charge of Russia. But then at the start of 1991 I had no idea that Gorbechev would be out and the USSR would cease to exist within the year.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:14 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:09 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:33 am
Good article on the implications of the murder of Dugin’s daughter: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ale ... assination
Thanks.

As implied - I can't see how this is good news for Putin. I am now thinking it probably was an actual FSB attack, rather than gang fighting. Which might be intended to send a warning to those who might depose him, but is equally likely to make them feel threatened and feeling the need to act.

I still think Putin will probably survive the year in charge of Russia. But then at the start of 1991 I had no idea that Gorbechev would be out and the USSR would cease to exist within the year.
Part of the rather terrible attempts to blame it on Ukraine and Estonia, dissected here - https://twitter.com/IssandJumal/status/ ... 4975540225

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:33 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:14 pm


Part of the rather terrible attempts to blame it on Ukraine and Estonia, dissected here - https://twitter.com/IssandJumal/status/ ... 4975540225
That at least is on-brand. Who could forget the raid that uncovered a fake identity card belonging to "Signature illegible" (yes, that was their clear signature) and the three copies of the Sims.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:27 pm

Kazakhstan has been making noises that are not encouraging for Putin.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:28 pm

Mariupol journalist citing city morgues reports at least 113,750 residents died during Russia’s assault, siege and ghettoisation of the Ukrainian city. A horrific figure many times higher than previous estimates.
https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker/status/1 ... 4657637377

According to the Wiki, the prewar population was 431,859. Circa twenty-five per cent mortality in a city that was bombarded and besieged is possible.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:14 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:28 pm
Mariupol journalist citing city morgues reports at least 113,750 residents died during Russia’s assault, siege and ghettoisation of the Ukrainian city. A horrific figure many times higher than previous estimates.
https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker/status/1 ... 4657637377

According to the Wiki, the prewar population was 431,859. Circa twenty-five per cent mortality in a city that was bombarded and besieged is possible.
For context, that's about the same as all the casualties, military and civilian, on both sides of the Arab-Israeli conflict for its whole 75-year duration.

Mariupol was surrounded in the first few days, making it very hard to get civilians out. Russia mined and shelled evacuation routes into other parts of Ukraine, and those "evacuated" to Russia have been forced through "filtration" camps. Rather than use the Russians preferred term, we should simply call these what they are; Concentration Camps. Satellite images confirm these have mass graves alongside them. In addition, Russia has been taking children and sending them for "adoption" with Russian families.

There were so many good reasons why people were terrified of going to Russia, and the Russian military blocked people from going to other parts of Ukraine. That left the population trapped under Russia's bombardment, a bombardment that utterly destroyed the city.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by IvanV » Wed Aug 31, 2022 3:20 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:14 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:28 pm
Mariupol journalist citing city morgues reports at least 113,750 residents died during Russia’s assault, siege and ghettoisation of the Ukrainian city. A horrific figure many times higher than previous estimates.
https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker/status/1 ... 4657637377

According to the Wiki, the prewar population was 431,859. Circa twenty-five per cent mortality in a city that was bombarded and besieged is possible.
For context, that's about the same as all the casualties, military and civilian, on both sides of the Arab-Israeli conflict for its whole 75-year duration.

Mariupol was surrounded in the first few days, making it very hard to get civilians out. Russia mined and shelled evacuation routes into other parts of Ukraine, and those "evacuated" to Russia have been forced through "filtration" camps. Rather than use the Russians preferred term, we should simply call these what they are; Concentration Camps. Satellite images confirm these have mass graves alongside them. In addition, Russia has been taking children and sending them for "adoption" with Russian families.

There were so many good reasons why people were terrified of going to Russia, and the Russian military blocked people from going to other parts of Ukraine. That left the population trapped under Russia's bombardment, a bombardment that utterly destroyed the city.
25% civilian mortality is similar to the 1948 Siege of Changchun in the Chinese Civil War, (150,000 to 200,000 out of a population at the time of around 800,000) or Chinese Communist Revolution as the later part of that war is sometimes called. It could be said to be the point at which the Communists won the war, and the rest was a victory procession. The Communists showed themselves willing to be utterly ruthless. The siege consolidated their control of Manchuria. After that, they very quickly took over the key densely populated part of China along the eastern coastal strip. Many people now turned over to the Communist side, basically because it looked like the best idea for self-preservation. Towns mostly rapidly surrendered rather than repeat the experience of Changchun.

For all that it was such a significant victory point in the People's War of Liberation, as some also call it, the Chinese Communist Party wasn't afterwards very keen on celebrating it. A bit like the Tiananmen Sq massacre writ very large. It soon became one of those Things That Must Not Be Mentioned, and indeed for a long time was very little known by the Chinese population in general. They prefer to celebrate mythologised "heroic feats" like the Battle of Luding Bridge.

Leningrad was worse, perhaps the worst - civilian deaths amounted to about 1/3 of the 1939 population, around 1,000,000 out of 3,000,000.

Anyway, suffice it to say, if this is true Mariupol will enter high up in the list of truly shocking military atrocities.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:36 am

The claimed Ukrainian amphibious landing at Enerhodar that Russia used as an excuse to a) block the IAEA delegation and b) shell places on the route they would have taken to really block them is almost certainly a work of purest fiction. There's been no evidence provided whatsoever, the only footage is of Russian helicopters flying about, and such an operation would be at best a suicide mission.

Amphibious commando landings can seize lightly held areas. Enerhodar is very heavily garrisoned, as Russia is sheltering equipment in the shadow of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. And even if a landing could somehow overcome that garrison, then what? They'd be on the wrong side of the Dnipro at a point where it is a wide reservoir, with no GLOC to any other Ukrainian held part of Ukraine.

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