The cost of living

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:25 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:31 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:25 am
Targets for rationing/extra taxation:
Outdoor heated pools
Patio heaters
Private planes
Frequent flying
Houses with lots of unutilised bedrooms
Rental properties with low energy efficiency
Commercial properties with lights and computers etc left on all night
New ICE vehicles
Beef and dairy production
Big TVs
Ostentatious Christmas decorations (v much looking forward to that discourse later in the year lol)
As lpm would surely point out, these are all affected by price rises which make them much more expensive. So additional measures would need to focus upon examples where use wasn't affected much by increasing energy prices. Private jets are one example. Owners may be able to afford the fuel whatever the price is.
<snip>
To some extent, yes - but the people doing that kind of consuming are much less price-sensitive than folk who already have to choose between heating and eating. Progressive energy pricing, where the price per unit increased per quantile of consumption or whatever, would target excessive consumption specifically, and generate money to spend on stuff like insulating and payments for the poorest. As would the immediate removal of subsidies. The impact of price increases is relative to one's disposable income, as Ivan points out, so to impact the consumption of the richest consumers you need to target them with greater price hikes, or just outright bans.

The UK may well experience lengthy blackouts during winter. https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/08/ ... blackouts/ Once again, that's a kind of enforced rationing applied indiscriminately. It might be sensible to find unnecessary and wasteful uses of energy and stop them in advance, so that everyone has the chance to live comfortably through the winter.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:27 pm

Note that profiteering and speculation are also contributing to food price increases:
Companies at the centre of the global grain trade have enjoyed a record bonanza amid soaring food prices around the world, raising concerns of profiteering and speculation in global food markets that could put staples beyond the reach of the poorest, and prompting calls for a windfall tax.

The world’s top four grain traders, which have dominated the global grain market for decades – have seen record or near-record profits or sales. They are forecasting demand to outstrip supply at least until 2024, which is likely to lead to even higher sales and profits in the next two years.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ndfall-tax
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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:33 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:16 am
Fuel poverty is such a bollocks concept. It's just poverty due to insufficient income

What we're talking about is the burning of fossil fuels. An inherently bad thing. If government should bail us out to pay for some of our fossil fuel burning, why not demand it pays for other bad things people can't afford? Like addressing cigarette-poverty? Or the gambling-poverty problem blighting so many lives, why doesn't the govt cover some of that cost? Why doesn't the govt do something about holiday-poverty, where people aren't able to afford to sunbathe in Spain?

Money is fungible. Which means poverty is fungible. Which means addressing a sub-poverty like "fuel poverty" is just a really bad way of giving benefits to address poverty.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:40 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:33 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:16 am
Fuel poverty is such a bollocks concept. It's just poverty due to insufficient income

What we're talking about is the burning of fossil fuels. An inherently bad thing.
So is dying of hypothermia, getting sick due to cold and damp living, getting sick due to not being able to cook food, getting sicker because you can't afford to travel to doctor's appointments, and getting poorer due to not being able to afford to travel for work/benefits appointments.

Not being able to afford fuel is something that has feedback loops that make the other effects of poverty worse. You haven't explained how you are going to transition the country, and particularly the poorest of the population, away from fossil fuels in the next three months so that the coming winter doesn't harm people. Money is fungible, but even if you threw the entire Government budget at it now, you couldn't transition completely away from fossil fuel within the next year or five. It takes time to install insulation, time to build solar farms or other non-fossil power plants, time to build public transport and electric vehicles.

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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:52 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:33 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:16 am
Fuel poverty is such a bollocks concept. It's just poverty due to insufficient income

What we're talking about is the burning of fossil fuels. An inherently bad thing. If government should bail us out to pay for some of our fossil fuel burning, why not demand it pays for other bad things people can't afford? Like addressing cigarette-poverty? Or the gambling-poverty problem blighting so many lives, why doesn't the govt cover some of that cost? Why doesn't the govt do something about holiday-poverty, where people aren't able to afford to sunbathe in Spain?

Money is fungible. Which means poverty is fungible. Which means addressing a sub-poverty like "fuel poverty" is just a really bad way of giving benefits to address poverty.
Well, it's not just about financial poverty, as the bit you've cut out explained. It's also about energy efficiency of the home. So an alternative way to fix it would be to improve energy efficiency of homes, starting with households in poverty. I think we all agree on the necessity of a publicly-funded mass insulation program.

Similarly, there are ways to heat homes that don't require fossil fuels, but they are financially out of reach for most consumers. The issue isn't heating per se, but how that heat is generated. Passivhaus-standard buildings with heat-pumps, microgeneration and a battery bank isn't obtainable for someone on minimum wage.

You can't just handwave away the fact that it is, as usual, the most vulnerable in society who are going to suffer. It's a choice as to whether you give a sh.t about people less fortunate than you, of course. But even if you don't, right now that's most of the electorate, so a politically popular strategy needs to acknowledge people's well-founded fears and do something to alleviate their cause.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:57 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:25 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:31 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:25 am
Targets for rationing/extra taxation:
Outdoor heated pools
Patio heaters
Private planes
Frequent flying
Houses with lots of unutilised bedrooms
Rental properties with low energy efficiency
Commercial properties with lights and computers etc left on all night
New ICE vehicles
Beef and dairy production
Big TVs
Ostentatious Christmas decorations (v much looking forward to that discourse later in the year lol)
As lpm would surely point out, these are all affected by price rises which make them much more expensive. So additional measures would need to focus upon examples where use wasn't affected much by increasing energy prices. Private jets are one example. Owners may be able to afford the fuel whatever the price is.
<snip>
To some extent, yes - but the people doing that kind of consuming are much less price-sensitive than folk who already have to choose between heating and eating. Progressive energy pricing, where the price per unit increased per quantile of consumption or whatever, would target excessive consumption specifically, and generate money to spend on stuff like insulating and payments for the poorest. As would the immediate removal of subsidies. The impact of price increases is relative to one's disposable income, as Ivan points out, so to impact the consumption of the richest consumers you need to target them with greater price hikes, or just outright bans.

The UK may well experience lengthy blackouts during winter. https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/08/ ... blackouts/ Once again, that's a kind of enforced rationing applied indiscriminately. It might be sensible to find unnecessary and wasteful uses of energy and stop them in advance, so that everyone has the chance to live comfortably through the winter.
There's several different issues, the needs to:

a) decarbonize the UK and global economy;
b) ensure that the UK population has access to energy needed to sustain everyday life; and
c) prevent people becoming impoverished by high energy bills.

Those goals don't always align. For example, people switching from ICE to BEV vehicles puts greater demands upon the electricity supply. If the aim of government is to prevent people freezing over the winter then it might not want to encourage that because few UK homes are heated with oil (and none with petrol).

Similarly, the most effective way to avoid power cuts might be to have such high prices that people are forced to save energy. However, that strategy might lead to people being unable to afford food etc.

For domestic use of gas, the biggest uses are heating and cooking. You aren't going to save gas used for those purposes by banning patio heaters, as they burn propane and butane, and those two gasses are removed from natural gas before its piped into people's homes.

There is a big difference between controlling existing use and banning or rationing new purchases. The former will have by far the greatest effect, but is very difficult. The latter is much easier, but will have only a marginal effect upon usage ( I guess that less than10% of TVs in the UK have been purchased within a year).

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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:07 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:24 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:11 pm
Actually quite a few food prices have been rising higher than the background inflation+Brexit trend due to climate-related issues: wheat, corn, coffee, apples, chocolate, chillis, mustard and wine are mentioned here https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -shortages

Durum wheat was up long before the war because of drought https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/s ... -for-pasta

The climate crisis is the biggest single factor in rising food prices, in the UK and beyond.
A case can doubtless be made, but these articles don't really make it. Unfortunately there is too much in the way of anecdata and single bad years and specific varieties like durum or niche crops like mustard, which are only grown in limited places. A case involves trends over years and broader categories. Agricultural commodity prices have long been extremely sensitive to quite small changes in aggregate supply. So massive price changes from year to year for coffee due to bad weather in Brazil, cocoa due to civil war in Ivory Coast, wheat due to bad weather in Canada, etc, are nothing new.

And it's not very easy to do a proper job. If you look at global wheat production there is no evidence of a downward trend, rather the opposite, though plainly there are ups and downs. Doing a proper job involves thinking about land under production, productivity, population, etc.
You might enjoy this report from the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems http://www.ipes-food.org/pages/foodpricecrisis, reported on by the World Economic Forum here https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/ ... rd-levels/ (It was released in May this year, and obviously the record heatwaves, droughts, fires and floods over many of the world's most productive regions haven't helped matters at all).

As well as highlighting various economics things that are over my head, and noting the impact of fossil energy costs and therefore fertilizer, they state that:
Climate shocks are already afflicting agriculture regularly enough to create persistent vulnerability,
as well as injecting a permanent layer of uncertainty into global markets. The IPCC estimates
that climate change has reduced agricultural productivity growth by 21% since 1961, and by
up to 34% in Africa and Latin America. Key agricultural regions are currently facing the worst
droughts for decades, including in much of West Asia and North Africa, the Horn of Africa,
parts of Brazil and Argentina, and the North American Midwest. Unsustainable resource
management and extractive economic development strategies reinforce the likelihood of
conflict and leave countries more vulnerable to climate shocks, while climate change, in turn,
increases competition for land and resources and pushes people into poverty.
I also thought this was interesting in the WEF coverage:
The global shortage of cereals on export markets this year is expected to be 20-25 million tonnes - but if Europeans alone cut their consumption of animal products by 10%, they could reduce demand by 18-19 million tonnes, he noted.
The EU's sh.t new CAP is committing to continued subsidies for animal agriculture through to 2027 which is a clever example of joined-up thinking. Amazing to think that Meat-free Mondays in the developed world could be enough to relieve a global shortage of grain - brings home the enormous quantity of food wasted by keeping inedible bits of cows alive for years.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:15 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:57 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:25 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:31 am


As lpm would surely point out, these are all affected by price rises which make them much more expensive. So additional measures would need to focus upon examples where use wasn't affected much by increasing energy prices. Private jets are one example. Owners may be able to afford the fuel whatever the price is.
<snip>
To some extent, yes - but the people doing that kind of consuming are much less price-sensitive than folk who already have to choose between heating and eating. Progressive energy pricing, where the price per unit increased per quantile of consumption or whatever, would target excessive consumption specifically, and generate money to spend on stuff like insulating and payments for the poorest. As would the immediate removal of subsidies. The impact of price increases is relative to one's disposable income, as Ivan points out, so to impact the consumption of the richest consumers you need to target them with greater price hikes, or just outright bans.

The UK may well experience lengthy blackouts during winter. https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/08/ ... blackouts/ Once again, that's a kind of enforced rationing applied indiscriminately. It might be sensible to find unnecessary and wasteful uses of energy and stop them in advance, so that everyone has the chance to live comfortably through the winter.
There's several different issues, the needs to:

a) decarbonize the UK and global economy;
b) ensure that the UK population has access to energy needed to sustain everyday life; and
c) prevent people becoming impoverished by high energy bills.

Those goals don't always align. For example, people switching from ICE to BEV vehicles puts greater demands upon the electricity supply. If the aim of government is to prevent people freezing over the winter then it might not want to encourage that because few UK homes are heated with oil (and none with petrol).

Similarly, the most effective way to avoid power cuts might be to have such high prices that people are forced to save energy. However, that strategy might lead to people being unable to afford food etc.

For domestic use of gas, the biggest uses are heating and cooking. You aren't going to save gas used for those purposes by banning patio heaters, as they burn propane and butane, and those two gasses are removed from natural gas before its piped into people's homes.

There is a big difference between controlling existing use and banning or rationing new purchases. The former will have by far the greatest effect, but is very difficult. The latter is much easier, but will have only a marginal effect upon usage ( I guess that less than10% of TVs in the UK have been purchased within a year).
Yes, long-term thinking is definitely required here. But even as the forum's token eco-bore I don't see a way through the next 6 months without some temporary propping up of fossil energy use, because the alternative seems unacceptably nasty to me. It's the old "I wouldn't start from here" problem.

But progressive pricing would go some way to encourage rationing without hitting what might be considered essential use.

My list was partly tongue-in-cheek, to highlight types of energy use that are less essential than cooking and heating. I don't think that kind of technocratic tinkering would actually deliver the savings needed, but some kind of generalised flygskam against conspicuous energy wastage might be socially useful. (And at least in my extensive experience of UK patio heaters, they're largely electric heat bulbs pressed on demand in smoking areas, rather than those gas ones on charming continental terraces).
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Re: The cost of living

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:57 pm
Similarly, the most effective way to avoid power cuts might be to have such high prices that people are forced to save energy. However, that strategy might lead to people being unable to afford food etc.

For domestic use of gas, the biggest uses are heating and cooking. You aren't going to save gas used for those purposes by banning patio heaters, as they burn propane and butane, and those two gasses are removed from natural gas before its piped into people's homes.
One of the major issues seen in the US during winter power cuts (whether short due to storm damage to electricity lines, or longer similar to what happened in Texas the winter before last) is that people run petrol generators and propane heaters indoors, causing CO poisoning and fires. Similar problems are likely to happen in the UK if there are lengthy power cuts, at least for heating and maybe cooking (generators being much rarer beasts in the UK).

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Re: The cost of living

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:28 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:23 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:57 pm
Similarly, the most effective way to avoid power cuts might be to have such high prices that people are forced to save energy. However, that strategy might lead to people being unable to afford food etc.

For domestic use of gas, the biggest uses are heating and cooking. You aren't going to save gas used for those purposes by banning patio heaters, as they burn propane and butane, and those two gasses are removed from natural gas before its piped into people's homes.
One of the major issues seen in the US during winter power cuts (whether short due to storm damage to electricity lines, or longer similar to what happened in Texas the winter before last) is that people run petrol generators and propane heaters indoors, causing CO poisoning and fires. Similar problems are likely to happen in the UK if there are lengthy power cuts, at least for heating and maybe cooking (generators being much rarer beasts in the UK).
I agree. Not the UK but a German friend said that an acquaintance was convinced that gas supplies would be cut so they purchased a load of large canisters full of propane to store in their garage.

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Re: The cost of living

Post by discovolante » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:32 pm

I can think of a recent situation where the government has stepped in to financially support large sections of the population in a crisis, while in the meantime it developed a longer term strategy for dealing with the situation more effectively. Well, sort of.

But surely helping people be able to eat and heat and keep a roof over their heads for now is cheaper in the long run. Nearly everything that should be done should have been done f.cking ages ago but it hasn't, but maybe there will be more pressure to do it now. I had wondered if there was some really complicated important reason why all wholesale energy prices had to remain linked with gas prices but it seems there probably isn't?

And of course people should get paid more. We're striking and threatening strikes all over the place. The government does not give a flying f.ck about the actual impact on say, commuters, so isnt going to negotiate in any situations where it has the power to do so, but it does want to use the issue to 'clamp down' on the right to strike, so we need to watch that closely too.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:34 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:28 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:23 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:57 pm
Similarly, the most effective way to avoid power cuts might be to have such high prices that people are forced to save energy. However, that strategy might lead to people being unable to afford food etc.

For domestic use of gas, the biggest uses are heating and cooking. You aren't going to save gas used for those purposes by banning patio heaters, as they burn propane and butane, and those two gasses are removed from natural gas before its piped into people's homes.
One of the major issues seen in the US during winter power cuts (whether short due to storm damage to electricity lines, or longer similar to what happened in Texas the winter before last) is that people run petrol generators and propane heaters indoors, causing CO poisoning and fires. Similar problems are likely to happen in the UK if there are lengthy power cuts, at least for heating and maybe cooking (generators being much rarer beasts in the UK).
I agree. Not the UK but a German friend said that an acquaintance was convinced that gas supplies would be cut so they purchased a load of large canisters full of propane to store in their garage.
On the other hand, it's pretty easy to make a beer-can stove and burn up all that extra ethanol we hoarded during COVID.

I can boil water in <5 minutes on mine even when it's 5°C.

;)
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Re: The cost of living

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:35 pm

discovolante wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:32 pm
I can think of a recent situation where the government has stepped in to financially support large sections of the population in a crisis, while in the meantime it developed a longer term strategy for dealing with the situation more effectively. Well, sort of.

But surely helping people be able to eat and heat and keep a roof over their heads for now is cheaper in the long run. Nearly everything that should be done should have been done f.cking ages ago but it hasn't, but maybe there will be more pressure to do it now. I had wondered if there was some really complicated important reason why all wholesale energy prices had to remain linked with gas prices but it seems there probably isn't?

And of course people should get paid more. We're striking and threatening strikes all over the place. The government does not give a flying f.ck about the actual impact on say, commuters, so isnt going to negotiate in any situations where it has the power to do so, but it does want to use the issue to 'clamp down' on the right to strike, so we need to watch that closely too.
Oh for a world in which the climate crisis was treated with the same urgency covid was. And I say that in full awareness that many countries' covid responses were crap.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by IvanV » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:53 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:20 pm
As a society, for years we've been over-spending on consumer stuff. And under-saving on our pensions, elderly care, NHS investment, education investment, and of course renewables and future-climate infrastructure.

And I've also always bored you about the Age of Brittle and how we're not building resilience into our systems. By now we could have had self sufficient and decentralised energy production.

Ultimately, most people in the UK ran things too thin in terms of personal saving and personal redundancy. If people today can't cope with a nasty economic crisis, how the hell are they going to cope with the worsening climate breakdown coinciding with ageing populations needing far higher healthcare?

I'm pissed off that the instinctive response from the progressive/left is so childish. The LibDem and Labour proposals are even worse than Truss's. The idea that government should provide for us, down to paying our bills because we failed to save and invest, is pretty repulsive. If we as a society aren't going to get personally resilient, then govt should take money off us and use it to invest in the future. Not hand it back so we can carry on our lifestyles.

The answer is to give people respectable pay (and benefits for those not working), then leave them to it. Not constantly bail them out when they've not protected themselves.
You are rehearsing that common belief in the value of self-sufficiency that results in many lower income people voting Republican in the US. And personally I live that ethic. I don't want to rely on the government. I do worry about the government's ability to give out such good pensions as the population ages, and so don't trust them to be paying good money when maybe I'll hopefully still be needing it in 25 years' time. So I saved a lot from quite an early age, although initially in the form of paying down mortgage.

The fallacy is to translate that ethic into "income redistribution is bad". Another fallacy is to forget that high inequality is itself inherently bad for society. It leads to social exclusion and layered societies, and a whole bunch of social ills. Yet another fallacy is to think that the apparent improvidence of the poor is some stupidity they just need to fix.

Income inequality before tax and transfers is not unusually high in this country by the standards of NW Europe. Germany, for example, is similar. What is unusual in this country, for NW Europe, is our high inequality after tax and transfers are taken into account. Some countries do have rather lower pre-tax inequality, like the Nordic countries, and NL, and so don't have to redistribute so very much to achieve relatively good post-tax inequality. But it's very difficult to reshape society to achieve that, and I don't think anyone knows how to do that, starting with a country like Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain or France.

One thing to improve incomes at the bottom is clearly minimum wages. We have pushed up minimum wages quite a lot already, and there's only so far you can go before it starts to create its own problems, but maybe that hasn't gone far enough yet. But an important part of getting people to have respectable income, and reduce social inequality, is inevitably going to be redistribution. And relatively civilised places like Germany that have high pre-tax inequality like us, do more redistribution. Lots of places in Europe do more redistribution. Are they nations of cosseted improvident bums? I really doubt it. Redistribution is not bad.

As for the improvident poor, often it's really not their fault or stupidity. Sometimes such people would like to save, even very small amounts to avoid micro-borrowing for example. But they can't, because they are expected to support other less well-off members of their extended family. Worth reading that great book Poor Economics by Duflo and Banerjee to remember why the apparently self-defeating behaviour of the poor is often entirely explicable and not their fault.

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Re: The cost of living

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:55 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:34 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:28 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:23 pm


One of the major issues seen in the US during winter power cuts (whether short due to storm damage to electricity lines, or longer similar to what happened in Texas the winter before last) is that people run petrol generators and propane heaters indoors, causing CO poisoning and fires. Similar problems are likely to happen in the UK if there are lengthy power cuts, at least for heating and maybe cooking (generators being much rarer beasts in the UK).
I agree. Not the UK but a German friend said that an acquaintance was convinced that gas supplies would be cut so they purchased a load of large canisters full of propane to store in their garage.
On the other hand, it's pretty easy to make a beer-can stove and burn up all that extra ethanol we hoarded during COVID.

I can boil water in <5 minutes on mine even when it's 5°C.

;)
But see the roast dinners thread for why that's a bad idea in winter for heating...

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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 3:32 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:53 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:20 pm
As a society, for years we've been over-spending on consumer stuff. And under-saving on our pensions, elderly care, NHS investment, education investment, and of course renewables and future-climate infrastructure.

And I've also always bored you about the Age of Brittle and how we're not building resilience into our systems. By now we could have had self sufficient and decentralised energy production.

Ultimately, most people in the UK ran things too thin in terms of personal saving and personal redundancy. If people today can't cope with a nasty economic crisis, how the hell are they going to cope with the worsening climate breakdown coinciding with ageing populations needing far higher healthcare?

I'm pissed off that the instinctive response from the progressive/left is so childish. The LibDem and Labour proposals are even worse than Truss's. The idea that government should provide for us, down to paying our bills because we failed to save and invest, is pretty repulsive. If we as a society aren't going to get personally resilient, then govt should take money off us and use it to invest in the future. Not hand it back so we can carry on our lifestyles.

The answer is to give people respectable pay (and benefits for those not working), then leave them to it. Not constantly bail them out when they've not protected themselves.
You are rehearsing that common belief in the value of self-sufficiency that results in many lower income people voting Republican in the US. And personally I live that ethic. I don't want to rely on the government. I do worry about the government's ability to give out such good pensions as the population ages, and so don't trust them to be paying good money when maybe I'll hopefully still be needing it in 25 years' time. So I saved a lot from quite an early age, although initially in the form of paying down mortgage.

The fallacy is to translate that ethic into "income redistribution is bad". Another fallacy is to forget that high inequality is itself inherently bad for society. It leads to social exclusion and layered societies, and a whole bunch of social ills. Yet another fallacy is to think that the apparent improvidence of the poor is some stupidity they just need to fix.

Income inequality before tax and transfers is not unusually high in this country by the standards of NW Europe. Germany, for example, is similar. What is unusual in this country, for NW Europe, is our high inequality after tax and transfers are taken into account. Some countries do have rather lower pre-tax inequality, like the Nordic countries, and NL, and so don't have to redistribute so very much to achieve relatively good post-tax inequality. But it's very difficult to reshape society to achieve that, and I don't think anyone knows how to do that, starting with a country like Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain or France.

One thing to improve incomes at the bottom is clearly minimum wages. We have pushed up minimum wages quite a lot already, and there's only so far you can go before it starts to create its own problems, but maybe that hasn't gone far enough yet. But an important part of getting people to have respectable income, and reduce social inequality, is inevitably going to be redistribution. And relatively civilised places like Germany that have high pre-tax inequality like us, do more redistribution. Lots of places in Europe do more redistribution. Are they nations of cosseted improvident bums? I really doubt it. Redistribution is not bad.

As for the improvident poor, often it's really not their fault or stupidity. Sometimes such people would like to save, even very small amounts to avoid micro-borrowing for example. But they can't, because they are expected to support other less well-off members of their extended family. Worth reading that great book Poor Economics by Duflo and Banerjee to remember why the apparently self-defeating behaviour of the poor is often entirely explicable and not their fault.
WTF are you waffling on about now. Who here thinks "income redistribution is bad"?

The whole point is getting to self-sufficiency via respectable pay. The first part of my response to this crisis is to shove up minimum wage, benefits and pensions by 10%, along with public sector pay by 10% to push private sector pay in the same direction. The second part is to tackle inflation by reducing C via high interest rates and high taxes on the >£50k brackets.

We then take advantage of the very high energy prices to drive insulation and renewables into the UK infrastructure so that we're finally free of this particular trap, ahead of the various 2030 and 2050 type targets.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 3:47 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:52 pm
You can't just handwave away the fact that it is, as usual, the most vulnerable in society who are going to suffer. It's a choice as to whether you give a sh.t about people less fortunate than you, of course. But even if you don't, right now that's most of the electorate, so a politically popular strategy needs to acknowledge people's well-founded fears and do something to alleviate their cause.
I've never handwaved this away. I've always stressed that the vulnerable who are going to suffer and that this cost of living crisis is going to be awful. Particularly in the UK.

God knows how we'll determine how the excess mortality in the coming year is due to continuing Covid, how much is the collapse of the NHS, how much under heated homes and poor diet and mental health... And how much of a long term effect on health we'll see from the usual impact from poverty.

The trouble is, I've seen nothing proposed on here that gets an extra therm of gas into a pensioner's home. I'm happy with your tinkering, such as taxing the f.ck out of private planes and patio heaters, or banning them outright. But the shortage of gas - and hence electricity - doesn't get addressed by tinkering. It needs to be rationed and very high prices are the best way to do this. The Labour plan is directly counterproductive, encouraging the flow of gas into one's Aga and electricity to keep one's hot tub running, which inevitably leaves less gas for something else.

Under the BoaF plan where we need to:

a) decarbonize the UK and global economy;
b) ensure that the UK population has access to energy needed to sustain everyday life; and
c) prevent people becoming impoverished by high energy bills.

my policy achieves (b) and (c), with (a) following on in subsequent years.

The Labour plan says nothing about how (b) is achieved as the insufficient energy goes unrationed. It might help (c) by helping with the energy bills but leaves them impoverished by high food prices instead. And it is in direct opposition to (a).
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Re: The cost of living

Post by IvanV » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 3:32 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:20 pm
As a society, for years we've been over-spending on consumer stuff. And under-saving on our pensions, elderly care, NHS investment, education investment, and of course renewables and future-climate infrastructure.

And I've also always bored you about the Age of Brittle and how we're not building resilience into our systems. By now we could have had self sufficient and decentralised energy production.

Ultimately, most people in the UK ran things too thin in terms of personal saving and personal redundancy. If people today can't cope with a nasty economic crisis, how the hell are they going to cope with the worsening climate breakdown coinciding with ageing populations needing far higher healthcare?

I'm pissed off that the instinctive response from the progressive/left is so childish. The LibDem and Labour proposals are even worse than Truss's. The idea that government should provide for us, down to paying our bills because we failed to save and invest, is pretty repulsive. If we as a society aren't going to get personally resilient, then govt should take money off us and use it to invest in the future. Not hand it back so we can carry on our lifestyles.

The answer is to give people respectable pay (and benefits for those not working), then leave them to it. Not constantly bail them out when they've not protected themselves.
WTF are you waffling on about now. Who here thinks "income redistribution is bad"?
You did a very good imitation of it, enough to fool me. You seemed to be repeating the tropes of low-tax low-transfer advocates.You found "the idea that the government should provide for us... is repulsive". That's a common criticism of the government giving less well off people money, ie income redistribution. You said people should be self-sufficient financially. That's a common criticism of benefits. And like the low-tax low-transfer advocates your solution was better pay, apparently through the market paying better wages. So I was surprised, but I can only read what is in front of me.

I don't think your ideas for getting wages up will suffice to get to more continental levels of post-tax inequality, without also higher taxes and more redistribution. The lowest wages are in the private sector for things like retail, hospitality, cleaning, agri labour, etc, and are not sufficiently similar to main public sector trades for public sector wage increases to have much effect. Clearly minimum wage increases will have some effect. But to get inequality seriously down we need to substantially narrow the gap from median households to comfortably off households. That's the big difference in societies with lower inequality. And that's not going to be achieved without some more serious redistribution from the upper end.

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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:06 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:40 pm
It takes time to install insulation
This is basically incorrect.

It is incredibly fast to improve insulation and costs zero.

It takes approx 12 seconds to get a jumper out of the drawer and put it on. I suppose there is a tiny cost due to wear and tear, with the jumper needing replacing in a couple of years.

We really mustn't forget about the traditional ways of insulating that poor pensioners did during their decades of extreme poverty: heating one room, draft excluders at every window and door, dressing warmly, blankets on every lap, patchwork quilt on the bed. Plus the lighting and TV and heater in the room will be far more efficient than in the 1970s, when boilers were inefficient and gas fires bubbled away.

I really do think it's the rest of you who are downplaying this crisis, instinctively reaching for government action to maintain status quo behaviour.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:16 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:03 pm
You did a very good imitation of it, enough to fool me. You seemed to be repeating the tropes of low-tax low-transfer advocates.You found "the idea that the government should provide for us... is repulsive". That's a common criticism of the government giving less well off people money, ie income redistribution. You said people should be self-sufficient financially. That's a common criticism of benefits. And like the low-tax low-transfer advocates your solution was better pay, apparently through the market paying better wages. So I was surprised, but I can only read what is in front of me.
That's ludicrous.

I'm completely opposed to the existence of food banks and government subsidising a household's fossil fuel burning. The root problem is that people are not self-sufficient financially and that is what has to change. Sufficient benefits need to be given in £, not in food bank handouts, and coping with 10% inflation should be via people in the lower deciles getting 10% higher income.

The rest of you are doing the right wing thing of believing the poor shouldn't get more money, because they won't spend it "properly", and they should be given handouts of food and cheap energy instead.
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Re: The cost of living

Post by IvanV » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:39 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:16 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:03 pm
You did a very good imitation of it, enough to fool me. You seemed to be repeating the tropes of low-tax low-transfer advocates.You found "the idea that the government should provide for us... is repulsive". That's a common criticism of the government giving less well off people money, ie income redistribution. You said people should be self-sufficient financially. That's a common criticism of benefits. And like the low-tax low-transfer advocates your solution was better pay, apparently through the market paying better wages. So I was surprised, but I can only read what is in front of me.
That's ludicrous.

I'm completely opposed to the existence of food banks and government subsidising a household's fossil fuel burning. The root problem is that people are not self-sufficient financially and that is what has to change. Sufficient benefits need to be given in £, not in food bank handouts, and coping with 10% inflation should be via people in the lower deciles getting 10% higher income.
So we are actually very much in agreement, and I'm not sure why we are arguing, apart from incomprehension over our different ways of putting it.

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Re: The cost of living

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:42 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:06 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:40 pm
It takes time to install insulation
This is basically incorrect.

It is incredibly fast to improve insulation and costs zero.

It takes approx 12 seconds to get a jumper out of the drawer and put it on. I suppose there is a tiny cost due to wear and tear, with the jumper needing replacing in a couple of years.

We really mustn't forget about the traditional ways of insulating that poor pensioners did during their decades of extreme poverty: heating one room, draft excluders at every window and door, dressing warmly, blankets on every lap, patchwork quilt on the bed. Plus the lighting and TV and heater in the room will be far more efficient than in the 1970s, when boilers were inefficient and gas fires bubbled away.

I really do think it's the rest of you who are downplaying this crisis, instinctively reaching for government action to maintain status quo behaviour.
Why are you here if you are just going to be ridiculous?

Meanwhile, perhaps you could assess how long it takes to save up for, get quotes on, schedule, and actually get e.g. cavity wall insulation or non-drafty windows installed? Even if all salaries went up 25% tomorrow?

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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:02 pm

You're being a clown now dyqik.

Let's get personal. Who here is:

- going to get cavity wall insulation or double glazing before the coming winter?
- going to get fibre insulation and shove it in the loft?
- going to do no projects of this kind, but plans to cut gas and electricity consumption via behaviour changes?
- not going to cut consumption at all and will just pay the extra?

And more pertinently, if gas and electricity prices were frozen at current levels - as per Labour's plan - who here would not bother with any of these plans, or would do less of the behavioural changes?
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Re: The cost of living

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:08 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:02 pm
Let's get personal. Who here is:

- going to get cavity wall insulation or double glazing before the coming winter?
- going to get fibre insulation and shove it in the loft?
- going to do no projects of this kind, but plans to cut gas and electricity consumption via behaviour changes?
- not going to cut consumption at all and will just pay the extra?

And more pertinently, if gas and electricity prices were frozen at current levels - as per Labour's plan - who here would not bother with any of these plans, or would do less of the behavioural changes?
This is sort of making my point.

You can either subsidize energy prices this winter as well as subsidizing insulation and other energy conservation measures, or you can let people freeze, and make insulation and energy conservation measures less affordable. Money is fungible - if people have to pay more to heat their houses due to high fossil fuel energy prices, they will be less able to afford to insulate their houses. . The people most in need of support for fuel prices are the least able to afford to take the other measures to reduce fuel usage.

Have you checked the current supply chain for e.g. fiber loft insulation? How much of it is available to purchase right now, if people want to take the quickest option for insulating their home (I have no idea, by the way)? How many renters can use that option?

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Re: The cost of living

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:20 pm

You're missing the fact that half households are above median incomes. Insulation is easily affordable for millions. But these millions are less likely to bother when fossil fuel burning is heavily subsidised.

We need them to bother.

Insulate Britain is only needed for market failure - govt intervention to get those tricky places done.
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