The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

A few months back some people were suggesting that the oligarchs would get rid of Putin if the war went badly. This is part of the explanation why not:

The chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia’s biggest privately held oil producer and one of the few Russian companies to criticize the invasion of Ukraine, has died after falling out of a hospital window

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15 ... XA-vVxJG4Q

He joins a long list of other prominent businessmen who have died in accidents or apparent suicide.

[lpm]

I wonder if there's a dedicated handful of experts who do all the falling-out-of-window chores. Or if it's part of general duties for everyone. When you join Putin's Graduate Training Program you have to your way up, from helping people fall out of lower floor windows to proper upper floor work, hoping for promotion to skyscrapers eventually.

[Grumble]

Russian building codes re. windows seem a bit lax

[Woodchopper]

I wonder if there's a dedicated handful of experts who do all the falling-out-of-window chores. Or if it's part of general duties for everyone. When you join Putin's Graduate Training Program you have to your way up, from helping people fall out of lower floor windows to proper upper floor work, hoping for promotion to skyscrapers eventually.

Perhaps the defenestration team has its own logo and performance indicators.

[Gfamily]

I wonder if there's a dedicated handful of experts who do all the falling-out-of-window chores. Or if it's part of general duties for everyone. When you join Putin's Graduate Training Program you have to your way up, from helping people fall out of lower floor windows to proper upper floor work, hoping for promotion to skyscrapers eventually.

Perhaps the defenestration team has its own logo and performance indicators.

And a long service sash after 20 years

[jimbob]

I wonder if there's a dedicated handful of experts who do all the falling-out-of-window chores. Or if it's part of general duties for everyone. When you join Putin's Graduate Training Program you have to your way up, from helping people fall out of lower floor windows to proper upper floor work, hoping for promotion to skyscrapers eventually.

Perhaps the defenestration team has its own logo and performance indicators.

And a long service sash after 20 years

Oh dear

[dyqik]

I wonder if there's a dedicated handful of experts who do all the falling-out-of-window chores. Or if it's part of general duties for everyone. When you join Putin's Graduate Training Program you have to your way up, from helping people fall out of lower floor windows to proper upper floor work, hoping for promotion to skyscrapers eventually.

Perhaps the defenestration team has its own logo and performance indicators.

And a long service sash after 20 years

I'm just wondering how to force a joke about double hung into this. Either as an extra certain execution method or the other meaning.

[tenchboy]

If the windows in your building are insufficient, they have a mobile unit to bring their own.
The time to worry is when they turn up outside your house in their dormermobile.

[IvanV]

A few months back some people were suggesting that the oligarchs would get rid of Putin if the war went badly. This is part of the explanation why not:

The chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia’s biggest privately held oil producer and one of the few Russian companies to criticize the invasion of Ukraine, has died after falling out of a hospital window

As well as taming the oligarchs by such measures, Putin came from and controls the enforcement organs of the state, which seem to be very closely lined up behind him. These enforcement structures are the very large obstacle for any alternative influence group to try and replace the rulers of a strongly held authoritarian state. In-fighting is common in authoritarian power structures. But powerful rulers can eventually consolidate their control by ensuring that all the key people below them are individually beholden to them, and by obtaining thorough control of the enforcement structures to prevent any kind of break-out of dissent before it expands. They become exceedingly hard to displace. When you are so powerfully in control, you can get away with a lot, as Stalin, Mao, the Kims, MbS, Maduro, etc, have demonstrated.

There seem to be no signs of in-fighting in the power structures of Russia at the moment.

[TimW]

Russian official explains to UN inspectors at Zaporizhzhia how this Ukranian missile did a 180 turn before impact to make it look like it had been launched from Russian-occupied territory:

Uey.jpg (241.81 KiB) Viewed 1365 times

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... orizhzhia/

[EACLucifer]

Russian official explains to UN inspectors at Zaporizhzhia how this Ukranian missile did a 180 turn before impact to make it look like it had been launched from Russian-occupied territory:
Uey.jpg
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... orizhzhia/

There are missiles that can do that. They GL-SDB, for example, would be able to do that to target positions behind buildings or hills. This, however, is a carrier rocket for cluster munitions, either the 220mm from the Uragan, or the 300mm from the Smerch. It lacks any guidance system. Suffice to say, it cannot turn in the air and go back the way it came even a little bit.

[headshot]

Russian official explains to UN inspectors at Zaporizhzhia how this Ukranian missile did a 180 turn before impact to make it look like it had been launched from Russian-occupied territory:
Uey.jpg
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... orizhzhia/

There are missiles that can do that. They GL-SDB, for example, would be able to do that to target positions behind buildings or hills. This, however, is a carrier rocket for cluster munitions, either the 220mm from the Uragan, or the 300mm from the Smerch. It lacks any guidance system. Suffice to say, it cannot turn in the air and go back the way it came even a little bit.

There was a sudden gust of wind...

[jimbob]

possibly related to the war

https://www.rferl.org/a/chechnya-kadyro ... 17103.html

Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region, said on Telegram on September 3 that he plans to take an “indefinite and long” break from his post.

Kadyrov, 45, has ruled Chechnya with an iron fist since 2007 and is the longest-serving leader of a Russian region.

“I realized that I have been sitting in my position for a long time,” he wrote. “I think my time has come [to leave power]."

[FlammableFlower]

Maybe attempting to go into hiding (with lots of money and protection) having come to the realisation that just maybe Putin and Russia can't keep him safe in his dictatorial warlordness?

[TopBadger]

Kadyrov's statement surely throws some lateral shade at Putin - who has been in power longer.

That's the thing about dictatorships though - they don't seem to come with a retirement plan. As several oligarchs are finding, there isn't a foolproof way to 'cash in your chips' without the threat of whichever bastard comes after you nicking it all and/or bumping you off. You'd think the majority of the wealthy in Russia would prefer a US style government where you can be very wealthy and also be safe at the same time. They're not going to get that with Putin 2.0.

[Woodchopper]

I'm not sure we should take it too seriously.

Dictators don't get to retire. Their successor doesn't want a rival and will get rid of them. Kadyrov would just fall out of a window like all the others.

But they do like to pretend that they'll retire. It encourages lots of people to beg them to stay on.

One exception could be if Putin wants him to move to Moscow and do something more important (and more protected).

[IvanV]

Dictators don't get to retire. Their successor doesn't want a rival and will get rid of them. Kadyrov would just fall out of a window like all the others.

Indeed much more often they are overthrown or die in office. Some of the overthrown managed to escape to a long life in exile, like Idi Amin. Emperor Bokassa of CAR seemed to have a nice life in Paris after his overthrow, and it's not clear to me why he returned home to be thrown in prison. Similarly Fujimori of Peru. But a few have handed over government peacefully and carried on with a quiet life, at least for a while.

Several Chinese emperors after Mao retired to a quiet life - Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao. Though the present emperor Xi Jinping may choose not to, it appears, and seems to have consolidated enough power to get his will. Though we are still waiting for that great assembly that will confirm it.

Than Shwe of Myanmar resigned after 19 years as military ruler, handing over to Thein Sein, who ruled for 5 years until they decided to hold elections. They both continue to be free and wealthy within Myanmar, and influential in the Burmese military. 5 years after Thein Sein handed over to an elected leader, the Burmese military restored its rule in a coup.

Augusto Pinochet of Chile managed to live a quiet and comfortable life for several years in Chile, after deciding to hold an election he failed to rig, until he made the mistake of coming to Britain for medical treatment.

Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan retired in 2019, and has since been stripped of his influential I'm-the-power-behind-the-throne positions by his successor Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He seems to carry on in quiet retirement, and the formal capital city is still named after him.

King Sultan of Saudi Arabia has apparently retired, while still being king, by putting his preferred, and even more despotic, son in charge.

[Martin_B]

... As several oligarchs are finding, there isn't a foolproof way to 'cash in your chips' without the threat of whichever bastard comes after you nicking it all and/or bumping you off. You'd think the majority of the wealthy in Russia would prefer a US style government where you can be very wealthy and also be safe at the same time. They're not going to get that with Putin 2.0.

The plan of most of the oligarchs was to get their money (and preferably themselves) outside of Russia so that their successor couldn't take it all off them. Things like buying football clubs or super yachts. Worked pretty until Putin invaded Ukraine (even invading Crimea didn't cause sanctions).

[Woodchopper]

Declassified US intelligence says Russia is turning to North Korea to buy millions artillery shells and rockets—raising questions about the ability of Russia to supply its army.

https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/status ... mEhkMF-qZg

Not a big surprise given how much Russia is using. Even the US had to source foreign ammunition supplies during the Iraq war.

North Korea will be able to supply a lot of volume. But maybe not such high quality.

[TopBadger]

North Korea will be able to supply a lot of volume. But maybe not such high quality.

Each shell will be an interesting variation on Danny Baker's Sausage Sandwich Game...

Does it explode in storage?
Does it explode on target?
Or doesn't it explode at all?

[bjn]

Interesting look at the economics of the war so far and how it might turn out from the Perun guy (who is a military capability planner/economist type person).

TL:DR Russia is coping with the sanction at the moment, but only just. Europe will have a difficult winter or two. Europe + USA are stonkingly rich and can keep this up indefinitely. Russia has completely f.cked themselves as a resource supplier long term.

[Woodchopper]

Good thread on European security politics and how France and Germany are viewed by the central, eastern and northern Europeans. https://twitter.com/minna_alander/statu ... WV4-kBa0bw

[Woodchopper]

Declassified US intelligence says Russia is turning to North Korea to buy millions artillery shells and rockets—raising questions about the ability of Russia to supply its army.

https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/status ... mEhkMF-qZg

Not a big surprise given how much Russia is using. Even the US had to source foreign ammunition supplies during the Iraq war.

North Korea will be able to supply a lot of volume. But maybe not such high quality.

Thread on this: https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status ... XB8bhklIHw

[TimW]

Interesting look at the economics of the war so far and how it might turn out from the Perun guy (who is a military capability planner/economist type person).

TL:DR Russia is coping with the sanction at the moment, but only just. Europe will have a difficult winter or two. Europe + USA are stonkingly rich and can keep this up indefinitely. Russia has completely f.cked themselves as a resource supplier long term.

Cheers.

[FlammableFlower]

Interesting look at the economics of the war so far and how it might turn out from the Perun guy (who is a military capability planner/economist type person).

TL:DR Russia is coping with the sanction at the moment, but only just. Europe will have a difficult winter or two. Europe + USA are stonkingly rich and can keep this up indefinitely. Russia has completely f.cked themselves as a resource supplier long term.

He's done quite a few very in-depth videos on different aspects. Very thorough and interesting.